Fat Tony

I think we will be able to shift money around if required and the impact is mostly in the cap for this year (when we played a man short on our list).

We planned to try and maximise our chances to win the flags in 2022-24, which made sense given we had Max and May entering their twilight.

But these numbers have already been factored into our planning. (I think Petty is probably on less than stated and Melksham is now a rookie wage. We also still need confirmation on Brayshaw.) My worry is that Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Salem and maybe Pickett have been on backended deals.

Oliver is set to be paid so much that we will only BREAKEVEN on our investment in his contract IF he returns to his All Australian best. Oliver was an absolute top line player when he had the power and pace to break away from stoppages. But when he does not have this, he gets caught and his lack of disposal skill makes him a big liability against the best teams. Can Oliver get back to his best given his issues and age? I think it is unlikely and I see that this offseason may be our only opportunity to get off his contract without having to eat too much of it.

The club would have already factored in Brown, McDonald, Hunter, and Tomlinson coming off the books (or taking less money) when they signed the Oliver, Petracca and Pickett deals. The Brayshaw contract is still unresolved and Petty, who is on a good contract for the club, still has one more year and may stay. We have been in the win flag mode for the last four years, which we can only assume means we have been effectively running over the salary cap by backloading our long-term deals. We can continue to do this if we think we are still in the flag window, but otherwise we need to U-turn and reset our cap. 2024 was our last chance saloon IMO.

LDU is a $900k player and our cap is already stretched due to the Oliver, Petracca and Pickett contracts. I see us as being more likely to shed players this year than to add them.

I cannot see us seriously competing for a premiership in 2025 but I think we should be aim to try to win the 2026/27 flags if Max can hold his form and we can recruit perfectly. But the key to list management is in the salary cap – that is paying players less than they are worth. At the moment, we have a few players who are being significantly overpaid. We therefore need to do a similar strategy to Collingwood when they let Grundy and Treloar go. Oliver’s decline is partly due to his poor pre-season, but I think it is also the speed of the game has gone past him. He has never been a great kick and the opposition inside mids are getting bigger and faster each year. I think we need to get off his contract, which has 6 years to run. He is playing like a $400k player, not the $1m player we are paying. I still think there are desperate clubs that would part for a decent pick and pay his full salary (like Adelaide or St Kilda). Salem is another player we should look to get off contract, which has 2 years to run. He has completely lost his pace and drive and cannot kick over 45m. He is not worth much in terms of picks, but I feel we would be better off putting his money into other existing contracts and freeing up money in future years. We are also better off giving his games, in the easiest position on the ground, to a younger player. Viney has also gone backwards but he only has one more year under contract. Unless another club came with a great offer, we are better off keeping Viney. May is another player who we might look to trade given his age and where our flag window sits. (I think he is probably giving fair value for his contract but he is declining.) Brisbane needs to trade its first round pick in order to land Ashcroft and May could be part of a deal (along with later picks for points) to get that pick. Any Petty trade with Adelaide needs to be over fair value. We know Petty is still a good payer and he is down due to lack of preseason and playing forward. I would not trade him unless Adelaide come the party, knowing that we will still get compensated if he leaves the year after. That leaves the following core players to build around for a 2026 tilt: Petracca, Gawn, Lever, Fritsch, Pickett, Bowey, Langdon, Sparrow, Van Rooyen, McVee, Petty, Windsor, Rivers, Sparrow, Chandler, Woewodin, K Brown, Tholstrup, Turner, Howes (and TMac, Viney and maybe Melksham as veterans in 2025). At the draft, we need to focus more heavily on pace and kicking skills.

This year was always our last chance but we have less depth this year and so we need everything to go right. The competition is very even apart from the Swans. Getting more from Oliver and Viney is the key for the rest of the season. If we start winning centre clearance and kicking accurately, our form can turnaround quickly. The main adjustment we need to make from a game plan perspective is our defensive press needs to be more aggressive when we lose possession inside 50. I think we need to see Rivers go into the midfield, especially now Petracca is injured.

We have made a lot of poor recruiting decisions in targeting needs rather than targeting fast and skilful players. And decisions to give extension to fringe players so early in the season has been stupid.

