Fat Tony

Like most on Demonland, I think Melbourne should be bidding to acquire the Sun’s pick #4. That said, we should not overpay and, if the price is too high, I think we should also consider selling off our 2023 picks (including pick #5) for 2024 draft capital. The Sun’s bidding process will give us a good idea of the market for very early picks in this draft and we might find that there are two clubs out there that are willing to significantly overpay for early 2023 picks. It appears that the interest rate being paid by AFL clubs to bring picks forward is way too high. Our list position means that we only really need to take one draft pick this year (plus upgrading Daniel Turner and F/S Kynan Brown). Our current 2023 draft hand is #5, #15, #24, #34. And with Grundy, Jordon, Harmes and Tomlinson potentially on the move, we could turn these assets into multiple 2024 first and second round picks. The list spots of Grundy, Jordon, Harmes and Tomlinson could be filled by free agents and with some of our younger players developing (Woewodin, Howes, Moniz-Wakefield and Laurie) the depth of our list could be mostly be replaced (except in the ruck where we can never get another player as good as Grundy to be depth). While we have obviously had a lot of recent success in borrowing from the future in order to hit the draft due to our strong selections, there must come a tipping point where the cost of the margin loan is excessive. (Our success in doing this strategy might mean that there are more and more copycat clubs who are willing to mortgage the future, further increasing the interest rate.) If we do move to extend our draft capital to 2024, one other benefit is that we could have multiple Deathride threads on Demonland!

My biggest concerns with Jefferson are his lack of ground game and defensive efforts. Key forwards need to be more than marking threats at AFL level. While he is going to get stronger, that’s not the only issue with his game.

This is going to be a challenging trade in the off season. Port only have picks #37 and #43 which will go out with bids etc and are also trying to lure Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher. We will also not want to put Paul Connors offside, but we need to make sure a fair price is paid.

Yes. Playing on Saturday means a 5 day break to the AFL final. The VFL is the competition under the AFL not AFLW.

This game should be on Friday night. Terrible scheduling again by the VFL.

Josh Schache has less intensity and just got another contract.

Casboult is old but is a free agent and is durable. He potentially fills two roles on our list. Chol would require a trade and is probably worth a pick around #30.

The key to getting this pick might be extracting Port's future first round pick for Grundy. The Suns will want to either: a) getup to pick 1 or 2 ahead of any bids or b) sell pick 4 for points and later picks. A package that includes two future first round picks (tied to Melbourne and PA) and points in 2023 will be attractive to them.

I would be looking at Levi Casboult or Mabior Chol at the Suns. Both could fill the role as a second ruck if Max gets injured for a short period but can also potentially play a role as second ruck alongside Max. I know Casboult would be a stop gap solution but it could be the difference between winning or losing the 2024 flag.

The Archer moves like a gazelle. He will be a top liner if he can get his body right for a full season.

Hopefully he doesn’t get hit by a Russian rocket before Thursday night!

I would be sending Oliver to De Goey at stoppages, as he is the key for Collingwood beating us. Oliver has been kept quieter than normal in the last two games and I think Pendlebury or Cripps will otherwise go to him at stoppages. Oliver is a good run with player and has done jobs on Cripps (R1 2020) and Bontempelli (H2 GF 2021).

MCC is 9am

May looked like he was a bit ginger after taking a mark with 6.40 on the clock in the last quarter and then went off to the bench. I think he is ok but is clearly battling late in the year.

May pulled up sore in contest at the end of the Hawthorn game, so he might be better off with a rest.

Goodwin also said that TMac is moving better than at any time this year. A mobile and agile TMac could be the difference for us come September.

Is Harmes injured? He didn’t play on the weekend.

Laurie did some good things but overall he looked like a player not up to the speed of AFL on Sunday. Laurie needs to be well above average with disposal given his lack of pace, role and size. His handballs hit the ground and kicks were intercepted and spoiled. Laurie is the obvious omission for Fritsch and he is not a versatile choice of sub. It will then be interesting how we structure the forward line. Melksham is playing a great role as the negator to the oppositions best interceptor. Smith was fantastic at competing in the air and on the ground. Van Rooyen is looking in great form. And Fritsch is best closer to goal where he is elite at finishing. I think that each of Smith, Fritsch and Melksham are going to have to take turns pushing up the ground because there will be around 10-20% of the game when Gawn, Van Rooyen, Smith, Fritsch and Melksham are all on the ground at the same time. Petracca also needs room to play closer goal at times, so we will need players to sacrifice for this to work. The other big call to make is Tomlinson. He is way too slow and while Lever is better as the third tall, we can't be playing a passenger in the second tall role to facilitate it. We could go back to Smith even though he does not possess the smarts and synergy with the other defenders. I would strongly consider Daniel Turner, who plays a lot like Tom Stewart and is far too good for the VFL. I feel the criticism of his game against Casboult at the Suns is a touch unfair because Casboult's overall impact was not that significant and he is one of those players that is too big and strong for most defenders. Hibberd would be another potential inclusion but for concussion and Bowey and Salem need to improve to be locked into the side in September. We could also go with a smaller and faster backline with Hibberd, albeit Lever becomes less effective.

I thought the McCartin bump was incidental and justice was done at the MRP. Footy is a tough game and head injuries happen.

It’s not that left field but the coaching staff see TMac as a better forward because he is an ordinary field kick but a straight kick for goal. TMac will need to be mobile and agile enough and be timing his overhead marks to get back into the AFL.

Happy to win by 27 against my most hated club but thought we were just ok yesterday. The win was pleasing given Petracca had a shocker, Oliver had his least impact for a long time and Kossie was hopeless. I thought we lost centre clearance and that was a key source of goals for Hawthorn. Tomlinson looks too slow and is a real worry in September. While Lever is better with another key defender, the defence looked at sea at times when the ball came in quickly. Oliver looks like a player who lacks confidence and touch and is not looking to take territory. He is playing like he played five years ago, looking to handball and not bursting forward. We need him to get back to exploding forward in the stoppages. Smith is a very good player and we can forget using him as the sub. He competes in the air and then is first to fight for it on the ground. I prefer him forward but he is great at being able to switch around and we might need him to go back if TMac earns his way into the side.

While Demonlanders are right to point out the impact of playing 3 talls in defence and our record with May, Lever and Tomlinson in defence together, they are ignoring that Tomlinson has been poor and subbed out in his last two games. Against Adelaide and Hawthorn, Tomlinson has exposed as very slow. The matchup against the Lions is particularly concerning, with Daniher and Hipwood being too tall and fast.

May looked like he pulled up sore in the last quarter. I wonder if Disco Turner isn’t without a chance of replacing Tomlinson. I think he’s worth considering.

Hard to see FA compo or priority picks being ahead of the Eagles. But they will be gifted Sanders some how.

Goldstein, Chol and McLean should be names on the whiteboard.