List Analysis Potential v Reality

[Its Time for Another 4,306]

For what it's worth SEN posted this today on our A Graders and who is borderline. You could say they fit into our Potential Categories. https://www.sen.com.au/news/2017/11/09/how-many-a-graders-does-your-club-have/

A-Graders: Jack Viney, Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Michael Hibberd

Borderline: Jake Lever, Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca

After having just one star for so many years in Nathan Jones, who narrowly misses this list, the Demons are now overflowing with talent. Viney and Oliver are midfield bulls, Gawn is one of the league’s premier ruckman, while Hibberd is the quintessential modern day defender. The trio of Lever, Hogan and Petracca are on their way, if they can maintain their best for prolonged periods.

[ManDee 7,347]

2 hours ago, It's Time said:

Must be following Clarry as his mentor. He started the same way last pre season and ended up going all right. They need a congo line of Billy followed by Clarry and now followed by Harley (Wonder what his nickname will be. Any suggestions.)

Pencil

[DeeSpencer 26,495]

On 05/11/2017 at 8:49 AM, Skuit said:

Problem is not consistency. It's role and fit. Pedo isn't a natural KPF and not a starting ruck. But he plays his best footy when he's primarily involved and moving toward goals. Yet he's not a wing and not quite a roving CFH either. He is a very good utility.

Get him fit at the start of the season and playing all the practice games  - compared to his usual month at Casey getting match fit - and I think he has to be considered to play as a key defender. 

[Skuit 10,031]

9 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Get him fit at the start of the season and playing all the practice games  - compared to his usual month at Casey getting match fit - and I think he has to be considered to play as a key defender. 

I thought he was pretty good when he was back there originally (particularly in regards to contested marking) - except painfully slow to move it on. It was different times, but it's kind of the opposite of what Goody is looking for. I personally think we need to look at the strengths and make-up of our key forwards (inc. the medium-talls) and work a forward game-plan to fit the personnel.

[jnrmac 20,307]

On 11/9/2017 at 2:40 PM, It's Time said:

For what it's worth SEN posted this today on our A Graders and who is borderline. You could say they fit into our Potential Categories. https://www.sen.com.au/news/2017/11/09/how-many-a-graders-does-your-club-have/

A-Graders: Jack Viney, Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Michael Hibberd

Borderline: Jake Lever, Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca

After having just one star for so many years in Nathan Jones, who narrowly misses this list, the Demons are now overflowing with talent. Viney and Oliver are midfield bulls, Gawn is one of the league’s premier ruckman, while Hibberd is the quintessential modern day defender. The trio of Lever, Hogan and Petracca are on their way, if they can maintain their best for prolonged periods.

Nah we're not. We always overate our list. We barely have 2 players in most independent top 50 lists...

[D4Life 2,579]

5 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Nah we're not. We always overate our list. We barely have 2 players in most independent top 50 lists...

See where we stand at the end of 2018. Another pre season and 20 more games into Oliver, Hogan, Petracca and Lever, plus injury free seasons for Max and Jack, the Demons will have their fair share of A graders!

[Its Time for Another 4,306]

9 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Nah we're not. We always overate our list. We barely have 2 players in most independent top 50 lists...

Quote is from SEN not one of us. In any event the point of this OP IS Potential v Reality. 

[BAMF 4,465]

14 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Nah we're not. We always overate our list. We barely have 2 players in most independent top 50 lists...

Should read. The Demons are overflowing with potential talent.

We all know that it doesnt always pan out that way

 

[Deemania since 56 6,773]

Pedo is one of our best and certainly, most reliable, when needed. He lifts, and lifts, and lifts.

The Weed worries me. With a great heritage and all the physical attributes (other than those for which he must be working out in the gym every day) to further his skills set and endeavour. It is as if he cannot read the play and if he does, he does nothing about it. The great Ox and even Lyon should be taking him aside after team training and working on him - teaching him - motivating him - and supervising his pre-season very closely, as two individual coaches working together from their experience(s)  to bring this possibly great young player to some modicum of importance to our side with a role and a potential to excel. What'cha reckon, guys?

 

 

[Its Time for Another 4,306]

2 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Pedo is one of our best and certainly, most reliable, when needed. He lifts, and lifts, and lifts.

