A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 minutes ago, Macca said:

Different quarantine rules I believe Wadda ... for the HK raced horses to race here they are required to be quarantined somewhere in China for 6 months.  Therefore,  the owners don't bother.

For the Japan based horses,  it might only be a couple of weeks there and a couple of weeks here (quarantine) ... UK based horses the same?  

Beat the Clock is an Australian bred horse for instance but we'll probably never see the horse race here ... I'd love to see that horse along with Mr Stunning,  DB Pin & Ivictory all over here racing in our sprint races. 

6m in China? You get less for murder ! No wonder they dont bother......how does 6m in China free an animal of any illness or disease it may be carrying? Someone needs to rework that. I almost suspect theyre trying to shield our racing industry form gun horses.

[Macca 16,173]

Just now, Wadda We Sing said:

6m in China? You get less for murder ! No wonder they dont bother......how does 6m in China free an animal of any illness or disease it may be carrying? Someone needs to rework that. I almost suspect theyre trying to shield our racing industry form gun horses.

You could be right Wadda ... I read somewhere that they are trying to address the issue but those HK based horses are free to go to other major racing centre's virtually unhindered (like Royal Ascot)

It's just here where the quarantine laws are way too tough on horses from certain countries yet not tough at all with horses from other countries.  There's no standard practice from what I can gather. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

12 hours ago, Macca said:

You could be right Wadda ... I read somewhere that they are trying to address the issue but those HK based horses are free to go to other major racing centre's virtually unhindered (like Royal Ascot)

It's just here where the quarantine laws are way too tough on horses from certain countries yet not tough at all with horses from other countries.  There's no standard practice from what I can gather. 

Sounds like the AFL......

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

17 hours ago, Macca said:

@Dee Zephyr @binman @Wadda We Sing

The choices for our trifecta combo are dwindling somewhat but I found 2 decent races with another that might take your fancy. 

I'm happy to go with the consensus so if you've got a preferred option or if you've another race choice,  feel free to put your choice forward. 

Doomben 10,000  Group 1  1200m  WFA  $700k

Morphettville  SA Derby  Group 1  2500m  SW  $600k

Scone  Inglis 3yo Guineas  1400m  3YO  SW  $400k

Scone Racecourse ...

Trifecta Strike Rate

3: 1 - 2 (+$30.50)

Best Bet Strike Rate

46: 22 - 10 - 2

Australian Group and Listed Races

 

 

Hi Macca.

I am leaning towards the Doomben 10,000.

Not fussed either, happy with majority. If we can get the right combo and the two favourites miss out on the win the tri could show a healthy divvy.

I don’t mind the Derby either, although I do feel it’s slightly difficult to gauge 3yr olds in a long distance race unless we are talking an out and out star. Even then you might come across a less fancied runner that just loves the long trip and can run all day and outstage a hot pot.

[Macca 16,173]

1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Hi Macca.

I am leaning towards the Doomben 10,000.

Not fussed either, happy with majority. If we can get the right combo and the two favourites miss out on the win the tri could show a healthy divvy.

I don’t mind the Derby either, although I do feel it’s slightly difficult to gauge 3yr olds in a long distance race unless we are talking an out and out star. Even then you might come across a less fancied runner that just loves the long trip and can run all day and outstage a hot pot.

I agree DZ  ... the Doomben 10000 would be my choice. 

I also prefer to limit these trifecta combined efforts to the Group 1 races only.  That is generally how I operate. 

That would take us to late June and then we could start up again in early September. 

Just a thought.

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

 Best Bet: Doomben R9 No.2 Higher Ground

Tab Odds $3.10

Terrific win last start nosing out its stablemate in G3 level. Usually likes to settle midfield and shouldn’t have any trouble finding a good spot from barrier 6. Up half a kilo in weight but it looks like it’s a classy colt out of So You Think. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

 Best Bet: Doomben R9 No.2 Higher Ground

Tab Odds $3.10

Terrific win last start nosing out its stablemate in G3 level. Usually likes to settle midfield and shouldn’t have any trouble finding a good spot from barrier 6. Up half a kilo in weight but it looks like it’s a classy colt out of So You Think. 

Hi yall, been working very late hours on a film production at my house, just got my computer and internet back...forgive me i havent even had a look. God its pissing down here, over 50mm in the rain gauge and i think its got a leak! Theyre also shooting Michelle Paynes film here in the main st. Rachel Griffiths directing. Red letter day here in the town.

Im happy with the Doomben 10,000.....Best bets....? Its gonna be hard in the wet....

