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2023 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch

Whispering_Jack
Whispering_Jack
in Melbourne Demons

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Colby McKercher will be going to the Tasmanian team in 2028 - nothing is surer.  The club that selects him will be well compensated in draft picks.

North would be ill-advised to pick him because if they do he'll be coming through with their current injection of youth and will lose him just when they are really improving.  They won't want a new draft pick then.

Melbourne would also be ill-advised to pick him because he'll be leaving just as Petracca and Oliver come to wards the end of their careers.  We won't want a new draft pick then, we'll want a ready-to-go replacement.

A club like Sydney or Fremantle would be in the best position to take him.  They have young, already developed midfields and McKercher would augment them over the next 5 years.  Then they can use the compensation pick to draft replacements for these their guns, replacements who can develop in parallel with them for latter half of their careers.  The issue for Fremantle is they won't have a pick to take him of course.

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      On 11/08/2023 at 00:45, old55 said:

    Colby McKercher will be going to the Tasmanian team in 2028 - nothing is surer.  The club that selects him will be well compensated in draft picks.

    North would be ill-advised to pick him because if they do he'll be coming through with their current injection of youth and will lose him just when they are really improving.  They won't want a new draft pick then.

    Melbourne would also be ill-advised to pick him because he'll be leaving just as Petracca and Oliver come to wards the end of their careers.  We won't want a new draft pick then, we'll want a ready-to-go replacement.

    A club like Sydney or Fremantle would be in the best position to take him.  They have young, already developed midfields and McKercher would augment them over the next 5 years.  Then they can use the compensation pick to draft replacements for these their guns, replacements who can develop in parallel with them for latter half of their careers.  The issue for Fremantle is they won't have a pick to take him of course.

    So he'd be inclined to leave Melbourne for Tassie because we will be on the decline but yet happy to stay in Sydney or Freo because their list has far more greater potential?

    Okay mate.

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    Geez Daz I like your work but it seems this time you stopped reading too soon.

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      On 11/08/2023 at 00:45, old55 said:

    Colby McKercher will be going to the Tasmanian team in 2028 - nothing is surer.  The club that selects him will be well compensated in draft picks.

    North would be ill-advised to pick him because if they do he'll be coming through with their current injection of youth and will lose him just when they are really improving.  They won't want a new draft pick then.

    Melbourne would also be ill-advised to pick him because he'll be leaving just as Petracca and Oliver come to wards the end of their careers.  We won't want a new draft pick then, we'll want a ready-to-go replacement.

    A club like Sydney or Fremantle would be in the best position to take him.  They have young, already developed midfields and McKercher would augment them over the next 5 years.  Then they can use the compensation pick to draft replacements for these their guns, replacements who can develop in parallel with them for latter half of their careers.  The issue for Fremantle is they won't have a pick to take him of course.

    Why is everyone so worried about Tasmania?

    I’m still skeptical that it happens within that timeframe.

    If we got 5 years out of them and they leave worth similar or even more, it’s a win/win. You know Tasmania will have a well stocked war chest to get the players they want. We can then use draft capital for ready made players via trade, don’t have to go after more kids.

     

    Edited by BW511

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      On 11/08/2023 at 01:19, dazzledavey36 said:

    So he'd be inclined to leave Melbourne for Tassie because we will be on the decline but yet happy to stay in Sydney or Freo because their list has far more greater potential?

    Okay mate.

    I didn't say he's going to stay at Sydney or Fremantle, I said he'd leave but they would benefit more from the draft pick compensation. Mate.

    Edited by old55

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      On 11/08/2023 at 01:23, Damo said:

    Geez Daz I like your work but it seems this time you stopped reading too soon.

    No, I didn't.

    You can't just openly say there's no point picking certain draftees purely because he'll definitely go home to Tassie once they enter the AFL system in 2028. Clutching at straws is 'Old' with zero evidence or information to back this up.

    A lot can change once draftees are in the AFL system and our player retention rate over the last 6-8 years has been excellent.

    Jason Taylor has openly stated that home sickness has never been a level of concern or taken into consideration when looking into draftee selection.  

    No coincidence that we've also drafted more interstate players then home grown in the past couple of years.

    @old55 contradiction himself here as well.

    He says that Melbourne would be ill advised to pick him because he'll most definitely leave a team that will be on the decline with our aging stars such as Petracca and Oliver to then go to a team that will be starting off and most likely won't even content for finals until 5-6 years into the system? 

    By then McKercher is already into his 30's and probably battling to keep his spot

    Does he then actually not realise also Sydney actually have an older list demographic then Melbourne? 

    Edited by dazzledavey36

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      On 11/08/2023 at 01:42, dazzledavey36 said:

    No, I didn't.

    You can't just openly say there's no point picking certain draftees purely because he'll definitely go home to Tassie once they enter the AFL system in 2028. Clutching at straws is 'Old' with zero evidence or information to back this up.

    A lot can change once draftees are in the AFL system and our player retention rate over the last 6-8 years has been excellent.

    Jason Taylor has openly stated that home sickness has never been a level of concern or taken into consideration when looking into draftee selection.  

    No coincidence that we've also drafted more interstate players then home grown in the past couple of years.

    @old55 contradiction himself here as well.

