The CHF Debate

[CarnTheDees 52]

Although I have been heavily critical of ND and Co in the past, I think that they deserve some credit. Although we haven't seriously challenged for a flag since 2000 (and that was never a serious challenge), the re-building of the club over the past 4 years both on and off the field is an impressive achievement. The sum of this is that now we are getting into a position where we can really start to challenge, due to good recruitment and list management, and strong support at board level.

However, we are still at least 1 key ingredient away from the ultimate success: a good CHF. Someone who has a physical presence, and draws the football to them. Look back at past premiership sides, and most of them had one. The evolution of the game toward speed may decrease the value of the power CHF slightly, but they will still be relevant for the next few years.

So what do we do?

Is Miller the solution? NO. Has the physical presence, but not the footballer's brains or basic skills. I see his role as either to learn to become a decent defender (unlikely), or out the door. Unfortunately he's probably our best choice currently, so he'll stay for the time being.

Dunn? NO. The opposite to Miller. Smart and skilful, but lacks menace and power in the air. Could become a good 3rd tall (Robbo, O'Keefe type), but never a KPP.

Is there anyone else on our list who could fill this void in the next few years? Bate, Holland, PJ... NO. I can't comment on the new recruits but the feedback I've read here doesn't describe them as future CHFs.

What about Neita to CHF? I know it has been tried in the past with minimal success, but it was only really used as a stop-gap. Maybe he could play an old-fashioned CHF role (Carey-like), staying around the 50, as opposed to the Tredrea, Miller type which relies on hard running to present on the wing. The reason that I suggest this is that we do have cover for him at FF. Obviously not as effective as Neita, but we could fill his presence in the square with Jamar or even Miller (teach him to kick first), and play Robbo permanently deep as well to add to the aerial threat. Rotate Green and Bruce through the forward line to present on the lead, and ensure Davey stays inside 50 (and probably Yze as well because surely the motivation of a few goals could fire him up) and we'd have a relatively well balanced forward line, that is still fairly potent, whilst ensuring a presence at CHF to straighten us up.

Comments?

[CARN THE DEES! 14]

Carn the Dees u have hit the nail on the head my friend.

[Lord Travis 10,793]

Miller will be staying at CHF for the time being.

Neitz needs to play close to goals as our main target up forward, for both his sake and the teams. Dunn will take over from Miller at CHF, but for the time being Miller will stay there methinks.

I want to see our mids kicking heaps of goals, West Coast style. I want them to run hard, never stop running, and kick a stack of goals. I want to see Travis, Bruce, Green, Mclean, Jones, Moloney all amongst the goals when I read the match report in the paper.

[Jarka 767]

The fact that we don't have a standout CHF is a worry, it's compounded even more by the fact that we don't have a successor to Neitz when he retires. So that's CHF and FF that we have to deal with in the near future and if you look at our list it's a choice out of these players:

Miller

Dunn

P.Johnson

Newton

Garland

Frawley

Newton I think has the talent to become our FF, whether he can get himself right is another question.

At the moment Dunn plays more like a flanker, he'll need to get stronger to be a better target.

Miller and PJ are not up to it, Frawley looks more like a defender and I don't know enough about Garland to pass judgement.

Our spine is a worry.

[occo 2]

The fact that we don't have a standout CHF is a worry, it's compounded even more by the fact that we don't have a successor to Neitz when he retires. So that's CHF and FF that we have to deal with in the near future and if you look at our list it's a choice out of these players:

Miller

Dunn

P.Johnson

Newton

Garland

Frawley

Newton I think has the talent to become our FF, whether he can get himself right is another question.

At the moment Dunn plays more like a flanker, he'll need to get stronger to be a better target.

Miller and PJ are not up to it, Frawley looks more like a defender and I don't know enough about Garland to pass judgement.

Our spine is a worry.

I will disagree about our spine being the worry. From the full back we have: Carroll (who in my opinion will never be the best FB but is more than adiquate), Rivers (in my opinion could be better than Chad Cournes), McLean (a superstar), Dunn (is developing but will be a champion CHF) and Neitz (one of the best FF we have seen).

I agree there is a real issue with our CHF but i think Dunn will be a better play if we actually get him on the ground. Miller in my opinion is not worthwile. He promiced so much and has let us down and we cant keep giving chances for him ton show something. Have we thought about possibly playing Miller in the forward pockett (although his kicking would be an issue). If he could kick goals I think he could make our forward line dangerious

F: Davey Neitz Miller

HF: Robbo Dunn Pickett

Thats my thoughts anyway. Im not concirned with our spine...i am about our depth however. Reassess at the end of the year but i would get Miller to play pocket a few times. Last chace. If no difference hes off for a round pick or a midfielder (where our depth is weak)

[Gouga 570]

I used to think Neitz to CHF would be the solution. It is probably a few years too late but. He won't be able to provide that contest we need for the whole game. We might get an extra year out of him if he continues to play close as well.

