A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah im all for mixing it up. There doesnt have to be one answer. After all you sometimes look at a race and see something and change your format accordingly. Happy to look at a particular race and decide on a betting strategy. Also perhaps BM can retain 2 picks at trying to find a winner and we can all go for filling the places. (since we seem to be so good at that!)

 

I reckon we leave the order as it is for now and BM gets 2 picks ... you've got to go with the form punter.  We can of course change things around whenever we see fit.   Next week we've got 3 Group 1's to choose from including the time-honoured Stradbroke Hcp. 

Here's the all-in odds for the Queensland Derby & the JJ Atkins Stakes

And here are the Stradbroke all-in odds ... it's a decent field Wadda.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

8 minutes ago, Macca said:

I reckon we leave the order as it is for now and BM gets 2 picks ... you've got to go with the form punter.  We can of course change things around whenever we see fit.   Next week we've got 3 Group 1's to choose from including the time-honoured Stradbroke Hcp. 

Here's the all-in odds for the Queensland Derby & the JJ Atkins Stakes

And here are the Stradbroke all-in odds ... it's a decent field Wadda.

Wow that is a decent field isnt it. I straight away pick out Impending, Osborne Bulls and Voodoo lad of course. All my Black Bookers.

Hey ...ive just had a look at the odds for the Coleman. Jesse is 13/1 on Ladbrokes. Surely thats overs.

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Wow that is a decent field isnt it. I straight away pick out Impending, Osborne Bulls and Voodoo lad of course. All my Black Bookers.

Hey ...ive just had a look at the odds for the Coleman. Jesse is 13/1 on Ladbrokes. Surely thats overs.

That is overs ... he's sure to get a few big bags against the lesser lights as well as getting his consistent 2, 3 or 4 goals anyway.

And I like Champagne Cuddles as well as 'Care to Think' to be running on in the Stradbroke although there are any number of lightweight chances.  Impending is the one though even with the 57.5 kgs.  It is a Group 1 horse.

[binman 38,019]

Great field in the Stradbrolke. One of my favourite races and my mate and make an off seaspn exception for this race most years.

Post dees match i backed material Man and took Max Almighty for a place in the preceding race at Belmont (i love vibe bet and Maxy had just played another pearler).

I think changing trifecta strategies to suit the race is smart and boxing 5 not a bad idea as a rule. With trifectas i often like standing out a winner one out (often, but not always, the fav) and having two or three (or more) to come second and third. If the winner is not super short can sometimes be vale (and even if short can get value if a longshot fills a place)

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

9 minutes ago, binman said:

Great field in the Stradbrolke. One of my favourite races and my mate and make an off seaspn exception for this race most years.

Post dees match i backed material Man and took Max Almighty for a place in the preceding race at Belmont (i love vibe bet and Maxy had just played another pearler).

I think changing trifecta strategies to suit the race is smart and boxing 5 not a bad idea as a rule. With trifectas i often like standing out a winner one out (often, but not always, the fav) and having two or three (or more) to come second and third. If the winner is not super short can sometimes be vale (and even if short can get value if a longshot fills a place)

Yes BM, i dont mind picking a one out winner either now and then, especially if you can get some odds at carnival time. We picked a 17/1 shot a few years back in a FF one out. It payed 186,000. We missed 4th place of course, but had the rest. PL.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

54 minutes ago, Macca said:

That is overs ... he's sure to get a few big bags against the lesser lights as well as getting his consistent 2, 3 or 4 goals anyway.

And I like Champagne Cuddles as well as 'Care to Think' to be running on in the Stradbroke although there are any number of lightweight chances.  Impending is the one though even with the 57.5 kgs.  It is a Group 1 horse.

Well thats it! Hes delivered in spades so far. The bookies havent caught up yet. As DZ pointed out he was 9/1 at the start of the season.

[Macca 16,173]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Great field in the Stradbrolke. One of my favourite races and my mate and make an off seaspn exception for this race most years.

Post dees match i backed material Man and took Max Almighty for a place in the preceding race at Belmont (i love vibe bet and Maxy had just played another pearler).

I think changing trifecta strategies to suit the race is smart and boxing 5 not a bad idea as a rule. With trifectas i often like standing out a winner one out (often, but not always, the fav) and having two or three (or more) to come second and third. If the winner is not super short can sometimes be vale (and even if short can get value if a longshot fills a place)

Yep ...  reckon we pick the 5 horses between us and then we can decide what to do with the 5 picks as we see fit.  Putting aside the 3-5-5 format and just nominate 5 horses that can win.  With yourself having 2 picks for the time being until we rotate things around.  Wadda can be next up with 2 picks after that and then I'll have have a go to complete the rotation.

