Everyone Saying We Will Drop

[Macca 17,033]

3 hours ago, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

Forgot to mention Tracc drifting forward also Clarry key to this happening.

That's true

We can't leave the midfield short on top level talent

The good news is that we've got a number of choices* for half back so Brayshaw can remain in the middle

But I wonder if we might revisit Brayshaw as that defensive wingman again?  Hunter could play as a high-half forward either combining with Langdon or Brayshaw

ANB to play a similar role on the other flank

But to do that we need Clarrie playing

Just a thought

 

*McVee, Bowey, Rivers, Salem

Edited February 7 by Macca

[Grr-owl 1,251]

I say if we kick straight enough, we win.

[binman 43,763]

On 07/02/2024 at 11:59, dpositive said:

I hate the emphasis on the gambling industry in our society, and always want to gamble responsibly. 

I know that losses always exceed wins and that winners profit on losers decisions. 

BUT geeeez thats a pretty generous return.

I hope there are many and only demon supporters who win this one as those who dont gamble at all win the flag brag. 

Personally, if i was framing a market for the flag i'd have the pies and the lions just about equal favorites, with us just behind (in large part because we've had more players with interrupted preseasons).

There is very little separating those three teams. You only need to look at the exposed form from last season in terms of head to head games between them for clear evidence of that fact (ie small margins, pretty much 50 50 for all head to head combos)

That said, 9.50 is not good value at all (and 5.00 for the pies to win just simply ridiculous). 

Futures bets, particularly for an event seven months away, is a total sucker bet created by the bookies to siphon money from punters (not that there would much money in GF  pools at this point). 

As Webber notes above:

• 'Where we finish depends on injuries/players available through the season. As it does for all clubs. It’s the single greatest determinant of success, even if the least sexy.'

There is no way of knowing which teams might cop key injuries at key times (like us losing every key forward, and then melk, at the business end of the season). 

Or which team might just have run of really bad luck - for example imagine taking a futures bet before the 2023 season on the crows to make the finals (or even win it), only for them to miss out because of a complete howler of a video review that knocked them out.

For the same reason, futures bets on say the Melbourne Cup are a scam by bookies (though at least if you had an interest in a horse that you knew was a star, and others didn't, you might get crazy good odds). The current favorite for the Melbourne Cup is Without A Fight at $15. I wouldn't take $15 for it to actually run!

On Webbers comment about the impact of injuries on teams chances of success, quite frankly, it amazes me that in 2024 this is just not an accepted fact.

Since the end of the last season I've taken more interest in other football codes (and to a lesser extent NBA). 

For example I've been following the Spurs fortunes closely in the EPL and the 49ers in the NFL.

The impact of injuries (and in the EPL also players missing due to international games) is forensically analyzed - and factored into predictions of how teams might go, previews of games and reviews of games.

Unlike with AFL footy, noting the impact of injuries is not reflexively dismissed as making excuses, but rather factored in as logical reasons contributing to predictions, a particular result, or run of results.   

My sense is that it is uniquely Australian phenomena that the impact of injury is not realistically factored into the media's analysis of footy, and hardly at all by fans.

I think the footy media plays a key role as it is dominated by the voices of ex footballers, many of whom played last century ,and the ridiculous make no excuses, soldier out, soldier in palaver is baked in to the coverage and therefore also the culture of the game. 

Edited February 8 by binman

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,274]

I'm not sure that we can keep playing both Langers & Hunter on the wings. Gus is a great winger (and HB, and midfielder!!) so we mightn't be able to play him on a wing. One of the young fellas might well get a crack on a wing ... 

I'm very worried about Petty. Those foot injuries are diabolical. 

JVR is really good. Very confident about his continued progression.

Clarry ... hmm. Who knows?

Sparrow ... needs to go to the next level. Hopefully he does. And Chandler.

And Kozzy needs to improve his consistency. I'm a real advocate of giving him short bursts on the ball to get him into the game.

TMac & BBB are cooked. Sadly. 

I worry about Max. He's not getting any younger, and is repeatedly assaulted.

Maysie ... great player, but on the wrong side of 30. Hopefully his inevitable slide is very gradual.

