GAMEDAY: Rd 12 vs Brisbane

[dazzledavey36 54,944]

Can feel a Kozzy Pickett show coming tonight..

[layzie 33,805]

Yep need a supreme effort from Hunt. Needs to do double running.

[I'va Worn Smith 973]

2 hours ago, DemonOX said:

Well for me personally today started horribly, my mum passed away. 
 

Let hope the Dees do the right that thing and win in her memory. 

Nice memory just Monday gone I told her that the Dees were on the top of the ladder and she said “what” the surprise on her face was priceless.  Even with her memory loss she still new who the Dees were.  Never mind she forgot who the hell I was  ha ha  

Go Dees. 

Hands around your heart DOx.  Let's do it for your mum tonight.   We are an amazing family when we want to be.  LET"S Do it DEES, For D'OX's Mum.  Go Dees!!!!!!

[The Swimming Dee 1,904]

Why the hell are Brisbane wearing red socks after we couldn’t wear our jumper last week...total AFL amateur hour

[dees189227 12,394]

Time for kossie to do something tonight & step up

[Superunknown 4,217]

2 hours ago, binman said:

Indeed.

I punt on footy, but as rule not on the dees unless there is real value (Weed kick the bloody goal!). And there is a little bit of value in this game - though i predict it won't last.

Currently the lions are - just. 1.84 to us at 2.00.

But objectively we should be favorite for this game. Don't get me wrong they represent real challenge, but they are yet to win outside of Qld and sure, they have won 7 straight, so are clearly in form.

But we are 10-1 and at this point of the season the best side in the competition, having beaten three of the genuine flag contenders (four if you count the swans).  

We are the benchmark. They are the challengers.  

We travel well and this game doesn't represent a particular disruption. We were travelling anyway - and in some senses trip to Sydney is easier and less hassle than a trip to the Alice, particularly if there COVID restrictions in place. We play the ground well, having won there twice last year.

The dimensions really suit us too, at least in terms of the defensive structure, as whilst it is a touch longer than the G it is only 128m wide (the g is 138 wide) and so the lions will find it super hard to transition and get through our zone (just as the dogs dis and the equally narrow marvel). We will block the corridor again, so that option will be taken away.

They won't try and switch as much as the dogs as, one Langdon isn't playing, and two they are happy to go down the line and force a stoppage. However in doing so they will end up kicking to our talls a lot. Hopefully maxy can clunk his marks tonight. 

The other advantage we have - and it is one that we have over every other team atm - is that they will find it it much harder to negate our strength then we will theirs.

They play much differently to the bulldogs (more deliberate, less frenetic, more patient transition) but like the dogs their key strength is their ability to score from stoppages. But their focus is much more on winning around the ground stoppage clearances, as opposed to centre square clearances, and scoring from them. If we can match them in that area they will struggle to score.

And there is no reason we wont match them at around the ground stoppages. We have the best ruck in the AFL, whose strength is stoppages, and a gun midfield.  

And Harmes is back as everyone's favorite tagger. I expect he will go to Mcluggage. Or pehasp Zorko.

Putting Rich under pressure when he kick will also be important, so Hunt and rivers coming up the contest will help. 

I'm predicting the clearances numbers will be the opposite to the dogs games ie we lose centre square clearances and break even or win around the ground stoppages.

Their other obvious strength is their forward line - a fantastic balance of gun talls and mids. But we have tools to negate that set up that other teams don't.

One, we will make it hard for them to actually get in there.

Two, if on, we will apply enough pressure to make their inside 50 kicks messy.

And three we have the best defence in the AFL.

They will let Danaher push up the ground and May will have the strength to take Mcstay. Hibberd will do a job on Cameron and i reckon Petty has the athleticism to go with Hipgood. And Lever is in rare form so will be there to do what he does.

They of course will look to negate our strength - which might mean for instance running a defensive forward on Lever and/or Salem.

And they will do a better job than other teams of avoiding dump kicks into their forward line for us to intercept and bounce off half back. Even so, our post clearance pressure is the best in the AFL and we will win our share of ground balls inside their 50. 

But negating a defensive strength is less impactful than negating an offensive strength (even though we do score a bit from the back half). And running defensive forwards has a downside as it make is harder to score - as was the case for the Swans. 

For me the key to the game is how well we trap them in our forward half. And critical to that is forward half pressure and making sure any exit kick is under maximin pressure. Stopping Andrews taking intercept marks will also be important.

If we trap in our forward half them well, and the width of the ground will help, and match them at round the ground stoppages i think we win. 

For all those reasons i have tipped us tonight to win by 27 points. Because that show much we win by.  

And that is also why i think the odds are skeweiff. Neale's inclusion gave them a bounce but the pools are pretty small at this point. The big punters will step in soon and i suspect we will either start a narrow or equal favourite. As we should.

But all that is predicted on us bring our full heat. Because i have no doubt they will. And i expect them to be very physical, so it will be interesting to see how we respond.  And to be clear, i won't be at all surprised if they win. 

Should be cracking game. Can't wait.

Good thing i don't have to wait long. Just love these Friday night games!

Go Redlegs 

 

We do you get info on the pools

great précis!

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Melbourne by 24.

[layzie 33,805]

3 hours ago, DemonOX said:

Well for me personally today started horribly, my mum passed away. 
 

Let hope the Dees do the right that thing and win in her memory. 

Nice memory just Monday gone I told her that the Dees were on the top of the ladder and she said “what” the surprise on her face was priceless.  Even with her memory loss she still new who the Dees were.  Never mind she forgot who the hell I was  ha ha  

Go Dees. 

I'm so sorry mate, let's do it for her <3

[Jaded No More 68,915]

Started with the Gawn smashing behind the play. Nice. 

[BDA 22,755]

straight away with the behind the ball hit on Maxy. Hipwood you scumbag. hope you get yours

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Ah, Weid.

[layzie 33,805]

Come on Sam clunk the mark

[Kumamoto_Ken 1,531]

Did he say Stan Weideman? ?

[dees189227 12,394]

Weiderman another mark he should have taken

[McQueen 17,864]

Hipwood rough conduct charge. 

[DeeSince73 488]

OMG. Listen to these moron commentators crapping on already. Spare me. 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

I dont like Hopgood. He aint good.

[layzie 33,805]

Both teams cagey 

[Guest]

I hope BT doesn’t act like as big a brain moron as he did when he called our game last time.

[Gunna’s 2,104]

Certain goal. 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Brisbane going the knuckle, classy.

[dees189227 12,394]

If the lions want to play like this then that's fine. We are happy to take the frees

[leave it to deever 17,511]

Shut up Carey

[layzie 33,805]

Really got a night of B grade commentary ahead 

[Grr-owl 1,220]

We look tents in and slow and lacklustre.  Not good.