57 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

Dare I say, and this is certainly not a direct comparison nor even any acknowledgement of similarity with Josh Lindsay, the Toumpas trap.

Toumpas was a great kick, clever, high character, classy and had a whole lot of very good AFL traits. The problem is that they were stuck behind ordinary athleticism from a low-contest player. That meant that we barely got to see his clever ball use because we didn’t get much of it and was smashed as soon as he did.

That's interesting about Toumpas. I remember being so excited about him and then being absolutely baffled by his AFL form. I still don't get it to this day, but your explanation certainly helps.

1 hour ago, Ted Lasso said:

I like him as a mid

Look at other mids his age - Rowell, Anderson, Young, Serong, Green, Day etc.

There's no way Rivers is anywhere near their tier.

He's got too many deficiencies but will be a nice B grader.

Edited yesterday at 03:021 day by Dee Boys

2 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

Drafting Josh Lindsay would make me nervous.

Obviously good kick off the ball and his teams look to have him use the ball off half back wherever possible. But we’re not drafting him to play juniors or VFL, we’re drafting him to play AFL. He looks very similar in style to Salem but more of a recent Salem without his previous zip or the toughness Salem possesses.

One of the best correlations between drafting and success at AFL level (IMHO as someone who is not a professional!) is your ability to win contests and to play at high speed. These are like hurdle requirements to be an AFL footballer, otherwise you become a liability at the top level. If you can do these things then you give your other traits a chance to shine, like kicking etc. I worry about Lindsay’s ability to pass these hurdle requirements.

As we get towards the draft and I watch more of the players this may change, but these are my early impressions.

1 hour ago, Axis of Bob said:

Dare I say, and this is certainly not a direct comparison nor even any acknowledgement of similarity with Josh Lindsay, the Toumpas trap.

Toumpas was a great kick, clever, high character, classy and had a whole lot of very good AFL traits. The problem is that they were stuck behind ordinary athleticism from a low-contest player. That meant that we barely got to see his clever ball use because we didn’t get much of it and was smashed as soon as he did.

If I were to pick up that type of player I’d prefer to do it later in the draft where I’m hoping to get role players rather than core pieces of the team.

As for Lindsay, I’d like to see more before having a strong opinion about him.

My thoughts also. The ability to win enough of your own contested ball is one of the most accurate measures of success at AFL level. There used to be a magic statistic that you needed to be above 30% contested possession rate or you could not make it at AFL level. Even outside running wingmen like Ed Langdon are above this mark.

Highly rated players like Toumpas, Morton, O'Rourke, Tsatas etc were taken right at the top of the draft due to their skill and accumulation at an underage level. They all had low contested possession and tackle rate and won nearly all their disposals uncontested on the outside. When they took the step to AFL level, they were no longer afforded the same time or lack of physical pressure and therefore did not become the projected stars or even average AFL players.

Lindsey looks like this to me. His game is described as "friendly". He's a brilliant kick, has great vision, but is very outside. He's fed the ball in the backline and not shown at ability to adjust through the midfield to a more 360 degree game and to handle pressure and physicality. His weaknesses are listed as contest, leg speed, defensive work. Those are some glaring attributes required to make it at AFL level. Leg speed you can compensate for. Inability to handle and apply physical pressure you cannot.

Even with the more free flowing modern game, contest and clearances dictated the outcome of this finals series yet again. When the pressure ramps up, you need to be able to handle it. For mine, I'd be hoping we draft someone who can become an elite midfielder, not a designated kick out player. For this reason, I'm hopeful of players like Grlj, Oskar Taylor, and others similar.

Surprised not to see any interest for Aidan Schubert; strongly built 198cm Ruck/Forward.
Seen him expected to go anywhere from 8-14 in the draft.

8 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

My thoughts also. The ability to win enough of your own contested ball is one of the most accurate measures of success at AFL level. There used to be a magic statistic that you needed to be above 30% contested possession rate or you could not make it at AFL level. Even outside running wingmen like Ed Langdon are above this mark.

Highly rated players like Toumpas, Morton, O'Rourke, Tsatas etc were taken right at the top of the draft due to their skill and accumulation at an underage level. They all had low contested possession and tackle rate and won nearly all their disposals uncontested on the outside. When they took the step to AFL level, they were no longer afforded the same time or lack of physical pressure and therefore did not become the projected stars or even average AFL players.

