Our winning % at the MCG before the Bye round

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

I started writing this post talking about our poor record at the MCG (which I know is often discussed here due to our poor leg spead, lack of spread, two way running etc), but when I looked more into the data, I was horrified at what I found when it came to our record at the MCG before the mid-season bye. 

Here are the numbers since Goodwin has taken over:

Total games at the  MCG before the bye rnd: 15 games

Wins: 3

Losses: 12

Winning % of 20%

Average losing margin of 19pts, avg. winning margin of 56pts. 

Avg. Points for: 88, avg points against: 92

If you take out the two Carlton games from here, it drops to 1 win (North Melb) and hence a winning % of 7% (1 win from 13 games)

So, over the last 2 and a qtr seasons, before the bye we've only ever beaten two teams at the MCG, North Melbourne and Carlton.. Geezus. 

Our worst streak of losses at the MCG is currently 4 (equal to rnds 4-9 of 2017 vs rnds 1-6 of 2019). I wonder if they'll achieve 5 losses on a trot this weekend?

On the flip side, after the mid-bye round, our winning % jumps up to 71% (10 wins, 4 losses).

--

For those interested, our record overall at the MCG under Goody is:

13 Wins, 16 losses, 44% winning ratio.

That is bloody poor for a team's home ground. Can't think of many 'good' teams who have as poor of a record. 

-

Also, for those interested at our winning % at other venues, it is:

Marvel: 6W, 1L - 86%

Gabba: 2W 0L - 100%

Ade Oval: 2W 1L: 66%

Domain & Optus combined: 2W, 1L: 66%

TIO (darwin): 1W 1L: 50%

TIO Traeger (Alice): 2W 0L: 100%

GMHBA : 0W 2L: 0%

SCG: 1W 0L: 100%

Blundstone: 0W 1L: 0%

Manuka: 0W 1L: 0%

So one last sobering stat, for all grounds where we've played 3 or more games at over the last 2 and a bit seasons, the MCG winning % is the worst. 

Edited April 30, 2019 by At the break of Gawn
-

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I started writing this post talking about our poor record at the MCG (which I know is often discussed here due to our poor leg spead, lack of spread, two way running etc), but when I looked more into the data, I was horrified at what I found when it came to our record at the MCG before the mid-season bye. 

Here are the numbers since Goodwin has taken over:

Total games at the  MCG before the bye rnd: 15 games

Wins: 3

Losses: 12

Winning % of 20%

Average losing margin of 19pts, avg. winning margin of 56pts. 

Avg. Points for: 88, avg points against: 92

If you take out the two Carlton games from here, it drops to 1 win (North Melb) and hence a winning % of 7% (1 win from 13 games)

So, over the last 2 and a qtr seasons, before the bye we've only ever beaten two teams at the MCG, North Melbourne and Carlton.. Geezus. 

Our worst streak of losses at the MCG is currently 4 (equal to rnds 4-9 of 2017 vs rnds 1-6 of 2019). I wonder if they'll achieve 5 losses on a trot this weekend?

On the flip side, after the mid-bye round, our winning % jumps up to 71% (10 wins, 4 losses).

--

For those interested, our record overall at the MCG under Goody is:

13 Wins, 16 losses, 44% winning ratio.

That is bloody poor for a team's home ground. Can't think of many 'good' teams who have as poor of a record. 

-

Also, for those interested at our winning % at other venues, it is:

Marvel: 6W, 1L - 86%

Gabba: 2W 0L - 100%

Ade Oval: 2W 1L: 66%

Domain & Optus combined: 2W, 1L: 66%

TIO (darwin): 1W 1L: 50%

TIO Traeger (Alice): 2W 0L: 100%

GMHBA : 0W 2L: 0%

SCG: 1W 0L: 100%

Blundstone: 0W 1L: 0%

Manuka: 0W 1L: 0%

So one last sobering stat, for all grounds where we've played 3 or more games at over the last 2 and a bit seasons, the MCG winning % is the worst. 

