Elite Talent at Melbourne FC

[Tough Kent 2,138]

Elite players win clubs premierships. Here is my list of players on our list who have the potential to become/are already elite AFL players:

May - Elite. One of the top 5 full backs in the league. Beautiful kick, great one on one, moves so well for a big fella.

Petracca - Potential Elite. His best is elite in the competition. Can he bring it consistently this year?

Jackson - Potential Elite. Has all the attributes to become an elite big man. You don't use pick three on a bloke unless you're confident he'll become A grade.

Viney - Heading towards Elite. When fit, this guy has major influences on matches. His best is outstanding. Now that he is over his injuries let's hope we see it consistently.

Gawn - Elite. One of the best and most influential big men in the game. Period.

Oliver - Potential Elite. I don't think he's quite in the top bracket of mids yet, but at 22 I have little doubt he'll get there. He's a star, but he has room for improvement.

Fritsch - Potential Elite. His 19 goals from 7 games in a struggling side to end last year showed what he is capable of. He has the potential to kick 40 - 50 goals as a mid sized forward. That would make him elite.

Kysaiah Pickett - Potential Elite. I think he could develop into one of the best small forwards in the game. For him to be showing the signs he has at senior level already is hugely promising.

Have I missed anyone?

Have I added anyone that shouldn't be there?

Is there enough elite talent on our list to compete at the pointy end of the season?

Edited April 18, 2020 by Tough Kent
Grammar

[Diamond_Jim 12,693]

Gawn....very good but not elite

He excels in a dying position.

Our inability to leverage his ruck dominance is a great disappointment but it reflects the modern game.

The others are mere potential with Oliver the closest to elite followed a fair way behind by Petracca.

Perhaps our definitions of elite differ... To me there are probably around 40 elite players at present across all teams.

[Tough Kent 2,138]

5 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Gawn....very good but not elite

He excels in a dying position.

Our inability to leverage his ruck dominance is a great disappointment but it reflects the modern game.

The others are mere potential with Oliver the closest to elite followed a fair way behind by Petracca.

Perhaps our definitions of elite differ... To me there are probably around 40 elite players at present across all teams.

True. Elite is a subjective term. I think of an elite player as anyone who can consistently have an influence on the outcome of the game. I think one of main problems is that we don't have enough players who can consistently stand up when needed.

[Diamond_Jim 12,693]

10 minutes ago, Tough Kent said:

True. Elite is a subjective term. I think of an elite player as anyone who can consistently have an influence on the outcome of the game. I think one of main problems is that we don't have enough players who can consistently stand up when needed.

Agree or putting it another way is consistently in the teams best 5 and is the top 5 on ground every second or third week with a BOG performance once every five.

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,084]

26 minutes ago, Tough Kent said:

Gawn....very good but not elite

Gawn is the only elite on our list.

Gawn easily can and does turn the tide in games.

Its blokes like Oliver and Viney who are borderline as their impact is dependent on their disposal. Oliver always gets plenty but doesnt use it well.

Round 1 2020 Jack Viney was an elite performance.

Petracca isnt elite at this point in time.

[Accepting Mediocrity 1,418]

My 2 cents:

Elite players don't win flags on their own - but history suggests it's almost impossible to win a flag without at least a couple.   

The term 'elite' is subjective and gets thrown around a lot. For mine, an elite player is genuinely in the discussion (among neutral supporters) as the best in the league for their position. By that measure, we have one - Gawn. We all love him - but the value of having a dominant ruckman in modern footy is debatable.

Viney, Oliver and Trac are more than handy, but no neutral supporter would mention their names in the same breath as Fyfe, Dusty, Bontempelli, Cripps, etc (at this stage). 

May is very good, but I'd doubt many would list him in the best 5 defenders in the AFL - he's far too inconsistent. He's also 28, so unlikely to suddenly develop into the best fullback in the comp (even allowing for the Gold Coast factor).

Jackson and Pickett are 2 of perhaps 50 highly promising, but ultimately unproven young players in the AFL. Statistically, it's highly unlikely that either of them become elite players (although early signs are promising).

