Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever

[BAMF 4,385]

3 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Except Treloar is a garden variety mid.

Look at key position trades I would suggest.

At the time of my post I did not realise we got pick 35 back. We traded less than Collingwood did for Treloar and in my opinon have won the trade.

Totally disagree with the 'Treloar is a garden variety mid' comment.

[Pates 9,660]

It’s clear the club wanted to get this deal done and wanted to maintain the perception of being a good club to deal with. Personally I think we’ve paid a bit over for him but our defence had some serious issues this year and Jake can help with that. Will be interesting to see where players are shuffled to once he’s in the line up, does this free up TMac to move forward?

Anyway, welcome to the club Jake!

[Demons1858 1,766]

1 hour ago, Rogue said:

I'd happily spend all day on this, but I don't have the time. Will you do the leg work for me? A bigger sample would prove my point nicely! In the meantime, here's this - a list of the pick 10 and 12 selections over the same time period. Of course, it's 'skewed' and there are 'outliers'.

Pick 12 from 2007:

Year         Drafting club Name          Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes
2007         Hawthorn     Cyril Rioli     185     273     44 //All-Australian x5
2008         Sydney     Lewis Johnston     10 (2)     16     2     - career over after four seasons at two clubs
2009         Carlton     Kane Lucas     42     15     1     - career over after seven seasons at two clubs
2010         Melbourne     Lucas Cook     0     0     0     - career over after two seasons
2011         Brisbane     Sam Docherty     92 (13)     14     6 //All-Australian x1
2012         GWS     Kristian Jaksch     14 (7)     3     0   - moved on from second club
2013         Richmond     Ben Lennon     21     10     0     - two games in 2017 (not in premiership team)
2014         Richmond     Corey Ellis     23     7     1     - six games in 2017 (not in premiership team)
2015         Carlton     Charlie Curnow     27     25     0     - 21 games in 2017
2016         North Melbourne     Jy Simpkin     13     9     0 - 13 games in 2017

Pick 10 from 2007:

Year         Drafting club Name          Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes
2007         Adelaide     Patrick Dangerfield     202 (154)     232     165 //All-Australian x5
2008         Adelaide     Phil Davis     121 (18)     6     1     
2009         Essendon     Jake Melksham     133 (114)     78     3     - traded for pick 25
2010         Gold Coast     Daniel Gorringe     26 (22)     11     0     - career over after seven seasons at two clubs
2011         GWS     Liam Sumner     32 (12)     19     0     - career over after six seasons at two clubs
2012         Essendon     Joe Daniher     93     173     19 - father-son pick - Nick Vlastuin was at pick 10; Troy Menzel at pick 11 //All-Australian x1
2013         Collingwood     Nathan Freeman     0     0     0     - yet to make debut
2014         Geelong     Nakia Cockatoo     32     25     0     - 11 games in 2017
2015         Carlton     Harry McKay     2     3     0     - 2 games in 2017
2016         Gold Coast     Jack Bowes     11     2     0    - 11 games in 2017

How many pairs of a pick 10 and 12 would you take instead of Lever? It looks like half of them won't even be AFL players when they should be hitting their physical peak.

The more I look into it, the more confident I am about my statement that draft picks are overrated.

Hey rogue, l think you shot yourself in the foot. There are some guns or young up and coming guns on that pick 10 list and to a lesser degree pick 12. Again, work on the sample, exclude the 2016 kids that can go either way. Its clear we are likely to miss out on a gun (on average) with two top draft picks. Lever better be elite, good thing is l think he is

[Diamond_Jim 12,624]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

My only concern is that with no 1st rounders from 2016-18 we may end up with a hole in our list from an age perspective 7 or 8 years down the track (similar to our poor drafting in the early 2000's).

 

That is my concern as well.

Next years first rounder could be used to trade for another player or go into the draft. Now we will have to rely upon picking up an unrestricted free agent (hard with salary cap restraints), trade a decent player (we don;t exactly have a surplus) or do nothing.

Of course the pessimist in me says we will have a few first rounders next year when our full forward heads home !

[praha 11,240]

3 hours ago, Roost It said:

Explain to all of us how getting Lever is an immense risk

What we traded to get him is.

[Demons1858 1,766]

2 hours ago, ProDee said:

I'm one who likes the deal, but also likes draft picks, as I recognise the value if you get them right.