As I've said for the last few years, with our list and game style we will be much better off and improve our chances of making finals more regularly playing out of Marvel.

P.S. our success at Marvel isn't coincidental IMO.  Pre Roos era we were rubbish there.  His view/impressions/experience prior coaching experience at the Swans on a ground similar in dimensions.  Game style and list built around winning on that ground.  Brings similar to the MFC.  We start winning more often at Marvel as a result of similar framework, rebuild and 'type' of player recruiting/training and methods.  The GABBA probably most similar in size as well.  100% win record albeit small sample.  Is that just before the bye or all matches since Goody took over ABG?

Goody inherited a style / list that isn't designed to go all that well on the much larger territory of the G, more success on SCG sized grounds.  And that's how it's panning out.

Stadium Dimensions:

SCG:  155 x 136m

Marvel:  159.5 x 128.8m

MCG:  173.6 x 148.4m

Optus: 165m x 130m

Adelaide Oval:  167 x 123m

GABBA:  156 x 138m

Metricon:  161 x 134m

Giants Stadium:  164 x 127.5m

GMHBA:  170 x 115m

Edited April 30, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

21 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

As I've said for the last few years, with our list and game style we will be much better off and improve our chances of making finals more regularly playing out of Marvel

Yes, but the reality is that isn’t going to happen while our home is the G.

The fact that our winning % is quite decent after the bye round might actually strengthen the theory regarding a conditioning issue our list has playing on big grounds early in the season.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

37 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Yes, but the reality is that isn’t going to happen while our home is the G.

The fact that our winning % is quite decent after the bye round might actually strengthen the theory regarding a conditioning issue our list has playing on big grounds early in the season.

Would much rather get off to a good start than come from behind most years ABG.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

Is that just before the bye or all matches since Goody took over ABG?

All the stats referring to other grounds (non-mcg) in my post were across the 3 seasons (so before and after bye rounds). I didn't think there was much of a sample of other grounds before the bye rounds so included the entire season.

8 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Would much rather get off to a good start than come from behind most years ABG.

Absolutely. Funnily enough going into this season, our record at the MCG before the bye rounds was 27% winning ratio. So, this poor start isn't exactly out of the ordinary when you consider how poorly we play the MCG in the earlier part of the season.

Begs the question, why do we get it "right" at the latter part of the season and can win at the MCG (71%)? Is it just game style and the sample size probably isn't big enough, or is it conditioning, or is it something else?

[old dee 23,791]

This reminds me about all the crap talked about losing after playing in Darwin. What this shows is we are not a very good side. We are losing a lot. Back in the Darwin conversation era we lost everywhere. We have returned to losing lots so guess what we are going to lose a lot at the G.

[Diamond_Jim 12,588]

One word answer...... Gameplan

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,734]

I have a theory that early season games favour the quicker sides, but this advantage drops considerably as the season goes on. The reason for this is that the player's bodies become more fatigued from continuous games and the toll it takes on the body. Hence why we had a fairly good run come finals as we were well built with the inside game.

The aim is to get a fairly even mixture however, as not enough quicker, more skilled players means it is harder to get easier wins earlier in the season.

[DubDee 25,866]

3 hours ago, old dee said:

This reminds me about all the crap talked about losing after playing in Darwin. What this shows is we are not a very good side. We are losing a lot. Back in the Darwin conversation era we lost everywhere. We have returned to losing lots so guess what we are going to lose a lot at the G.

We won 16 last year.

Topic worth discussing imo

[Skuit 10,031]

9 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Also, for those interested at our winning % at other venues, it is:

GMHBA : 0W 2L: 0% / 170 x 115m

Ade Oval: 2W 1L: 66% /  167 x 123m

Marvel: 6W, 1L - 86% / 159.5 x 128.8m

Domain & Optus combined: 2W, 1L: 66% /  165m x 130m

SCG: 1W 0L: 100% / 155 x 136m

Gabba: 2W 0L - 100% / 156 x 138m

13 Wins, 16 losses, 44% /  173.6 x 148.4m

TIO (darwin): 1W 1L: 50%

TIO Traeger (Alice): 2W 0L: 100%

Blundstone: 0W 1L: 0%

Manuka: 0W 1L: 0%

 

Fantastic post ATBOG.

