Skuit 10,031 Posted March 31, 2019 Posted March 31, 2019 (edited) Demonland’s 2019 Home of Stats A bad time to get the ball rolling on 2019’s stats-file (and an obviously small sample) but hopefully we can keep this thread free of the usual so and so. Yes, stats never tell the full story. Yes, we all have eyes and can see what’s unfolding on the field. Yes, there’s only one stat that matter at the end of the day. But they can be a useful predictor to note trends and see which way things might be heading. Facebook isn’t worth $500 billion because of its advertising. Where there’s a negative stat – e.g. tackles against – it’s ranked in order of desirability; 18th being the most tackles against. Clearances – 1st Centre Clearances – 1st Contested Possessions – 2nd Tackles – 2nd Inside 50 – 5th Tackles i-50 – 1st CP Against – 18th Tackles against – 18th Uncontested Possessions – 18th UP Against – 14th Disposal Efficiency – 16th Turnovers – 17th Intercepts – 17th Clangers – 13th Contested Marks – 18th CM against – 9th Marks i-50 – 9th Notes: The three teams with the least number of kicks are the bottom three teams – the only such reliable indicator. Port and Geelong are 2nd and 3rd for clearances (and 1st and 4th for contested) but we’re only 12th for clearances against – indicating they could both well be particularly strong in this area. Both finished in the top six for contested and clearances last year. Summary: Despite not yet fully firing, the footy department would be pleased we’re still leading our key stat departments: contested, clearances, tackles. The decent number of inside-50 marks and tackles is a surprise (the latter perhaps highlighting our lack of crumb). We’re also forcing a contested battle as evidenced by the number of contested possessions and tackles against. Our skills are clearly letting us down though – with high turnovers, intercepts against and poor efficiency. We’re not a big uncontested possession team (9th last year) but ranking dead last is an issue – bombing forward and lacking or not finding run/options. Goodwin: we need better connection and to get the fundamentals (skill execution) right. We are no doubt still rusty. Also of concern, last year we were 2nd for contested marks and 3rd for intercepts – now bottom two for both. With Pedo and Hogan gone, Max struggling to get off the ground, Tmac out of sorts and Lever on the sidelines, we’re getting beaten in the air. Lever, Lewis and Smith were also among our top five intercepters last year – as well as Jetta who is well down on form. Next up: the Bombers are in the bottom-five for just about every category bar contested marks and clearances, both 7th, but interestingly they are last for centre-clearances and second for stoppages. Our previous two contests have been uneven affairs due to us having an extra day's rest on short-turnarounds – so I don’t think much can be read into the stats there. Go Dees! Edited March 31, 2019 by Skuit 1 1 2 Quote
Demon Dynasty 17,164 Posted April 2, 2019 Posted April 2, 2019 (edited) Stats Predictor has the Bombers winning by 10 Points Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round Demons Bombers Bottom 6 Demons Bombers Note: Composite does not account for hit outs to advantage. Edited April 2, 2019 by Rusty Nails 1 Quote
titan_uranus 25,252 Posted April 5, 2019 Posted April 5, 2019 Opposition goal-scoring strike rates in 2019: Essendon - 20 goals from 53 entries, which is a 37.7% strike rate Geelong - 20 goals, 48 entries, 41.7% Port - 12 goals, 59 entries, 20.3% Opposition overall scoring strike rates in 2019: Essendon - 30 shots, 53 entries, 57% Geelong - 26 shots, 48 entries, 54% Port Adelaide - 27 shots, 59 entries, 46% So pretty much we're conceding a score every second time our opponent gets inside our defensive 50 and a goal every third time. 1 Quote
Jaded No More 68,976 Posted April 5, 2019 Posted April 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, titan_uranus said: Opposition goal-scoring strike rates in 2019: Essendon - 20 goals from 53 entries, which is a 37.7% strike rate Geelong - 20 goals, 48 entries, 41.7% Port - 12 goals, 59 entries, 20.3% Opposition overall scoring strike rates in 2019: Essendon - 30 shots, 53 entries, 57% Geelong - 26 shots, 48 entries, 54% Port Adelaide - 27 shots, 59 entries, 46% So pretty much we're conceding a score every second time our opponent gets inside our defensive 50 and a goal every third time. Worst defensive side in the league. 1 Quote
Demon Dynasty 17,164 Posted April 5, 2019 Posted April 5, 2019 (edited) Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) Rnd 3 vs The Bombers... Bottom 6 ranked players... Note: Composite does not account for hit outs to advantage. Edited April 5, 2019 by Rusty Nails Quote