59 minutes ago, Tough Kent said:

Fritsch - Potential Elite. His 19 goals from 7 games in a struggling side to end last year showed what he is capable of. He has the potential to kick 40 - 50 goals as a mid sized forward. That would make him elite.

I love Fritsch, but Tim Membrey kicked 44 goals last year. He ain't elite. 

In order of most likely to become elite, I think:

Petracca > Oliver > Lever > Jackson > Pickett

 

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,281]

I note Brayshaw’s not there and absolutely agree. A bit of a fall from grace from a player that came third in the Brownlow.

Viney’s round 1 performance was elite, and not for the first time when playing WC over there. During the Foxtel telecast of that game, Gerard Healy thought Viney was a genuine chance of an All Australian gig this year.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,281]

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Gawn....very good but not elite

Tough but fair call and analysis of Gawn.

However I would’ve thought 3 All Australian awards in the last 4 years is purely elite.

I think we’ve seen the best of Gawn and he won’t be getting any better. I also concede that Grundy will take over Gawn as the number 1 ruck this year, if he didn’t already last year.

[Diamond_Jim 12,693]

2 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

However I would’ve thought 3 All Australian awards in the last 4 years is purely elite.

One of the best if not the best in his position but he does not dominate the game as you would expect an elite player to do.

This is not his fault ...it is the declining role of the ruckman. I think Jeff White for some years had more influence on the team than Gawn has had.

Jamar was probably as dominant as Gawn in the ruck but it did little good.

TBH I have always been surprised and disappointed that our coaching staff have not come up with a few set plays to leverage Gawn's dominance. Hitting to space is an obvious one but I suppose that tactic goes against the possession and control mantra prevalent in today's game.

[Tough Kent 2,138]

I suppose we need to forget semantics. How does our top end talent stack up?

[Accepting Mediocrity 1,418]

45 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

One of the best if not the best in his position but he does not dominate the game as you would expect an elite player to do.

Funnily enough, I think a lot of Dees fans take Gawn for granted a bit. Some matches last year would have been heading towards 186 territory if it weren't for his efforts.

It's true that a dominant ruckman winning hitouts doesn't automatically equal success, but neither does having one dominant midfielder. 

Grundy has won Collingwood's last 2 B&Fs. He's extremely influential for Collingwood. Gawn is every bit as influential for us.

Mobile big blokes that take contested marks and control the air are worth their considerable weight in gold. 

 

[John Demonic 5,908]

58 minutes ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

Funnily enough, I think a lot of Dees fans take Gawn for granted a bit. Some matches last year would have been heading towards 186 territory if it weren't for his efforts.

It's true that a dominant ruckman winning hitouts doesn't automatically equal success, but neither does having one dominant midfielder. 

Grundy has won Collingwood's last 2 B&Fs. He's extremely influential for Collingwood. Gawn is every bit as influential for us.

Mobile big blokes that take contested marks and control the air are worth their considerable weight in gold. 

 

And ironically, to counterpoint those downplaying the big men, it took a prelim masterclass from a giant controlling the air with contested grabs to topple Richmond for the only time in 3 seasons.

Mason Cox exposing Rance was the key difference. He's not there, and the Toiges climb their way back from a 4 or 5 goal smaller margin. He absolutely dominated him.

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by John Demonic

[faultydet 7,623]

15 hours ago, Tough Kent said:

Elite players win clubs premierships. Here is my list of players on our list who have the potential to become/are already elite AFL players:

May - Elite. One of the top 5 full backs in the league. Beautiful kick, great one on one, moves so well for a big fella.

Petracca - Potential Elite. His best is elite in the competition. Can he bring it consistently this year?

Jackson - Potential Elite. Has all the attributes to become an elite big man. You don't use pick three on a bloke unless you're confident he'll become A grade.

Viney - Heading towards Elite. When fit, this guy has major influences on matches. His best is outstanding. Now that he is over his injuries let's hope we see it consistently.

Gawn - Elite. One of the best and most influential big men in the game. Period.

Oliver - Potential Elite. I don't think he's quite in the top bracket of mids yet, but at 22 I have little doubt he'll get there. He's a star, but he has room for improvement.