Lindsey looks like this to me. His game is described as "friendly". He's a brilliant kick, has great vision, but is very outside. He's fed the ball in the backline and not shown at ability to adjust through the midfield to a more 360 degree game and to handle pressure and physicality. His weaknesses are listed as contest, leg speed, defensive work. Those are some glaring attributes required to make it at AFL level. Leg speed you can compensate for. Inability to handle and apply physical pressure you cannot.

Even with the more free flowing modern game, contest and clearances dictated the outcome of this finals series yet again. When the pressure ramps up, you need to be able to handle it. For mine, I'd be hoping we draft someone who can become an elite midfielder, not a designated kick out player. For this reason, I'm hopeful of players like Grlj, Oskar Taylor, and others similar.

Id love to get Robey but we would have to trade up

32 minutes ago, Dee Boys said:

Look at other mids his age - Rowell, Anderson, Young, Serong, Green, Day etc.

There's no way Rivers is anywhere near their tier.

He's got too many deficiencies but will be a nice B grader.

Curious what you think his deficiencies are as a mid? Hard to compare him on players who have spent most of their career so far in there but curious on your thoughts.

1 hour ago, Dee Boys said:

Look at other mids his age - Rowell, Anderson, Young, Serong, Green, Day etc.

There's no way Rivers is anywhere near their tier.

He's got too many deficiencies but will be a nice B grader.

I think he could have an A grade ceiling at half back...

6 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

I think he could have an A grade ceiling at half back...

I think he’s much better at half back.

1 hour ago, Dee Boys said:

Look at other mids his age - Rowell, Anderson, Young, Serong, Green, Day etc.

There's no way Rivers is anywhere near their tier.

He's got too many deficiencies but will be a nice B grader.

It'll be very interesting to see how it plays out, he's going to get the opportunity though by all reports.

1 hour ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

Curious what you think his deficiencies are as a mid? Hard to compare him on players who have spent most of their career so far in there but curious on your thoughts.

His decision making under pressure is poor/panicked and he had the worst missed tackle percentage this season of any footballer in the competition to have played a senior game.

He’ll do a job in the midfield but he’s nowhere near the level of those aforementioned.

Edited yesterday at 04:411 day by Dee Boys

35 minutes ago, Dee Boys said:

His decision making under pressure is poor/panicked and he had the worst missed tackle percentage this season of any footballer in the competition to have played a senior game.

He’ll do a job in the midfield but he’s nowhere near the level of those aforementioned.

Thanks for respons. Agree needs to clean up his defensive actions. His decision making under pressure is not poor though he has the occasional howler that sticks in the mind. Most of those have been when playing half back and I think will be less of an issue in the midfield. I think he will get a long run at the midfield in 2026 so will be interesting to see how far he climbs.

4 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

Dare I say, and this is certainly not a direct comparison nor even any acknowledgement of similarity with Josh Lindsay, the Toumpas trap.

Toumpas was a great kick, clever, high character, classy and had a whole lot of very good AFL traits. The problem is that they were stuck behind ordinary athleticism from a low-contest player. That meant that we barely got to see his clever ball use because we didn’t get much of it and was smashed as soon as he did.

If I were to pick up that type of player I’d prefer to do it later in the draft where I’m hoping to get role players rather than core pieces of the team.

As for Lindsay, I’d like to see more before having a strong opinion about him.

Go back and watch Toumpas highlight reel from the draft. He was very average and this followed onto afl form. No idea how we picked him after watching his highlight reel again

On Gettable Cal says its unlikely clubs will be trading up in the top 10.

Then he linked clubs with the following players, though sounded more like his thoughts on what clubs could do rather than proper mail.

West Coast: CDT, Duursma

Richmond: Grlj, Robey, Cumming, X Taylor

Essendon: Robey, X Taylor, Sharp, Cumming, Farrow, Schubert

3 hours ago, BangBnagBang said:

Port have stated they dont rate the draft at all and have traded almost completely out of it to a point they may just upgrade 3 rookies and not take take anyone on draft night.

There are quite a few SA prospects in Twomey's top 30. Five in the first 20 and nine in the first 30. I think that's a lot more than usual and SA won the championship, unbeaten. It's a curious position for Port to take.

