Splitting Draft Pick 3

[old55 23,023]

13 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Dosen't seem like much but points wise 38 & 56 equal 659 so they'd need to find closer to pick 18 than 22. But remember they'll get picks for Patton and whoever else leaves as well.

Good post, but Patton doesn't get them pick 18. GWS need to find picks/points for Green to capitilise on the split, which will cost them more. So Caldwell, Patton pick, Tomlinson pick and probably someone else all get swallowed up so they can get pick 3. They'd have to want it badly. I don't think I'd do it.

[buck_nekkid 5,831]

What is true is that we will have the power to decide.  If they want it, it needs to be a juicy offer.  If they expect Green to be bid on at 4, then they either need 3 or 4.  So our strategy without pick split should see us with Anderson (2) or maybe Young (3).  This is definitely to our benefit, particularly if we have Langdon, Tomlinson and Elliot all inbound all for the cost of one second rounder.  We get to decide how this plays out, and if we are not getting ‘overs’ we can say “no thanks”.  We also have the option of future round picks, although from GWS you would expect them all to be late in each round, and this could also be an interesting strategy to consider into the mix.

[Red and Blue realist 2,040]

31 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

Good post, but Patton doesn't get them pick 18. GWS need to find picks/points for Green to capitilise on the split, which will cost them more. So Caldwell, Patton pick, Tomlinson pick and probably someone else all get swallowed up so they can get pick 3. They'd have to want it badly. I don't think I'd do it.

Never thought Patton will get them anywhere near 18, but it should get them some extra points so they might only need to top up with their later picks or go slightly into deficit for next year (not sure what academy kids they've got coming through for 2020).

If you had the choice would you want Green and pick 36ish (maybe higher) or Green and pick 3 if it also cost one of those players mentioned? Surely they'll be assessing who might get squeezed out anyway and hanging them out there so we do a deal?? 

[old55 23,023]

41 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Never thought Patton will get them anywhere near 18, but it should get them some extra points so they might only need to top up with their later picks or go slightly into deficit for next year (not sure what academy kids they've got coming through for 2020).

If you had the choice would you want Green and pick 36ish (maybe higher) or Green and pick 3 if it also cost one of those players mentioned? Surely they'll be assessing who might get squeezed out anyway and hanging them out there so we do a deal?? 

I think it's more like:

• Green, one of those players and 3 x 36ish picks (Green bid change plus Tomlinson pick and Patton pick assuming they're 2nd both rounders)
• vs Green and pick 3. 

If it's really Rowell, Anderson, Green then daylight - it would be line ball IMO.  If I was GWS it would depend which player - e.g. Caldwell no, Cumming yes.

Edited September 16, 2019 by Fifty-5

[DubDee 24,724]

Great to see a Sydney team get gifted another top 3 draft pick while finishing in the top 4. 

Joke

[Red and Blue realist 2,040]

34 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

I think it's more like:

• Green, one of those players and 3 x 36ish picks (Green bid change plus Tomlinson pick and Patton pick assuming they're 2nd both rounders)
• vs Green and pick 3. 

If it's really Rowell, Anderson, Green then daylight - it would be line ball IMO.  If I was GWS it would depend which player - e.g. Caldwell no, Cumming yes.

I think most of the talk is it's, Rowell, Anderson and Green, then throw a blanket over the next 15 - 20 or so picks, then it drops dramatically from there.

GWS might be happier to move on one of Caldwell or Hately before they ask for a contract extension and pay rise, it'll potentially easier to keep the other and not be using money they need for Cameron/Whitfield next year. No surprise they seem to take most of their top end picks from Vic so then they have the most ability to extract value for those who they do move on.

[buck_nekkid 5,831]

35 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Great to see a Sydney team get gifted another top 3 draft pick while finishing in the top 4. 

Joke

Not sure that is correct.  Where is the ‘gift’?  They have to trade what they have to get it, and it comes from this years first rounder and a first rounder traded in last year.  So they dont have any special gifts in terms of the trade scenario.  The fact that they got gifted so many top picks in their early days that puts them in this position now (and with salary cap pressure) is a different story.....

[Red and Blue realist 2,040]

8 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Not sure that is correct.  Where is the ‘gift’?  They have to trade what they have to get it, and it comes from this years first rounder and a first rounder traded in last year.  So they dont have any special gifts in terms of the trade scenario.  The fact that they got gifted so many top picks in their early days that puts them in this position now (and with salary cap pressure) is a different story.....

They had a massive leg up to start with and have played it very smart since then, and will/should continue to reap those rewards for years to come. Shiel, Lobb, Smith, Treloar, WHE, McCarthy plus guys like Wilson, Kennedy, Phillips & Plowman, Marchbank, Steele, O'Rourke, Frost have all been moved on for either first round picks or to move up the order over the last few years.