Using the 5 horses in a First4 might mean adding another horse and going with a 2-4-6-6 or a 3-3-6-6 combo or whatever.  Boxing the 5 in a First4 is another option.  Same deal for the trifecta although I tend to lean towards boxing the 5 and hope that the outsider of the 5 picks wins.  But that is just me.

Edited June 3, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

On 6/1/2018 at 9:23 PM, Macca said:

Forgot to mention that the racing from Epsom Downs (which includes the Derby run at 1.30am) is being covered by the free-to-air racing channel from 10.30pm Saturday night.  

And here is the Epsom Downs track layout (n.b.  the maximum distance seems to be a mile and a half which is the Derby distance) ...

 

I think Her Majesty was there last night Macca. Shes an avid race fan and loves a day at the track. I wonder if there is a Royal Bookmaker or she prefers to duck down to the local TAB.

[Macca 16,173]

13 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I think Her Majesty was there last night Macca. Shes an avid race fan and loves a day at the track. I wonder if there is a Royal Bookmaker or she prefers to duck down to the local TAB.

Ha ha ... I'm looking forward to the week long Ascot Carnival - there is a feature Group 1 race on every night and the trifecta pools might be big enough to warrant having an exotic bet on those Group 1's.  A few Aussie horses will be competing as well as a few from HK.  Starts on Tuesday June 19. 

In the meantime we've got the Stradbroke this weekend as well as the 3rd leg of the USA Triple Crown (Belmont Stakes Sunday 8am)  'Justify' should create history.  Their courses are certainly different over there - here's Royal Ascot ...

 

[Macca 16,173]

The Prizemoney for the feature Spring races in Melbourne has had some significant increases ... read more here

Also,  Winx will make her return in the newly named Winx Stakes (formerly the Warwick Stakes) ... on August 18.  The race is now a Group 1 affair and the prizemoney has been lifted to $500k ... read more here

Anyway here are the changes in prizemoney for the Spring carnival in Melbourne ... the Sydney racing scene is sure to keep pace as it has in the recent past.  All good competition for the industry in general. 

MELBOURNE CUP

2017 $6.3 million

$2018 $7.3 million

COX PLATE

2017 $3 million

2018 $5 million

CAULFIELD CUP

2017 $3 million

2018 $5 million

OTHER HIGHLIGHTS

VICTORIA DERBY — $1.5 million to $2 million

MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP — $300,000 to $500,000

INGLIS BANNER — $250,000 to $500,000

— $1.2 million to be spread across the 67 country Cups

— non-TAB meetings up 20 per cent to $12,000 a race

— Tier 2 meetings up 25 per cent to $15,000 a race

— Benchmark 58 races up 11 per cent to $20,000 a race

The VRC also announced that they would now pay down to 12th in the Melbourne Cup after the cut off point had been 10th. Moonee Valley will now pay down to 10th in the Cox Plate after previously paying down to eighth.

Runners who finish from sixth to 12th will receive $150,000 in stakemoney.

TOP INTERNATIONAL RACES BY PRIZEMONEY

Pegasus World Cup 1800m $15,870,000

Dubai World Cup 2000m $13,200,000

The Everest 1200m $13,000,000

Breeders’ Cup Classic 2000m $7,930,000

Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe 2400m $7,930,000

Japan Cup 2400m $7,706,000

Arima Kinen 2500m $7,706,000

Melbourne Cup 3200m $7,300,000

Dubai Turf 1800m $6,600,000

Dubai Sheema Classic 2410m $6,600,000

Breeders’ Cup Turf 2400m $5,290,000

Japan Derby 2400m $5,137,000

Ladbrokes Cox Plate 2040m $5,000,000

Caulfield Cup 2400m $5,000,000

Edited June 4, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

14 hours ago, Macca said:

The Prizemoney for the feature Spring races in Melbourne has had some significant increases ... read more here

Also,  Winx will make her return in the newly named Winx Stakes (formerly the Warwick Stakes) ... on August 18.  The race is now a Group 1 affair and the prizemoney has been lifted to $500k ... read more here

Anyway here are the changes in prizemoney for the Spring carnival in Melbourne ... the Sydney racing scene is sure to keep pace as it has in the recent past.  All good competition for the industry in general. 

