Fat Tony

I think Oscar McDonald was struggling at the end yesterday with his hip and is the most likely omission for a ruckman, probably Spencer. Gawn has missed 10 weeks, so he could benefit from a run in the VFL where his minutes can be managed. It sounds like Hogan needs at least another week. Wagner and JKH could come in to provide some fresh legs given the short turnaround. Neal-Bullen was ordinary in the heat of the game. Lewis looked past it. Bugg hurt his arm but wouldn't be dropped on form (although it would be better if he kicked the easy goals in front!) Assuming everyone other than Oscar McDonald is fit, I would go with Neal-Bullen and Oscar McDonald out for Kennedy-Harris and Spencer.

Two stats which stood out to me were Oliver's kicks to handballs ratio (15 and 11). Hunt also played a very good game and had over 750m gained. I had Grundy and Sidebottom as the best two players on the ground.

Unfortunately the days of full forwards like Jakovich and Ablett Snr are in the past unless they bring in zones. Petracca is really playing as a lead up CHF at the moment and will probably increase his time in the midfield over time. He struggled for a few weeks leading into the bye, so it was great to see him move better yesterday. I think he will end up the best player in the competition, but as a 60% midfielder. He is great to watch.

Huge win for us given the ladder. We play the pies again in round 23 so hopefully they are out of contention by then and that becomes an easier game for us. This could have been a genuine 8 point game. It was a great win given I thought Collingwood were as good as any opposition we have faced this season. They have a very strong midfield and kicked very well for goal (10.1 in the first half). The key to our turnaround was the centre clearances in the third quarter, which they killed us in in the first half. We were also lucky with the umpires in the last five minutes. I thought Jeff Garlett was our best. Going forward, Hogan and Gawn will obviously be huge inclusions and will completely change the structure of our side for the better.

Gunstan would be a great pick up IMO. He is a very good player who can play tall and small and he would fit into any forward structure.

In a way, Melksham adds some balance to our handball happy midfield. I still think he will be a better player for us than most on Demonland. I expect him to have a lose tagging role on Sidebottom this week.

IMO the game is moving past the need for a second ruckman. Richmond are currently winning games with Caddy as the second tall forward along with Riewoldt. The Bulldogs have been using Dunkley and Jong as the second ruck at times this year. I heard the Foxfooty commentators the other day discussing if the Giants will be able to play a forward line of Patton, Lobb and Cameron and the general view was that it was too tall. It seems that maintaining manic tackling pressure is more important than winning hit outs or being a chance to take two contested marks per game. And Tippet is not a tackler, so it is a no from me. Personally, I feel that Watts and Pederson are better forwards in the modern game and that they can do a reasonable job in the ruck as relief for Gawn.

I am not sure who is the biggest winner out of the immediate uplift in the salary cap. A club like Sydney which has pressure on its cap? Or a club like St Kilda, who already had money to spend prior to the uplift? I guess it will help the clubs with salary cap pressures like Sydney more.

Trengove is a similar but inferior player to Tom McDonald IMO.

He will definitely cost a first round pick. PS Supercoach points are not perfect but they are probably the best single data point indicator of output IMO.

Obviously it would be great to add a player with both pace and skill, but personally I think we need leg speed in the midfield more to compliment Lewis, Tyson, Jones, Viney, Oliver, Salem etc. The other point I would make on Zak Jones is that he is behind only Oliver, Nathan Jones, Hibberd, Pederson, Viney, Lewis and Harmes in terms of average ranking points per game at Melbourne and behind only Oliver, Nathan Jones and Viney in total ranking points. He would be a great get IMO given the cost and his age.

Our defence has been very unsettled this year due to the injuries and suspensions of Gawn and Hogan. I doubt we would think this is our major problem if we had have played with Tom McDonald and Frost as our key defenders every week and with Gawn coming back to help out. While Frost and Tom McDonald are not good kicks, IMO both are decent defensively in the air and they are both extremely athletic which makes them hard to beat on the ground. Clearly Oscar isn't up to AFL yet, but he has some good attributes - height, elite endurance and decent natural skill level. He plays golf off a handicap of 3 and is a better kick than his brother. He times his spoils fairly well also. He mostly lacks strength and intensity and his decision making is poor, all of which is common for young key position players. This is not saying we shouldn't go after May, but he is a player in hot demand and will cost a lot in salary and picks. Personally, I feel we could add to our team in other areas at less cost. The other point I would make is that two key defenders is enough with Gawn in the side IMO.

Stretch does not have the explosive pace or toughness that Zak Jones has. While Stretch has better decision making and kicking than Jones, I feel he is actually slow for an outside midfielder (and about average pace versus the entire AFL pool.) I hope Stretch becomes a better player than Jones and think he will have a decent AFL career. But Jones, at 22, is already ranked 67th in the total competition for Supercoach ranking points and 101st for average Supercoach ranking points. He is also 8th in the competition for average running bounces, equal with Jayden Hunt.

So is Oscar McDonald at the moment.

I will wait until the VFL to provide my full ins and outs, but Oscar McDonald has been poor in the last two weeks and needs to go back to the VFL. Depending on the availability of Hogan and Spencer, Keilty would have to come into consideration if he has a good game in the VFL this week. And as good as Tom McDonald was in the game against Adelaide, he doesn't have the tricks to play as a permanent forward. Salem is an automatic in.