It's too small of a sample size to draw any solid conclusions outside of a comparison between the MCG and Marvel, and the post- and pre-bye record challenges most hypotheses - except Collar-Jazz-Knee's intriguing contribution.

Goodwin and the players have mentioned a few times that it's good to get on the road - with an insular team focus - and we have a decent away record, but again, this is undermined by our Marvel history as measured against the MCG.

I've reordered the list to reflect width (probably more of an issue than length but cant be bothered calculating area) courtesy of  Rusty's data where available (I had collected all the dimensions last year but can't also be bothered retrieving).

The easiest answer would be to point to the game-plan, and we certainly looked different this season when we were at the SCG and had the Swans pinned-in their defensive half for long stretches. But then we were pantsed by the Cats at Kardinia.

I floated the theory last year that rather than size, we preferred hard and fast tracks - as evidenced by our dominance over the (admittedly undermanned) Crows at Traeger - but I'm not sure how this correlates with other grounds.

I think @Collar-Jazz-Knee has floated the best theory to date to account for the pre- and post-bye anomaly, as well as our differing record at Marvel vs the MCG, but I'm looking forward to more ideas from the Demonland brains-trust.

[old dee 23,791]

8 hours ago, DubDee said:

We won 16 last year.

Topic worth discussing imo

I am not saying you cannot discuss it DD. IMO it is 90% caused by playing poorly and losing. We are a bottom four side that will win a couple of games in 2019. To try to blame that on the location of losing is fruitless. We will lose on all grounds most of the time. Simple IMO just get better and the location of games won't matter.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

10 hours ago, Collar-Jazz-Knee said:

I have a theory that early season games favour the quicker sides, but this advantage drops considerably as the season goes on. The reason for this is that the player's bodies become more fatigued from continuous games and the toll it takes on the body. Hence why we had a fairly good run come finals as we were well built with the inside game.

The aim is to get a fairly even mixture however, as not enough quicker, more skilled players means it is harder to get easier wins earlier in the season.

Really good point. That reminds me of a comment on SEN I heard a week-or-two ago where they said the winter months slow things down a bit, bigger body midfielders have more dominance. I'll definitely revisit this thread at the back end of the year and see if this trend continues. 

[binman 42,967]

11 hours ago, Collar-Jazz-Knee said:

I have a theory that early season games favour the quicker sides, but this advantage drops considerably as the season goes on. The reason for this is that the player's bodies become more fatigued from continuous games and the toll it takes on the body. Hence why we had a fairly good run come finals as we were well built with the inside game.

The aim is to get a fairly even mixture however, as not enough quicker, more skilled players means it is harder to get easier wins earlier in the season.

100% agree with this theory. And I have little doubt it is one goody (and roos before him) subscribers to. You only have to hear his talk about building a style that wins finals and the finals being a new season to understand that.

I reckon we rolled the dice with all the surgeries. Most were so called clean ups and i wonder if they could have been staggered rather than allat once, allowing more players the chance to build fitness before xmas. Yes that would mean some players not ready at the start of the season, but as it turns out that has happened with injuries, which have compounded our evident lack of of fitness.

[DubDee 25,866]

4 hours ago, old dee said:

I am not saying you cannot discuss it DD. IMO it is 90% caused by playing poorly and losing. We are a bottom four side that will win a couple of games in 2019. To try to blame that on the location of losing is fruitless. We will lose on all grounds most of the time. Simple IMO just get better and the location of games won't matter.

you said we don't win much and I was just correcting you. as we won a lot over the past year I think it's interesting to look at winning % per location

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

16 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

All the stats referring to other grounds (non-mcg) in my post were across the 3 seasons (so before and after bye rounds). I didn't think there was much of a sample of other grounds before the bye rounds so included the entire season.