MELBOURNE CUP

2017 $6.3 million

$2018 $7.3 million

COX PLATE

2017 $3 million

2018 $5 million

CAULFIELD CUP

2017 $3 million

2018 $5 million

OTHER HIGHLIGHTS

VICTORIA DERBY — $1.5 million to $2 million

MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP — $300,000 to $500,000

INGLIS BANNER — $250,000 to $500,000

— $1.2 million to be spread across the 67 country Cups

— non-TAB meetings up 20 per cent to $12,000 a race

— Tier 2 meetings up 25 per cent to $15,000 a race

— Benchmark 58 races up 11 per cent to $20,000 a race

The VRC also announced that they would now pay down to 12th in the Melbourne Cup after the cut off point had been 10th. Moonee Valley will now pay down to 10th in the Cox Plate after previously paying down to eighth.

Runners who finish from sixth to 12th will receive $150,000 in stakemoney.

TOP INTERNATIONAL RACES BY PRIZEMONEY

Pegasus World Cup 1800m $15,870,000

Dubai World Cup 2000m $13,200,000

The Everest 1200m $13,000,000

Breeders’ Cup Classic 2000m $7,930,000

Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe 2400m $7,930,000

Japan Cup 2400m $7,706,000

Arima Kinen 2500m $7,706,000

Melbourne Cup 3200m $7,300,000

Dubai Turf 1800m $6,600,000

Dubai Sheema Classic 2410m $6,600,000

Breeders’ Cup Turf 2400m $5,290,000

Japan Derby 2400m $5,137,000

Ladbrokes Cox Plate 2040m $5,000,000

Caulfield Cup 2400m $5,000,000

Wow, thanks Macca. A 32% increase since 2015, that’s a massive percentage. 

Great to see they didn’t forget about the little guys with the push to increase money at grass roots level. I’ve been to a few picnic races and had a lot of fun. I remember whilst holidaying at Phillip Island one summer my uncle took us to the Woolamai picnic races and the best part was watching the same horse go around twice on the day. Almost got into the money in both races. 

 

[Macca 16,173]

12 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Wow, thanks Macca. A 32% increase since 2015, that’s a massive percentage. 

Great to see they didn’t forget about the little guys with the push to increase money at grass roots level. I’ve been to a few picnic races and had a lot of fun. I remember whilst holidaying at Phillip Island one summer my uncle took us to the Woolamai picnic races and the best part was watching the same horse go around twice on the day. Almost got into the money in both races.

The Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup now has a combined prize pool of $12.3Million ... it's these 2 races where we'll continue to see more of the imports. 

Especially the better prospects in the 3yo bracket from UK/Ireland/Europe ... they can get in at the lighter weights as long as they qualify.  

However,  The Cox Plate WFA Classic does clash with the G1 Classics in Europe,  Japan & the USA (Arc de Triomphe,  QE II Stakes,  Tenno Sho,  Japan Cup & The Breeders Cup Classic Day* in the States)  It is the wrong time of the year to attract the best WFA horses from overseas. 

I doubt that they'll ever move the Cox Plate to the Autumn to accompany the Queen Elizabeth Stakes/Australian Cup/Tancred Stakes but if it was to be moved we'd have 4 x Classic WFA events (2000m & 2400m) in the Autumn with a total prize pool of at least $12Million. 

That sort of money would attract a lot of interest especially as many of the better WFA horses from overseas might be available to race here.  It's why Dubai decided to create a window in late March for their big day. 

*For those who may not be aware,  the biggest racing day in the USA is the Breeders Cup Day which is held over the same weekend as arguably our biggest race day - Derby Day. 

Edited June 5, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

13 hours ago, Macca said:

The Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup now has a combined prize pool of $12.3Million ... it's these 2 races where we'll continue to see more of the imports. 

Especially the better prospects in the 3yo bracket from UK/Ireland/Europe ... they can get in at the lighter weights as long as they qualify.  

However,  The Cox Plate WFA Classic does clash with the G1 Classics in Europe,  Japan & the USA (Arc de Triomphe,  QE II Stakes,  Tenno Sho,  Japan Cup & The Breeders Cup Classic Day* in the States)  It is the wrong time of the year to attract the best WFA horses from overseas. 

I doubt that they'll ever move the Cox Plate to the Autumn to accompany the Queen Elizabeth Stakes/Australian Cup/Tancred Stakes but if it was to be moved we'd have 4 x Classic WFA events (2000m & 2400m) in the Autumn with a total prize pool of at least $12Million. 