Losing a star or 2 a year is much easier to take when there's always a turn over of good young talent coming through, plus it's much easier to manage the salary cap. They simply got given too many concessions, and should have been forced to try and be competitive early like the Suns, as compared to just banking talent. 

[Slartibartfast 16,949]

I'd be keen on Daniel or Hill in the deal, both suit our needs better than Caldwell and perhaps aren't as highly rated.

[DubDee 24,724]

41 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Not sure that is correct.  Where is the ‘gift’?  They have to trade what they have to get it, and it comes from this years first rounder and a first rounder traded in last year.  So they dont have any special gifts in terms of the trade scenario.  The fact that they got gifted so many top picks in their early days that puts them in this position now (and with salary cap pressure) is a different story.....

wasn't talking about any particular trade. maybe the rules have changed but previously they could use points and late draft picks to get the best players in the draft. eg Heeney with a late first rounder.  are they going to use pick 3 on Green if they get it?

[buck_nekkid 5,831]

9 minutes ago, DubDee said:

wasn't talking about any particular trade. maybe the rules have changed but previously they could use points and late draft picks to get the best players in the draft. eg Heeney with a late first rounder.  are they going to use pick 3 on Green if they get it?

That comes down to academy discount (20%) and father son.  Interstate clubs have a better go at it through their acadamies, but from memory we got Viney cheap this way too.

They want three so they can take a top liner and then scrounge for points with lower picks to get Green.  ie, 2 top 5 picks.

[Red and Blue realist 2,040]

10 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

I'd be keen on Daniel or Hill in the deal, both suit our needs better than Caldwell and perhaps aren't as highly rated.

Hill just signed an extension and Daniels has played every game, I think we're more likely to be able to get at one of the younger kids who hasn't been given much of a go and might see themselves stuck behind a lot of others.

[markc 975]

5 hours ago, Red and Blue realist said:

. But remember they'll get picks for Patton and whoever else leaves as well.

This shouldn't weaken our hand - pick 3 for 13, 17/18 and a player, but actually strengthen it -

my question why wouldnt we take pick 13, 17/18 and Patton ?

 

[Red and Blue realist 2,040]

1 hour ago, markc said:

my question why wouldnt we take pick 13, 17/18 and Patton ?

 

Don't think we've been linked with Patton at all, it's been known that's he's going to the Hawks since before the season. 

[old55 23,023]

Setting aside Kelly, Whitfield and Cameron, Zach Williams is probably the player I think best suits our needs. He's RFA in 2020 when the Giants have all sorts of other list issues.

I'd do 3 for 12 and Williams.

[Kent 2,879]

On 9/4/2019 at 5:03 PM, Demon Disciple said:

If that is the case, and i don't have any reason to doubt it, the board should nut up and give him the flick now. I'm all for short-term gain, but not at the expense of medium-longterm success.

Yes that is what some on here have been saying.

 

[Superunknown 4,160]

can someone confirm, has the AFL decided if the GCS get a PP at 2 yet?

[Lucifers Hero 39,049]

18 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

I think it's more like:

• Green, one of those players and 3 x 36ish picks (Green bid change plus Tomlinson pick and Patton pick assuming they're 2nd both rounders)
• vs Green and pick 3. 

If it's really Rowell, Anderson, Green then daylight - it would be line ball IMO.  If I was GWS it would depend which player - e.g. Caldwell no, Cumming yes.

GWS are looking for a mid 1st round pick for Patton jonathan-patton-set-to-join-hawthorn apparently on about $360K.

 

As an aside, Patton is reported to have been fit to play since July but chose not to, to avoid injury and derail the trade.  patton-places-career-on-hold-amid-near-certain-hawks-move  It reports he has a lucrative back-ended deal so it will be a lot of money off GWS's books. 

If Patton goes for a big paycut to around $360 (AFL average) it makes me think fans greatly overestimate what some players will play for and that not all trades involve big $$.

[old55 23,023]

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

GWS are looking for a mid 1st round pick for Patton jonathan-patton-set-to-join-hawthorn apparently on about $360K.

 

As an aside, Patton is reported to have been fit to play since July but chose not to, to avoid injury and derail the trade.  patton-places-career-on-hold-amid-near-certain-hawks-move  It reports he has a lucrative back-ended deal so it will be a lot of money off GWS's books. 

If Patton goes for a big paycut to around $360 (AFL average) it makes me think fans greatly overestimate what some players will play for and that not all trades involve big $$.

Luke Dahlhaus went to Geelong on a reported 4 year x $500k contract and the Dogs received 2nd round compensation for him.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/exclusive-premiership-bulldog-luke-dahlhaus-set-to-join-geelong-on-a-longterm-deal/news-story/5228f9820e74213fb9206fd4073f2fa8

https://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/news/2018-10-05/bulldogs-received-second-round-compensation

In your quoted article it does say:

"According to a Herald Sun report, the 26-year-old [Patton] is likely to sign a cut-price two-year deal in the ballpark of $360,000 per season if he is acquired by the Hawks during the AFL Trade Period."

https://wwos.nine.com.au/afl/gws-giants-star-jonathan-patton-set-to-join-hawthorn/e7669d45-75c2-424c-a903-d873683467b1

There's no way that will net a 2nd round compo pick, might net a 3rd round, maybe even nothing.