Absolutely. Funnily enough going into this season, our record at the MCG before the bye rounds was 27% winning ratio. So, this poor start isn't exactly out of the ordinary when you consider how poorly we play the MCG in the earlier part of the season.

Begs the question, why do we get it "right" at the latter part of the season and can win at the MCG (71%)? Is it just game style and the sample size probably isn't big enough, or is it conditioning, or is it something else?

One left field theory ABG....

Possibly a confidence factor resulting from early scheduled games at the G?  

We often lose at the G early as our early games are 'usually' mostly played there in the first 4 to 6 rounds.

Within that first 6 round block (approx) we obviously play a few 'away' games.  We played one away, SCG in Rnd 4 for example, on a ground which obviously suits the post Roos designed player make up / game style...it is his old coaching stadium as we know.  We notch up our first and only win there.

Unfortunately we were straight back to the G and the losing (and as a result downturn in player confidence) starts again.

Is it a coincidence we are 1 & 5 having lost all games at the G on a ground that doesn't suit post Roos?

Had we played a few matches away at grounds that are more suited, and consecutively, ...say SCG, Marvel vs the Cats/Bombers, then off to the GABBA for example.  Possibly win three in a row....confidence has lifted substantially on the next return leg at the G...improves chances of winning there earlier in the fixture.

But we usually don't find ourselves at the more suited venues that often until later into the season (ie; roughly post Rnd 6) and by that stage we're behind the eight ball and confidence down big time.

Confidence hard to regain.  Easier to gain/retain when you string a series of wins together earlyish in those first 6 rounds.  Playing at the G hinders and impacts our team confidence as the losses mount early.  We win it back by playing / winning at more suited venues later into the fixture.  Then win later at the G more often with confidence back.

Something to consider.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[old dee 23,791]

15 minutes ago, DubDee said:

you said we don't win much and I was just correcting you. as we won a lot over the past year I think it's interesting to look at winning % per location

Ok look away to your heart's content. You may be correct that our team is not suited to the G. It just means we change the team members or game plan or perhaps both. Back to my thoughts just get better.

 

5 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

One left field theory ABG....

Possibly a confidence factor resulting from early scheduled games at the G?  

We often lose at the G early as our early games are 'usually' mostly played there in the first 4 to 6 rounds.

Within that first 6 round block (approx) we obviously play a few 'away' games.  We played one away, SCG in Rnd 4 for example, on a ground which obviously suits the post Roos designed player make up / game style...it is his old coaching stadium as we know.  We notch up out first and only win there.

Unfortunately we were straight back to the G and the losing (and as a result downturn in player confidence) starts again.

Is it a coincidence we are 1 & 5 having lost all games at the G on a ground that doesn't suit post Roos?

Had we played a few matches away at grounds that are more suited, and constructively,  ...say SCG, Marvel vs the Cats/Bombers, then off to the GABBA for example.  Possibly win three in a row....confidence has lifted substantially on the next return leg at the G...improves chances of winning there earlier in the fixture.

But we usually don't find ourselves at the more suited venues that often until later into the season (ie; roughly post Rnd 6) and by that stage we're behind the eight ball and confidence down big time.

Confidence hard to regain.  Easier to gain/retain when you string a series of wins together earlyish in those first 6 rounds.  Playing at the G hinders and impacts our team confidence as the losses mount early.

Something to consider

No idea how this got here and cannot remove it. Hi RN.

Edited May 1, 2019 by old dee

[Deemania since 56 6,637]

18 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I started writing this post talking about our poor record at the MCG (which I know is often discussed here due to our poor leg spead, lack of spread, two way running etc), but when I looked more into the data, I was horrified at what I found when it came to our record at the MCG before the mid-season bye. 

Here are the numbers since Goodwin has taken over:

Total games at the  MCG before the bye rnd: 15 games

Wins: 3

Losses: 12

Winning % of 20%

Average losing margin of 19pts, avg. winning margin of 56pts. 