Not sure it's exactly on topic, but I really hate the filth. As for Maynard ....

 

 

[SthSea22 637]

Straight set exits 2 seasons in a row is the reasoning. List is obviously older and injury/health concerns with 2 of our best players (Clarry/Gus).

No real 2nd Ruck option if Max goes down is an issue.

We are a great season starter so those odds will be shorter come Adelaide 

[Roost it far 8,598]

44 minutes ago, binman said:

Personally, if i was framing a market for the flag i'd have the pies and the lions just about equal favorites, with us just behind (in large part because we've had more players with interrupted preseasons).

There is very little separating those three teams. You only need to look at the exposed form from last season in terms of head to head games between them for clear evidence of that fact (ie small margins, pretty much 50 50 for all head to head records)

That said, 9.50 is not good value at all (and 5.00 for the pies to win just simply ridiculous). 

Futures bets, particularly for an event seven months away, is a total sucker bet created by the bookies to siphon money from punters (not that there would much money in GF  pools at this point). 

As Webber notes above:

• 'Where we finish depends on injuries/players available through the season. As it does for all clubs. It’s the single greatest determinant of success, even if the least sexy.'

There is no way of knowing which teams might cop key injuries at key times (like us losing every key forward, and then melk, at the business end of the season). 

Or which team might just have run of really bad luck - for example imagine taking a futures bet before the 2023 season on the crows to make the finals (or even win it), only for them to miss out because of a complete howler of a video review that knocked them out.

For the same reason, futures bets on say the Melbourne Cup are a scam by bookies (though at least if you had an interest in a horse that you knew was a star, and others didn't, you might get crazy good odds). The current favorite for the Melbourne Cup is Without A Fight at $15. I wouldn't take $15 for it to actually run!

On Webbers comment about the impact of injuries on teams chances of success, quite frankly, it amazes me that in 2024 this is just not an accepted fact.

Since the end of the last season I've taken more interest in other football codes (and to a lesser extent NBA). 

For example I've been following the Spurs fortunes closely in the EPL and the 49ers in the NFL.

The impact of injuries (and in the EPL also players missing die to international games) is forensically analyzed - and factored into predictions of how teams might go, previews of games and reviews of games.

Unlike with AFL footy, noting the impact of injuries is not reflexively dismissed as making excuses, but rather factored in as logical reasons contributing to predictions, a particular result, or run of results.   

My sense is that it is uniquely Australian phenomena that the impact of injury is not realistically factored into the media's analysis of footy, and hardly at all by fans.

I think the footy media plays a key role as it is dominated by the voices of ex footballers, many of whom played last century ,and the ridiculous make no excuses, soldier out, soldier in palaver is baked in to the coverage and therefore also the culture of the game. 

I yearn for the day when the gravy train of poorly educated ex footballers with too many head knocks is stopped. I don’t think we’re far off much better football analysis and commentary becoming mainstream. It’s there with some great podcasts and articles written. Problem is you then turn the TV on and you have gorillas on serious money commentating. Then you have FOX and it’s myriad football shows either attempting comedy or telling you the plainly obvious. It’s no wonder I come here. 😂🤓

[Roost it far 8,598]

3 minutes ago, SthSea22 said:

Straight set exits 2 seasons in a row is the reasoning. List is obviously older and injury/health concerns with 2 of our best players (Clarry/Gus).

No real 2nd Ruck option if Max goes down is an issue.

We are a great season starter so those odds will be shorter come Adelaide 

I can’t see us beating Sydney, reckon we’ll be comfortably beaten in both games in Adelaide. That’s before we try and get over the Dogs, Lions, Tigers and Blues in the first 10 rounds.  It’s a hard start for a side carrying multiple injuries to key players. 

[binman 43,763]

52 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

I yearn for the day when the gravy train of poorly educated ex footballers with too many head knocks is stopped. I don’t think we’re far off much better football analysis and commentary becoming mainstream. It’s there with some great podcasts and articles written. Problem is you then turn the TV on and you have gorillas on serious money commentating. Then you have FOX and it’s myriad football shows either attempting comedy or telling you the plainly obvious. It’s no wonder I come here. 😂🤓

One of the things things that has struck me about watching EPL and NFL, two sports i know bugger all about, is how insightful the commentary and general coverage is. And how much it helps me understand the game and adds to my enjoyment as a viewer.  