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Hi yall, been working very late hours on a film production at my house, just got my computer and internet back...forgive me i havent even had a look. God its pissing down here, over 50mm in the rain gauge and i think its got a leak! Theyre also shooting Michelle Paynes film here in the main st. Rachel Griffiths directing. Red letter day here in the town.

Im happy with the Doomben 10,000.....Best bets....? Its gonna be hard in the wet....

Welcome back Wadda. Mate, if they want a few extras for Michelle Payne’s movie make sure you put a good word in for us. It’s pretty wet here also. Predicting Swans to win 48-42 tonight.

[Macca 16,173]

Well,  the Doomben 10,000 it is then gentlemen ... over to you @Wadda We Sing for the first tip. 

Got a half-decent percentage of the First4 in the Scone Cup today ... those speed maps,  settling positions and finishing speeds on racenet.com came in real handy.  Would have got the first5 if there was such a thing!

Whilst I'm here,  I may as well post up the best bets from the experts ... however,  Gator's tip might be a bit of a risk after all the rain we've had but I'll post it up anyway.  The treble might be worth a fiver - you never know. 

• James Jordan (JJ) - Morphettville  Race 4  No.1  Tequila Time $4.40
• Sky Thoroughbred - Scone  Race 4  No.8  Moss Trip  $3.40
• Gator (Racing.com) - Caulfield  Race 3  No.1  Amovatio $5.50

The 'Get On' crew are split between 'Main Stage' & 'Leicester' in the SA Derby. 

They had a good chat about the Doomben 10000 as well but I'll leave that evaluation aside and let you fellas break it all down.   After Wadda and myself have our picks it's then over to  @binman  and then @Dee Zephyr

  @Dee Zephyr

@binman

Edited May 11, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

9 minutes ago, Macca said:

Well,  the Doomben 10,000 it is then gentlemen ... over to you @Wadda We Sing for the first tip. 

Got a half-decent percentage of the First4 in the Scone Cup today ... those speed maps,  settling positions and finishing speeds on racenet.com came in real handy.  Would have got the first5 if there was such a thing!

Whilst I'm here,  I may as well post up the best bets from the experts ... however,  Gator's tip might be a bit of a risk after all the rain we've had but I'll post it up anyway.  The treble might be worth a fiver - you never know. 

• James Jordan (JJ) - Morphettville  Race 4  No.1  Tequila Time $4.40
• Sky Thoroughbred - Scone  Race 4  No.8  Moss Trip  $3.40
• Gator (Racing.com) - Caulfield  Race 3  No.1  Amovatio $5.50

The 'Get On' crew are split between 'Main Stage' & 'Leicester' in the SA Derby. 

They had a good chat about the Doomben 10000 as well but I'll leave evaluation aside and let you fellas break it all down.   After Wadda and myself have our picks it's then over to  @binman  and then @Dee Zephyr

  @Dee Zephyr

@binman

Cheers for the bets above Macca.

 Nice work on the Scone Cup, not a bad dividend at all for the F4.

Lets hope we have two wins in Brisbane tomorrow. Also, the Zephyr is running at Caulfield tomorrow. Long odds and a bad barrier again, I’d say they might scratch the horse with this rain. 

Leicester is a big player according to a couple of co-workers that part own horses trained by Mr D Weir.

[Macca 16,173]

2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Cheers for the bets above Macca.

 Nice work on the Scone Cup, not a bad dividend at all for the F4.

Lets hope we have two wins in Brisbane tomorrow. Also, the Zephyr is running at Caulfield tomorrow. Long odds and a bad barrier again, I’d say they might scratch the horse with this rain. 

Leicester is a big player according to a couple of co-workers that part own horses trained by Mr D Weir.

The trainer of 'Houtzen' mentioned this morning on RSN that the horse won't be ridden forward and would be ridden for luck.  No doubt because of the wide gate.  

It's a 350 metre dash to that big long turn at Doomben so the settling positions of the horses are all important - those leading can scoot away entering the 350 metre long straight so if there's any inside bias,  it could be a leaders track.  A few of the more fancied runners might be coming from a fair way back.  A good field though.

And Darren Weir was a little circumspect about the 2500m with Leicester but the same could be said for a number of the other horses in the race.  Tough race to find the right trifecta combo,  all the same. 

As you said DZ,  let's get the 2 wins!

Edited May 11, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

19 minutes ago, Macca said:

The trainer of 'Houtzen' mentioned this morning on RSN that the horse won't be ridden forward and would be ridden for luck.  No doubt because of the wide gate.  

It's a 350 dash to that big long turn at Doomben so the settling positions of the horses are all important - those leading can scoot away entering the 350 metre straight so if there's any inside bias,  it could be a leaders track.  A few of the more fancied runners might be coming from a fair way back.  A good field though.