I just think the timing was right for this deal.  We've stockpiled elite talent over the last 4-5 years and now is the time to back the list for a genuine assault up the ladder.

 

Pro dee, no one said we want to keep the top picks we just want to get more in return for current and future 1st rounders in trades. Agree to not stockpiling

[tallstuey 35]

At last!!! REVENGE. Those squawking crows have finally got their dues,

A deep and angry voice inside has needed to abuse,

The buggers took our Scotty Thompson in his very prime,

We've had to watch him carve up teams and rip them down the spine.

 

And so I hope they watch young Jake mature to a gun,

Co's every intercepting mark will stick it up their bum,

I hope they play him on that Tex with his Village People moe,

Cos I for one will thoroughly enjoy the sound of suffering crow!!!! 

 

[Its Time for Another 4,282]

23 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

That is my concern as well.

Next years first rounder could be used to trade for another player or go into the draft. Now we will have to rely upon picking up an unrestricted free agent (hard with salary cap restraints), trade a decent player (we don;t exactly have a surplus) or do nothing.

Of course the pessimist in me says we will have a few first rounders next year when our full forward heads home !

Plus Tom Lynch for nothing as an FA

[Dee tention 617]

We really needed to keep our 2018 First Pick. We made a blew there...

I thought it was quite achievable to get them two first rounders rhis year. Namely 15 & 16 from the Tiggers.

Anyway, its all done now.

VERY HAPPY TO HAVE SNAKE ON BOARD.

 

[Macca 17,032]

8 hours ago, WAGSLEFTFOOT said:

Done deal: Lever joins Demons

 

Adelaide will receive two first-round draft picks in exchange for defender Jake Lever after a trade deal was struck with Melbourne on Thursday morning at Etihad Stadium.

The Crows will get pick No.10, a future first-round selection and a future fourth-round selection from the Demons and send Lever, pick No.35 and a future third-round selection to Melbourne. 

So it's pick 10,  pick 14 next year (assuming we play finals next season and win at least 1 final) and a 4th round pick next year (a negligible pick) to Adelaide.

And it's a 10 year top quality CHB (Lever) for us along with pick 35 this year and a 3rd round pick next year.

I call that a major win and way unders. 

But there again,  I value a draft pick in real terms as only about half it's value.  I also reckon that the real recruiting happens after the 1st round of picks.  We might end up being well placed to unearthing those diamonds in the rough.

Most first round picks are predicted because of the stellar form of those first round picks in junior footy but ... it's an absolute fact that close to half of all 1st round draft picks are busts.  And we've had way more than our fair share of those busts. 

A great move by the club and I fully endorse the move.  Kudos. 

[Gator 17,446]

33 minutes ago, Demons1858 said:

Pro dee, no one said we want to keep the top picks we just want to get more in return for current and future 1st rounders in trades. Agree to not stockpiling

I understand that.  I've been arguing with my furious Brother all afternoon. 

The MFC thought the deal fair and obviously want to retain a good reputation. 

By crunching the numbers in this deal Lever is valued at pick 4.  He's top 3 in the 2014 draft now. 

If you want to get the best young defender in the league out from a rival club you have to pay a fair ransom.

This club was addicted to draft picks for years.  Let's be happy we've got our best trade in 20 years and we're one of the top couple of young lists in the competition. 

[Demons1858 1,766]

4 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I understand that.  I've been arguing with my furious Brother all afternoon. 

The MFC thought the deal fair and obviously want to retain a good reputation. 

By crunching the numbers in this deal Lever is valued at pick 4.  He's top 3 in the 2014 draft now. 

If you want to get the best young defender in the league out from a rival club you have to pay a fair ransom.

This club was addicted to draft picks for years.  Let's be happy we've got our best trade in 20 years and we're one of the top couple of young lists in the competition. 

Pro dee, he was out of their club already as you put it. The trade was just a negtiation of what they would get. He is uncontracted and headed for the draft with a price on his head and adel would have softened by next week as they all do in the end. Well done to mfc for attracting him however

Edited October 12, 2017 by Demons1858

[Demons1858 1,766]

22 minutes ago, Macca said:

So it's pick 10,  pick 14 next year (assuming we play finals next season and win at least 1 final) and a 4th round pick next year (a negligible pick) to Adelaide.

And it's a 10 year top quality CHB (Lever) for us along with pick 35 this year and a 3rd round pick next year.

I call that a major win and way unders. 