3 hours ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Surprised not to see any interest for Aidan Schubert; strongly built 198cm Ruck/Forward.
Seen him expected to go anywhere from 8-14 in the draft.

think everyone is scared after how the last two first round tall selections faired, not to mention lucas cook

of course theres recent examples of high picks making it as key forwards see thilthorpe, curnow, daniher, hogan cadman, 2MP

but theres also successful rookies, treacy, neale, larkey, mitch lewis, so maybe its time we start targetting that section of the draft for talls,

was talking to a guy at work about talls in the draft and theres a direct correlation between tall forwards and defenders, has harry dean looked better this year because the tall forwards arent very good, has schubert looked better coz the best key defender is his teammate thredgold so he's not been challenged and just dominated smaller bodies. i think its too much of a gamble

5 hours ago, Adam The God said:

If we did this deal, it'd tell us very clearly what JT thinks of this draft crop, and potentially what he thinks about the next.

When we traded out of this year's draft last year, we also would have been aware of the likelihood of Trac requesting a trade again this year (despite pizzas) and would have planned to get back into this year's first round via picks from Trac.

This sort of planning would almost certainly be done.

I was expanding on the idea if we really want to trade up for Robey in my head, which might be partly activated by not loving the talent at 7 and 8 ...

From above: Our F1 + 7 to WC for 2 + 13

That leaves us with 2, 8, 13 and GC F1

Then if we did 8 to Port for their F1 that would leave us with 2, 13, Port F1, GC F1 which is a better spread.

All along we'd have to love Robey and Port would have to love an SA prospect.

I agree with others that the neatest outcome would be to use 7 and 8, and retain the two F1s for next year for another hit at Humphrey or to take to a better draft.

But I was just speculating alternatives.

I think what makes this draft weaker than others are the question marks over a couple of fairly talented players between 5-15.

I expect Rich/WC/Dons to take Duursma/Sharp/Grjl or Robey by 7 and 8. Therefore, we are left with some key position players or questionable mids.

Therefore, I think the smart decision is to trade up to access a player you are very confident will be good (likely Robey) and then slide to pick a more speculative later pick such as Jevan Phillipou or Oskar Taylor.

At 7/8 I think both will end up as speculative.

So it’s 7&8? Let’s see how that might work out 

1. WCE -Willem Duursma

   Suns match bid …Zeke Uwland (academy)

2. WCE -Cooper Duff-Tytler   

3. Rich Sam Grlj 🤩

   Lions bid match … Daniel Annable (academy)

4. Rich. Sullivan Robey 🤩

   Suns bid match … Dylan Patterson (academy)

5. Ess. Dyson Sharp.

   Blues bid match. Harry Dean (Carlton f/son)

6. Ess. Xavier Taylor

   7&8 contenders

   Josh Lindsay (Vic)✅✅

   Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (Vic)✅

   Lachlan Dovaston (Vic)✅

   Sam Cumming (SA) 

   Jacob Farrow (WA)

   Oliver Greeves (Vic)

   Beau Addinsall (Suns academy)✅

   smokie. Oskar Taylor

   
   

4 hours ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Surprised not to see any interest for Aidan Schubert; strongly built 198cm Ruck/Forward.
Seen him expected to go anywhere from 8-14 in the draft.

Would be very very low on my list of who I want. Would be lengths behind his SA teammate Mitch Marsh, who himself isn’t particularly high

21 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

So it’s 7&8? Let’s see how that might work out 

1. WCE -Willem Duursma

   Suns match bid …Zeke Uwland (academy)

2. WCE -Cooper Duff-Tytler   

3. Rich Sam Grlj 🤩

   Lions bid match … Daniel Annable (academy)

4. Rich. Sullivan Robey 🤩

   Suns bid match … Dylan Patterson (academy)

5. Ess. Dyson Sharp.

   Blues bid match. Harry Dean (Carlton f/son)

6. Ess. Xavier Taylor

   7&8 contenders

   Josh Lindsay (Vic)✅✅

   Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (Vic)✅

   Lachlan Dovaston (Vic)✅

   Sam Cumming (SA) 

   Jacob Farrow (WA)

   Oliver Greeves (Vic)

   Beau Addinsall (Suns academy)✅

   smokie. Oskar Taylor

   
   

Seems like our picks are going to fall just short of the top players in this draft which is a shame

There’s a few names I like in your list - Lindsay, Dovaston and Taylor in particular - but they all come with question marks

Just a quick look at a couple of average/poor draft years, first round picks...

2016 - 1 was McGrath - average player, 2 was Taranto, 3 McLuggage and 19 English.

