Fat Tony

Like the thinking. We should win this week even if we rest a few stars and I think we need to look at the big picture. Some points I think about: May looks like Frankenstein on the ground balls and looks to have a bad back. Will a week off help? Is he risking a leg injury? Viney has a bad knee and bad shoulder. (Maybe he should be the sub this week.) Gawn needs to be managed, either with less ruck time or week off. (We need him in peak condition for September.) McVee is only 20 and could probably have a week off at some stage. (Maybe he should be the sub this week.) Hibberd deserves to be playing AFL football. Smith deserves to start in the 22 on form. Sparrow is likely returning. Oliver is unlikely and probably should be given another week given the opposition.

Chandler has already kicked more goals this year than Spargo has kicked in a season. Petty gave us more as a forward against Richmond than Brown ever has (more goals, marks & supercoach points). Surely Binman will have to concede that we are better without Brown and Spargo now? Especially given we need to fit Oliver, Sparrow and Fritsch back into the 22. Grundy is also a possible in. If he persists with our 2021 champions, Andy needs to hold him to account of who goes out because there are only 23 spots available?

Watching the highlights of Harley Reid, the way he plays reminds me of Hawthorn's Jai Newcombe. He looks very powerful, skilful and has decent pace without being really quick. I have not seen him take strong overhead marks like Petracca did in his draft year. At 185cm, he will be short for a modern day inside midfielder.

I am in favour of giving North Melbourne a decent assistance package. With free agency, it makes it almost impossible for cellar dwellers to climb out of a death spiral. That said, I don’t like very early priority picks. IMO the fairest way to give an assistance package without a significant impact on one or two clubs is the following: Points which can be swapped with Gold Coast for their first pick to enable the Suns to take their 3 academy players. Points to take Ryley Sanders (I am not in favour of changing the draft rules to allow pre-listing, but this has the same impact) Ben McKay compensation at the end of the first round. They can't allow a high salary contract to be padded out later like they did with Joe Daniher. A priority pick after WCE’s 2023 second round pick Priority pick #11 for 2024 This gives a decent package but the impact is spread equally on the competition and does not reshuffle the first round. This would also give slight assistance to GCS, which is also needed for the good of the competition. This means North Melbourne will hold: 2023: #2, #5 (from GCS), #17 (from Port last year), #19 (compensation for Ben McKay), #21 (priority pick), #40, #54 & #60. Plus Ryley Sanders. 2024: R1, #11, R2, R3 & R4 As an aside, I would actually give WCE similar priority picks (i.e. start of second round this year and 2024 first round before the finalists) and maybe some points (not enough to satisfy GCS) so they can swap for picks used for other father/son academy picks.

Dunstan's is really cover for Viney. I doubt we would want to play both in the same side.

I am hoping to see: Hibberd for Sparrow; Rivers play midfield Smith for Wowoedin Petty for Brown Wowoedin sub

Small forwards really need to have aerial ability to mark overhead. (You could play 6 Charlie Cameron's in the same forward line but only 2 Zac Bailey's). Chandler is the only one who there who is not a liability in the air. Pickett should improve because he has a leap but hasn't learnt to get his timing right. ANB is limited but taller so he doesn't get exposed that badly but it's not a strength. Spargo is poor overhead. What is Watson's overhead marking like?

Your comparison isn't really fair IMO. I don't want to be like an England supporter and complaining about the rain, but the GWS and the Cats games were both in horrendous conditions for forwards. And our ball movement against the Pies and Blues wasn't great for the forwards either. The last three weeks have been in perfect conditions for Brown and we have been more attacking and yet he has been sub par for the most part. We need to give Smith a chance because he looks sensational in glimpses and because he makes our forward line less predictable. He was fantastic against Brisbane and Adelaide and we might be 0-2 the last two weeks if not for his impact, and he was very important in our win against the Pies.