Fritsch - Potential Elite. His 19 goals from 7 games in a struggling side to end last year showed what he is capable of. He has the potential to kick 40 - 50 goals as a mid sized forward. That would make him elite.

Kysaiah Pickett - Potential Elite. I think he could develop into one of the best small forwards in the game. For him to be showing the signs he has at senior level already is hugely promising.

Have I missed anyone?

Have I added anyone that shouldn't be there?

Is there enough elite talent on our list to compete at the pointy end of the season?

I think we desperately overrate our players and always have.

We don't have a single "elite" player on the list, and to even mention Pickett Fritsch and Petracca or even Jackson would make every AFL pundit laugh in embarrassment for us.

When you have seen as many people touted as potential elites as we have only to see them fall short time after time, we really should avoid these type of conversations.

[spalding 1,128]

Agreed - I would say a handful of all Australians are elite (dusty, Dangerfield are a couple) after being selected year after year. None of our players are anywhere near this level.

id argue Robbie Flower was perhaps the only elite MFC player I’ve seen in my 50 years. Even then he wasn’t a Matthews or Carey, but he really showed how good he was when he had some decent players around him in state games.

lyon and Stynes were probably just below this level, whilst I think Schwarz had the potential to be elite (and perhaps the equal of Carey) if he didn’t get injured at the start of 1995. Farmer too if he was able to maintain his 2000 form for the rest of his career 

[Tough Kent 2,138]

I have rated two of players elite. Debatable? Yes. I have also listed six players that show capabilities that they could become elite. I'm not suggesting they will, but with the right development they could be. 

The gist of the thread? How few players we have on our list that are actually in the elite category. I'm not sure how I've overrated the list.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,307]

It is difficult to do this without clear definition of elite you are working to. Champion data do it on statistical impact against players of similar position, elite puts you in the top 10%. In this, Gawn is the only one based on 2019. End of 2018 they had Gawn, Oliver, TMac and Lever based on carry over impact from Crows. In my opinion, elite is a point in time thing and I would not argue any of those based on those seasons output or Lever pre trade. Longevity to me is where the difference shows between the good and great players (a separate argument). 

As far as elite, The most likely for me therefore are those who have shown they can reach that level consistently Week to week (Gawn, Oliver, Lever, T-Mac) and then the potentials are those that have shown the capability to play games at that level who may get greater consistency. In my view this shows as in order of likelihood Viney, May, Petracca, Langdon and possibly Fritsch. You could argue Brayshaw based on 2018 but I am not convinced on his potential for consistency or impact (worth noting Champion data did include him in theirs that year either). 

 

 

 

[Accepting Mediocrity 1,418]

2 hours ago, faultydet said:

I think we desperately overrate our players and always have.

We don't have a single "elite" player on the list, and to even mention Pickett Fritsch and Petracca or even Jackson would make every AFL pundit laugh in embarrassment for us.

To be fair, all footy fans desperately overrate their own players. I actually think MFC fans are generally more realistic than most. Ask the average tigers fan how many elite players they have and they'll peel off about a dozen names. 

No one has suggested Pickett, Fritsch et al are elite - they have the potential, sure, but so do about 300 other players in the AFL.

IMO most neutral supporters would have Gawn as borderline elite, then daylight, with Petracca as being the best equipped to become elite in the next few years.  

 

 

[Swooper1987 3,322]

Gawn is an absolute elite ruck. That's all he can be judged on.  He's only ever played ruck and since 2016 he's been the best or equal best in that position ( remembering that he missed half a season in 2017 which certainly cost us a spot in the 8).  By any measure Gawn is an elite player.  Three AA's, 2 Club B&F's and the AFLCA Player of the Year in that time.  He seems to get judged very harshly at times.  I'd love to see him spend a few minute forward each quarter like he did against North in the last game last season.  

As for the rest of the side - some potential elites - Oliver, May, Lever, Petracca but nobody has been ranked among the absolute top end of their position like Gawn has for an extended period of time.