The Weed worries me. With a great heritage and all the physical attributes (other than those for which he must be working out in the gym every day) to further his skills set and endeavour. It is as if he cannot read the play and if he does, he does nothing about it. The great Ox and even Lyon should be taking him aside after team training and working on him - teaching him - motivating him - and supervising his pre-season very closely, as two individual coaches working together from their experience(s)  to bring this possibly great young player to some modicum of importance to our side with a role and a potential to excel. What'cha reckon, guys?

 

 

Agree with you. For some reason he seemed to go backwards this year compared to his very confident debut last year when he read the play particularly well and took some great contested marks. 

I suspect this year was more about learning the whole forward system with all 6 forwards and his role within that system and that may have set him backwards a bit this year. I agree he didn't seem to be reading the play as well and getting involved. I really hope I'm right and we see a transformed player in 2018. He's very important to the future structure of the team. He's still very young in key forward terms so still has time on his side.

[Its Time for Another 4,306]

On 11/3/2017 at 2:08 PM, It's Time said:

I like many on here and in the press are expecting the Dees to substantially improve and at least make finals next year. The improvement other than Lever's inclusion is expected to come from assumptions that many of our players who haven't reached their potential yet will do so next year. For instance Jon Ralph wrote this week the Dees will win the flag if Petracca kicks 40 goals. So I thought I'd go through the list and break it down into players who have reached their potential and those who haven't reached their potential yet but we hope are going to next season. I've also loosely broken them down into positions but that is very fluid. It's also a useful exercise in working out list weaknesses for drafting. 

Will be interested to read people's opinions. I have included Oliver in players who have reached their potential because he's already playing at an outstanding level even though he clearly has a lot more improvement to go. So arguably he could go in either. Whereas I have put Tyson in the not reached potential yet because I think there's such a knock on his disposal that if he doesn't improve it he could well be moved on in the next couple of seasons. So arguably hasn't reached his full potential.

We are all hoping and expecting future stars like Hogan, Petracca, Brayshaw, Hunt & Salem go to the next level next year and be consistent high level performers to push us deep into finals. But the fact is "hoping" is the big question. None of them are there yet and whether some or all of them do or don't will decide the future success of the team. 

Players who are top 22 and have reached their potential

 

Thought I'd revisit this thread a year on and as we prepare for the draft. Interesting to see how it stacked up. I won't go through everyone. Only those I think have moved categories.

Garlett has obviously dropped off the planet. Lets hope the FD can get him firing again. He did this at Carlton which was why they gave him away and we were able to get 3 good years out of him. I believe he has some issues going on at home. Hopefully they get sorted or he'll be gone by the end of next season.

Hunt also dropped off very badly. I'm hopeful but not confident he can fix his deficiencies and get back into form. 

Lewis has exceeded my expectations this year notwithstanding his shocker in the Prelim. Thought he would slow down too much and only play limited games. We'll get something decent out of him next season so has been a real success coming to the team. The value of his experience and leadership seems to have increased as the team gets better and has got closer to playing the type of football he's used to.

Lever will be a question mark now as we don't know how his recovery will go. ACL's often lead to other soft tissue injuries as players return from the long layoff. 

The only players in the 22 yet to reach their potential that really stepped up to the next level this season were Brayshaw, Salem, & Harmes

Petracca is still in the same category of not reaching their potential. Hopefully he comes back slimmed down and fitter from the break. He needs to if he wants to go to the next step. I hoped to see this last season and it didn't happen. Has to get away from Mum's delicious home made Italian cooking. 

O Mac improved but there better be a lot more to come or he will get passed over. Recruiting May is a clear indication the FD don't think he's either ready yet or ever will be. 

Players not in 22 who have improved into it are clearly Weid & vanders.

Frost was only in because of injuries. There's a real argument he's a better option than O Mac. He has brute strength, speed and agility that O Mac doesn't. His decision making and disposals have improved considerably although unfortunately still prone to bad judgement lapses in decisions and particularly marking which was lethal in the Prelim. 

J Smith showed a bit but still hasn't had a consistent enough run at it to show his full capability. Hopefully that happens one way or another next season. 

Fritsch and Spargo have been revelations and are clearly best 22 at this point unless Jeffy comes good and puts pressure on Spargs. 

