Our win/Loss ratio after round 8

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,820]

I've been reading the site after the loss against Hawthorn and came across the notion from some scribes that we could be 0-8 after round 8. At first I thought 'thats crazy', the Dees will be good enough to win at least half of those games.

However after coming to the realisation that we've got the injury list the size of Mount Hotham (pardon the pun), a midfield lacking some serious grunt and missing our best player, a defence that has conceded 11 stupid free kick goals in the last 2 weeks and a forward line that can't crumb a goal to save themselves, we're in trouble.

I saw the warning signs in the NAB Cup/Regional Series when they refused to take the thing seriously and expected it all to click in round 1. For anyone that saw the saw the Geelong game at Skilled (Mar 17th) will know what I'm talking about.

So lets look at the next 6 weeks. ( I had us pencilled in for 4 wins after round 4 because they were all at the G...not anymore)

Round 3 V Geelong (MCG) - The Cats' foward line was absolutely on fire last weekend and should be too much to handle for our defence. Perhaps the unpredictability of Geelong may save us. 25/75

Round 4 V Freo (MCG) - Dockers may be 0-3 (WCE this week) heading into this one. Will be absoluetley pumped for this one and it will be hard to fathom a top 4 fancy will continue to lose games. Play the MCG better than the Dome. 25/75

Round 5 V Sydney (SCG) - How many years in a row can we keep pulling off upsets up there. Have won the last 3 games in Sydney, but it would be hard to see them doing it again. Perhaps a change of scenary might do the Dees the world of good. 40/60.

Rouind 6 V Port Adelaide (MCG) - I firmly believe this will be the Dees first win for the season. Port have never knocked us off at the MCG. Hopefully Neitz, Robbo and Pickett will be fit for this one. 75/25.

Round 7 V Western Bulldogs (Dome) - Considering how well the Doggies play at the Dome, and how awful we are there, I can't see us getting close in this one. 20/80

Round 8 V West Coast (Subiaco) - No comment required.

I think 1-7 or 2-6 is most realistic. I believe we will start winning constantly from round 11, however many factors have conspired against us so far.

Thoughts...

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Someone on 'ology posted something along these lines. Worrying isn't it? I remember looking at the fixture, and at the form of all 16 teams last year and saying we are a chance to win the first 10-12 matches, or something like that. Boy is my face red.

[beelzebub 23,372]

BBP...was only lookig at the fixture myself earlier with exactly the same sense of dread. Im not even quite so sure we will get Port.. if Tredrea hasnt clisked, then possibly but if his curent form in the SANFL is a guide he may be in for a pearler of a year. The worry is once we lose a few then a win becomes harder mentally to atain.

If it takes till round 11 to start firing its all over to be honest....thats a lot of catch up footy. But I agree...its not looking too good is it !!

[occo 2]

So y dont we try and finish bottom 4, get some picks like what im suggesting in 'a cleanout needed topic'. Lets get some quality picks and begin to rebuild

[Jaded No More 68,915]

I think 1-7 or 2-6 is most realistic. I believe we will start winning constantly from round 11, however many factors have conspired against us so far.

Thoughts...

If that's the case, it will be far too late.

From round 11 onwards we:

- Play at TD 3 times

- Have 4 interstate games

- Play Freo, Doggies and Sydney... all top 4 contenders.

If we're 2-6 at Round 8, we can absolutely kiss our season goodbye.

Watch us crumble like we always do, with the negative defeatist mid-set setting in, and Daniher's career as coach well and truly over.

If we're 2-6 at Round 8, we may as well go all out to try and score a good draft pick and maybe secure a top ruckman/ defender/ FF. Afterall, the aim of this year was to finish top 4 and have a real go at winning a premiership. Scraping into the 8 again is about as useful as [censored] on a bull.

But for the love of all that is red and blue, I desperately hope that you're wrong and that we'll start coming alive next week.

[beelzebub 23,372]

the major problem facing any majr form reversal...is the cattle.. .. the game makers are slowly writing them-selves off !! with our best onfiled and a change of fortunes...we have a glimmer... with some of our best and normally most reliable sideined...its not looking all that chirpy !! If the Rev has any blessed favours in reserve...now would be a really good time !!

[Johnny Karate 559]

the major problem facing any majr form reversal...is the cattle.. .. the game makers are slowly writing them-selves off !! with our best onfiled and a change of fortunes...we have a glimmer... with some of our best and normally most reliable sideined...its not looking all that chirpy !! If the Rev has any blessed favours in reserve...now would be a really good time !!