And Darren Weir was a little circumspect about the 2500m with Leicester but the same could be said for a number of the other horses in the race.  Tough race to find the right trifecta combo,  all the same. 

As you said DZ,  let's get the 2 wins!

Mentioning the wide barrier in regards to Houtzen in your post Macca reminded me of a fellow punter up north stating to me wide barriers in short trips at Doomben don’t have much success. 

Went on a little search and found the following article which I found interesting.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/the-stats-that-matter---doomben-barriers-20180202

I also discovered the Doomben 10,000 was the richest sprint race in Australia when the name was changed from the Doomben Newmarket in 1947. The purse was 10,000 pounds hence the name change.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

Well,  the Doomben 10,000 it is then gentlemen ... over to you @Wadda We Sing for the first tip. 

Got a half-decent percentage of the First4 in the Scone Cup today ... those speed maps,  settling positions and finishing speeds on racenet.com came in real handy.  Would have got the first5 if there was such a thing!

Whilst I'm here,  I may as well post up the best bets from the experts ... however,  Gator's tip might be a bit of a risk after all the rain we've had but I'll post it up anyway.  The treble might be worth a fiver - you never know. 

• James Jordan (JJ) - Morphettville  Race 4  No.1  Tequila Time $4.40
• Sky Thoroughbred - Scone  Race 4  No.8  Moss Trip  $3.40
• Gator (Racing.com) - Caulfield  Race 3  No.1  Amovatio $5.50

The 'Get On' crew are split between 'Main Stage' & 'Leicester' in the SA Derby. 

They had a good chat about the Doomben 10000 as well but I'll leave that evaluation aside and let you fellas break it all down.   After Wadda and myself have our picks it's then over to  @binman  and then @Dee Zephyr

  @Dee Zephyr

@binman

How can you leave out Redzel? Are we going to leave it ot for the win? I dont think we will, so ill throw it in as my pick.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

5 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Welcome back Wadda. Mate, if they want a few extras for Michelle Payne’s movie make sure you put a good word in for us. It’s pretty wet here also. Predicting Swans to win 48-42 tonight.

You were my first thought for Michelle Dee Zephyr....if i see Rachel having a coffee in Ballarat ill tell her. I was an extra in our production.......you will see me in a month when its edited......Hawks are up, dont ya hate that.

[Macca 16,173]

3 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

How can you leave out Redzel? Are we going to leave it ot for the win? I dont think we will, so ill throw it in as my pick.

Yep ... Redzel has to be included Wadda so I'll take 'In Her Time' as the 2nd choice winner.  Like Redzel,  In Her Time should get into a decent settling position in front of a number of other fancied runners.   Good closing speed should get her into the finish. 

So it's over to @binman  to come up with the 3rd choice winner.  Lots of value after the first 2 as well.  And it's obviously a better dividend with the value runner saluting.  No pressure though BM! ?

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

10 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

You were my first thought for Michelle Dee Zephyr....if i see Rachel having a coffee in Ballarat ill tell her. I was an extra in our production.......you will see me in a month when its edited......Hawks are up, dont ya hate that.

 No longer Wadda, a third gamer kicked 7. Never heard of Ronke before tonight. Anyway.....let’s snag a racing multi and trifecta tomorrow.

[Macca 16,173]

8 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

 Best Bet: Doomben R9 No.2 Higher Ground

Tab Odds $3.10

Terrific win last start nosing out its stablemate in G3 level. Usually likes to settle midfield and shouldn’t have any trouble finding a good spot from barrier 6. Up half a kilo in weight but it looks like it’s a classy colt out of So You Think. 

In the end I decided on Darren Weir's horse 'Leicester' in the SA Derby as my best bet.   Morphettville  Race 7  No.3  ($4.60) ... it is also paying $1.90 the place. 

I believe it has drawn well enough to get a good run in the race and it does finish off its races well.  And its main rivals have drawn wide or are drawn outside of it.  I had it marked on top when I put together a trifecta in the race.

[binman 38,019]

10 hours ago, Macca said:

Yep ... Redzel has to be included Wadda so I'll take 'In Her Time' as the 2nd choice winner.  Like Redzel,  In Her Time should get into a decent settling position in front of a number of other fancied runners.   Good closing speed should get her into the finish. 

So it's over to @binman  to come up with the 3rd choice winner.  Lots of value after the first 2 as well.  And it's obviously a better dividend with the value runner saluting.  No pressure though BM! ?

Redzel is a fantastic horse and will be mighty hard to toss. Not  bad odds actually. 