    He says that Melbourne would be ill advised to pick him because he'll most definitely leave a team that will be on the decline with our aging stars such as Petracca and Oliver to then go to a team that will be starting off and most likely won't even content for finals until 5-6 years into the system? 

    By then McKercher is already into his 30's and probably battling to keep his spot

    Does he then actually not realise also Sydney actually have an older list demographic then Melbourne? 

    Colby McKercher - captain of the first Tasmanian Premiership team

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      On 11/08/2023 at 01:44, old55 said:

    Colby McKercher - captain of the first Tasmanian Premiership team

    The chances of that happening are slim to none, just ask Gold Coast and GWS

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      On 11/08/2023 at 01:44, old55 said:

    Colby McKercher - captain of the first Tasmanian Premiership team

    You have more chance of Colin Garland pulling on the boots for the new Tassie team then this actually happening.

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      On 11/08/2023 at 01:48, BW511 said:

    The chances of that happening are slim to none, just ask Gold Coast and GWS

    I asked West Coast, Adelaide and Port Adelaide and they all said it's possible.

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    The Tassie team will also spend their first year in the VFL. If we pick either of the two Tassie mids I can’t see them leaving the first year as they should be on top of their game at that stage and wasted in the VFL. 
    So we should get 6 years out of them as a minimum and then get very well compensated should they leave. 
    I do think we would have to rate them as a high chance to have an early impact on the starting 22. No point having them spend the majority of their first couple of years at Casey. 

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    Need to pick players who can work their way into our starting 22 in the next 2 years and push us to more premierships in the next 6 years to maximise Petracca and Oliver as well as Max, May, Viney, Lever, Brayshaw, Salem etc. If that is a Tassie player...give me 1+ more premierships and I will help drive you to the airport (with decent compensation of course).  

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      On 11/08/2023 at 01:37, BW511 said:

    Why is everyone so worried about Tasmania?

    I’m still skeptical that it happens within that timeframe.

    If we got 5 years out of them and they leave worth similar or even more, it’s a win/win. You know Tasmania will have a well stocked war chest to get the players they want. We can then use draft capital for ready made players via trade, don’t have to go after more kids.

     

    I don't know but people worrying about players potentially heading home for Tassie in 5 years are like the people who hoarded toilet paper during COVID. 

    Edited by layzie

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      On 11/08/2023 at 01:53, old55 said:

    I asked West Coast, Adelaide and Port Adelaide and they all said it's possible.

    The link is they were newly created,  but in Aussie Rules states, like Tassie is. Gold Coast and GWS were created to raise AFL profile and interest in highly populated, but Rugby states. It will take a lot more time, if ever, for them to become self sufficient in talent or revenue. 

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    https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/department-of-trade/afl-trade-news-rumours-whispers-melbourne-demons-to-trade-up-draft-board-early-pick-selections-kai-lohmann-latest/news-story/093c26e637ef117f9a737993fd57655f

    Nothing earth shattering but confirms that we've already held preliminary discussions with clubs around trading up in the draft, both in reference to pick 4 and our later picks.

    Suggests we are well placed, as are the Roos, to make a play for Reid.

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      On 11/08/2023 at 05:40, Palace Dees said:

    The link is they were newly created,  but in Aussie Rules states, like Tassie is. Gold Coast and GWS were created to raise AFL profile and interest in highly populated, but Rugby states. It will take a lot more time, if ever, for them to become self sufficient in talent or revenue. 

    The very point I was making. When thinking about the future success of the Tamanian team it's likely to be more relevant to consider the experience of WC, the Crows and Port - all teams who won flags within the career span of an AFL player, rather than GC or GWS.

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      On 11/08/2023 at 06:37, old55 said:

    The very point I was making. When thinking about the future success of the Tamanian team it's likely to be more relevant to consider the experience of WC, the Crows and Port - all teams who won flags within the career span of an AFL player, rather than GC or GWS.

    Yep, mine was a comment of support of what you were saying. Totally agree. 

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      On 13/08/2023 at 10:57, Nascent said:

    Highlights of Dan Curtin in his senior WAFL debut.

     

    would expect he will be gone by our pick 6, as it will be pushed out to, you would think

    still gotta focus on getting #1 and harley reid

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      On 13/08/2023 at 11:00, whatwhat say what said:

    would expect he will be gone by our pick 6, as it will be pushed out to, you would think

    still gotta focus on getting #1 and harley reid

    Well and truly gone you'd imagine. And with that, probably any chance of getting Harley Reid.

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      On 13/08/2023 at 11:03, Nascent said:

    Well and truly gone you'd imagine. And with that, probably any chance of getting Harley Reid.

    not necessarily

    gc17 are still going to want to jettison that early pick

    something that often gets forgotten is that clubs can only go into the draft with as many list spots as they have available

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      On 13/08/2023 at 11:05, whatwhat say what said:

    not necessarily

    gc17 are still going to want to jettison that early pick

    something that often gets forgotten is that clubs can only go into the draft with as many list spots as they have available

    No doubt gold coast pick is in play, but West Coast won't trade 1 unless they have a guarantee that Curtin is available allegedly. 

    Won't matter if we offer pick 5 and 6 if he's gone at pick 3 or 4.

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