This is a very well made point.

As for the thread title, I reckon we'll be 4-4 after round 8.

While everybody is justifyably pessimistic at this point it should be remembered that this is a very even competition. While it is conceivable that we lose all six, on the flipside we could very easily win all six.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,820]

I desperately hope that you're wrong and that we'll start coming alive next week.

Me too Jaded!

That thought going on at the back of my head keeps on telling me that we will recover, and be just fine (like last year after round 3) but I'm not so sure this year.

[Dreamin' Demon 10]

Think of the cattle that we do have that arent injured & how badly they played over the last 2 weeks. Surely, if they snap out of their bad form, we can win a few of the MCG games!!!

Hell, maybe even pinch some games interstate & TD. I'm holding out hope - we cant get any worse.

[CARN THE DEES! 14]

Have some faith boys please!!

We are not out yet and we will beat freo at the G because it is the week after the derby and they will be very tired. Also if they win against WCE then they will get on the [censored] and fall over against us.

Sydney we can win. Done it b4 also if Hall is out then that is a big plus and they have no other forward line besides O laughlin whos form is questionable.

Port have no chance against us.

Bulldogs will be a tough match. Free flowing and if we dont hold down there midfield then we will lose. After there game against Adeliade i believe we can beat them.

And then as of last year we go out against WCE and they take down are winning streak. Hopefully dont give up and maybe we could actually play the run and carry at Subico and look alot better.

Ive saved Geelong last for a reason. If we can beat Geelong this week without Neitz or Robbo or anyone else who is out then we really have a chance this season. How much would it lift the boys if we can beat them while still missing crucial players? A [censored] load basically and turn our season around.

I dont think we will win by much in any game cept the Port game and we can come out 4-4 or hopefully 5-3. I reckon if we beat Geelong then its definatly 5-3 or maybe if were lucky 6-2 but some say im leaving the dreaming land.

[mordja 187]

Sorry but we were in nowhere near this bad shape last year at rd 2.

Im not going to make prophetic suggestions, but we are in trouble

[beelzebub 23,372]

being perfectly mater of fact here.... tis going to be interesting to look back at this point come the end of round 8.

Hope for all the world the sky lightens up a bit and the storm clouds dissipate. Have to agree Geelong without real ammunition is a test. By some miracle get over that and much can still be salvaged. Falter...and ...well lets not think too much about that, suffice to say Danners might pick up a copy of Old Moore's Almanac and start planning his next year !!

[praha 11,240]

I think that the first 2 games of the season were 2 games we needed to win. I can see us going 0-8. If that happens, I'd expect Daniher to be gone after 0-5.

[Dee*ceiving 1,674]

Didn't we lose to Carlton in rd 1 last year? A team who managed 2 more wins for the year, another against Melbourne of course.

Then we were smashed by the Dogs at the dome in rd 2. I think we were just as bad last year as this year.

The difference this year is that we are now facing several weeks without our captain, next captain and spearhead.

We also have our most experienced available for selection player getting easy kicks in VFL, our hard nosed middle aged recruit substituting gatorade for VB in the qtr breaks at TBO and TJ and Flash walking around looking like cheech and chong.

We are screwed but the on field performances are no worse than last year at this stage.

That being said I think we can forget beating the Cats on Sunday but if we can get the team to put in 4 qtrs of honest work without the stupid frees and 50s and actually get some drive out of our supposedly better players that will be an improvement and give us a real chance to shake a win in round 4. Sometimes it only take 1 win to get a team going.

Hopefully based on that you will be able to tell that I have no idea if the glass is half empty or half full, and with melbourne who really does.

[Anders 14]

I not a pessimist I'm a realist, and I have to say we will probably only win one or two of the next six games

Geelong - who knows? Our best chance, we know they are as unpredictable as us but they should win

Freo - loss. We don't have the cattle to match it to be honest

Sydney - probable loss. We've beaten the up there before but I'd be amazed if we did it again

Port - possible win. Never beaten us at the G but they're alright. Tough one

Dogs - 50/50 we may have Neitz and McLean back by then here's hoping

Weagles - loss. pencil it in.

Neitz, mcLean and Robbo are three of our most important players. Johnno and Davey might as well not even be out there, Green too. We are missing our guns and leaving to limited blokes like Miller, Brown, Godfrey to win us games. We are in trouble. I am very afraid.