Stats-file 2018

[Skuit 10,031]

6 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

A quick stats form guide looking at the first 8 rounds compared to the last 5 if anyone's interested.

There are some surprising and not so surprising movers as well as some big falls from grace.

How the hec does Clarry do it!!   '+' means no change in rank but an improved score eg.,., Clarry & Jones.   Fritchskreig has had quite a month or so!   Does the Hibb drop off coincide somewhat with Lever's departure?  Hogan off the charts, but unfortunately in the wrong direction.

 

# Missed 3 match minimum for ranking / comparative purposes in this block.

* Did not play in first 8 rounds for comparative purposes.

Note:  Max would rank higher if 'hit outs to advantage' were included in weightings.

Rusty, are these your stats? I recall someone had their own system but not sure who. There will always be statistical biases in any system when comparing players across positions (and not accounting for intangibles) but in general these tables are a reasonable reflection of what many here I think would consider the form-lines of most of our players. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,130]

1 hour ago, Skuit said:

Rusty, are these your stats? I recall someone had their own system but not sure who. There will always be statistical biases in any system when comparing players across positions (and not accounting for intangibles) but in general these tables are a reasonable reflection of what many here I think would consider the form-lines of most of our players. 

I get the stats from Footywire and compose them as a weighted average Skuit.

Pretty basic and i'm sure any decent stats analyst would probably pick it to bits but after a few tweaks and a bit of reverse engineering (till about round 5 / 6 this year) i let it be as i found it to be a reasonably accurate guide as to how a player is fairing within a match / over the season.

As you said there would be a number of biases and a few outliers in there if you weren't bothering to observe the games (always a better option of course!).  A good example O-Mac, who tends to play a blanketing role and by design doesn't rack up many cheap stats out the back vs many other defenders.  On surface the ranking makes him look ordinary vs other defenders but as we know, in most matches he has done a fine job so far with a couple of exceptions.

I sometimes use it as a reminder to what a player might or might not be doing or how he is going vs peers in a similar role.  Kind of a flag if you like, then link that up with "Stats Pro" to see if the reality in game is anything like what the composite (or the stats within it) are indicating.  A handy reference point if you like as we sometimes forget what we've seen (at least i do anyway).  You simply can't take in everything on the day and our vision sometimes blurred by various distractions / biases / beers / flag waving / the war office etc!

[Deemania since 56 6,763]

Stats are great and in many cases these show what was expected and what was dreaded. It also has an inbuilt variable that defies what we may expect in terms of contributions that we have unwittingly been satisfied with - or appalled by - but also shows some areas of improvement that could be implemented. Great for analysis, Rusty, thank you. It is also interesting to note that on the whole, DL posters are rather good analysers of our game and personnel - particularly of those dominant players that we like or particularly remain ambivalent towards. Great stuff.

[SFebes 4,884]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-03/the-stats-files-the-unsung-heroes-vital-to-team-success#/

 

[Skuit 10,031]

Here's a stat. 

2018: Round 15 - points against 1173

2017: Round 15 - points against 1236

2016: Round 15 - points against 1328

 

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,130]

We are often talking about our kicking skills (generally) and how we would like to see some more accuracy hitting up targets and in general.

In some ways i think the dropping away of this skill in the last few weeks and our ability to maintain possession and therefore control the momentum of the game (by foot where you don''t have to play on), has cost us dearly and seen us move away from what we were doing more of and more of successfully in the games we were dominating.

Controlling the ball in those matches for extended periods (without turning it over as often) allowed us to halt some of the opp's run ons and maintain and then go on to build on our lead once we caught our breath and reset for the next flurry of attacking break neck play.

Obviously pressure from the opponent playing a large part here but possibly the speed (or lack thereof) of many of our potential receivers and their inability to get away from their more speedy opponents (in some cases) also may have played a part.

So here's a brief summary of the season so far, broken down into positions so it's a little more relevant.  I have not included players who have only played one match so far like Stretch, Maynard & Petty.   Note the positions are determined by AFL StatsPro and i don't have time to adjust into more relevant positions in most cases.  The two obvious exceptions (for me anyway) were T-Mac where i moved him from a Key Defender to a Key Forward and Spargo from a Mid Fielder to a Forward....

Edited July 3, 2018 by Rusty Nails

[titan_uranus 25,174]

11 hours ago, Skuit said:

Here's a stat. 

2018: Round 15 - points against 1173

2017: Round 15 - points against 1236

2016: Round 15 - points against 1328

Presumably our inside 50 count against is much lower than 2017 too, @Skuit?

Edited July 3, 2018 by titan_uranus

[SFebes 4,884]

7 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

We are often talking about our kicking skills (generally) and how we would like to see some more accuracy hitting up targets and in general.