[Lucifers Hero 39,049]

2 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

Luke Dahlhaus went to Geelong on a reported 4 year x $500k contract and the Dogs received 2nd round compensation for him.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/exclusive-premiership-bulldog-luke-dahlhaus-set-to-join-geelong-on-a-longterm-deal/news-story/5228f9820e74213fb9206fd4073f2fa8

https://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/news/2018-10-05/bulldogs-received-second-round-compensation

In your quoted article it does say:

"According to a Herald Sun report, the 26-year-old [Patton] is likely to sign a cut-price two-year deal in the ballpark of $360,000 per season if he is acquired by the Hawks during the AFL Trade Period."

https://wwos.nine.com.au/afl/gws-giants-star-jonathan-patton-set-to-join-hawthorn/e7669d45-75c2-424c-a903-d873683467b1

There's no way that will net a 2nd round compo pick, might net a 3rd round, maybe even nothing.

Patton is contracted so comp picks don't come into play.  Hawks need to trade for him.

[Moonshadow 17,577]

3 hours ago, Superunknown said:

can someone confirm, has the AFL decided if the GCS get a PP at 2 yet?

At a AFL board meeting during GF week, apparently 

[spirit of norm smith 15,502]

Toby Greene not getting 4 weeks for eye gouging shows AFL bias towards their “children” clubs. 

Suns are almost definitely going to get a priority pick.  It’s where that is up for debate.  Either before any other pick (the new pick 1) or after pick 10 (new pick 11) or end of 1st round (new pick 19).  They probably need to somehow retain their existing kids and not just a draft handout. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,390]

3 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

GWS are looking for a mid 1st round pick for Patton jonathan-patton-set-to-join-hawthorn apparently on about $360K.

 

As an aside, Patton is reported to have been fit to play since July but chose not to, to avoid injury and derail the trade.  patton-places-career-on-hold-amid-near-certain-hawks-move  It reports he has a lucrative back-ended deal so it will be a lot of money off GWS's books. 

If Patton goes for a big paycut to around $360 (AFL average) it makes me think fans greatly overestimate what some players will play for and that not all trades involve big $$.

If you are right that GWS will get a first round pick from the Hawks as well, this from a GWS perspective is in the deal of the decade if not century realm.

Something just doesn't ring true but it could be as simple as you say and that Patton just wants to play good football irrespective of the dollar figure.

 

[Lucifers Hero 39,049]

26 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

If you are right that GWS will get a first round pick from the Hawks as well, this from a GWS perspective is in the deal of the decade if not century realm.

Something just doesn't ring true but it could be as simple as you say and that Patton just wants to play good football irrespective of the dollar figure.

Maybe the media pundits are wrong. 

But, looking at it logically:

• GWS can't afford to keep Patton with his big 2020 salary from a back-ended contract. 
• Patton has already earnt millions.  At the Hawks he knows he will get great medical treatment (ala Burgoyne, O'Meara, Scully). 
• I'm guessing those factors and the best chance to rebuild his career mean a lot more than $$ right now. 
• if he proves he can play 20-24 games a year the $$ will come back.
• A healthy Patton is worth more than a first round pick.  But like Scully, if they can offload Patton's salary they will discount the trade value

Hawks have pick 10 -  will that be part of the deal?

The significance for this thread is that GWS may have a lot more to play with (ie 3 mid first round picks) and many more options in negotiating a pick 2 split. 

Edited September 17, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[Red and Blue realist 2,040]

6 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Maybe the media pundits are wrong. 

But, looking at it logically:

• GWS can't afford to keep Patton with his big 2020 salary from a back-ended contract. 
• Patton has already earnt millions.  At the Hawks he knows he will get great medical treatment (ala Burgoyne, O'Meara, Scully). 
• I'm guessing those factors and the best chance to rebuild his career mean a lot more than $$ right now. 
• if he proves he can play 20-24 games a year the $$ will come back.
• A healthy Patton is worth more than a first round pick.  But like Scully, if they can offload Patton's salary they will discount the trade value

Hawks have pick 10 -  will that be part of the deal?

The significance for this thread is that GWS may have a lot more to play with (ie 3 mid first round picks) and many more options in negotiating a pick 2 split. 

The Hawks also have a father son coming through that they'll need picks/points for, he's not expected to get a bid until the 2nd round, so in the same regard that we're talking about GWS offering up their picks so they get their man and another high end pick, I can't see the Hawks giving up pick 10 then only getting Patton and the F/S. They'll want to get Patton, the F/S and retain some other picks too (well most other clubs would, lately the Hawks seem to hate taking young players).