A main reason for our struggles is Oliver going from a superstar to a C grade plodder. He has always been an ordinary kick, but he offers no drive anymore. We should revisit a trade at the end of the season, because his contract is an albatross now. Salem is also cooked. The decision to play him at high half back means we get no value from turnovers. Compare what he gives compared to Saad. Laurie is an average VFL player. The decision to give him another two years before the season should put Tim Lamb on notice. Great effort by ANB.

Hutchison was pick 3.

I can't see us making too many changes despite the pathetic performance against Freo. We just don't have AFL level talent in the VFL. Obviously Hunter will be out and hopefully JVR will come back in. The suggestion of ANB on Daicos makes sense. None of Petty, McAdam or Turner really deserve a spot in the side on form, but we can't drop them all. I think I would go with: McVee May Turner Salem Tomlinson Bowey Langdon ANB Windsor Petracca TMac Chandler Pickett JVR Fritsch Gawn Oliver Viney Petty Woewodin Rivers Sparrow Howes

We should play Oliver as a tagger (although watching Daicos accelerate after disposing of the ball, I am not sure he will get close).

Oliver's Wheelo player rating has dropped from 18 in 2022 to 12.1 this year (88th in the AFL). Can we revert back to dominating territory again if Oliver is just a foot soldier? Maybe part of the shift this year has been about attempting to maximise our stoppage wins and turn them into scores, but I think a lot of it is also down to not getting our hands on the ball first.

I have not read most of this thread but one point that needs to be made is that we should not be playing a home game in Alice Springs. (And I understand the commercial realities mean that the current alternative is playing at Marvel.) The best way to grow the club is to win football matches and the NT deal reduces our chances to win.

With our midfield in decline, it is pretty clear we have become a one-man team this year. The ruck rules give Max a clear advantage in the stoppages and, in fine and still conditions, Max is an offensive and defensive weapon around the ground due to his contested marking. But we need to come up with some better tactics when Gawn is being neutralised from taking the ball out of the ruck. Playing with less numbers at general stoppages has especially failed for us in wet conditions, when we are not dominating hit outs and when our connection between Max and the midfield is off. This is the pattern with all our losses. Against the better rucks and in the wet, I would like to see us play more like the Bulldogs in 2021, with even numbers at the stoppages (or even blitzing with an extra number). To do this, I would play Windsor as a high half forward or high half back and have him come to the general stoppages. Kossie should also push up to general stoppages. They both have good breakaway speed and are good decision makers in congested situation, which is particularly required when kicking to an outnumbered forward line.

Rivers has never been in the midfield for more than a quarter. (With reasonable success.)

I think Rivers into the guts is something we’ve got to try. We need a bit more muscle in the midfield.

Drafting midfielders and speedy small forwards always makes the most sense. Less draft misses and less time to develop. But our list management has been too quick to resign fringe players. Why was Laurie re-signed before round 1?

-32 inside 50s. Our midfield has fallen off a cliff and we rely on Max dominating to have a chance.

I am surprised they had Petracca playing 65% forward against St Kilda. I thought he played a normal split between midfield and forward last week. The difference with the Carlton game was that he played as a full forward. This made sense given the wet conditions and he was invisible in the midfield early in the game (and Fritsch was not effective as our deepest forward). In dry conditions, I think he is better up in the midfield and Fritsch offers us more as our primary one-on-one target inside 50.

The AFLW is so uneven that they carefully fixture to ensure the best teams don't play the cellar dwellers. From last years home and away ladder we play 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th and 16th.

We had 21 shots at goal from only 36 inside 50s against West Coast. The forward line actually functioned very well from limited supply.

We are 7-1 when Max Gawn gets Coaches Votes and 0-3 when he doesn't. (The Brisbane game was the only game we lost when he got votes.) Up against Darcy and Jackson this week, we need a big game from Max.

Obviously you need good players everywhere to win a flag. But several recent teams have have been successful despite having weak key forwards (Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond 2017, WB). And no premiership team has had a poor or even average midfield. I think the model of bringing in established key position forwards (trade or free agents) rather than drafting them is the better one. It means you hit on your draft picks more often and get more early value (as smaller players seem to take less time to develop). The other thing I would note is that the key position forwards we have actually been most successful with at the draft were actually initially seen as defenders (JVR, Petty, Smith, TMac and Turner). This shows to me that second efforts are particularly important. BTW I hope Kentfield is Allen Jakovich II.