In some ways i think the dropping away of this skill in the last few weeks and our ability to maintain possession and therefore control the momentum of the game (by foot where you don''t have to play on), has cost us dearly and seen us move away from what we were doing more of and more of successfully in the games we were dominating.

Controlling the ball in those matches for extended periods (without turning it over as often) allowed us to halt some of the opp's run ons and maintain and then go on to build on our lead once we caught our breath and reset for the next flurry of attacking break neck play.

Obviously pressure from the opponent playing a large part here but possibly the speed (or lack thereof) of many of our potential receivers and their inability to get away from their more speedy opponents (in some cases) also may have played a part.

So here's a brief summary of the season so far, broken down into positions so it's a little more relevant.  I have not included players who have only played one match so far like Stretch, Maynard & Petty.   Note the positions are determined by AFL StatsPro and i don't have time to adjust into more relevant positions in most cases.  The two obvious exceptions (for me anyway) were T-Mac where i moved him from a Key Defender to a Key Forward and Spargo from a Mid Fielder to a Forward....

It's the easy kicks that we turn over that kills our momentum that hurts us, when players are out on their own and we somehow either turn it over or make it a one on one, Jones, Harmes, ANB are our worst momentum killers.  Those midfielders look to be what separates us from the best, I'm surprised at Petracca and Brayshaw KE%

How do our mids compare to the top 4 mids, Syd, Rich, WCE, Coll etc?

Edited July 3, 2018 by SFebey

[Skuit 10,031]

3 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Presumably our inside 50 count against is much lower than 2017 too, @Skuit?

I have no idea of the absolute figures titan, but if we're getting scored on at above 47% per inside-50 in 2018, and have conceded ten less goals this year, then it's safe to presume so. We're also second-last (or second-best) for inside-50s against to this stage of the season, whereas for 2017 we finished in 8th for the least i50s conceded. Just a reminder that while our back six looks horrible when it's scored on, we've moved almost the entire defensive battle up the ground. 

[Deemania since 56 6,763]

4 hours ago, Skuit said:

I have no idea of the absolute figures titan, but if we're getting scored on at above 47% per inside-50 in 2018, and have conceded ten less goals this year, then it's safe to presume so. We're also second-last (or second-best) for inside-50s against to this stage of the season, whereas for 2017 we finished in 8th for the least i50s conceded. Just a reminder that while our back six looks horrible when it's scored on, we've moved almost the entire defensive battle up the ground. 

Time to take the defensive battle back to Defence.

Two-way running midfielders can respond in space as a consequence. Forwards can respond in anticipation to space as an enormous asset to the game we play.

We literally have almost acres of space in which to play the ball over varying distances - but currently prefer to play in a choked manner against a crowd of opponents. Richmond don't. We interpret 'contested ball' as all important, weaving like dodg'em cars between pillars. With this cramped style of play, we create space for our opponents to exploit our control and limitation of their avenues for positive ball movement and possession. 

When we run hot - less frequently under this pressure that we create for ourselves - we are left in a position where our available space is stolen from opponents and hence, we are at some liberty to work methodically for possession, ball progress and profitable scoring opportunities - and many of these opportunities, at that. 

[titan_uranus 25,174]

14 hours ago, Skuit said:

I have no idea of the absolute figures titan, but if we're getting scored on at above 47% per inside-50 in 2018, and have conceded ten less goals this year, then it's safe to presume so. We're also second-last (or second-best) for inside-50s against to this stage of the season, whereas for 2017 we finished in 8th for the least i50s conceded. Just a reminder that while our back six looks horrible when it's scored on, we've moved almost the entire defensive battle up the ground. 

No doubt about that.

The stats are doing a good job of showing the pros and cons of the style Goodwin has us playing - when we are on, we score heavily and the ball hardly goes into our opponent's forward 50. But when we're off, teams use the space we deliberately leave out the back to their advantage and find it too easy to score when they do get it inside their 50.

When we think about how to improve our defence overall, the debate has to be much broader than simply looking at the back six.

[Demon Dynasty 17,130]

Season 2018 - Latest overall comparative weighted average stats

Includes all players who have played so far as well and last night's heartbreaker.  After next week i will do a stats form guide update for each player showing how each has faired since round 14 and their comparative ranking movements from then till now.

Note that Maxy's ranking is skewed too low as i am unable to account for the 'hit outs to advantage' stat.  Add about 0.75 for that (no science involved!) and you have a rough indicator of where he is at (3rd or thereabouts).....

* Denotes player has only played 2 games or less and would generally not be included for comparative purposes.  Just throwing them in for anyone that's interested.