[Mental Demons 136]

Gawn is the only one who one could argue was elite. We have a couple who are potential elite, Oliver and Petracca. We mostly have solid above average players who often will be consistent with contribution to the team. (Brayshaw,Viney, Melksham, Fritch,T Mac, Harmes), We have many that have shown glimpses but need to show more consistency. (Lever, Picket, Langdon, Tomlinson, Salem). Our biggest problem is defence with a large group of players who need to prove their potential. (May, Jetta, Petty, Smith, Hore, Lockhart, OMac) It is not the elite players who win finals. Every team has some and they can cancel each other out. It is the depth of players 18-28. This group we have been improving. We have many with too much to prove. (AVB, ANB, Hannan, Brown, Wiedeman, OMac, May, Bennell, Jackson, Brown, Spargo) and anybody else who has had little chance to have an impact. Some will make the team others should not. We have too much dead wood with no future of being best 22.  I do not see much success under Goodwin's coaching. If we have success it will be despite the coaching and drafting.   

[Its Time for Another 4,303]

Enjoying this OP. 

 

2014 Draft. Petracca Brayshaw Lever O Mac Langdon ANB Stretch

This is these players 6th season in the system. More than half way through what would be regarded on the law of averages an outstanding career of 10 or more years. You'd have to think this year is the one they either reach their potential or won't. 

[MyFavouriteMartian 572]

5 minutes ago, It's Time said:

Enjoying this OP. 

 

2014 Draft. Petracca Brayshaw Lever O Mac Langdon ANB Stretch

This is these players 6th season in the system. More than half way through what would be regarded on the law of averages an outstanding career of 10 or more years. You'd have to think this year is the one they either reach their potential or won't. 

I'd like to see that.?

[Its Time for Another 4,303]

12 minutes ago, MyFavouriteMartian said:

I'd like to see that.?

It's looking pretty likely there will be games by I'd say second half of June. Personally I think they should have controlled crowds too but it won't happen. At the rate we are going there will be almost no live cases by then. As recoveries increase live cases are decreasing by the day even with new daily cases. It's something like 4300 recoveries versus 2300 live cases.  In my opinion it should be possible to say we'll allow 5000 or 10000 spectators into the MCG suitably socially distanced. No food or beverage outlets. Have a lottery for members of teams up to that amount. Would be great for members and players and coverage. Surely that wouldn't be that hard to police at a large venue like that and some of the other large venues. Members get some value for their memberships this year. 

 

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,693]

1 hour ago, It's Time said:

In my opinion it should be possible to say we'll allow 5000 or 10000 spectators into the MCG suitably socially distanced. No food or beverage outlets. Have a lottery for members of teams up to that amount. Would be great for members and players and coverage. Surely that wouldn't be that hard to police at a large venue like that and some of the other large venues. Members get some value for their memberships this year. 

just posted much the same in another thread although my suggestion was one thousand attendees.

Very important that they involve fans in some way. Strangely enough I think the canned crowd noise is almost disrespectful to the fans.

[drdrake 3,203]

Elite players need to be able to execute all the skills of the game at an extremely high level.  We don't have to many players that we have confidence that they can hit a target by foot.

If you can't execute the fundamental skill of the game at an elite level your not elite. 

[MyFavouriteMartian 572]

2 hours ago, It's Time said:

It's looking pretty likely there will be games by I'd say second half of June. Personally I think they should have controlled crowds too but it won't happen. At the rate we are going there will be almost no live cases by then. As recoveries increase live cases are decreasing by the day even with new daily cases. It's something like 4300 recoveries versus 2300 live cases.  In my opinion it should be possible to say we'll allow 5000 or 10000 spectators into the MCG suitably socially distanced. No food or beverage outlets. Have a lottery for members of teams up to that amount. Would be great for members and players and coverage. Surely that wouldn't be that hard to police at a large venue like that and some of the other large venues. Members get some value for their memberships this year. 

 

 

... or,  the Melbourne footy club could hire out the lunar drive-in theatre, to how some of our games from the comfort of the car.?  windows down a little to here one anothers cheers, &/or groans,  or even moans.?   ☺️