But there again,  I value a draft pick in real terms as only about half it's value.  I also reckon that the real recruiting happens after the 1st round of picks.  We might end up being well placed to unearthing those diamonds in the rough.

Most first round picks are predicted because of the stellar form of those first round picks in junior footy but ... it's an absolute fact that close to half of all 1st round draft picks are busts.  And we've had way more than our fair share of those busts. 

A great move by the club and I fully endorse the move.  Kudos. 

Last time l checked he was on a 4 year contract not 10

[Macca 17,032]

Just now, Demons1858 said:

Last time l checked he was on a 4 year contract not 10

So you reckon he'll be gone after 4 years? 

Or perhaps after he proves his worth we'll just keep extending his contract?

[Jibroni 5,008]

8 minutes ago, ProDee said:

  Let's be happy we've got our best trade in 20 years and we're one of the top couple of young lists in the competition. 

Better than the Phil Gilbert for Jeff Farmer trade PD?

[Gator 17,446]

6 minutes ago, Demons1858 said:

Pro dee, he was out of their club already as you put it. The trade was just a negtiation of what they would get. He is uncontracted and headed for the draft with a price on his head and adel would have softened by next week as they all do in the end. Well done to mfc for attracting him however

You're saying exactly what my lunatic Brother has been saying all day.

I'll say to you what I said to him.

I don't care.  You be annoyed and I'll be happy.  It's not an argument I have any interest in continuing.

[daisycutter 29,695]

7 hours ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

I don’t mind the deal. Effectively 10,12 and a fourth rounder 

 for lever ( a proven nearly all Australian standard defender at 21) pick 35 and probably around 50.

Given all draft picks carry risk I don’t think it’s correct to assume they’ll be a star. I think this is very much a win-win deal

it's better than that - recheck details

[Dee tention 617]

So Snake Lever will aquire the no. 8 jumper I would imagine...

Having a locker next too Viney would be 'delicious' as Bruce would say...

[Demons1858 1,766]

7 minutes ago, ProDee said:

You're saying exactly what my lunatic Brother has been saying all day.

I'll say to you what I said to him.

I don't care.  You be annoyed and I'll be happy.  It's not an argument I have any interest in continuing.

Wow ... that was mature ... your wish is granted however

[Demons1858 1,766]

11 minutes ago, Macca said:

So you reckon he'll be gone after 4 years? 

Or perhaps after he proves his worth we'll just keep extending his contract?

I have no idea if he will go and nor do you or anyone else so its misleading. 4 years will make him a free agent or very close to free agency so you never know

Having said that l hope he lives up to the hype. He is an excellent prospect and I think there is a good chance he will be elite and he will need to be

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Demons1858 said:

I have no idea if he will go and nor do you or anyone else so its misleading. 4 years will make him a free agent or very close to free agency so you never know

Having said that l hope he lives up to the hype. He is an excellent prospect and I think there is a good chance he will be elite and he will need to be

No

[Macca 17,032]

1 hour ago, Demons1858 said:

I have no idea if he will go and nor do you or anyone else so its misleading. 4 years will make him a free agent or very close to free agency so you never know

Having said that l hope he lives up to the hype. He is an excellent prospect and I think there is a good chance he will be elite and he will need to be

What are you talking about?

When he plays well for us we will keep extending his contract.  So me speculating that he'll play 10 years for us is hardly a stab in the dark.

If you reckon we've lost out on the deal write an email to the club outlining what you believe we should have done. 

 

Edited October 12, 2017 by Macca

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Demons1858 said:

I have no idea if he will go and nor do you or anyone else so its misleading. 4 years will make him a free agent or very close to free agency so you never know

Having said that l hope he lives up to the hype. He is an excellent prospect and I think there is a good chance he will be elite and he will need to be

RFA is 8 years at club

FA is 10 years at club

[Demons1858 1,766]

9 minutes ago, Macca said:

If you reckon we've lost out on the deal write an email to the club outlining what you believe we should have done.  Put your money where your mouth is.

 

What a silly paragraph, shows you have run out of facts to argue. He may not want to extend his contract we don't know

[Macca 17,032]

Just now, Demons1858 said:

What a silly paragraph, shows you have run out of facts to argue. He may not want to extend his contract we don't know

So let's get this straight ...

You're unsure whether he'll play 10 years for us whilst I reckon he almost certainly will. 

Our discussion is therefore over.