Bring-Back-Powell

So basically the club is conceding that this year's Darwin game is going to physically effect our run home this season. Not good. However, good news that we may be looking to get out of the deal. More than happy to have that home game transferred to Etihad given how well we play there and how badly we play at the MCG. Interesting that last year we had a good win over Port the week after Darwin, but then put in 2 lackluster performances against North and GWS (both interstate). So the flow on effects could last beyond the 1 week.

Like that idea. We now need height in defence. (I still think T Mac may return down back if our defence doesn't stack up over the next 4-6 weeks but that's another story) Although I've never seen Petty play, I think he'd be a good match up for Marshall who's just a 19/20 year old kid himself and is coming back from personal tragedy. Hinkley talked up Marshall massively last night as one for the future, but he only had a 6 possession 2 behind game last week in his return. Petty could then take on St Kilda's youngster in Josh Battle while O Mac takes McCartin and someone else minds Bruce if he's back.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-19/dees-keen-to-bury-memories-of-birthday-blip Sounds like 3 of Tyson, Stretch, Garlett and Petty will get the nod. So on that basis: In - Tyson, Garlett and Petty Out - Spargo (dropped not rested), Hannan, Pedersen. We're lacking a third key foward/back up ruck so T Mac will have to take a couple of centre bounces a quarter,.

Yeah thanks for that. Good memory or research by you. Was only focusing on Friday night home and away games and that final slipped my mind.

If you're referring to that amazing 3 point win over Adelaide in Roosy's first year, that was a Saturday twilight.

That's a useless stat IMO. We beat Port on a Saturday night over there in 2016. I guess if that game was on a Friday night we would've lost.

When was the last time we played an interstate game on a Friday night? The most recent one I can think of was against Sydney in 2003 on Anzac Day when we blew a 20 point three qtr time lead and then conceded 10 last qtr goals.

As a result of this disastrous injury, T Mac will be our number 1 key defender by round 18-19. I’m willing to put money on it. Meanwhile Hogan and Weideman will be our 2 key forwards. That defence they put out last Monday isn’t good enough to a) win a final and b) beat the good sides on the run home in order to qualify. You can blame the midfield all you like but somethings seriously wrong with your defence when an American is dominating as if he’s Wayne Carey and a first year kid and Will Hoskin Elliott are kicking 8 between them. T Mac will have to go back and replace Lever’s leadership and there was absolutely none there last week. That’s why unfortunately Lever’s injury will have certainly cost us a top 4 spot and possibly even a top 8. Yes, T Mac’s 6 goals were lovely but they were merely wall papering over some bad cracks.

How many contested marks in our Defensive 50 did O Mac, Hibberd and Jetta take between them? Would have been be lucky to have been one. Not good enough from our number 1 key defender and our 2 veterans down back. Everyone has defended our defence due to our midfield being destroyed by the Pies. But I thought our defence was a disorganised rabble and failed our first Post Lever test miserably. If this keeps up, Tom McDonald will be playing in defence by rd 19.

Watts is playing SANFL on Sunday, so they may decide not to play him anyway off the back of a 5 day break.

So from that article we're paying 15% of Watt's salary in 2019. What a fantastic way to wee away $70,000.

I don't think it would bother Jack too much if his AFL career ended. More time to head to Byron Bay throughout the year and sell his board shorts.

So will Jack Watts replace Marshall who had a poor 2 mark 2 behind game? Would be pretty stiff on the kid if Hinkley dropped him after his emotional return. FWIW, I'd rather Watts not play. I couldn't hack him kicking 4 goals and celebrating like he's won the flag.

Could be worse. Could be Simon Lethlean.

Totally off topic but it's fact that in 2014 GWS tried to trade picks 4 and 7 to St Kilda for pick 1 in order to secure Petracca. GWS were so desperate for him pre draft.

Not fussed if he leaves at the end of the year but I still think he has a role to play in the last 6 or so weeks. Could easily get a game over Hannan or Spargo and we're crying out for pace.

The North win stacks up in my book. They are a good side and people still can't acknowledge that fact. They will finish 5th-7th. Having said that, if the North win ends up being the highlight of our season, you can be pretty confident that the back end of our season won't be anything to write home about.

I must rate North higher than others. That game was a good win over a side that will finish top 8 and has taken a couple of scalps this season. Yes, the Adelaide win doesn't stack up that well at the moment given how injury riddled they are.

I too think we're a sneaky chance V's Port. We've won 3 out of 5 there.

Prior to doing my analysis to the run home, I was convinced 13 wins would get us in. And 13 wins is what I'm expecting given our sample space against top 8 sides this year.

13 wins has always appeared to have been the magic number to make finals. However in 2018, this may not be enough to sneak in. The two factors in season 2018 as to why 13 wins may not be enough are as follows: 1. The amount of rubbish sides that have already fallen off the cliff by round 12. In my below ladder prediction, I have not factored in 1 potential upset caused by Bulldogs, GC, Brisbane, Carlton and St Kilda on the top 11 sides of the comp that are all vying for a final spot. You could not fathom any of those sides causing an upset on the road home. 2. The bottom 6 draws afforded to Collingwood and North Melbourne. As good as these sides have been this year, they will benefitted from an easy draw throughout the year, and this fact alone may see both of them nudge us out of the finals. While we have a horror last 6 weeks in terms of playing quality sides, Collingwood and North play a fair few bottom dwellers on the run home. Furthermore, you only have to go back to 2012 when North finished 8th with 14 wins and nudged out St Kilda with 12 wins and a bloody good percentage of 123. Similar to this year, sides such as GWS, GC and Melbourne couldn’t win a game to save themselves which meant that top 8-10 sides were winning more games than normal. Here is my top 11 ladder predictor after round 23. I have factored in the 4 wins we should be taking care of (St Kilda, Freo, Bulldogs and GC) and a win over GWS at the MCG which looks like a touch task at this stage. The bottom line is we’re going to have to pinch another of those tough games to get to 14and be a certainty. SYDNEY 17-5 WEST COAST 16-6 RICHMOND 16-6 COLLINGWOOD 16-6 GEELONG 15-7 NORTH MELB 15-7 PORT 15-7 GWS 13-8-1 MELBOURNE 13-9 ADELAIDE 13-9 HAWTHORN 12-10

Hasn’t gotten over his chance encounter with Lebron James and is too busy writing his AFL Hall of fame speech.

For what it's worth Jon Ralph (last night) was of the opinion it will be "Josh Smith". I assume he meant Joel Smith. For anyone that saw us play the Dogs at Whitten Oval in the JLT last year would've been excited by Smith's performance that day. Took intercept marks, won one-on-ones, strong in contests and was overall promising as the second or third key defender. He also started off the 2017 season like a rocket V's St Kilda before Riewoldt put him out of business for 3 months. I personally don't think Frost will play again for the club unless we have an injury crisis. He was out of favour late last year, he only played JLT 2 this year because Oscar went off injured, and then stuffed up again in a mistake riddled performance V's Hawthorn.

I'd focus on re-signing Brayshaw and T Mac first. Then Gaff comes after that.