Fat Tony

Lynch was a free agent and A-grader. I am not saying good key forwards aren't valuable (albeit overrated), but the opportunity cost of drafting them is usually too high.

North are stuffed. But I don't think they would be in a much better position had they drafted Cadman and McDonald (who would be going back to Perth if he was still on their list). Losing their second best player (Thomas) for naught was a cruel blow.

The point of the draft is not just this year. Who knows if Trac, Viney and Clarry will be fit next week. Clarry could be shipped out at the end of the season. Plus, even if we get another good foot soldier in the midfield, Petracca could be played forward.

I think you can make do with athletic mid-sized players who apply pressure. The Tigers won the flag with Josh Caddy and Jacob Townsend playing as key forwards. If we had have had luck last year, we could have won the flag with Melksham, Joel Smith and Van Rooyen as our key forwards.

Newcombe is the 49th ranked player in the AFL according to Wheelo Ratings (behind only Gawn, Petracca and Viney at MFC). You definitely underrate him. Jordon has cemented a spot in the best team in the competition. Harmes has played 159 AFL games and played in a premiership. If we got anything like these three players out of a mid-season pick I would be wrapped. My point is that it is a longshot to land a good key position player/ruck early in the normal draft, let alone in the mid-season draft. There just isn't that many of them because key forward is such a tough position to play at AFL level. You just have to be patient when a good prospect is at your early pick or bring in free agents or trades in the interim. The Dees and Pies have shown that you can win a flag without top quality key forwards. I would rather we focus on picking athletic midfielders and reducing the number of misses at the draft.

You should not expect a top liner. But the best mid-season picks so far have been Durham, Newcombe, Nobel and Pickett (all smalls/midfielders). I think it is even more unlikely to pick a key forward.

With such a open trade and free agency market, I don't think clubs can really plan more than a year ahead to maintain a balanced list. It is also so unpredictable. TMac has looked cooked then comes back and to become a star again. Hogan was the answer to our forward line for a decade and then wasn't. Weideman was a star in a final and then flamed out. So, as a rule, I favour taking the player that is going to play the most (and best) AFL games and usually that is a midfielder. Kentfield only makes sense if he is good enough IMO and there is probably only about 20-25 good AFL key forwards in the competition, so he is a longshot.

I don't know if McVee is strong enough to play as a centre square mid yet but I think we can benefit by feeding him more handball receives. I would also like to see us occasionally push McVee or Bowey up to the general stoppages and play with no loose defender (Salem or Lever) because they both have has great speed and are very good kicks.

A lot of the problems are because players are now tackling at 80% force, not wanting to bring the ball carrier to the ground and risk suspension. For the umpires, it is not as simple as paying holding the ball more often, as the rules require the ball carrier to have prior opportunity before the tackle is laid. IMO the umpires need to it ball up more, even if there is a bit of momentum in the player being tackled. If I were coaching, I think I would tell players to tackle at close to 100% force and risk suspensions.

Solid B grader (like most Saints players) who is versatile.

It looked like Jefferson's direct opponent against the Zebras was about 7cm shorter.

The best thing about the St Kilda game was the connection between Max and the midfield. When we get this right, we play the game in our forward half and the only thing that stops us winning is goal kicking. I thought we pressed a touch higher up the ground yesterday. This worked well but they got out the back of our zone more often than we would have liked. McVee is incredibly dynamic and needs to be fed the ball more. Hunter is an asset on the left wing. He holds his position well and we get much better spread because he can move the ball more quickly around the left boundary. Great to see Viney back in top form. Kossie was excellent.

Tomlinson is the slowest over 10-20 metres though.

Being more expansive with our ball movement makes sense in the second halves when the game opens up, but I would like to see us be more conservative and contest based early in the game. I also think we need a more aggressive forward press on kick ins and when we lose possession deep inside our forward line. Being less aggressive makes it easier for oppositions to avoid kicking down the line to Max.

Hoyne argues that we need to go back to kicking down the line and get more numbers to the contest. He basically states that the losses in finals were due to bad goal kicking and not due to our method. (I agree with this, although we could definitely be more efficient with some of our entries when playing a territory game.) Hoyne did not elaborate much on how we are not defending deeper. IMO this has been partly personnel driven and we struggle to put on a decent press with Brown in the side. Part of the way we are playing at the moment might be to protect Max. But I think a lot of it is our top midfielders have dropped a peg and aren't playing like elite top line AFL players anymore.

Similar timing to his old man as well!

Obviously Lever will be out and JVR/Langdon will come in. I would like to see bigger bodies in the centre. Sparrow and Rivers come to mind. Even JVR could be trialled as a midfielder in the centre clearance at times. We have been using Viney, Salem and Kossie too much in there and are getting bullied. And Oliver and Viney are both a step slower this year. Salem is a shadow of 2021 with no pace or drive. (I thought Salem played ok yesterday, but we are not a top 4 side with him in the midfield.) Not sure who should come in for Lever. Tomlinson makes sense if there is a slow enough match up. And I am not sure we can we push Rivers into the middle without Lever? Brown looks cooked. McAdam was underwhelming, not generating a score from either set shot directly in front (the further one he passed). The lack of forward pressure was an issue for him as well. Woewodin looks a player without a natural position in our system at AFL level but he has decent form. I would like to see Hunter get back to form and Windsor given a go at half back, but that might not be this week.

Don’t get murdered in the centre clearance and kick straight please.

Salem a chance to be the sub this week given he’s coming back from injury. It looks like Petty will be second ruck.

I am not convinced that Salem will definitely come straight back into the AFL side post injury this time. He may come back straight in, but I think they will have a debate at selection about it, which means he is not a lock. The only locks in the 23 would be May, Lever, McVee, Rivers, Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Viney, ANB, Pickett and Fritsch. For Salem to come into the backline, Bowey or Howes would need be dropped, or Rivers would need to be redeployed into the midfield. Salem is behind Oliver, Viney and Petracca in the midfield pecking order (and probably behind Sparrow). I remember you had Spargo as a lock in Goodwin's best side mid last year and he was dropped shortly after and then left out for Laurie in a final.

Salem's Player Ratings according to Wheelo Ratings 2021 - 10th for MFC (9.68 points) 2022 - 29th for MFC (5.15 points) 2023 - 21st for MFC (7.88 points) 2024 - 18th for MFC (7.72 points) He is definitely not a lock in our best side.

Jack Graham is a solid AFL player. I doubt we will do better in the mid-season draft.

Can’t complain about that from a commercial perspective.

That's certainly a possibility. I would go TMac forward and Tomlinson back, albeit knowing it disrupts our defence.

With JVR and Disco out, I think we might bring in Tomlinson and push TMac forward. Brown is another player we might look at in the forward line, but we really need someone to relief ruck. Can we ask Petty to be the second ruck? Hunter, Laurie and Woewodin (into the starting 22) are worth considering and Salem could be back.