Edited July 22, 2018 by Rusty Nails

[dimmy 1,308]

Well done with that analysis of stats Rusty Nails.

Interesting that in another topic Nathan Jones is being "downgraded"but in a statistical sense still stands up very well , as does Jordan Lewis.

Also worth noting that our first year "star" Sparky  Fritsch is ranked 9th. Pretty good effort !!!!

[Demon Dynasty 17,130]

3 hours ago, dimmy said:

Well done with that analysis of stats Rusty Nails.

Interesting that in another topic Nathan Jones is being "downgraded"but in a statistical sense still stands up very well , as does Jordan Lewis.

Also worth noting that our first year "star" Sparky  Fritsch is ranked 9th. Pretty good effort !!!!

Thanks Dimmy.

Jonesy had a pretty ordinary month or so as we all know.  At least prior to last night.  And especially his game last week.  Probably why he's come under scrutiny.  He has dropped a little from earlier in the year as a result.  The above system had Jones ranked 4 after Rnd 14 and Gus was 6th.  Gus has effectively surpassed Jonesy as the season's unfolded.

Lewis is having a great year statistically and doing some great work with ball in hand (mostly....still the odd horrible clanger / decision or two every match however) but it's what's happening to him defensively when the opp has the pill that is pretty worrying.  Has real trouble closing any opponent down with a whisker of leg speed as we know.  Occasionally gives professional holding the man frees away during a match to counter this issue.  He knows he is toast if his opponent gets past him as we witnessed in the closing seconds last night.  Hibberd out (and also Hunt when in form) was a huge loss for us here last night.  Lever goes without saying also.

And yes, young Fritschkreig is having a stunning first season eh.  He has effectively gone past Hogan, Harmes (just), Tracc and ANB in year 1!

Edited July 22, 2018 by Rusty Nails

[SFebes 4,884]

Have spent a lot of time going over our stats this week, Goodwin and King are right, we are so close it's not funny. Wins v Cats x 2, Port and STK and you know where we'd be sitting. Defence is an issue with Lever out and now Hibberd, but if we can find a way to just get it happening we can win it this year, you don't get much better opportunities.

OK, I'll stop making you feel miserable @Demonland here are some positive stats for you, exciting times ahead, just need it to "click"

 

Ranked 3rd in Handballs Per Game

Ranked 2nd in Disposals Per Game

Ranked 1st in Points Per Game

Ranked 3rd in Tackles Per Game

Ranked 1st in Hitouts Per Game

Ranked 1st in Inside 50s Per Game

Ranked 1st in Goal Assists Per Game

Ranked 3rd in Clearances Per Game

Ranked 3rd in Clangers Per Game

Ranked 1st in least Opponent Kicks Per Game

Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Marks Per Game

Ranked 4th in least Opponent Hitouts Per Game

Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Inside 50s Per Game

Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Handballs Per Game Diff.

Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff.

Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff.

Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Diff.

Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Hitouts Per Game Diff.

Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Inside 50s Per Game Diff.

Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Goal Assists Per Game Diff.

Ranked 4th in Team to Opponent Clearances Per Game Diff.

Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Clangers Per Game Diff.

Edited August 4, 2018 by MSFebey

[SFebes 4,884]

The negaitives:

 Ranked 15th in Marks Per Game

  Ranked 17th in Rebound 50s Per Game

  Ranked 14th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game

  Ranked 18th in least Opponent Tackles Per Game

  Ranked 14th in least Opponent Clearances Per Game

  Ranked 17th in least Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game

  Ranked 14th in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Diff.

  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game Diff.

[praha 11,253]

19 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

The negaitives:

 Ranked 15th in Marks Per Game

  Ranked 17th in Rebound 50s Per Game

  Ranked 14th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game

  Ranked 18th in least Opponent Tackles Per Game

  Ranked 14th in least Opponent Clearances Per Game

  Ranked 17th in least Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game

  Ranked 14th in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Diff.

  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game Diff.

I think there is a reason behind these stats.

• Fewer marks because we play more direct and have easy access going forward.
• Fewer rebounds 50s because our opponents go forward fewer times.
• Opponents handball more because we play a more contested game with more stoppages.
• Opponents tackle us more because we have more of the ball.
• More opponent clearances because there are more stoppages and more goals, leading to more opportunity. 
• More rebound 50s against because we go forward so often.

I would classify most of these as a symptom of the stats we lead in, rather than a counter to.

Edited August 4, 2018 by praha

[deanox 10,045]

1 hour ago, MSFebey said:

Have spent a lot of time going over our stats this week, Goodwin and King are right, we are so close it's not funny. Wins v Cats x 2, Port and STK and you know where we'd be sitting. Defence is an issue with Lever out and now Hibberd, but if we can find a way to just get it happening we can win it this year, you don't get much better opportunities.