Avg. Points for: 88, avg points against: 92

If you take out the two Carlton games from here, it drops to 1 win (North Melb) and hence a winning % of 7% (1 win from 13 games)

So, over the last 2 and a qtr seasons, before the bye we've only ever beaten two teams at the MCG, North Melbourne and Carlton.. Geezus. 

Our worst streak of losses at the MCG is currently 4 (equal to rnds 4-9 of 2017 vs rnds 1-6 of 2019). I wonder if they'll achieve 5 losses on a trot this weekend?

On the flip side, after the mid-bye round, our winning % jumps up to 71% (10 wins, 4 losses).

--

For those interested, our record overall at the MCG under Goody is:

13 Wins, 16 losses, 44% winning ratio.

That is bloody poor for a team's home ground. Can't think of many 'good' teams who have as poor of a record. 

-

Also, for those interested at our winning % at other venues, it is:

Marvel: 6W, 1L - 86%

Gabba: 2W 0L - 100%

Ade Oval: 2W 1L: 66%

Domain & Optus combined: 2W, 1L: 66%

TIO (darwin): 1W 1L: 50%

TIO Traeger (Alice): 2W 0L: 100%

GMHBA : 0W 2L: 0%

SCG: 1W 0L: 100%

Blundstone: 0W 1L: 0%

Manuka: 0W 1L: 0%

So one last sobering stat, for all grounds where we've played 3 or more games at over the last 2 and a bit seasons, the MCG winning % is the worst. 

Sobering, sadly. Suspected, too right. Actual wins, anywhere, pathetic.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, old dee said:

Ok look away to your heart's content. You may be correct that our team is not suited to the G. It just means we change the team members or game plan or perhaps both. Back to my thoughts just get better.

 

No idea how this got here and cannot remove it. Hi RN.

? happens to me also OD...refresh button works for me sometimes ✌?

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

I don't buy too much into when in the year we win at the G. For example last year we only played our fellow MCG tenants in the first half of the year. I'm sure losing to Richmond and Collingwood after the bye this year as well as before will shift the balance to a much simpler awful record throughout the whole season

But comparing us paints an ugly picture. They all finished in the top 4. With the following H/A season records at the G.

Rich: 14-0, Coll 8-6, Haw 7-3

Obviously Richmond is a freakish outlier but at 5-6 that still puts us a long way back

And we were 0-3 against them by an average of 51... We play them 5 times this year..

Last year our away record was nothing short of spectacular. We won every game away from Vic except the Port game. That is a premiership quality away record. It did a good job covering for our MCG flops.. but winning away is unsustainable.  The best teams a feared at home, simply put, we are not. The teams with winning home records play finals, and the ones with winning away record make top 4. Somehow we managed to do the hard part and failed at the easy part.

Ironically despite the popular campaign to ditch them, our interstate wins in NT were the difference between finals and disappointment.

[old dee 23,791]

8 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

? happens to me also OD...refresh button works for me sometimes ✌?

I was told a long time ago that as you age you understand more in life.

I actually find the opposite is true.

Why does my phone update every time I turn around and as a result change things that takes me 10 minutes to fix?

Why do politicians still look like self serving raiders  of the public purse?

Why do I still follow the MFC?

Edited May 1, 2019 by old dee

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, old dee said:

I was told a long time ago that as you age you understand more in life.

I actually find the opposite is true.

Why does my phone update every time I turn around and as a result change things that takes me 10 minutes to fix?

Why do politicians still look like self serving raiders  of the public purse?

Why do I still follow the MFC?

Was it Keating who said life wasn't meant to be easy OD?  If so thats one of the few lines i can recall from any of them.  Oh and the 'may God save the Queen speech' by old Gough.  My immediate reaction to any political speech fest is to mentally or physically switch off.  I would much rather walk, play or do anything with my dog, listen to some jazz / mood music etc than their ranting.

If i have learned one thing in life it's that I'm a terrible multi tasker.  Which is probably why my brain caved in after i got to the phone part!