Demon Dynasty 17,164 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 (edited) Normally i would not post any weighted average rankings till at least round 6 as the amount of data to go on just isn't robust enough. And in this case the same principle applies so best not to take too much notice of the table below, especially with some players having played only one match and others coming in under done etc. However, thought i'd go a tad early due to the less than stellar beginning to get a very rough idea where some players are at, even at this premature phase, versus their entire 2018 season averages. Will revisit this again after Rnd 6 vs 2018 and also compare the block of 3 games from tomorrow evening through to the Tigers and compare percentage & rank changes vs the first 3 rounds. Whoever it was in the press who said Clarry (among others) is a bit off, needs to have a rethink IMHO. May be a tad up and down (who isn't / wasn't in the first 3 rounds) but over the 3 matches so far he has started pretty much exactly where he left off in 2018, and that after surgery on both shoulders! This is the stuff legends are made of....get around him boys! Premierships are won off the back of great players with courage such as Clarry, as long as everyone pulls in the same direction (and most gaping holes filled with solid recruiting!). Carn the Mighty Demons! Note: Big M's stats do not include hit outs to advantage. His ranking would obviously be altered if there was some way of including this stat specific to ruck work only. Edited April 10, 2019 by Rusty Nails 2 Quote
buck_nekkid 6,100 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 Thanks Rusty, always appreciate your stats. I know it’s early, but a few surprises emerging. Clarry doing well. Viney, TMac Hibbard and Trac all trending the wrong way... 2 Quote
Skuit 10,031 Posted April 10, 2019 Author Posted April 10, 2019 On 4/2/2019 at 2:09 AM, Rusty Nails said: Stats Predictor has the Bombers winning by 10 Points Not a bad effort Rusty. Do I want to know what it predicts for this week? Quote
Demon Dynasty 17,164 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Skuit said: Not a bad effort Rusty. Do I want to know what it predicts for this week? ✌? cheers Skuit and Buck. I took a sneak peak straight after the Swans match ....lets just say it wasnt exactly warming ? Although they were playing the Blues so maybe, just maybe, things are out of whack on their numbers. I'll try and adjust for Ins / Outs (where possible) after tonight's announcements before hitting the prediction button and posting on here. Quote
praha 11,267 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 Thanks for your effort. Our engine room is firing based on those stats but the clearance and transition rates are a major indictment on the midfield group. It goes to show that winning the ball isn't enough: using an old cliche, you need to run both ways. The value of your clearances and ability to score is only as strong as your ability to defend. TBH there were more positives in our loss vs Geelong than against Essendon. 1 Quote
Demon Dynasty 17,164 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, praha said: Thanks for your effort. Our engine room is firing based on those stats but the clearance and transition rates are a major indictment on the midfield group. It goes to show that winning the ball isn't enough: using an old cliche, you need to run both ways. The value of your clearances and ability to score is only as strong as your ability to defend. TBH there were more positives in our loss vs Geelong than against Essendon. Such a complex and difficult game Praha. Hoping it's more an under done fitness/tank issue that's impacting the defensive two way aspect. The outs are definitely impacting also. No point being too harsh at this point but at some stage those who seem to be way off it vs last year (trend wise) need to start lifting their output/form. If we had a few more knocking on the door at Casey it might help also. 1 Quote
Optimus D 283 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 Is there a fumble factor or ugly football factor in the realm of footy statistics. Quote
Demon Dynasty 17,164 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 40 minutes ago, Optimus D said: Is there a fumble factor or ugly football factor in the realm of footy statistics. Clangers and Turnovers would probably go some way towards it Optimus. That's all we have at public level. Champion data may have something more specific we aren't privy to. Quote
Demon Dynasty 17,164 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 Stats Predictor has the Swans winning by 26 Points (excludes allowance for umpiring bias!). Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round Demons Swans Bottom 6 Demons Swans *Omitted for Rnd 4 2019 Quote
Skuit 10,031 Posted April 17, 2019 Author Posted April 17, 2019 Probably belongs in the Clarry thread, but (courtesy of some twitterist named @sirswampthing): Fewest career games to register 10 games of 20+ contested possessions 64 - Clayton Oliver 65 - Patrick Cripps 81 - Josh Kennedy 94 - Nat Fyfe 110 - Tom Mitchell 1 Quote
58er 6,871 Posted April 17, 2019 Posted April 17, 2019 43 minutes ago, Skuit said: Probably belongs in the Clarry thread, but (courtesy of some twitterist named @sirswampthing): Fewest career games to register 10 games of 20+ contested possessions 64 - Clayton Oliver 65 - Patrick Cripps 81 - Josh Kennedy 94 - Nat Fyfe 110 - Tom Mitchell Exalted company no doubt A champion and we are so lucky to have Clarry and not a Parishioner!! 1 Quote
