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Are contested possessions a 'key indicator of success'?

WheeloRatings
WheeloRatings
in Melbourne Demons

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I had the privilege of collaborating (in a small way) with Cody Atkinson on the following article regarding contested possessions. These guys regularly put out fantastic and insightful AFL articles for the ABC and are well worth a read.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-19/afl-2024-premiership-importance-of-contested-possessions/104113954

 

The contested possession has increasingly gained prominence in recent years, with players, coaches, commentators and fans offering different opinions on its role in the AFL.

Star Sydney Swans midfielder Errol Gulden has described contested possessions as "a key indicator for success", but not everyone in the AFL is enamoured by the concept.

"Contested ball is just a fancy term for everyone in the media," Alastair Clarkson said in 2016.

"We don't give a toss about that … we've won five contested-ball contests in about two years, so we've still won lots of games of footy."

So how important are contested possessions?

And what even is a contested possession?

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    In accordance with the laws of the game, a contested possession is a possession achieved as a result of winning a contest. Includes hard ball gets, loose ball gets, contested marks, free kicks won in a contest, and contested knock-ons. I have no idea how important they are. Are they important? Or does it simply depend on your game style/plan, the type of players you have, your opposition on the day? 

    Edited by Ethan Tremblay

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    Have loose ball gets always been a contested possession? 

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      On 19/07/2024 at 08:21, WheeloRatings said:

    I had the privilege of collaborating (in a small way) with Cody Atkinson on the following article regarding contested possessions. These guys regularly put out fantastic and insightful AFL articles for the ABC and are well worth a read.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-19/afl-2024-premiership-importance-of-contested-possessions/104113954

     

    The contested possession has increasingly gained prominence in recent years, with players, coaches, commentators and fans offering different opinions on its role in the AFL.

    Star Sydney Swans midfielder Errol Gulden has described contested possessions as "a key indicator for success", but not everyone in the AFL is enamoured by the concept.

    "Contested ball is just a fancy term for everyone in the media," Alastair Clarkson said in 2016.

    "We don't give a toss about that … we've won five contested-ball contests in about two years, so we've still won lots of games of footy."

    So how important are contested possessions?

    And what even is a contested possession?

    Great work wheelo.

    So win cp by 1 to 10 = 70% win 

    Win cp by 10 plus = 79% win

    And a 'blow out' is 85% win

    What's a blow out?

    Edited by binman

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      On 19/07/2024 at 08:44, Clintosaurus said:

    Have loose ball gets always been a contested possession? 

    Not sure. But if they weren’t included, Nick Daicos would have zero contested possessions against his name (for the record, he has not taken a single contested mark in the AFL).

    Edited by Ethan Tremblay

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      On 19/07/2024 at 08:48, Ethan Tremblay said:

    Not sure. But if they weren’t included, Nick Daicos would have zero contested possessions against his name (for the record, he has not taken a single contested mark in the AFL).

    That is where I was heading. I feel the definition has changed and he is the main beneficiary.

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    Great article! Wish BT would read it. Maybe he could figure out what a clearance is while he's at it. I don't think there'd be another sport in the world where the 'experts' are as unwilling to develop an understanding of the statistical side of the game as ours. 

    The biggest advantage if these things were more mainstream would be that those of us playing supercoach wouldn't have to suffer people complaining about Bontempelli scoring so well! We might as well rename the contested knock-on the Bont!

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      On 19/07/2024 at 08:48, binman said:

    Great work wheelo.

    So win cp by 1 to 10 = 70% win 

    Win cp by 10% plus = 79% win

    And a 'blow out' is 85% win

    What's a blow out?

    I don't know exactly how those figures were calculated, but my calculations are as follows:

    Win CP by 1-6: 54% win
    Win CP by 7-13: 64% win
    Win CP by 14-21: 76% win
    Win CP by 22+: 87% win

     

      On 19/07/2024 at 08:54, Clintosaurus said:

    That is where I was heading. I feel the definition has changed and he is the main beneficiary.

    My understanding is that the definition has not changed.

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      On 19/07/2024 at 09:08, WheeloRatings said:

    I don't know exactly how those figures were calculated, but my calculations are as follows:

    Win CP by 1-6: 54% win
    Win CP by 7-13: 64% win
    Win CP by 14-21: 76% win
    Win CP by 22+: 87% win

     

    My understanding is that the definition has not changed.

    Did you run the numbers on the hard ball get in terms of win rate?

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      On 19/07/2024 at 08:54, Clintosaurus said:

    That is where I was heading. I feel the definition has changed and he is the main beneficiary.

    Don't think it's changed, at least not recently. Maybe 20 or 30 years ago. Player picks up ball and makes effective disposal = brain happy point score high (too much supercoach)

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      On 19/07/2024 at 09:13, binman said:

    Did you run the numbers on the hard ball get in terms of win rate?