They are obviously generally speaking to fans who know the sports super well, but their way of discussing the game as they commentate is so illuminating.

EPL has few breaks in the flow of the game, but they effortlessly weave really interesting info in about the teams, tactics, records etc -all while doing a great job of calling the game and not allowing their comments to destroy their flow.

The games nver have more than two callers, and when they do have two, one is the clear special comments expert who doesn't bang on about irrelevant rubbish, bang on about their pet topics or interrupt the caller. 

And in the NFL, with all its breaks, the graphics and analysis is simply amazing. I have learnt so much about different tactics and what the game is all about js from watching the coverage. the NFL also has a great balance between journalist/professional callers and ex players providing legitimately interesting and useful special comments. 

I have also been watching the Aus v West Indies and India v England tests, and the coverage is uniformly excellent.

Test cricket is a sport i DO know a lot about, yet i am constantly learning new info and deepening my knowledge about tactics, the game I'm watching and the history of the game.

On the above, this is one of the best things I've ever seen in the coverage of any sport. Just awesome: intelligent, insightful and i learnt new information that as someone who played a lot of cricket a player and lifelong lover of cricket really surprised me (for example Lara taking about premediating shots - not when slogging or chasing runs, but as part of his technique - breaking one of the immutable rules of good batting technique that was drummed into me growing up):

 

Edited February 8 by binman

[gs77 4,445]

3 hours ago, Grr-owl said:

I say if we kick straight enough, we win.

Yes. Do Collingwood win the grand final without the pinpoint set shot goals from De Goey and Sidebottom at important stages? Probably not. We need to nail those critical moments.

[Macca 17,033]

17 minutes ago, gs77 said:

Yes. Do Collingwood win the grand final without the pinpoint set shot goals from De Goey and Sidebottom at important stages? Probably not. We need to nail those critical moments.

De Goey &;Sidebottom are A grade players and clutch players

Our sharp-shooters are either not available or are carrying injuries 

Our replacement forwards can't be relied upon so the missed opportunities are going to continue

We'll have our best chance of winning consistently when most (or all) of our best forwards are available.  And that might happen sooner or later ... we just don't know when

Brown, T-Mac, Petty, Kozzie, Melksham, McAdam and even Smith are often very good in front of goal

And at this stage, most, if not all, won't be available for the Sydney game.  If so, that's dire

We can still win (somehow) but we're going to need a lot of things going our way

 

[Roost it far 8,598]

5 minutes ago, Macca said:

De Goey &;Sidebottom are A grade players and clutch players

Our sharp-shooters are either not available or are carrying injuries 

Our replacement forwards can't be relied upon so the missed opportunities are going to continue

We'll have our best chance of winning consistently when most (or all) of our best forwards are available.  And that might happen sooner or later ... we just don't know when

Brown, T-Mac, Petty, Kozzie, Melksham, McAdam and even Smith are often very good in front of goal

And at this stage, most, if not all, won't be available for the Sydney game.  If so, that's dire

We can still win (somehow) but we're going to need a lot of things going our way

 

I don’t think any realistic guide to Melbourne’s chances this year involve Brown, TMac or Schache. Schache May surprise as he still has a body that can handle an AFL season but Jeepers it’s a long bow. Smith is done you would think. So in effect bar Fritsch and JVR we’re all hoping Petty can get fit and stay fit. How many players have great seasons after missing large chunks of a pre season with a serious foot injury? Add to this the fact he’s not a key forward yet. He’s a back who’s showed some promise as a forward. Then there’s McAdam who from all reports has done a power of work to get to the standard our game demands, he’s now injured his calf. For a 29 year old with a long history of injuries what chance is he to play 20 plus games and be ready at the business end? On top of this Oliver hasn’t even begun full training yet. Look I want us to win but this has been an ordinary off season for the club. I love all the happy clappers around here, you guys rock with your training reports, enthusiasm and positivity, I’ve been there the last 4 years, I know how good it feels. This year doesn’t have that same feeling for me. I really hope I’m proven wrong. 