I agree that Dunn and Miller are both not up to the task.

My solution would be to play two mobile CHF at all times. The candidates are Bate, Dunn, Miller and Robbo. Bate and Miller could be the lead up CHF's and Dunn and Robbo would be the stay at home 40m out type CHF. As long as their are two blokes at all times whose job it is to make that contest and provide that link we are better off than relying on just Dunn or Miller.

50% of the time we need a mark, the other 50% of the time we just need a contest to give our small forwards a chance!

[old55 23,833]

Teams only need one power forward. Neitz can play CHF-FF like Hall does, they're fairly similar players.

Succession plan is a problem but it's not for want of trying. I was keen that we went for KPPs in this year's draft for that reason and we went for them with 1st and 3rd pick. Nick Smith, Luke Molan, Brent Grgic ... Power forwards are hard to come by. Got any trade ideas? Don't think J.Brown, Pavlich or N.Riewoldt will be available.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Teams only need one power forward. Neitz can play CHF-FF like Hall does, they're fairly similar players.

Succession plan is a problem but it's not for want of trying. I was keen that we went for KPPs in this year's draft for that reason and we went for them with 1st and 3rd pick. Nick Smith, Luke Molan, Brent Grgic ... Power forwards are hard to come by. Got any trade ideas? Don't think J.Brown, Pavlich or N.Riewoldt will be available.

Agree. I think the modern game is moving away from the standard FF/CHF model. I think Tredrea, Brown, Hall all float in that role. Toss in Pavlich ( On song he can play anywhere).

Power forwars are hard to come by and we probably wont appreciate the importance of Neitz until he is gone.

[Jarka 767]

I'm not convinced that the modern game is moving away from the need for power forwards. Out of the last five premiership teams only the Eagles lacked a serious heavyweight forward but they got away with it because of their awesome midfield which is full of talent and depth. Judd, Cousins, Kerr, Fletcher, Stenglein, Embley etc. We simply cannot match them in that department so our success must come from a different route.

Let's look at the recent winners and their forwards:

Eagles - No standout forward but have an awesome midfield. Lynch their best with 65 goals

Swans - B.Hall 80 goals 15 touches 7.9 marks

Port - Tredrea 81, 15.6, 7.7

Brisbane 3 - Lynch 78, 9.3, 4.6

Brisbane 2 - 74, 9.2, 4.6

Brisbane 1 - 53, 9.3, 4

Brisbane also had a couple of handy blokes roaming around the forward line in Bradshaw and J.Brown.

Essendon - Lloyd 105, 14, 7.5

Now I love our captain, he's a club champion, but he turned 32 this year and there is no way that he is going to be able to provide us with those types of output this year, and who will fill his shoes when he retires?

Our spine is still a worry, Carroll is as honest as they come but he struggles against the better forwards, and in the finals that's where he'll get tested the most. Rivers (and McLean) is the only top class long term prospect but most of the time he doesn't even play CHB, normally as a loose third tall.

[loges 6,767]

Comments?

good post miller likes to lead and neitz could play the bang and crash style needed for chf, however i feel they have left this move too late

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

I dont think its a move away from power forwards. I think it is a matter that you need one rather than two.

I also think that the changes that have occurred in the game have happened within the last 3 to 5 years. So I think the Lions hat trick may be the somewhat during the start of the changes. I note that the Lions will be having J Brown up forward but not sure they will play another power forward.

I am not sure that the Saints with Gehrig and Riewoldt work smoothly last year and they became somewhat predictable for oppositions to counter.

I disagree that the Eagles dont have a power forward. They have Quinten Lynch (194cm/103kgs) who in last years GF displayed some of the awesome marking potential he has and kicked 3 crucial goals. If he blossoms then WCE will be even more potent.

[Whispering_Jack 31,129]

The power forward in many teams is now playing a mixed CHF-FF role, getting out of the goalsqaure and moving his defender around. Barry Hall does it brilliantly.

I'm told that Matthew Bate went to CHF in the last quarter last week and I'm wondering if he might end up there as a run and carry type CHF who can bob up and kick a goal and roam down to the wings to create space for the other forwards when required.

Bate is about the same height as Matthew Pavlich in some footy guides (although not yet as heavy).

[demonfanjezza 1]

we probably wont appreciate the importance of Neitz until he is gone.

