Fat Tony

I have been critical of Lewis's three-year deal and I stand by the view that it was too long a contract given his age. I have set a benchmark of 50 games at current output to grade it a success. In saying this, Lewis played well over the last month and he was one of our better players against Collingwood, particularly in the second half. I still think the signs are there that he is near the end, particularly his ability to pick up the ground ball, but I hope I am wrong.

It seems that way, but it could also be happenstance. Frost was injured early in the year. Then OMac went out of form and Gawn and Spencer got injured and Hogan ill, meaning that TMac had to ruck. Then Frost's form deteriorated in the difficult conditions. The other point you have raised is how OMac, TMac, Lever an Hibberd fit together. Hibberd is essentially playing the same role as Lever and arguably is better. Personally, I think we need a quality outside midfielder more so, but I get the attraction for Lever given his age and ability.

When did Alex Rance become a star? He also had fundamental skill issues until he was about 23, which is the same age as Frost. Liam Jones took until 26 to come good. Ted Richards is another example of a late bloomer. Jeremy McGovern did not get a game until he was 22. Just because Frost struggles at times with his skills, doesn't mean he won't improve.

I understand your argument against playing all three, but I feel that it is not cut and dry. The two issues with playing a tall backline I see are 1) chemistry - particularly knowing when and when not to fly; and 2) ensuring there is enough pace and skill when we have the ball. The first issue was a big problem against Hawthorn, particularly after McEvoy took a big mark. Everyone wanted to go up to spoil and it ended up costing us the game. Still, I think this problem can resolve itself through all three playing together more often. The second issue is really a skill issue given the athleticism of TMac, OMac and Frost. Frost and TMac are clearly athletic enough to play on smaller opponents and Oscar played very well on Dickson against the Bulldogs. I agree skill is a problem here, but I also note that the best sides in the competition have big forward lines. Adelaide have Walker, Jenkins, McGovern and Lynch. GWS will possibly go with Cameron, Patton and Lobb. Sydney have Buddy, Reid and Tippett or Sinclair. We need to have a set up to match this.

I like Frost. His closing speed and length make him a valuable defender and his athleticism means he can break the game open when we have the ball. He had a bad month with his skills and that is why he is out of the team now. But I also think he has suffered from us playing in difficult conditions in Darwin, Hobart and Canberra. I also am not of the view that we cannot play all three of Oscar, TMac and Frost in the backline. Defensively I think they are athletic enough to play on smaller opponents, particularly in a zone set up. I think we lose a bit of skill down back, but we could shift Hunt up to a wing to compensate. I also think Oscar's kicking and decision making is underrated by being Tom's brother. I see his issues being more intensity and strength related. This is not to say we should not go for Lever, because he is obviously a young gun. But he is definitely not a need IMO and I am unsure if giving up Frost and high picks is a huge win.

That's the John Ralph quote.

The figure was an estimate, but it could easily be more if the contract had an inbuilt CBA uplift. Everything I have read suggests it's a 3 year deal.

This is the crux of it for me. Lewis has had a good solid year and he has earned his salary in 2017. But the signs are there that he is struggling badly with the ground ball and that his reflexes are getting slower. While he has never been quick, the game is also speeding up every year. His return to form over the last two weeks is encouraging, but let's see how he goes next year and the year after before we call it a success. I am not saying Lewis's recruitment is a failure, but I am of the view that he needs to play 50 games at current output to justify the circa $1.5 million in salary cap space that he is owed.

Scoop McClure said Billings was set to announce a new deal with St Kilda very soon on SEN this morning.

I think Wells and Lewis will both be well and truly finished before three years. I hope I am proven wrong on Lewis, but I wouldn't call his recruitment a success unless he plays 50 AFL games for us given the money he is on. And, Jnr, you only back the footy department when you agree with them. You have been ultra critical of the selection of Oscar McDonald. I am backing the footy department on that call.

Lewis has played well in the last two weeks, but I still think giving him a three-year contract was a mistake. The footy world has been highly critical of Collingwood’s decision to give Wells three years on similar money, but I see strong similarities with Lewis and Melbourne. While Lewis has had more impact this season, we need to assess both deals in 2019.

Adelaide play Essendon and we want the Crows to win.

We don't have much option this year but to back in Oscar McDonald and Frost. Tom McDonald is needed up forward, particularly with Hogan out injured. I am optimistic that both Weideman and Oscar McDonald will be better again next year, but I am not against bringing in high quality key position players. In saying this, I am not in favour of recruiting in depth key position players like Jackson Trengove or Sam Reid.