[Macca 17,033]

19 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

I don’t think any realistic guide to Melbourne’s chances this year involve Brown, TMac or Schache. Schache May surprise as he still has a body that can handle an AFL season but Jeepers it’s a long bow. Smith is done you would think. So in effect bar Fritsch and JVR we’re all hoping Petty can get fit and stay fit. How many players have great seasons after missing large chunks of a pre season with a serious foot injury? Add to this the fact he’s not a key forward yet. He’s a back who’s showed some promise as a forward. Then there’s McAdam who from all reports has done a power of work to get to the standard our game demands, he’s now injured his calf. For a 29 year old with a long history of injuries what chance is he to play 20 plus games and be ready at the business end? On top of this Oliver hasn’t even begun full training yet. Look I want us to win but this has been an ordinary off season for the club. I love all the happy clappers around here, you guys rock with your training reports, enthusiasm and positivity, I’ve been there the last 4 years, I know how good it feels. This year doesn’t have that same feeling for me. I really hope I’m proven wrong. 

So we essentially agree but in the last week, the availability of our forwards has diminished even further

And that's new information

So the doom & gloom merchants & happy clappers are now getting closer to being on the same page

And if you reckon I'm a happy clapper go back and read some of the stuff I posted in 2011-2013.  All I could see was gloom

But here's the thing, Roost, we can't put forward a no excuses argument for last season and then use the same argument to predict doom & gloom

And I'm specifically talking about our decimated forward line

And I don't make excuses.  For instance, I've never once blamed umpires, never done it.  Not once

 

Edited February 8 by Macca

[old55 23,687]

2 hours ago, Roost it far said:

I can’t see us beating Sydney, reckon we’ll be comfortably beaten in both games in Adelaide. That’s before we try and get over the Dogs, Lions, Tigers and Blues in the first 10 rounds.  It’s a hard start for a side carrying multiple injuries to key players. 

You mean the side that we belted up there in the last round last year with a makeshift forward line?

Grundy won't make that much difference and their captain Mills is out.

There's reasons to be positive.

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,274]

43 minutes ago, old55 said:

You mean the side that we belted up there in the last round last year with a makeshift forward line?

Grundy won't make that much difference and their captain Mills is out.

There's reasons to be positive.

I was at that match. We didn't 'belt' them.

I don't think we can rely on Fritsch to kick 5 goals every match!!

 

[old55 23,687]

30 minutes ago, Winners at last said:

I was at that match. We didn't 'belt' them.

I don't think we can rely on Fritsch to kick 5 goals every match!!

 

77-56 - I'll take 137.5% every week thanks.

Gulden could not have possibly played better and Fritsch can do better - kicked 6 in the GF.

[IRW 1,387]

On 06/02/2024 at 17:47, Pipefitter said:

I see us as the next Geelong. Every year people will be predicting our demise but we will annoy everyone hanging around year after year.  

As I recall the scorn on here for the Cats over last decade I assume yours is not a happy prognostication

I suspect it may be correct though, but then  I have always thought that being in the "conversation " year after year was a good thing for supporters,while  "bookending" Flags was  better than half a century droughts

 

Edited February 8 by IRW

[IRW 1,387]

1 hour ago, old55 said:

You mean the side that we belted up there in the last round last year with a makeshift forward line?

Grundy won't make that much difference and their captain Mills is out.

There's reasons to be positive.

You've got one objection to the post you are replying to.

Hardly a comprehensive take down.

I think Grundy might be " huge" at Sydney.

Or not

[IRW 1,387]

4 hours ago, binman said:

One of the things things that has struck me about watching EPL and NFL, two sports i know bugger all about, is how insightful the commentary and general coverage is. And how much it helps me understand the game and adds to my enjoyment as a viewer.  

They are obviously generally speaking to fans who know the sports super well, but their way of discussing the game as they commentate is so illuminating.

EPL has few breaks in the flow of the game, but they effortlessly weave really interesting info in about the teams, tactics, records etc -all while doing a great job of calling the game and not allowing their comments to destroy their flow.

