POSTGAME: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn

[Willmoy1947 4,089]

17 hours ago, DeeZone said:

We didn’t get to the game yesterday but watched the replay when we got home and I am watching it again at the moment. We are very impressive, to hold the opposition to 2 goals in 3 quarters of football is exceptional, the hawks have a lot of young talent running around and they got away with some roughish crude tactics during the game. We only picked up 10 frees in 120 minutes of footy (wtf). All our guns fired and very impressed with Rivers this is his breakout year none of our players take a backward step and we still have lots of room for improvement. Happy with a 54 point win but could easily have been 70.

The interesting part about how well we are going is when will the shuffling of which matches to win and which to lose by Collingwood and Geelong, so as they don't meet before the GF (big proviso). I will be watching with unabated interest.

[layzie 33,810]

20 hours ago, Demonised said:

I actually like going to a game against one of the lesser clubs like Hawthorn. Plenty of seats in General Admission and on the train, generally relaxed atmosphere. 

You know, I really posted this so I could get in that 'lesser club' jibe at Hawthorn's expense.

Happy days.

You succeeded! Got me 😀

[ManDee 7,149]

4 hours ago, binman said:

Again, it's not really like an investment. My bad using for that word.

A more accurate word for the total amount wagered is turnover.

Here's an analogy.

I go to the pub tab with $100, with no access to any more cash, on a Thursday night. Punting options are predominately dogs and trots, with the occasional horse race from Japan.

There is a race of some sort i can bet on every one to two minutes. And that's what i do - at say $5 a bet.

I'm there for three hours. Let's say in that time i make 90 $5 bets. And manage to stay afloat.

Let's say I leave, happy, if not a little dopamine sick, because i had almost lost my hundred 30 minutes in but fought back and i walk out with $105 in my wallet. 

At the risk of contradicting myself, let's call the initial $100 an investment. I have made 5% ROI (boring for me as a mug punter because i have dreams of somehow turning my 100 into a 1000 with my stupid rapid-fire, vibey betting strategy - but pros are not in it for the dopamine like me)

So i have invested $100 BUT i have turned over $450 because i keep pouring any winnings straight back in. 

(if my wife is reading this - please note this is not a true story)

So if I understand this on a Friday night you can spend three hours to make $5. 

You could wash dishes at the pub for the same time and make $75.

Now I understand the term punters.

🙂

[Lucifers Hero 39,818]

My favourite part was when Spargo had a big grin on his face after his second goal - the closest I've seen to a celebration from him.  ❤️💙Charlie!!

[Dee*ceiving 1,674]

On 5/13/2023 at 11:15 PM, AllMyTeamsAreWank said:

Wouldn't mind seeing us put Rivers in the middle instead of Sparrow. He has elite disposal and can find plenty of it. 

Great point. Might be a swing option when Salem comes back. 

Riv to spend more time in the middle, Sparrow relegated to sub? 

[binman 42,973]

3 hours ago, ManDee said:

So if I understand this on a Friday night you can spend three hours to make $5. 

You could wash dishes at the pub for the same time and make $75.

Now I understand the term punters.

🙂

Yep, you understand correctly,

However, unless you really, really love washing dishes you don't really get the dopamine flowing*.

But win or lose, it flows when punting - for punters that is. Just makes non punters anxious! 

 

 * washing dishes is actually likely to trigger dopamine release, because even though it is commonly thought to be related to pleasure, its purpose is to help people get stuff done. In the example of washing dishes, dopamine is released in anticipation (ie before you start the job) of the reward of a clean kitchen helping you forge ahead and get it done.

Edited May 15, 2023 by binman

[binman 42,973]

8 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

My favourite part was when Spargo had a big grin on his face after his second goal - the closest I've seen to a celebration from him.  ❤️💙Charlie!!

It's funny you should say that. I said to a friend at the footy that in all the years i have watched footy, Spargs is the least enthusiastic celebrator of goals he kicks (but is joyous when other kick one!).

[demosaw 1,025]

5 hours ago, rpfc said:

Hi @binman’s wife! 👋

bingirl?

[layzie 33,810]

28 minutes ago, demosaw said:

bingirl?

Sadie the Cleaning lady? 

[Deestar9 1,622]

Petty out 4 to 6 ..,

[roy11 3,853]

11 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

One thing that no one has mentioned is Judd Mcvee completely blanketing Chad Wingard who kept him to just 8 disposals and had zero impact on the game.

Curious what changes they'll make to get Salem back in the team. Understand Judd will need a rest but he's doing all the right things, has great support staff to mentor him back there too

[DEE fence 5,016]

Not my usual long rant, but I re-watched the game, Rivers is so enjoyable to watch.

Viney having a great year, was worried at some of the knocks he took but have decided to call him Achilles, because unless he hurts his feet he seems unstoppable and the greatest warrior going around. 

Apart from the fact that he is injured, can people finally see why Petty is a good idea forward?

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

On 5/13/2023 at 11:15 PM, AllMyTeamsAreWank said:

Wouldn't mind seeing us put Rivers in the middle instead of Sparrow. He has elite disposal and can find plenty of it. 

Are you saying just for this week with  Sparrow out or as a longer term option?

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

8 hours ago, DEE fence said:

Apart from the fact that he is injured, can people finally see why Petty is a good idea forward?

Reckon he will/could cement this spot if given enough of an apprenticeship there DF.

For someone who's played most of his career as a defender you can't expect instant success with a 180 positional change like this.

Training it is one thing.  Applying what's learned 'in-game' along with others also playing their new role (new as they havent't played alongside Petty before) must be a real challenge for all.

There's also the craft of playing as a KF vs a tall defender.  Timing of leads, running patterns, playing a high role vs deep.  Diff defenive set-ups / methods up forward vs back.

How to run those patterns to work in with other KFs like Roohey and when the two resting rucks are about.

Add to this the mids / HBs also becoming aware of his whereabouts, lead patterns etc and starting to look for him more often when he does.  Bit of a catch 22 / positive reinforcement issue here.  The more he gets on the end of their work and converts, the more looks he'll probably get.

Think we finally started to see this really coming together in the first half on Saturday.  But alas the old foot issue again.  Bloody frustrating!

Having said that i reckon BBB will do ok if he gets the call up.  Hopefully Macca also if he's fully over any ankle niggles.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[binman 42,973]

8 hours ago, DEE fence said:

Apart from the fact that he is injured, can people finally see why Petty is a good idea forward?

 

I'm coming 'round.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 5/14/2023 at 3:06 PM, binman said:

There is no right or wrong as such with betting markets. They are simply a market driven expression of the probability of a particualr event occuring. 

And punting is about making your own assessment of the probability of a certain event occuring and if it dffiers from that of the market betting your assesmsnt is more accurate. 

Yes, I know how it works. The point you have repeatedly made is that the betting market is a better indicator of winning chances than fans' often unrealistic expectations. I agree with that but the point I was trying to make is that markets set based on aggregated wagers are also far from perfect ways of assessing risk. They assume perfect knowledge from all participants.

I'm not a gambling man but that is because I know I lack the discipline to avoid bias affecting my gambling and you have to be pretty good to overcome the bookies' margins (and I don't have the time or inclination to even attempt to overcome a rigged system). Still I think if someone wants to have a bit of fun using disposable income then good luck to them!