To me McLuggage is the pick of that lot...

2020 - 1 JUH a write off to date, 2 Thilthorpe, 20 Holmes, 21 Bowey

Holmes probably the pick but the other 2 are good.

There were of course some other serviceable players in both drafts but if you look at EFC's 3 first rounders in 2020 then it was an average draft.

Add that to McGrath in 2016 and no wonder they have struggled.

The point is...I hope we can find something in this draft (over to you JT) and hold both our picks for 2026 where we're more likely to land an A grader.

Unlikely to replace Trac and Oliver from this years crop but development to Langford, Lindsay, Windsor and co plus a refreshed club is where we could make gains.

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

So it’s 7&8? Let’s see how that might work out 

1. WCE -Willem Duursma

   Suns match bid …Zeke Uwland (academy)

2. WCE -Cooper Duff-Tytler   

3. Rich Sam Grlj 🤩

   Lions bid match … Daniel Annable (academy)

4. Rich. Sullivan Robey 🤩

   Suns bid match … Dylan Patterson (academy)

5. Ess. Dyson Sharp.

   Blues bid match. Harry Dean (Carlton f/son)

6. Ess. Xavier Taylor

   7&8 contenders

   Josh Lindsay (Vic)✅✅

   Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (Vic)✅

   Lachlan Dovaston (Vic)✅

   Sam Cumming (SA) 

   Jacob Farrow (WA)

   Oliver Greeves (Vic)

   Beau Addinsall (Suns academy)✅

   smokie. Oskar Taylor

   
   

I like Lindsay and think he'd be a good understudy and replacement to Salem. Shame his highlights are all half volleys outside off and don't show a lot of defense. If Kings game plan is anything like Geelong's I see a place for a mosquito fleet and Dovaston. He looked good in the Box Hill game. If this draft is anything like the 2020 one though which I looked at after Phillips delisting today I worry.

50 minutes ago, demoncat said:

Seems like our picks are going to fall just short of the top players in this draft which is a shame

There’s a few names I like in your list - Lindsay, Dovaston and Taylor in particular - but they all come with question marks

I don't think our list is as bad as others think it is though. Watching from behind the goals at the Collingwood game in the last round the shape and aggression to bring the ball back in board and the over lap run from behind was so much more on trend. And TC only had a few weeks. Goody's head and heart were stuck in 2021 and it showed in selection and strategy.

If JT likes someone I don't mind the idea of betting on ourselves and using our F1st. Get someone who will play a full season and help us win some games, then couple picks who will spend periods at Casey.

*Granted I just said Phillips went at three in 2020 😅

Edited yesterday at 09:101 day by shakeandbake

Would any of these scenarios make sense for either clubs?

Ess- 5 & 21 for 7 & 8

NMFC - F1 & 25 for 7 or 8

Rich - 4 & F2 for 7 & 8

1 minute ago, Mouseymoo said:

Would any of these scenarios make sense for either clubs?

Ess- 5 & 21 for 7 & 8

NMFC - F1 & 25 for 7 or 8

Rich - 4 & F2 for 7 & 8

The Norf one might. If they're desperate enough to jump the draft order to land Doveston

The club recruiters do not always rank players the same as the 'experts'. A month before Windsor's draft he was ranked around 13/14 ish by the experts.

I think Jacob Farrow would be a good pick up. Good size, Got plenty of ball in the WAFL Colts and also got a lot in his senior WAFL games. Rookie me compares him to Young of Freo. Has mid potential later. See rookie me - profile and analysis looks good. Jacob Farrow Draft Profile - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central (formerly AFL Draft Central)

If we are worried about Fritter leaving Mitch Marsh as a 3rd tall might be a good pick up if available. Mitchell Marsh Draft Profile - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central (formerly AFL Draft Central)

If we want small forward pace, skill and pressure Dovestan might well be considered. Experts suggest it might be a reach but recruiters may not agree. Needs a bit of bulk but has mid potential later. Certainly not a 'bland' or vanilla type of player. Lachy Dovaston Draft Profile - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central (formerly AFL Draft Central)

Kingy wants to play fast, high scoring footy so he needs pace and a bit of X factor amongst endurance pressure etc. At our picks we should be looking for players with a point of difference.

I doudt we will look to draft a very tall KPF but the best one could be available at our picks. Aidan Schubert Draft Profile - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central (formerly AFL Draft Central)