    It doesn't appear to be as significant (noting that the HBG differential is generally quite a bit lower than over CP diff)

    Win HBG by 1-3: 54% win
    Win HBG by 4-6: 58% win
    Win HBG by 7-9: 67% win
    Win HBG by 10+: 71% win

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      On 19/07/2024 at 09:35, WheeloRatings said:

    It doesn't appear to be as significant (noting that the HBG differential is generally quite a bit lower than over CP diff)

    Win HBG by 1-3: 54% win
    Win HBG by 4-6: 58% win
    Win HBG by 7-9: 67% win
    Win HBG by 10+: 71% win

    To flip it on it's head, what about uncontested possessions?

    Also, it would be interesting to see those CP numbers per team. I'm sure different teams have wildly different win %ages.

     

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    Perfect place to out this whacky graphic I found 20240719_162843.thumb.jpg.ca2cedb4d117f491ec490efcc059e108.jpg

     

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    A resounding yes!!

    Especially at a reading of the will.

    If your extended family are scumbags you'll understand .

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    Great talking point.

    I reckon if you look back beyond 2000, when the game was much more often one-on-one, contested play was one player beating another player in a contest in the air, or on the ground. The only real marking packs were near the goals, and there were few ground packs because it was positional game play. A loose ball get on the wing with say Robbie Flower and Keith Greig both running for it was another form of the same thing.

    It is the heart beat and foundation of our game and therefore has to be a key indicator. It is simple logic for me that to win games you first must win possession of the ball, and all other stats have meaning once the ball has been won. 

    The added phrase "key indicator of success" becomes relative to individual teams based on game plan and personnel. For example, the Geelong teams 07, 09, 11 were highly skilled and so maybe they emphasised skill more than contest. Hawks 13,14,15 were system based with Clarko's cluster. Lions 01,02,03 were probably very much based on individual players beating their opponents so might rate contested ball more highly.

    Players like Jack Viney, Scott West, Brett Ratten, Bobby Skilton, Kevin Murray, Paul Kelly - these are the payers all footy watchers love so much because they are elite at this central component.

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      On 19/07/2024 at 08:21, WheeloRatings said:

    I had the privilege of collaborating (in a small way) with Cody Atkinson on the following article regarding contested possessions. These guys regularly put out fantastic and insightful AFL articles for the ABC and are well worth a read.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-19/afl-2024-premiership-importance-of-contested-possessions/104113954

    Great article. I love the resources at Wheelo Ratings and these ABC articles with Cody Atkinson are some of the best things in the footy media landscape, so well done.

    May I ask why the Sam Sturt intercept mark in the video in the article isn't considered a contested mark? What is the specific difference between a contested and uncontested mark, according to Champion Data?

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    If you don't win contested possessions, post clearance pressure is essential to cause enough turnovers/intercepts to go back the other way.

    Clarkson and Chris Scott played this game for years. And this was part of our plan obviously in 2021-2023.

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      On 20/07/2024 at 02:08, Dee man said:

    Great article. I love the resources at Wheelo Ratings and these ABC articles with Cody Atkinson are some of the best things in the footy media landscape, so well done.

    May I ask why the Sam Sturt intercept mark in the video in the article isn't considered a contested mark? What is the specific difference between a contested and uncontested mark, according to Champion Data?

    From Champion Data:

    Uncontested Mark: Marks taken under no physical pressure from an opponent. Includes marks taken on the lead and from opposition kicks.

    Contested Mark: When a player takes a mark under physical pressure of an opponent or in a pack.

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    Nice article. Thanks for sharing. 
    I never look at contested ball, just hb gets. I always thought loose ball should be put with uncontested marks as they are almost the same thing except inviting pressure. 

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      On 19/07/2024 at 09:35, WheeloRatings said:

    It doesn't appear to be as significant (noting that the HBG differential is generally quite a bit lower than over CP diff)

    Win HBG by 1-3: 54% win
    Win HBG by 4-6: 58% win
    Win HBG by 7-9: 67% win
    Win HBG by 10+: 71% win

    How about win rate for winning the pressure ratings?

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      On 20/07/2024 at 07:10, binman said:

    How about win rate for winning the pressure ratings?

    This will be a tricky one.  MFC and Geelong were bottom 6 for pressure act difference in premiership years.  Pies must have been lucky to win last year as they were 8th while the deserved premiers (GWS or ourselves) were bottom 4. I guess when you have the ball more the opposing team has lots of opportunities to create pressure.

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      On 20/07/2024 at 08:32, Watson11 said:

    This will be a tricky one.  MFC and Geelong were bottom 6 for pressure act difference in premiership years.  Pies must have been lucky to win last year as they were 8th while the deserved premiers (GWS or ourselves) were bottom 4. I guess when you have the ball more the opposing team has lots of opportunities to create pressure.

    Pressure act differential isn't a good measure as you're likely to rank low if you have the ball more often than the opposition. Pressure rating differential would be a better measure as it's based on average pressure per disposal. This is what @binman would have been referring to. Unfortunately, I don't have access to pressure rating data, other than Melbourne for the past two seasons.

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