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Run home to Finals - 2018

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Wolfturdo Demon

Wolfturdo   123

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Dr.D said:

you guys are laughable. the title of this thread should be "run home to 10th". since the port loss our season was done! most of you demonlanders learnt nothing from last season. and i forgot the username of the guy i had a bet with :)

That’s because you’re an idiot, 

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corowa
corowa

I was 17 when I saw us win our Grand Final in 1964. I didn't think I'd reach 71 without us winning another!  

JV7
JV7

It’s set up for us... We win out there is a very strong chance we finish 2nd. GWS injuries are piling up again & we know the loss of Gaff on field is huge for WC but who knows what the impact of t

Nasher
Nasher

No matter what happens from here on, if anyone says "we don't deserve to play finals" as if implying we deserve it any less than Geelong, Port, Hawthorn or any of those other clubs around our mark, I'

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brendan Redleg

brendan   3,433

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

If the following four things happen, then even if we lose both games we can make it:

  1. North lose to Adelaide
  2. Port lose to Collingwood
  3. Essendon lose to Richmond
  4. Port lose to Essendon

If those happen, then when we get to our game vs GWS, both Port and Essendon will both have 12 wins (and North beating St Kilda puts them on 12 as well). Barring two blowout losses to WC and GWS, our percentage will keep us in the 8 above Port, Essendon and North and we won't even need to beat GWS.

The four results above are not completely out of the question - I don't see Port beating Collingwood or Essendon beating Richmond, for example. I'm not so confident on North losing to Adelaide but it's entirely possible. But tbh I really don't see Port losing at home to Essendon in the final round, with finals to play for. Stranger things have happened, but I don't see it

In order to miss with a 13th win:

  1. one of Geelong, North and Essendon (the 11-win teams) has to catch us on percentage (only Geelong can realistically do this); and
  2. Port has to win both games

I don't see both of those happening - I just don't see Port winning both, us winning one and still Geelong catching us on percentage.

tl;dr - we just need to win a game.

Problem with that is if port do only beat Essendon the players will know they need to beat GWS To make finals, the players will go into meltdown and won’t show up 

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Bobby McKenzie Redleg

Bobby McKenzie   2,368

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Posted
3 hours ago, leucopogon said:

Season over for mine, mental fragility is our distinguishing characteristic

I hope the players don't have your defeatist attitude mate. Also quite a few more posters are throwing in the towel very early. I stated earlier in the week that finals started for us today with a triple chance. That has been reduced to a double chance now but we still have our own destiny in our hands. These are teams that we have to beat if we are going to give the finals a shake.

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beelzebub Legend

beelzebub   23,250

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Posted

We haven't beaten anyone of significance really all season.

Might I ask then why do some now suppose we'll beat either or both teams currently 2nd and 3rd ? 

I'm not being defeatist to simply abide by realistic appraisal. 

Finals now looming as a bridge too far. I saw very little from my seat yesterday to counter this view.

Dream on

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What Legend

What   18,810

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13 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

We haven't beaten anyone of significance really all season.

Might I ask then why do some now suppose we'll beat either or both teams currently 2nd and 3rd ? 

I'm not being defeatist to simply abide by realistic appraisal. 

Finals now looming as a bridge too far. I saw very little from my seat yesterday to counter this view.

Dream on

We bounced back after the Geelong heart breaker to beat Adelaide in Adelaide, we will beat West Coast this week.

We will play finals.

 

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beelzebub Legend

beelzebub   23,250

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Posted
1 minute ago, Petraccattack said:

We bounced back after the Geelong heart breaker to beat Adelaide in Adelaide, we will beat West Coast this week.

We will play finals.

 

Adelaide are where on the ladder ?

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beelzebub Legend

beelzebub   23,250

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

10th I believe.

I still dont rate West Coast. 

At home Weagles are no push over. Can't see us pushing enough.

Giants...the only chance at remaining in the 8....but hey we're Melbourne. 

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SFebes Redleg

SFebes   4,864

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, beelzebub said:

We haven't beaten anyone of significance really all season.

Might I ask then why do some now suppose we'll beat either or both teams currently 2nd and 3rd ? 

I'm not being defeatist to simply abide by realistic appraisal. 

Finals now looming as a bridge too far. I saw very little from my seat yesterday to counter this view.

Dream on

0-7 against the top 9 teams as they stand.

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Jibroni Redleg

Jibroni   4,946

Posted
Posted

West Coast were good on the weekend considering the week they had, they will be too good this week with our fragilities. 

As for GWS I really have no idea, following this club really does your head in sometimes.

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Jibroni Redleg

Jibroni   4,946

Posted
Posted

As a add on we have far too many players just roaming around and expecting things to happen, the 2nd quarter is a prime example.

We also lack leaders with agreesion - missing Viney doesn't help.

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Superunknown Redleg

Superunknown   4,160

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13 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

West Coast were good on the weekend considering the week they had, they will be too good this week with our fragilities. 

As for GWS I really have no idea, following this club really does your head in sometimes.

I'm expecting a circa 5 goal loss to the Eagles (but as bad as 8goals) and a 4 goal loss to GWS.

 

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Bring-Back-Powell Legend

Bring-Back-Powell   14,495

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Posted
16 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

 I just don't see Port winning both, us winning one and still Geelong catching us on percentage.

Assuming we have a close loss and a close win, Geelong would need to win both of their games by a combined 200 points to catch us on percentage.

Given they play Freo who have half of their side including Fyfe and Gold Coast, it's quite achievable.

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praha Legend

praha   11,218

Posted
Posted

Going to skip the game this weekend. Don't have the energy. Going to watch Mission Impossible and get a nice dinner. Will do the same against GWS unless we beat WC. 

No way I'm committing another weekend to being ruined.

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old55 Legend

old55   23,027

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Any chance of this MULTI coming up for us to make final on 12 wins:

1.Essendon to losing to Richmond

2.Port losing to Collingwood

3. North losing to Adelaide

4. Port losing to Essendon.

that's paying $22 at Sportsbet (including the MFC losses)

$5.63 without the MFC games

Edited by Fifty-5
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old55 Legend

old55   23,027

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://squiggle.com.au/?rid=201822

Right now Squiggle's combined models have us 44% vs West Coast and 63% against GWS (they keep swinging around a bit).

That means we're:

  • 0.44*0.63 = 28% to win both
  • 0.44*0.37+0.63*0.56 = 51% to win one
  • 0.56*0.37 = 21% to win none

Don't shoot me I'm just the piano player.

Edited by Fifty-5
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beelzebub Legend

beelzebub   23,250

Posted
Posted

Just a thought...the bookies had us winning against the Bloods. 

Play carefully with numbers ;)

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Superunknown Redleg

Superunknown   4,160

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, praha said:

Going to skip the game this weekend. Don't have the energy. Going to watch Mission Impossible and get a nice dinner. Will do the same against GWS unless we beat WC. 

No way I'm committing another weekend to being ruined.

Tom Cruise more reliable output than the MFC, even with a broken ankle. Saw it yesterday. Walked out, checked scores, rolled eyes. "Luv! Hey Luv! We've got the Colliwobbles!"

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