That sort of money would attract a lot of interest especially as many of the better WFA horses from overseas might be available to race here.  It's why Dubai decided to create a window in late March for their big day. 

*For those who may not be aware,  the biggest racing day in the USA is the Breeders Cup Day which is held over the same weekend as arguably our biggest race day - Derby Day. 

"MVRC chairman Don Casboult applauded the long-awaited raising of the Cox Plate prizemoney, the first since 2002".

I find that slightly amazing.

[Macca 16,173]

43 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

"MVRC chairman Don Casboult applauded the long-awaited raising of the Cox Plate prizemoney, the first since 2002".

I find that slightly amazing.

16 years is a long time considering how much extra money has been poured into the industry in that time.

The MVRC has invited the connections to about 13 top WFA horses for the Cox Plate including Cracksman and it will be interesting to see how many of the offers are taken up Wadda.

As previously stated,  there is a lot of competition at that time of the year with regards to the Worldwide WFA classics.

[Macca 16,173]

@binman  @Wadda We Sing @Dee Zephyr 

Picked out 3 races that might suit our Trifecta/First4 ... as always,  the consensus approval wins out.  However,  I've marked the Straddie on top as it seems the more obvious choice.  Joint 4th favourite Danon Liberty is the big firmer but it is 1st emergency at this stage.  Same deal for the other joint 4th favourite Osborne Bulls (2nd emergency)

The card at Doomben is a good one with 3 x Group 2 races to accompany the 3 x Group 1's.  Including the Brisbane Cup which has a small but reasonable field and the QLD Guineas which also has a decent field assembled. 

Stradbroke Handicap  Group 1  $1.5Million  1350m  2.15pm

Queensland Derby  Group 1  $600k  2200m  3.35pm

JJ Atkins Plate  Group 1  $600k  1600m  2-Y-O  2.55pm

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

@binman  @Wadda We Sing @Dee Zephyr 

Picked out 3 races that might suit our Trifecta/First4 ... as always,  the consensus approval wins out.  However,  I've marked the Straddie on top as it seems the more obvious choice.  Joint 4th favourite Danon Liberty is the big firmer but it is 1st emergency at this stage.  Same deal for the other joint 4th favourite Osborne Bulls (2nd emergency)

The card at Doomben is a good one with 3 x Group 2 races to accompany the 3 x Group 1's.  Including the Brisbane Cup which has a small but reasonable field and the QLD Guineas which also has a decent field assembled. 

Stradbroke Handicap  Group 1  $1.5Million  1350m  2.15pm

Queensland Derby  Group 1  $600k  2200m  3.35pm

JJ Atkins Plate  Group 1  $600k  1600m  2-Y-O  2.55pm

Stradbroke is my pick Macca. One of my favourite races on the calendar. Actually, the whole race day is thoroughly enjoyable. 

DZ would like to announce Dan Zephyr is officially retired. 

One of mate’s other horses and former stablemate to Dan Zephyr has accepted for Flemington on Saturday. It’s the third emergency so here’s hoping for a few scratchings. 

Flemington Race 9 Number 19

El Magnificence. Odds $26-$34 ( Various )

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/flemington-20180609/ron-taylor-handicap-race-9

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Stradbroke is my pick Macca. One of my favourite races on the calendar. Actually, the whole race day is thoroughly enjoyable. 

DZ would like to announce Dan Zephyr is officially retired. 

One of mate’s other horses and former stablemate to Dan Zephyr has accepted for Flemington on Saturday. It’s the third emergency so here’s hoping for a few scratchings. 

Flemington Race 9 Number 19

El Magnificence. Odds $26-$34 ( Various )

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/flemington-20180609/ron-taylor-handicap-race-9

Well the Dan went out on a good note at least ... won 8 races and over 400k for the connections so a more than decent career. 

And Doomben on Saturday gets all the attention ... lets hope the track holds up.  I'm going in for some First4 action in races 3 through to 8.

The fields are strong,  the racing starts early and we're all done by 4.20pm.  Should be a really good days racing DZ.

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

12 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Stradbroke is my pick Macca. One of my favourite races on the calendar. Actually, the whole race day is thoroughly enjoyable. 

DZ would like to announce Dan Zephyr is officially retired. 

One of mate’s other horses and former stablemate to Dan Zephyr has accepted for Flemington on Saturday. It’s the third emergency so here’s hoping for a few scratchings. 