Skuit 10,031 Posted April 17, 2019 Author Posted April 17, 2019 Also, while I'm here, may as well add some other MFC-related tid-bits from this swamp guy. Biggest hit-out differentials in a game - @AFL era +66 - 2015 R12 - nth (89) v gws (23) +60 - 2019 R04 - MELB (73) v SYD (13) +59 - 2015 R09 - frem (86) v adel (27) +56 - 2016 R09 - wce (71) v port (15) Most recent MELB players to have 20+ disposals and 3+ goals in a game vs SYD 2019 R04 - NATHAN JONES 2007 R05- Aaron Davey 2000 R18 - Shane Woewodin 2000 R03 - Andrew Leoncelli 1993 R13 - Garry Lyon Melb vs. Syd: the third time in past 3 years that sets of brothers from 3 different families have all played in the same V/@AFL game 2017 R18 ADEL v GEEL & 2018 R16 MELB v FREM being the others. The overall V/@AFL record for sets of brothers from different families playing is 5 (most recently in 1933). 1 Quote
Skuit 10,031 Posted April 17, 2019 Author Posted April 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, 58er said: Exalted company no doubt A champion and we are so lucky to have Clarry and not a Parishioner!! I put this one together a couple seasons back - with several players still current it needs an update if anyone can be bothered. Cripps may have entered the list by now as well. A fair few Brownlows among this crop. The most contested possession across two games (career): Patrick Dangerfield - 48 (2017; in career games 190/191) Clayton Oliver - 46 (2017; in career games 30/31) Josh Kennedy/Nat Fyfe - 46 Chris Judd - 44 Gary Ablett Jr. - 41 Dustin Martin/Jobe Watson - 40 Joel Selwood - 39 Dane Swan - 37 Trent Cotchin - 36 3 Quote
58er 6,871 Posted April 17, 2019 Posted April 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Skuit said: I put this one together a couple seasons back - with several players still current it needs an update if anyone can be bothered. Cripps may have entered the list by now as well. A fair few Brownlows among this crop. The most contested possession across two games (career): Patrick Dangerfield - 48 (2017; in career games 190/191) Clayton Oliver - 46 (2017; in career games 30/31) Josh Kennedy/Nat Fyfe - 46 Chris Judd - 44 Gary Ablett Jr. - 41 Dustin Martin/Jobe Watson - 40 Joel Selwood - 39 Dane Swan - 37 Trent Cotchin - 36 Go Clarry !! Quote
Demon Dynasty 17,164 Posted April 19, 2019 Posted April 19, 2019 Round 5, 2019 Demons vs Saints MCG Pure Stats Predictor has the Saints winning by 10 Points (includes best estimate for Ins/Outs) Team weighted score Last Round prior to Ins/Outs.... Demons 53.93 Saints 61.10 Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round Demons Saints Bottom 6 Demons Saints *Omitted this round (5) 2019 Quote
buck_nekkid 6,100 Posted April 19, 2019 Posted April 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Rusty Nails said: Round 5, 2019 Demons vs Saints MCG Pure Stats Predictor has the Saints winning by 10 Points (includes best estimate for Ins/Outs) Team weighted score Last Round prior to Ins/Outs.... Demons 53.93 Saints 61.10 Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round Demons Saints Bottom 6 Demons Saints *Omitted this round (5) 2019 Wow. Our top 6 all score below any of their top 6. That seems bizarre! Quote
Demon Dynasty 17,164 Posted April 19, 2019 Posted April 19, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said: Wow. Our top 6 all score below any of their top 6. That seems bizarre! Possibly an indicator of form ....or maybe not Buck. The differing outcomes might also be a result of the quality of the opposition on the day/night in question. Other factors such as a high pressure match versus free flowing in the other etc. Far from a perfect science especially using one set of numbers from one match to compare. Comparing averages over 3 to 4 weeks probably a bit more robust. P.S. Our bottom 6 are better!! Edited April 19, 2019 by Rusty Nails 1 1 Quote
DV8 2,271 Posted April 19, 2019 Posted April 19, 2019 38 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said: Wow. Our top 6 all score below any of their top 6. That seems bizarre! The saints have won more games than us this year, so far. They have had better form. But we are starting to move. Quote
titan_uranus 25,252 Posted April 22, 2019 Posted April 22, 2019 Interesting stats posted on the AFL website in an article having a significant crack at us. https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-04-22/stats-files-whos-become-the-poster-boy-for-dees-plight Most interesting to me is the CP differential statistic. We were +17.7 in 2018 for CPs (i.e. we averaged 17.7 more CPs then our opposition). This year we are -1.6. Our "one wood" is to dominate CPs, get first touch on the ball and bully our opposition's midfield. When we do that, we get confidence, our opposition's midfield has less impact, and I reckon we find ourselves converting more inside 50s (last year we scored from 46.4% of our inside 50s, that figure is down to 33.7% this year). We've built our list, and moulded our gameplan, around a starting fundamental of dominating CPs. We're not doing that this year and IMO many of the rest of our problems stem from this. 2 Quote
Sir Why You Little 37,450 Posted April 22, 2019 Posted April 22, 2019 (edited) I came across this last night. Scary reading as the problem is getting worse with each loss... Edited April 22, 2019 by Sir Why You Little 1 Quote
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