[old dee 23,791]

10 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Was it Keating who said life wasn't meant to be easy OD?  If so thats one of the few lines i can recall from any of them.  Oh and the 'may God save the Queen speech' by old Gough.  My immediate reaction to any political speech fest is to mentally or physically switch off.  I would much rather walk, play or do anything with my dog, listen to some jazz / mood music etc than their ranting.

If i have learned one thing in life it's that I'm a terrible multi tasker.  Which is probably why my brain caved in after i got to the phone part!

Malcolm Fraser RN.

My wife says all men are one problem at a time beings.

i think she is 100% correct.

[praha 11,240]

Things change, yet remaining the same/get worse...

12 months ago:

https://demonland.com/forums/topic/43844-our-performance-on-the-mcg/

"IMO, I think our biggest challenge as a team at the moment is mastering the MCG. If we can't perform reliably and consistently on the ground, then we will struggle to ever do more than make up the numbers.

I also feel it is the only thing atm standing in the way of us being a top 4 side."

Edited May 1, 2019 by praha

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

15 minutes ago, praha said:

Things change, yet remaining the same/get worse...

12 months ago:

https://demonland.com/forums/topic/43844-our-performance-on-the-mcg/

"IMO, I think our biggest challenge as a team at the moment is mastering the MCG. If we can't perform reliably and consistently on the ground, then we will struggle to ever do more than make up the numbers.

I also feel it is the only thing atm standing in the way of us being a top 4 side."

Excellent work Praha.  As was this piece in the same thread from another astute D'lander from this time last year...

On 5/10/2018 at 7:57 AM, Lucifer's Hero said

Our aggressive press makes it easy for opp to get the ball wide on the wing, flick it over or around our press and run it forward.  Our lack of leg speed makes it hard to catch the ball carrier.

Richmond have a press but they defend 'in formation' as do Hawthorn and keep some players around their back 50 arc.  Sydney play the MCG well but they have a more traditional man on man defence and always keep a sweeper deep (McVeigh).  Those teams don't follow the opp forwards up the ground so when there is a turnover, they pick up their man or move their defence back 'in formation'.  As our defenders are so high (around or forward of the centre) we loose our defensive structure so even if we have a 'formation' it falls apart.  Simply put, the G is too wide for our current game style especially against the better sides.

That Goodwin says Etihad suits our game style means he is also aware (I hope) why it doesn't succeed on the G.  He has changed a few things since the Hawthorn game (eg more mileage from Max's clearances, fewer players in the packs and putting players in their 'best' position eg Brayshaw).  

If we are ever to get a 'Home Ground' advantage and go deep into the finals we need a game plan that succeeds it.  So, I'm looking forward to see what changes are made to 'Conquer The G'. 

[beelzebub 23,376]

2 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Excellent work Praha.  As was this piece in the same thread from another astute D'lander from this time last year...

On 5/10/2018 at 7:57 AM, Lucifer's Hero said

Our aggressive press makes it easy for opp to get the ball wide on the wing, flick it over or around our press and run it forward.  Our lack of leg speed makes it hard to catch the ball carrier.

Richmond have a press but they defend 'in formation' as do Hawthorn and keep some players around their back 50 arc.  Sydney play the MCG well but they have a more traditional man on man defence and always keep a sweeper deep (McVeigh).  Those teams don't follow the opp forwards up the ground so when there is a turnover, they pick up their man or move their defence back 'in formation'.  As our defenders are so high (around or forward of the centre) we loose our defensive structure so even if we have a 'formation' it falls apart.  Simply put, the G is too wide for our current game style especially against the better sides.

That Goodwin says Etihad suits our game style means he is also aware (I hope) why it doesn't succeed on the G.  He has changed a few things since the Hawthorn game (eg more mileage from Max's clearances, fewer players in the packs and putting players in their 'best' position eg Brayshaw).  

If we are ever to get a 'Home Ground' advantage and go deep into the finals we need a game plan that succeeds it.  So, I'm looking forward to see what changes are made to 'Conquer The G'. 

we're coming along in leaps and bounds....golly it's exciting, these times.......