Fat Tony

Oliver's Wheelo player rating has dropped from 18 in 2022 to 12.1 this year (88th in the AFL). Can we revert back to dominating territory again if Oliver is just a foot soldier? Maybe part of the shift this year has been about attempting to maximise our stoppage wins and turn them into scores, but I think a lot of it is also down to not getting our hands on the ball first.

I have not read most of this thread but one point that needs to be made is that we should not be playing a home game in Alice Springs. (And I understand the commercial realities mean that the current alternative is playing at Marvel.) The best way to grow the club is to win football matches and the NT deal reduces our chances to win.

With our midfield in decline, it is pretty clear we have become a one-man team this year. The ruck rules give Max a clear advantage in the stoppages and, in fine and still conditions, Max is an offensive and defensive weapon around the ground due to his contested marking. But we need to come up with some better tactics when Gawn is being neutralised from taking the ball out of the ruck. Playing with less numbers at general stoppages has especially failed for us in wet conditions, when we are not dominating hit outs and when our connection between Max and the midfield is off. This is the pattern with all our losses. Against the better rucks and in the wet, I would like to see us play more like the Bulldogs in 2021, with even numbers at the stoppages (or even blitzing with an extra number). To do this, I would play Windsor as a high half forward or high half back and have him come to the general stoppages. Kossie should also push up to general stoppages. They both have good breakaway speed and are good decision makers in congested situation, which is particularly required when kicking to an outnumbered forward line.

Rivers has never been in the midfield for more than a quarter. (With reasonable success.)

I think Rivers into the guts is something we’ve got to try. We need a bit more muscle in the midfield.

Drafting midfielders and speedy small forwards always makes the most sense. Less draft misses and less time to develop. But our list management has been too quick to resign fringe players. Why was Laurie re-signed before round 1?

-32 inside 50s. Our midfield has fallen off a cliff and we rely on Max dominating to have a chance.

I am surprised they had Petracca playing 65% forward against St Kilda. I thought he played a normal split between midfield and forward last week. The difference with the Carlton game was that he played as a full forward. This made sense given the wet conditions and he was invisible in the midfield early in the game (and Fritsch was not effective as our deepest forward). In dry conditions, I think he is better up in the midfield and Fritsch offers us more as our primary one-on-one target inside 50.

The AFLW is so uneven that they carefully fixture to ensure the best teams don't play the cellar dwellers. From last years home and away ladder we play 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th and 16th.

We had 21 shots at goal from only 36 inside 50s against West Coast. The forward line actually functioned very well from limited supply.

We are 7-1 when Max Gawn gets Coaches Votes and 0-3 when he doesn't. (The Brisbane game was the only game we lost when he got votes.) Up against Darcy and Jackson this week, we need a big game from Max.

Obviously you need good players everywhere to win a flag. But several recent teams have have been successful despite having weak key forwards (Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond 2017, WB). And no premiership team has had a poor or even average midfield. I think the model of bringing in established key position forwards (trade or free agents) rather than drafting them is the better one. It means you hit on your draft picks more often and get more early value (as smaller players seem to take less time to develop). The other thing I would note is that the key position forwards we have actually been most successful with at the draft were actually initially seen as defenders (JVR, Petty, Smith, TMac and Turner). This shows to me that second efforts are particularly important. BTW I hope Kentfield is Allen Jakovich II.

Lynch was a free agent and A-grader. I am not saying good key forwards aren't valuable (albeit overrated), but the opportunity cost of drafting them is usually too high.

North are stuffed. But I don't think they would be in a much better position had they drafted Cadman and McDonald (who would be going back to Perth if he was still on their list). Losing their second best player (Thomas) for naught was a cruel blow.

The point of the draft is not just this year. Who knows if Trac, Viney and Clarry will be fit next week. Clarry could be shipped out at the end of the season. Plus, even if we get another good foot soldier in the midfield, Petracca could be played forward.

I think you can make do with athletic mid-sized players who apply pressure. The Tigers won the flag with Josh Caddy and Jacob Townsend playing as key forwards. If we had have had luck last year, we could have won the flag with Melksham, Joel Smith and Van Rooyen as our key forwards.

Newcombe is the 49th ranked player in the AFL according to Wheelo Ratings (behind only Gawn, Petracca and Viney at MFC). You definitely underrate him. Jordon has cemented a spot in the best team in the competition. Harmes has played 159 AFL games and played in a premiership. If we got anything like these three players out of a mid-season pick I would be wrapped. My point is that it is a longshot to land a good key position player/ruck early in the normal draft, let alone in the mid-season draft. There just isn't that many of them because key forward is such a tough position to play at AFL level. You just have to be patient when a good prospect is at your early pick or bring in free agents or trades in the interim. The Dees and Pies have shown that you can win a flag without top quality key forwards. I would rather we focus on picking athletic midfielders and reducing the number of misses at the draft.

You should not expect a top liner. But the best mid-season picks so far have been Durham, Newcombe, Nobel and Pickett (all smalls/midfielders). I think it is even more unlikely to pick a key forward.

With such a open trade and free agency market, I don't think clubs can really plan more than a year ahead to maintain a balanced list. It is also so unpredictable. TMac has looked cooked then comes back and to become a star again. Hogan was the answer to our forward line for a decade and then wasn't. Weideman was a star in a final and then flamed out. So, as a rule, I favour taking the player that is going to play the most (and best) AFL games and usually that is a midfielder. Kentfield only makes sense if he is good enough IMO and there is probably only about 20-25 good AFL key forwards in the competition, so he is a longshot.

I don't know if McVee is strong enough to play as a centre square mid yet but I think we can benefit by feeding him more handball receives. I would also like to see us occasionally push McVee or Bowey up to the general stoppages and play with no loose defender (Salem or Lever) because they both have has great speed and are very good kicks.

A lot of the problems are because players are now tackling at 80% force, not wanting to bring the ball carrier to the ground and risk suspension. For the umpires, it is not as simple as paying holding the ball more often, as the rules require the ball carrier to have prior opportunity before the tackle is laid. IMO the umpires need to it ball up more, even if there is a bit of momentum in the player being tackled. If I were coaching, I think I would tell players to tackle at close to 100% force and risk suspensions.

Solid B grader (like most Saints players) who is versatile.

It looked like Jefferson's direct opponent against the Zebras was about 7cm shorter.

The best thing about the St Kilda game was the connection between Max and the midfield. When we get this right, we play the game in our forward half and the only thing that stops us winning is goal kicking. I thought we pressed a touch higher up the ground yesterday. This worked well but they got out the back of our zone more often than we would have liked. McVee is incredibly dynamic and needs to be fed the ball more. Hunter is an asset on the left wing. He holds his position well and we get much better spread because he can move the ball more quickly around the left boundary. Great to see Viney back in top form. Kossie was excellent.

Tomlinson is the slowest over 10-20 metres though.