The games nver have more than two callers, and when they do have two, one is the clear special comments expert who doesn't bang on about irrelevant rubbish, bang on about their pet topics or interrupt the caller. 

And in the NFL, with all its breaks, the graphics and analysis is simply amazing. I have learnt so much about different tactics and what the game is all about js from watching the coverage. the NFL also has a great balance between journalist/professional callers and ex players providing legitimately interesting and useful special comments. 

I have also been watching the Aus v West Indies and India v England tests, and the coverage is uniformly excellent.

Test cricket is a sport i DO know a lot about, yet i am constantly learning new info and deepening my knowledge about tactics, the game I'm watching and the history of the game.

On the above, this is one of the best things I've ever seen in the coverage of any sport. Just awesome: intelligent, insightful and i learnt new information that as someone who played a lot of cricket a player and lifelong lover of cricket really surprised me (for example Lara taking about premediating shots - not when slogging or chasing runs, but as part of his technique - breaking one of the immutable rules of good batting technique that was drummed into me growing up):

 

You are being very kind to the cheer squad of Australian Test Cricket  "commentators "

[binman 43,763]

21 minutes ago, IRW said:

You are being very kind to the cheer squad of Australian Test Cricket  "commentators "

A fair criticism of the old channel 9 coverage.

I can't speak to 7's team because i've only washed the fox coverage this summer. The fox lineup this summer was:

Adam Gilchrist, Brett Lee, Mark Waugh, Mel Jones, Mike Hussey, Kerry O’Keeffe, Wasim Akram, Ravi Shastri, Isa Guha, Harsha Bhogle, Brian Lara, Michael Vaughan and Ian Smith.

Of that group, the only commentator i don't really like is Mark Waugh.

And of the others  Isa Guha, Harsha Bhogle, Michael Vaughan. Mel Jones and Adam Gilchrist are among the best in the world in my humble. And i really enjoyed the insights of Lara and Akram this summer too. 

[Macca 17,033]

On 07/02/2024 at 13:59, Roost it far said:

I’ll add that as a club we should be filthy on last year and wanting to absolutely prove our mettle. I just don’t have the proof that this is the club atm. We’ve been shown to ever so slightly weaken when we’ve really needed to galvanise and push ahead. Injuries have been a factor but they’re not the reason…….

How do you know that they are not filthy on last year and wanting to prove their mettle? 

And injuries were the reason we didn't advance past the 2nd week of the finals because they happened in one area of the ground (forward line)

If the injuries were evenly spread across the ground, then that's not a reason as a team should be able to cover for a total of 4 or 5 injuries

But losing Petty, Melksham, Brown, JVR and then having to play a proppy Fritsch and a bloke on one leg (T-Mac) took it's toll

Brayshaw getting king hit meant that we couldn't play Petracca forward as well

So 4 of our better or best forwards didn't play and 2 others were not match fit

Make no mistake, having a decimated forward played a large part in the team not winning the flag

And I've never seen a team win a GF with a C- forward line.  It's never happened

Collingwood's forward line might have only been B overall but that still beats the hell out of a C- forward line

And Hill won the Norm Smith medal

Who amongst our available forwards could have been even capable of winning a NS medal if we got that far?  Chandler?  ANB? 

[Macca 17,033]

One more question @Roost it far

If you reckon that Sydney will defeat us, will that have anything to do with our  decimated forward line?

Or will our decimated forward line have no impact on the result at all?  Nothing? 

[Macca 17,033]

Most of us would be a lot more confident if this was our forward line against Sydney

HF Kozzie/Petracca  JVR      ANB/Chandler

F    Fritsch                 Petty         Melksham

Melksham had found his niche as a defensive forward,  Kozzie can be absolutely dynamic and Petty was blossoming and is a sharp-shooter. 

Petracca playing forward (for good portions) is highly dependant on whether Clarrie plays.  Without Clarrie playing, Petracca has to play predominantly on the ball otherwise we'll be conceding the midfield to Sydney

Petty was also creating separation and space for himself, which is not easily replaced.  Certainly not with a player like Schache

So 4 first choice forwards not being available to use and we can't use that as a reason if a loss occurs?  What if we lose by 1 point?  Not a reason?  