T Smith has become critical for Key forward depth if either Weid or T Mac go down. There's no one else now. I expect him to be upgraded on at least a one year contract given how many spots we have to fill on the main list and how few decent picks we have. 

Oscar Baker still looks very raw from what I've seen of him at Casey. Good pace but terrible disposal skills. Not sure he'll make it. 

Petty looks a few years away. His selection in the Saints game very nearly cost us a finals birth. 

Future Ins

May is at a stage where we can be confident he will deliver at the level he has been at GC and hopefully in a better set up will be even better. Solves a major structural weakness. Arguably the last structural weakness.

KK is a gamble based on actual performance over the past few seasons but has shown before that he has the goods and is apparently well over the concusion/neck issues. It's a bit of a worry that a team in the shape GC were in asked him to look elsewhere. There must be more of an issue there than we probably know about. I feel confident he'll come good and will be that skilled outside runner we desperately need to run and carry and more importantly accurately deliver inside 50 or go to half back and release Fritsch into that role which he's shown himself to be very good at. 

Preuss will be interesting to see how he's used. I suspect we'll see a lot more of him in tandem with Gawny than has been suggested otherwise his decision to come to us makes no sense at all. I don't buy just coming to MFC to learn under the best. Goldy was the best ruckman in the comp for quite a few years. 

What do we need most. 

A speedy X factor highly skilled forward pocket. What Jeffy used to be. Bedford sounds like this is what he brings. So a tick there and hopefully no earlier than pick 62. That would be a major win. 

Still looking for that skilled outside runner who can deliver into the forward line. Would be good to pick one up although we might already have them between KK, Fritsch, Hunt and maybe even Salem. I'd love to see his incredible kicking skills being used for that final kick into 50. 

Over to you all. 

[poita 3,924]

Our best 22 is strong enough to make us a premiership contender if everyone is fit and firing. We desperately need the charmed run with injuries that Richmond have had over the past two years, although it is clear that their better players are far more durable than our equivalents.

Our depth in the midfield and in the key forward posts is basically non-existent. The thought of having to call on the likes of Maynard, Kennedy-Harris, Wagner or Tim Smith in a big game terrifies me. Hopefully we can find a few players in the draft who can step in and play a role next year, as Spargo and Fritsch did this year. Drafting a couple of longer term project players is fine, but no more than that.

[Young Blood 2,639]

15 minutes ago, poita said:

Our best 22 is strong enough to make us a premiership contender if everyone is fit and firing. We desperately need the charmed run with injuries that Richmond have had over the past two years, although it is clear that their better players are far more durable than our equivalents.

Our depth in the midfield and in the key forward posts is basically non-existent. The thought of having to call on the likes of Maynard, Kennedy-Harris, Wagner or Tim Smith in a big game terrifies me. Hopefully we can find a few players in the draft who can step in and play a role next year, as Spargo and Fritsch did this year. Drafting a couple of longer term project players is fine, but no more than that.

Your idea non-existent depth at the midfield position seems to go against the trend of everyone believing we are top 3 for midfield depth in the competition. I don't think that's as much to do with who can fill midfield roles from Casey as it is who can fill those roles within our best 22. Ie if one of Oliver, Brayshaw and Viney were to go down with injury you would see the likes of Jones, Petracca, Salem, ANB, Harmes, AVB spend a greater amount of time in the middle.

Those second tier midfielders (who I think are very strong) would slide in to more time in the middle with the likes of Wagner, Fritsch, J.Smith, Stretch and other solid fringe filling in other areas.

I do agree with you about tall forward depth. You have to wonder if Tmac and Weid were to get injured if we would potentially swing another backman forward. I think Lever would be best suited to this. Other more shaky options being Frost and J.Smith but I think a forward line with Tim Smith/Lever and a resting ruckman, while not ideal would be serviceable. With that being said I can see Melbourne trying to play more mid sized forwards next year anyway to try to really push Petracca's effectiveness and continue Melkshams along with Fritsch and Hannan.

Edited October 24, 2018 by Yung Blood

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 11,024]

2 hours ago, Yung Blood said:

Your idea non-existent depth at the midfield position seems to go against the trend of everyone believing we are top 3 for midfield depth in the competition. I don't think that's as much to do with who can fill midfield roles from Casey as it is who can fill those roles within our best 22. Ie if one of Oliver, Brayshaw and Viney were to go down with injury you would see the likes of Jones, Petracca, Salem, ANB, Harmes, AVB spend a greater amount of time in the middle.