OK, I'll stop making you feel miserable @Demonland here are some positive stats for you, exciting times ahead, just need it to "click"

 

Ranked 3rd in Handballs Per Game

Ranked 2nd in Disposals Per Game

Ranked 1st in Points Per Game

Ranked 3rd in Tackles Per Game

Ranked 1st in Hitouts Per Game

Ranked 1st in Inside 50s Per Game

Ranked 1st in Goal Assists Per Game

Ranked 3rd in Clearances Per Game

Ranked 3rd in Clangers Per Game

Ranked 1st in least Opponent Kicks Per Game

Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Marks Per Game

Ranked 4th in least Opponent Hitouts Per Game

Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Inside 50s Per Game

Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Handballs Per Game Diff.

Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff.

Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff.

Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Diff.

Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Hitouts Per Game Diff.

Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Inside 50s Per Game Diff.

Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Goal Assists Per Game Diff.

Ranked 4th in Team to Opponent Clearances Per Game Diff.

Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Clangers Per Game Diff.

 

57 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

The negaitives:

 Ranked 15th in Marks Per Game not a major issue given we have the 2nd least opponent marks against. Also we have a passive for/against marks ratio (the 5th best in the comp) so even though we don't take many,  we take more than our opponents 

  Ranked 17th in Rebound 50s Per Game not an issue given we have the 2nd least opponent i50s against: there arent many to rebound

  Ranked 14th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game not an issue given we rank first for opponent kicks against. This indicates our opponents have a high handball to kick ratio,  which is usually not agood thing.  It would be interesting to see where we're sit on that measure (k/h ratio for and against) 

  Ranked 18th in least Opponent Tackles Per Game may not be an issue given we have the 2nd highest disposal, indicating we dominate possession so of course we get tackled.

  Ranked 14th in least Opponent Clearances Per Game not an issue given we are 3rd in total clearances and 4th in team vs opponent ratio.  This just means there are more total clearances (assuming also more stoppages) in MFC games than average. 

  Ranked 17th in least Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game not an issue given we have the most i50 in the comp game also are the highest scoring team in the comp. 

  Ranked 14th in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Diff. not an issue if we are dominating possession: you only tackle if you don't have the ball. More interesting would be tackle per minute in possession ratio. 

  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game Diff. not an issue as per i50 for and againsts stats. 

 

Basically all the negative stats are readily explained by the positive stats and mean nothing. 

What would be interesting is the differences in these types of stats from 2 batches of games.

Batch 1: Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn.

Batch 2: Everything else.

What stats change from our averages in the only three games we lost by more than 10 points?

Edited August 4, 2018 by deanox
Missed the handball stat

[Skuit 10,031]

3 hours ago, deanox said:

 

 

Basically all the negative stats are readily explained by the positive stats and mean nothing. 

What would be interesting is the differences in these types of stats from 2 batches of games.

Batch 1: Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn.

Batch 2: Everything else.

What stats change from our averages in the only three games we lost by more than 10 points?

I still see the tackles against as an issue. We've been the most tackled team for the past two years but we brought these numbers down a bit earlier in the year. Now we're back on top.

Is there a link between the tackle against stats and our parallel post-bye form drop offs and injury counts from this year and last? The team seems fit enough. But across an AFL season, getting slammed into the ground and jumped on more often is going to add up on the body.

[rpfc 28,906]

5 hours ago, MSFebey said:

The negaitives:

 Ranked 15th in Marks Per Game

  Ranked 17th in Rebound 50s Per Game

  Ranked 14th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game

  Ranked 18th in least Opponent Tackles Per Game

  Ranked 14th in least Opponent Clearances Per Game

  Ranked 17th in least Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game

  Ranked 14th in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Diff.

  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game Diff.

What the others said.

Also, you misspelled ‘negative’...

[SFebes 4,884]

2 minutes ago, rpfc said:

What the others said.

Also, you misspelled ‘negative’...

The stats were off footywire, for and against. Doesn’t mean I think they’re negative, just that they’re the opposite. It’s not my opinion. Damn, I was going to treat myself with a beer too

[wonnabeeri 277]

132.8% is our best ever percentage after rd 19.

[What 18,810]

We have 14 players that have kicked 10+ goals this season.

Thats the most since at least 1965.....   the Footywire.com stats only went back that far.

[Engorged Onion 10,224]

On 8/7/2018 at 11:48 AM, wonnabeeri said:

132.8% is our best ever percentage after rd 19.

im not even wanting to comment on your quote - just acknowledge your 'handle' - hilarious!

[layzie 34,336]

What a joke.