How very true, Rhino

this is neitz's 14th season in the AFL (93-07)

Lets us appreciate the importance he gives to the team now while he is still playing

in regards to a CHF

For the time being, i think Miller will stay there

[Gouga 570]

Agree. I think the modern game is moving away from the standard FF/CHF model. I think Tredrea, Brown, Hall all float in that role. Toss in Pavlich ( On song he can play anywhere).

Only one problm Rhino. At 32 Neitz is not nearly as athletic and agile as those players listed above. He needs to stay close to goal. This means we need another player to step up and play that role.

Last year we fell over at half forward most games. Relying on our 32 year old captain to fix this problem by pushing up the ground is too much. Especially when you consider we are also relying on him to kick the majority of our goals.

I still favour the two mobile CHFs like I suggsted above.

If only Robbo was 10cm taller, our problem would be solved!

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Only one problm Rhino. At 32 Neitz is not nearly as athletic and agile as those players listed above. He needs to stay close to goal. This means we need another player to step up and play that role.

Last year we fell over at half forward most games. Relying on our 32 year old captain to fix this problem by pushing up the ground is too much. Especially when you consider we are also relying on him to kick the majority of our goals.

I still favour the two mobile CHFs like I suggsted above.

If only Robbo was 10cm taller, our problem would be solved!

I dont propose Neitz play a CHF role. But the changing demands of football suggest to me that you need only one gorilla most of the time up forward. At 32, Melb does have an issue as to what to do for succession. As Old 55 pointed out it is not that the Club has not tried. And good gorilla forwards are so hard to find.

We fell over more often in the midfield more than CHF and much of the weakness resulted from the way we moved the ball.

But you are right about the issue of mobility but I dont know if they are CHFs. I would suggest there more roaming HFs. I guess you might have been referring to Dunn and Miller. i think Dunn has to the ability and will rise to the occassion over time. I dont see Miller cutting it no matter how much posters are willing him to be what he ihas shown that is not.

I think Robbo is a dilemna. His best work is done in the FF line where he is hard to mark up as plays "tall". However he is not mobile enough for HFF. My concern this year is that he carries the knee injury from last year and if his mobility is reduced he will close to useless and end up at Sandy.

[Gouga 570]

My concern this year is that he carries the knee injury from last year and if his mobility is reduced he will close to useless and end up at Sandy.

He was close to useless last year and didn't end up at Sandy. Lets hope 2007 ain't a repeat.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

I'm with you Gouga on this one. I share your hopes.

[drdrake 3,203]

Dunn has always looked more comfortable closer to goal, were Miller looks his best on the lead around midfield. Both aren't that good in a contested Mark, as stated Miller wins as a Lead up CHF but Dunn is better at ground level and has goal sense. I post in my starting 22 for ST kilda that we play 2-3 HHF and for fo the traditional CHF because we don't have one.

Robbo, Bate, Bruce accross HFF with the late Bruce and Bate playing more a a midfielder role that works to become the link between coming out of defense and setting up attack. If we need a strong presents upfield let Neitz gat out to CHF5-10min per quater and send Robbo to the leading FF role. I suggest that we play Bate like O'Keefe from Sydney, someone suggest that it works for Sydney because thay play on the small SCG, IMO it will work on the larger grounds because you have super fit tall midfielders playing this role not many tall defenders will be able to run with Bate/Bruce.

The defenders may not run with them and zone off, bad move Bate can kick 55-60m and if you leave him loose he will carve them up and Bruce has the footy brain to do the same, no AFL coach will leave Bruce by himself he can all so kick bags of goals on his day.

I think we are all looking for the J Brown, Carey type we don't have one so we need to find what suites th MFC.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

I'm with you Gouga on this one. I share your hopes.

During the Hawk's game, as with Neitz I thought Robbo had much more of a spring in his step compared to last year. Hopefully it can last the full season, because when he's on fire he's really difficult to match-up on.

[Old Man Rivers 326]

What about Neita to CHF? I know it has been tried in the past with minimal success, but it was only really used as a stop-gap. Maybe he could play an old-fashioned CHF role (Carey-like), staying around the 50, as opposed to the Tredrea, Miller type which relies on hard running to present on the wing. The reason that I suggest this is that we do have cover for him at FF. Obviously not as effective as Neita, but we could fill his presence in the square with Jamar or even Miller (teach him to kick first), and play Robbo permanently deep as well to add to the aerial threat. Rotate Green and Bruce through the forward line to present on the lead, and ensure Davey stays inside 50 (and probably Yze as well because surely the motivation of a few goals could fire him up) and we'd have a relatively well balanced forward line, that is still fairly potent, whilst ensuring a presence at CHF to straighten us up.

Comments?