Lewis is cooked IMO. He makes too many skill errors for a player of his pace. And his ability to pick up the ground ball is just about the worst in the AFL.

The opening post is on point in that we have obviously had an issue stopping the key forwards this year. But the real question is if we need to recruit in outside players at the end of the year or stay the course. The coaches have clearly put their faith in Oscar McDonald and believe he will develop into a 200 game defender. I think he has shown enough that he will make it as a player, but while I think he will be better again in 2018, he needs to put on size and I am not sure we won’t be having similar conversations again next season. Also, we need to factor in Weideman into our thinking. If Weideman can develop into a good AFL forward, Tom McDonald will be able to switch back to defence because a forward line of Hogan, Weideman, Watts and Tom McDonald would be too tall. Would we be having this discussion if Tom McDonald played in defence all season? I doubt it. In saying all this, I would still target Lever because he is such a good prospect and because clubs generally can get out of contract players for unders. However, I think both Oscar McDonald and Weideman will develop into AFL players and they probably need to play at the AFL level to get there, so I am not in the camp that says we are desperate to recruit a key defender.

I would love to bring in Lever at the right price, he looks like being a star of the game for a decade, but I hate ProDee's solution of trading Frost. I think his athleticism is exceptional and he can provide both great run from defence and great pressure. At 23 and only 50 odd AFL games, he is already a very good AFL player and could develop even further. I think a backline including a developed Oscar McDonald, Frost and Lever would be very strong. (With Tom McDonald as a forward/swingman.) However, personally I think our greatest need is outside class and pace in the midfield.

I think Lewis is almost finished. He fumbles too often and misses too many easy kicks for a player of his pace. I hope I am wrong.

Trengove is only average though and is no better than Tom McDonald or Frost. While I think the need for a key defender is overstated by our injuries, Lever is quality and the one we want.

Further to this, I think a benchmark for Lewis is Daniel Cross, who played two great years for us, averaging 22 possessions and over 4 tackles. He cost us a similar amount to Lewis in draft picks, but much less salary cap space and years. While Lewis is a more damaging kick than Cross, he looks to be showing his age much more, with poor defensive efforts and trouble bending over once the ball hits the deck.

Personally, I think Lewis needs to lift his game a bit for the trade to be justified. Lewis is taking up a big chunk of salary cap space and is on a three-year deal. At the moment Lewis is still reading the play very well, but he is making too many mistakes in marking/receiving, disposal and picking up the ground ball for a player of his pace. He is also a poor pressure player. Hopefully he is just out of form, but he was definitely showing his age on Monday. I like seeing him played as a loose defender, but this is not a position we will always want, or as a defender on a slow forward. I feel he needs to also find a role other than this.

Trengove is a similar but inferior player to Tom McDonald IMO.

He will definitely cost a first round pick. PS Supercoach points are not perfect but they are probably the best single data point indicator of output IMO.

Obviously it would be great to add a player with both pace and skill, but personally I think we need leg speed in the midfield more to compliment Lewis, Tyson, Jones, Viney, Oliver, Salem etc. The other point I would make on Zak Jones is that he is behind only Oliver, Nathan Jones, Hibberd, Pederson, Viney, Lewis and Harmes in terms of average ranking points per game at Melbourne and behind only Oliver, Nathan Jones and Viney in total ranking points. He would be a great get IMO given the cost and his age.

Our defence has been very unsettled this year due to the injuries and suspensions of Gawn and Hogan. I doubt we would think this is our major problem if we had have played with Tom McDonald and Frost as our key defenders every week and with Gawn coming back to help out. While Frost and Tom McDonald are not good kicks, IMO both are decent defensively in the air and they are both extremely athletic which makes them hard to beat on the ground. Clearly Oscar isn't up to AFL yet, but he has some good attributes - height, elite endurance and decent natural skill level. He plays golf off a handicap of 3 and is a better kick than his brother. He times his spoils fairly well also. He mostly lacks strength and intensity and his decision making is poor, all of which is common for young key position players. This is not saying we shouldn't go after May, but he is a player in hot demand and will cost a lot in salary and picks. Personally, I feel we could add to our team in other areas at less cost. The other point I would make is that two key defenders is enough with Gawn in the side IMO.

Stretch does not have the explosive pace or toughness that Zak Jones has. While Stretch has better decision making and kicking than Jones, I feel he is actually slow for an outside midfielder (and about average pace versus the entire AFL pool.) I hope Stretch becomes a better player than Jones and think he will have a decent AFL career. But Jones, at 22, is already ranked 67th in the total competition for Supercoach ranking points and 101st for average Supercoach ranking points. He is also 8th in the competition for average running bounces, equal with Jayden Hunt.