Joel Smith has to start in the 22. He is able to create separation like Cameron and Curnow at the moment due to his elite speed and is reading the ball perfectly in the air. This makes him a threat on the lead and over the back and because he is so agile, he is always a chance to get the ball on the ground. If he can kick straight, he could be our most dangerous forward. He also helps our tackling on inside 50. I understand he is very versatile and that is why people think he is an ideal sub, but he is in such good form in the air he makes our forward line look much more dynamic. Ben Brown has kicked just 2 goals in the last four games. He has been good in patches (particularly at the start against the Lions) but he is such a liability when the ball is on the deck and gets out marked too often when competing against two players and he needs to get the ball to ground. I know he was a 2021 hero, but that was 2 years ago and he has never proven to be a great player on the MCG. Hibberd is way too good for the VFL but the only way I can see to get him in is to either play a smaller defence, with Petty or Tomlinson out of the back 7, or shifting Rivers to midfield or Bowey forward. Gawn won’t be able to ruck solo for the rest of the season and we need to look at bringing Grundy back in at some stage. Petty will probably be fit to return. Should he replace Tomlinson? I am not sure. Tomlinson has been better than Petty over the last two months but he clearly has limitations in defending against tall high leaping forwards like McKay, Hipwood and Daniher. I like what Petty can give us up forward, because he is a good mark and competes to get the ball to ground against multiple opponents. My changes (prior to unknown injuries): Petty (forward) for Ben Brown Smith for Wowoedin (unlucky but he has had a taste) Hibberd sub In case of substitution, Hibberd goes back, Rivers goes midfield, Sparrow forward Tomlinson May McVee Salem Lever Rivers Langdon Brayshaw Hunter Neal-Bullen Van Rooyen Chandler Pickett Petty Petracca Gawn Sparrow Viney Jordon Smith Melksham Bowey Hibberd

Dursmaa is a lot like his brother. Other comparisons are Shaun Burgoyne.

Neither work in wet weather 🤞

I want Smith to come into the 22 and Chandler be the sub. Demonlanders underestimate what he could do for us.

I am not convinced we should target a midfielder for two reasons. Firstly, we have Petracca, Viney, Oliver, Sparrow, Brayshaw and Pickett tied up on lengthy contracts. There are only 240 minutes of inside the centre square game time to go around and we can’t easily fit a new player in. Secondly, it does not appear to me that underaged midfielders necessarily translate to AFL midfielders once they are fully developed. There is a plethora of examples of players drafted as flankers or mid/small forwards who ultimately become elite inside players. These include Nathan Fyfe, Patrick Dangerfield, Gary Ablett Jnr, James Hird, Andrew McLeod, Adam Goodes, Zac Butters, Conor Rozee, Elliot Yeo, Will Day, Jake Stringer, Jarod Dawson and Shai Bolton. Josh Weddle looks like another who will join this list. I hope we target a forward who can enhance our team immediately. If they can develop into a midfielder down the track, all the better.

Should have pulled May off.

I prefer all finals be knockout. The double chance is a silly and unique part to our sport. The old NFL finals system with 12 teams is the best IMO. It involves the top four seeds getting a week off, with 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, 7 vs 10 & 8 vs 9. The eight remaining sides then play off according to seedings in quarter, semi and grand finals.

Frawley might have been worth first round compo as a player (debatable), but I doubt the contract Hawthorn gave him worthy of Band 1 compensation. The AFL (a corrupt organisation at its core) needed to give us assistance without the PR of giving a priority pick.

Wonder if the Dogs would consider letting Aaron Naughton go for a high pick go given they can pick up another giant FS forward in Croft. Or if the Suns would consider a trade for Ben King given they are getting Jed Walter. Neither side needs key position forwards but both are likely to take them.

I know we like to play 'speed forwards' who are there to crumb and apply pressure, but the inability of Pickett, ANB and Spargo to compete in the air is a concern. Just rewatching the replay against Brisbane, the trio gave away frees or were out marked way too often in Q2 and Q3. I don't see us winning a flag on the MCG with that combination because the extra space means every player need to be able to compete in the air at times. I would like to see us trial three hybrid forwards (Petracca, Melksham and Smith) and two key forwards ( in the last 6 games who can compete in the air, crumb and apply pressure. Maybe Chandler could come back into the side, but he needs to find form and hit the scoreboard. That said, I think Petracca should start in the centre bounce most times and drift forward.

We should go for best available but with a bias towards a forward or outside midfielder. With Petracca, Oliver and Viney contracted on long deals we don't need an inside midfielder. And so any player we pick needs to be able to enhance our best 22 from outside the centre square. Our defence is stacked with high quality and depth. I like the look of Duursma.

That would be the worst result. Cats have a high percentage and a draw already and Freo's percentage is low.

McKercher looks pretty small for a midfielder and very left sided.

Goodwin needs to use his media appearances to highlight issues like this and suggest that a free kick early in the game is required to put it to bed.

Intentional, low impact and high contact = 1 week

Joel Smith has to play. Either forward or back. We need to know exactly what we have here and we need to find out before finals. Spargo is a liability in the air due to size and doesn’t offer enough in other areas IMO. I think Pig is too good to leave out but our small defenders are all very good. I still think Petty needs to go forward and that he would be our best bet.

Collingwood win with plenty of long term injuries then OD?