Edited February 8 by Macca

[jane02 3,749]

On 06/02/2024 at 20:58, Queanbeyan Demon said:

In 2024:

• Carltank will be found out and drop
• St Kilda will be botton 6
• Footscray will implode
• Jeelong bottom 10
• The Filth will do what they always do after they win a flag - crash and burn
• Brisbane can't win on the MCG in front of 90,000
• Port are psychos
• Steak and Kidney will run on top of the ground on the basis of home town umpiring
• Essenscum will finish 19th
• Crows will choke on their own publicity or a chicken wing - whichever comes first
• Keep GWS safe - they seem tuff
• Richmond will be relegated to the VFA
• Meth Coke will be charged with crimes against humanity
• Heavy Ho will tread water
• Horeforn will jump up but still 2 or 3 years away
• GC *ums will rise with the bullet as will Norf.

So there you have it.

1. Deez play GC in the granny
2. Maysie runs through the quarter-time huddle and flattens Dimma
3. We win by 17 goals with JVR kicking 9 straight and Trac picking up a second Normie as well as booting 2.7 and 3 OOBOTF.

I also predict the Deez will pick-up Goodstart Childcare Centres as our shorts sponsor.

Hope you are correct re the Pies. I could not stand another season of them winning again and the media fawning over them. I wish them, Geelong, Carlton and Essendon nothing but pain and misery this season.

I still haven’t forgotten what Maynard did to Gus. Still makes my blood boil.

Edited February 8 by jane02
Spell

[ANG13 2,066]

8 hours ago, Roost it far said:

I don’t think any realistic guide to Melbourne’s chances this year involve Brown, TMac or Schache. Schache May surprise as he still has a body that can handle an AFL season but Jeepers it’s a long bow. Smith is done you would think. So in effect bar Fritsch and JVR we’re all hoping Petty can get fit and stay fit. How many players have great seasons after missing large chunks of a pre season with a serious foot injury? Add to this the fact he’s not a key forward yet. He’s a back who’s showed some promise as a forward. Then there’s McAdam who from all reports has done a power of work to get to the standard our game demands, he’s now injured his calf. For a 29 year old with a long history of injuries what chance is he to play 20 plus games and be ready at the business end? On top of this Oliver hasn’t even begun full training yet. Look I want us to win but this has been an ordinary off season for the club. I love all the happy clappers around here, you guys rock with your training reports, enthusiasm and positivity, I’ve been there the last 4 years, I know how good it feels. This year doesn’t have that same feeling for me. I really hope I’m proven wrong. 

Bloody hell Roost it far has your account been hacked? Last year from memory the only game you were worried about was Hawthorn. But I am actually feeling very similar to you about this year. My biggest concern is the psychology of our players but there are plenty of other issues to worry about too. 

[deespicable me 1,498]

9 hours ago, binman said:

And in the NFL, with all its breaks, the graphics and analysis is simply amazing. I have learnt so much about different tactics and what the game is all about js from watching the coverage. the NFL also has a great balance between journalist/professional callers and ex players providing legitimately interesting and useful special comments. 

One of the major reasons our commentators don't really educate and discuss the game with enough depth and understanding is the umpiring. It is one of the glaring oversights of AFL as a sport. It's like racing not giving any credence to track bias, it's like ignoring the wind as an influence at Casey.

I really enjoy the referall system in cricket. They have 15 seconds to make the decision to "go upstairs", we all sit at home and discuss our choice as to weather it's in or out as do the comentators and it's played out with all the luck and drama of umpires call etc. There is no gag on the comentators except to keep it moving, and interesting.

In football there is a gag on discussing one of the most influential reasons for a lot of goals, the umpiring. So as the ball gets taken back to the centre to be bounced the comentators start carrying on about how this is happening and a team is getting on top but meanwhile any true football tragic is more often than not screaming at the TV for the crazy free for or the missed free against. Football is a pretty stupid sport. I love it but while umpiring is so random and inconsistent It is a sport that is very hard to make a lot of sense of.