But seeing its taken ill pick Le Romain. A quality horse third up after a 4th first up agianst trapeze aritist, then a brave second to that horse (still annoyed  i missed that quin). Thats a very good form line.

[Macca 16,173]

Just now, binman said:

Redzel is a fantastic horse and will be mighty hard to toss. Not  bad odds actually. 

But seeing its taken ill pick Le Romain. A quality horse third up after a 4th first up agianst trapeze aritist, then a brave second to that horse (still annoyed  i missed that quin). Thats a very good form line.

Yep,  Le Remain was a head off running a track record at its last run - albeit over 1400m.  However,  as you said,  that's a good form line in terms of finishing speed and it can get a good position in this race as well (it should settle just behind 'In Her Time' in the running if the speed maps are accurate)

So it's over to @Dee Zephyr  to finish off the combo. 

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

5 minutes ago, Macca said:

Yep,  Le Remain was a head off running a track record at its last run - albeit over 1400m.  However,  as you said,  that's a good form line in terms of finishing speed and it can get a good position in this race as well (it should settle just behind 'In Her Time' in the running if the speed maps are accurate)

So it's over to @Dee Zephyr  to finish off the combo. 

Pressure is on fellas. I had a few earmarked depending on all three winning selections.

For second and third:

2 Impending 

13 English

Good luck all, especially if you have a dabble on the Zephyr. Haven’t received any word as yet but i do find it interesting the TAB info Centre has the horse on top of the list in regards to Best Form. I can’t work that out to be honest. 

 

[Macca 16,173]

Trifecta combo (3-5-5)

Doomben Race 8

1, 3, 12/ 1, 2, 3, 12, 13/ 1, 2, 3, 12, 13

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

41 minutes ago, Macca said:

Trifecta combo (3-5-5)

Doomben Race 8

1, 3, 12/ 1, 2, 3, 12, 13/ 1, 2, 3, 12, 13

 

Im on. Nice picking guys. Now for my best today: Race 4 Morphettville No 1 Tequila Time

Sorry for the late call, been a bit busy.

Peaceful State R5 No1 will win as well, but its a bit short @ $1.90

Edited May 12, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

So our Best for today is:

Doomben R9 No.2 Higher Ground $3.40

Morphettville Race 4 No 1 Tequila Time $3.60

Morphettville  Race 7  No.3 Leicester $ 4.40

Not bad this week @ $53.85 for your $1.00 outlay. Get on folks and good luck today.

 

 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

14 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

 No longer Wadda, a third gamer kicked 7. Never heard of Ronke before tonight. Anyway.....let’s snag a racing multi and trifecta tomorrow.

Yes as soon as i posted, he kicked one and the Swans got up in the end. Lets hope Charlie Spargo has a day out soon. He looks to have a few party tricks up his sleeve.

Which brings me to this weeks multi.

Morphetville Race 4 Tequila Time Plc  $1.55 (must run a place)

Melbourne 1-39 pts $2.12    (because we never thrash teams) (yet)!

Melbourne Storm +13 pts $1.57 (will smash them at home)

Port Adelaibe/ Adelaide Crows Either side by less than 15.5 pts. $2.60 (SA Darby nearly always goes down to the wire)

Fremantle H2H $1.48 (will smash the Saints over there after we demoralized them last week)

St George Illawarra $1.60 (Side going very strong atm)

Geelong Cats 1-39 $2.24 (close one but Cats to get up over the pies at Cat park) (only Sydney and Melbourne can beat them down there)

$71.15 for your $1.00 outlay.

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

10 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes as soon as i posted, he kicked one and the Swans got up in the end. Lets hope Charlie Spargo has a day out soon. He looks to have a few party tricks up his sleeve.

Which brings me to this weeks multi.

Morphetville Race 4 Tequila Time Plc  $1.55 (must run a place)

Melbourne 1-39 pts $2.12    (because we never thrash teams) (yet)!

Melbourne Storm +13 pts $1.57 (will smash them at home)

Port Adelaibe/ Adelaide Crows Either side by less than 15.5 pts. $2.60 (SA Darby nearly always goes down to the wire)

Fremantle H2H $1.48 (will smash the Saints over there after we demoralized them last week)

St George Illawarra $1.60 (Side going very strong atm)

Geelong Cats 1-39 $2.24 (close one but Cats to get up over the pies at Cat park) (only Sydney and Melbourne can beat them down there)

$71.15 for your $1.00 outlay.

It’s Spargo’s 3rd game today. We’d be happy with four from him but he should be aiming at 8 goals ?.

Good luck with the multi, nice one. Is the Cats v Pies game at Geelong?