Those second tier midfielders (who I think are very strong) would slide in to more time in the middle with the likes of Wagner, Fritsch, J.Smith, Stretch and other solid fringe filling in other areas.

I do agree with you about tall forward depth. You have to wonder if Tmac and Weid were to get injured if we would potentially swing another backman forward. I think Lever would be best suited to this. Other more shaky options being Frost and J.Smith but I think a forward line with Tim Smith/Lever and a resting ruckman, while not ideal would be serviceable. With that being said I can see Melbourne trying to play more mid sized forwards next year anyway to try to really push Petracca's effectiveness and continue Melkshams along with Fritsch and Hannan.

Melksham is another I'd consider as midfield depth.  I think he is most valuable to us at half forward, but did some pretty good mid tagging roles for us in 2017.  I'm personally open to Maynard turning out ok as a defensive tagging type midfeilder.  I don't think Harmes will nessasrily remain our go to lock down tagger for ever, because his offensive wepons are so good and it's only a matter of time before the tagger becomes the tagged, in which instance guys like Maynard could fill the hole.

For foward depth, we also would be hoping that Preuss can step up and be an option, though without seeing how he goes, I'm not sure how realistic that is.  AVB also has some fair size to him and could provide a decient marking option inside 50.

The other key forward depth option we have is May, who can take marks and kick goals.  Obviously our first prefferance would be to play him in defense, but with the realitive depth we have down there, I think we may play May forward if it was called for by the circumstances.

Edited October 24, 2018 by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 11,024]

@It's Time, I know it wasn't your first objective to rank players in this way, but I'd argue that T Mac, Melksham, Hibbard and Jetta should be considered A gradars now.  Particulaly T Mac and Melksham.

[monoccular 17,699]

4 hours ago, Yung Blood said:

Your idea non-existent depth at the midfield position seems to go against the trend of everyone believing we are top 3 for midfield depth in the competition. I don't think that's as much to do with who can fill midfield roles from Casey as it is who can fill those roles within our best 22. Ie if one of Oliver, Brayshaw and Viney were to go down with injury you would see the likes of Jones, Petracca, Salem, ANB, Harmes, AVB spend a greater amount of time in the middle.

Those second tier midfielders (who I think are very strong) would slide in to more time in the middle with the likes of Wagner, Fritsch, J.Smith, Stretch and other solid fringe filling in other areas.

I do agree with you about tall forward depth. You have to wonder if Tmac and Weid were to get injured if we would potentially swing another backman forward. I think Lever would be best suited to this. Other more shaky options being Frost and J.Smith but I think a forward line with Tim Smith/Lever and a resting ruckman, while not ideal would be serviceable. With that being said I can see Melbourne trying to play more mid sized forwards next year anyway to try to really push Petracca's effectiveness and continue Melkshams along with Fritsch and Hannan.

One could add Preuss / Gawn as tall forward depth ..... I suspect that Goodwin and his team will try to work out how to use them as tandem rucks and forward (or defensive) extras.  If it works out it could be very challenging for defence.

Can anyone comment on Preuss’ forward defensive skills and ability / willingness to chase. 

[obbafan 128]

3 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Melksham is another I'd consider as midfield depth.  I think he is most valuable to us at half forward, but did some pretty good mid tagging roles for us in 2017.  I'm personally open to Maynard turning out ok as a defensive tagging type midfeilder.  I don't think Harmes will nessasrily remain our go to lock down tagger for ever, because his offensive wepons are so good and it's only a matter of time before the tagger becomes the tagged, in which instance guys like Maynard could fill the hole.

For foward depth, we also would be hoping that Preuss can step up and be an option, though without seeing how he goes, I'm not sure how realistic that is.  AVB also has some fair size to him and could provide a decient marking option inside 50.

The other key forward depth option we have is May, who can take marks and kick goals.  Obviously our first prefferance would be to play him in defense, but with the realitive depth we have down there, I think we may play May forward if it was called for by the circumstances.

Agree. May was a devastating forward as a junior and could be a very effective stop gap forward if disaster struck. Another reason to celebrate his arrival at the club.