Flemington Race 9 Number 19

El Magnificence. Odds $26-$34 ( Various )

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/flemington-20180609/ron-taylor-handicap-race-9

Yes farewell to the Zeph. Thanks for the ride. Went out the best way possible. The King is dead, long live the King....El Magnificence!!!

Straddie is fine with me. Just wondering what day the emergencies come in or out officially? Assume its the morning of the race? Cause i like Osborne Bulls thats all.....

Edited June 7, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

6 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes farewell to the Zeph. Thanks for the ride. Went out the best way possible. The King is dead, long live the King....El Magnificence!!!

Straddie is fine with me. Just wondering what day the emergencies come in or out officially? Assume its the morning of the race? Cause i like Osborne Bulls thats all.....

Yeah we might be best to wait until maybe Saturday for our tips Wadda

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

There’s been one scratching in the El Magnificence race. Now for two more?.

[Macca 16,173]

2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

There’s been one scratching in the El Magnificence race. Now for two more?.

It's always good to follow a few horses DZ ... apart from the 'Zephyr' there's been Pounamu,  Ace High,  Le Romain and a couple/few others that we've followed up on.  Speaking of which ... 'Despatch' is running around in race 9 at Flemington on Saturday whilst 'Art Series' is running in the 5th race at Belmont (Art Series has not run out of a place in it's 12 runs to date)  Both horses seem to know where the finishing line is.  

And the Stradbroke has that Newmarket Hcp feel about it in terms of the 2 top weights drifting in the market (Impending/Santa Ana Lane vs Redkirk Warrior/Brave Smash)  Winning Group 1 form over the distance ticks 2 very big boxes.  And as much as the race often suits the lightweights,  both top weights have dropped a couple/few kgs from their last few runs. 

[Macca 16,173]

Well you have to give credit to the MVRC in their efforts to attract some of the World's best middle-distance WFA performers for the WS Cox Plate.  If they were to secure 2, 3 or 4 of the horses listed below they will be doing very well.  Read more here ...  Cracksman one of 13 invited to take on Winx in Cox Plate 2018

        

                   The LONGINES World's Best Racehorse Rankings
                        for 3yos and upwards which raced between
                                1st January 2018 - 6th May 2018

Edited June 7, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,173]

Well the Stradebroke Handicap it is then - here's the racenet.com form for the race

We probably should wait and see on the track conditions,  weather outlook & the scratchings so maybe Saturday morning is the go for our tips?

And are we just picking 5 horses and then we work out what we're going to do with the picks with our own betting strategies?  If so,  the order is as such ...

• Pick 1 - @Dee Zephyr 
• Pick 2 - @Wadda We Sing 
• Pick 3 - @Macca 
• Pick 4 - @binman 
• Pick 5 - @binman 

n.b.  The Brisbane Cup & Derby are over the 2200m whilst the Dane Ripper Stakes & Stradbroke Handicap are over the 1350m so all 4 races involve a decent straight run until the first turn of their respective races ...

Edited June 7, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

24 minutes ago, Macca said:

Well the Stradebroke Handicap it is then - here's the racenet.com form for the race

We probably should wait and see on the track conditions,  weather outlook & the scratchings so maybe Saturday morning is the go for our tips?

And are we just picking 5 horses and then we work out what we're going to do with the picks with our own betting strategies?  If so,  the order is as such ...

• Pick 1 - @Dee Zephyr 
• Pick 2 - @Wadda We Sing 
• Pick 3 - @Macca 
• Pick 4 - @binman 
• Pick 5 - @binman 

n.b.  The Brisbane Cup & Derby are over the 2200m whilst the Dane Ripper Stakes & Stradbroke Handicap are over the 1350m so all 4 races involve a decent straight run until the first turn of their respective races ...

I’m happy with picking 5 horses and placing them our own way Macca. I’ll be studying the form tomorrow night and might even place my selection then due to work on Saturday. 

If I decide to wait until Saturday morning for selection I’ll make sure I find time early enough to place it.

[Macca 16,173]

Slight departure with my best bet this week - a bit of each way value.  A Black Booker.

Belmont Race 5  No.4  Art Series  $7.00 win ($2.65 place)

As stated earlier,  the horse has never run out of a place in its 12 runs and has had 2 starts at Belmont for 2 wins.  Goes hard at the finishing line too.  Drawn wide but has good early speed - they run straight for the first 450m of the 1400m races at Belmont as well. 

Edited June 7, 2018 by Macca