Our game plan was poor in the first quarter given the conditions and our defence pushed way too far up the ground into the wind. The second quarter was disappointing from an execution point of view, with our forwards not converting in front of goals and our gifting up of easy goals. In the third quarter we started to dominated once the wind stopped against an insipid side and it turned into a procession. While Watts finished the game well, his first half was terrible and he needs to go harder at the contest. Oscar McDonald has had two terrible weeks and needs to go back to the VFL. He let the ball over the back way too many times. Hannan continues to show a lot of promise. Harmes also had a good game. Other than his awful miss in the first quarter, Neal Bullen played another good game and has really progressed this year. Jones played a wonderful game and his kicking was a standout. Lewis was poor until the wind dropped and I wonder if he actually has three years in him. Pedersen was again very good. Hibberd was very good again. Frost was shaky and Tom Lynch had the better of him IMO but did not get enough supply. Garlett was good, but wasted a few chances and should have kicked 8. Melksham played a good game and added some balance to our handball happy midfield.

Our total first quarters this year have been 157 points for to 253 points against and are a real problem. As much as you will hear that it is “between the ears” and that we were “not switched on”, my theory is that it is to do more with our game style. The way I interpret our game plan is that it is to control the ball at the stoppage going backwards by handball until we can hit up a short kick. This usually costs us a good 50 meters in territory from the initial stoppage and requires a good half a dozen handballs. The other key tenant to our game plan is being bold in going for kicks into the centre corridor trying to pinpoint through the oppositions zone. Both strategies are sound if our skills are good enough but are coming unstuck early in the game when the opposition pressure is high. IMO we should be much more willing to kick to a contest early in the game, particularly out of stoppages, but also down the line from defence. Then once the game has opened up and the opposition pressure on the ball reduces, we can revert to try and play our “Fearless Footy” style.

May is from Darwin. I know he went to Melbourne Grammar, but I don't think the pull to Victoria is not a key factor.

It is going to be 29 on Saturday, so I would be looking to inject some extra run into the side. Harmes, Neal-Bullen, Melksham and Stretch will all come into consideration. Melksham is first cab off the rank based on VFL form and I would swap him for Salem. Harmes was stiff to be dropped in the first place and I would swap him for Wagner who has been disappointing IMO. This may leave our defence undersized if Tom McDonald needs to go into the ruck, but so be it. Neal-Bullen comes in for Weideman. While I am reluctant to drop Weideman due to our lack of height, I feel he isn’t offering anything up forward, so I would rather go with another runner. Stretch for Bugg or Kent is also worth considering (or not).

I am not against going for Lever or May but overall I feel our list is actually reasonably well balanced and that a key defender is not as big a requirement as other Demonlanders. (If anything, I think we really lack some class and pace on the outside of the midfield, with Bugg and Stretch not providing sufficient line breaking ability we need.) So, for me it all comes down to price in terms of picks and contract. While Oscar McDonald is struggling against strong key forwards, he is still developing and he will get stronger and increase his intensity in the contest with age and experience. I predict he will develop into a pretty good player over the next two years, but I admit there is a wide range of possible outcomes and it might not be by 2018. IMO our difficulties in defence this season have been due in part to Gawn getting injured (and Spencer) and not having a tall ruckman coming back into the back 50 to contest in the air. At the same time, we have also had our key position (and tall flanker) depth tested severely, with Garland, Joel Smith, Hogan, Frost, Hibberd, Lumumba, Hogan, Tim Smith and Vandenberg all missing games or retired. Pedersen also had a limited preseason. With all the injuries, Tom McDonald, who has been the linchpin of our defence over recent years, has been used in the ruck and up forward. Thus, with Gawn and Spencer out, and Tom McDonald shifted, we haven’t really had a true sample of games to assess our defence. The other point I would make is that the Bulldogs won the flag last year with Hamling, Roberts and Morris as their key defenders. While they had a great finals series, Hamling and Roberts were no name players until after they won the premiership and Morris was a 190cm injury riddled, 33 year old. With a good game plan and a strong midfield, key defenders are not that important to being a successful side.

We would need to get on a roll to make top 4 to be any chance IMO. GWS, Adelaide, Port Adelaide and West Coast are well all positioned to finish top 4 and I don't like the prospect of needing to win two cut throat finals on the road.

I wonder if Gawn will come straight back into the AFL. He is probably our most important player, but given the injury and his role as a ruckman, it would not surprise me if he needs a game or two in the VFL.

Wagner has been disappointing since returning to the AFL side IMO. He has been a touch slow, his disposal has been inconsistent and he is going up for marking contests unnecessarily at times. He will probably get another chance based on the height in North's forward line, but it could depend on the role of Tom McDonald this week. I would be surprised if Hunt plays and would see Melksham as his likely replacement. While I am not really a fan, I think ANB was stiff to be dropped and could easily replace Hannan or Kent. Likewise Harmes.

Weideman competed and tackled well but will have to make way if Hogan returns. Hunt is in serious doubt. Melksham would be next in line on last week's performance but if someone plays well today the could also be promoted. Wagner was very poor with his disposal and looks a bit slow and Hannan was very quiet. I would probably retain both but IMO Wagner only stays in due to the height of North's forward line.

TMac, Frost, Wagner and Hibberd is enough height in the back half IMO and we need to get some extra kicking skill there. The reason OMac was brought back was so TMac could do some rucking, but I think that plan was shelved at half time against Hawthorn.