Why we will win on Sunday

[Chook 15,023]

We'll get smashed. If I'm right, I'm right. If I'm wrong, we win. So it's win win.

[DemonLad5 1,642]

Please take down this thread. It's going to jinx us.

[Lifelong Demon 75]

3 hours ago, Ingeniokinetikey said:

What is the algorithm for the 'above the shoulders' bit, not being a smart ar$3, but i just feel that is quantitative method on a qualitative problem?  

Recent wins, home game, number of goal kickers... Plenty of options to include. 

[monoccular 17,697]

10 hours ago, M_9 said:

My understanding is that he umpired the Dogs (v Norf) the previous week. Doubt they'd schedule him 3 weeks in a row.

Why do you doubt?  It is the AFL after all.

[What 18,810]

Their back line is totally decimated by injury.  Would be very disappointing if we could not take advantage of that.

[mrtwister 652]

4 minutes ago, monoccular said:

Why do you doubt?  It is the AFL after all.

It's funny because they already have.

WB vs Brisbane - Round 5

WB vs NM - Round 6

WB vs Adelaide - Round 7

 

AND he did the game against us at Etihad in Round 20 last year as well.

[Akum 2,660]

7 hours ago, ProDee said:

1. Nope.  Gawn WILL provide first use.  He doesn't have over 40 more hitouts to advantage in the competition for nothing.  Think about that stat for one moment.  And Gawn is 2 levels higher as a ruckman than he was last year.

2. Yep, they often play a 7 man defence.

Gawn is far and away the biggest danger to the Dogs, so he'll be the main target for their brains trust.

Roughhead & Campbell will have spent the whole week doing nothing else other than practising throw-ins & ball-ups: first, leaning into their opponent or pushing him away, while keeping their eyes fixed on the ball; and second, tying up their opponent's arms, without gripping him (as long as it's done without flexed or curved fingers, the umps seem to let it go), while keeping their eyes fixed on the ball; and third, of course, third-man-up plays. What umps look for is looking at your opponent, and flexed fingers indicating a grip; as long as you keep your hands flat and your eyes fixed on the ball, they don't seem to penalise pushing or restricting your opponent's arms.

Their rucks won't have the slightest intention of winning the hit-out themselves; their whole effort will be to nullify Gawn by making sure that HE doesn't get an effective hit-out at throw-ins and ball-ups. They won't be able to do it at centre bounces, but they'll have another strategy to stop us getting clearances - maybe having someone running full pace off the back of the square.

It worked perfectly (for them) in our 100 point loss last year, because our mids played the whole game as if Gawn wasn't nullified. I just hope that with Craig Jennings on board our brains trust will be able to anticipate their tactics against Gawn and counter them effectively.

We simply have to win the (effective) clearances to have any chance of winning. They'll also have a strategy for Viney, but that's another story.

[Gator 18,009]

9 hours ago, Akum said:

Gawn is far and away the biggest danger to the Dogs, so he'll be the main target for their brains trust.

Roughhead & Campbell will have spent the whole week doing nothing else other than practising throw-ins & ball-ups: first, leaning into their opponent or pushing him away, while keeping their eyes fixed on the ball; and second, tying up their opponent's arms, without gripping him (as long as it's done without flexed or curved fingers, the umps seem to let it go), while keeping their eyes fixed on the ball; and third, of course, third-man-up plays. What umps look for is looking at your opponent, and flexed fingers indicating a grip; as long as you keep your hands flat and your eyes fixed on the ball, they don't seem to penalise pushing or restricting your opponent's arms.

Their rucks won't have the slightest intention of winning the hit-out themselves; their whole effort will be to nullify Gawn by making sure that HE doesn't get an effective hit-out at throw-ins and ball-ups. They won't be able to do it at centre bounces, but they'll have another strategy to stop us getting clearances - maybe having someone running full pace off the back of the square.

It worked perfectly (for them) in our 100 point loss last year, because our mids played the whole game as if Gawn wasn't nullified. I just hope that with Craig Jennings on board our brains trust will be able to anticipate their tactics against Gawn and counter them effectively.

We simply have to win the (effective) clearances to have any chance of winning. They'll also have a strategy for Viney, but that's another story.

Look, I understand everything you're saying, but I simply disagree that their tactics will be as successful as you claim.

I have far more faith that Gawn will continue to provide first use.

[mrtwister 652]

18 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Look, I understand everything you're saying, but I simply disagree that their tactics will be as successful as you claim.

I have far more faith that Gawn will continue to provide first use.

Gawn had minimal impact against the Saints and it was a big part of why we never got going so I'm sure they'll analyse that game.

[Gator 18,009]

2 minutes ago, mrtwister said:

Gawn had minimal impact against the Saints and it was a big part of why we never got going so I'm sure they'll analyse that game.

I wouldn't say "minimal", but Hickey squared the ledger.  

No player is going to dominate every game, but I put Hickey a couple of rungs ahead of the Dogs' ruckmen.

[Robbie57 2,041]

13 hours ago, DemonLad5 said:

Please take down this thread. It's going to jinx us.

Like the rest of us I am a big fan of any jinx however I suspect that we have a team who just believe they can do it with effort and sticking to the plan. Twice this year we failed at both and lost. However more often we have come back and won (or in the case of North went down trying).

So the idea anything will jinx us is redundant. ( I will still wear my lucky red and blue socks)

The reality is that rather than hope we can cause an upset we are genuinely a real chance to win. Neither team can afford to be off 10% in this game.

 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 17,071]

I'm just delighted that neutral supporters will look at the fixture and recognise that this game may be a great one to watch with two of the most exciting teams in the competition.

After the rubbish we've served up over most of the last decade, whether we win or lose, it's nice to know that most games we are in have become enjoyable to watch. Hopefully Channel 7 is coming to a similar view so we get better prime time/free to air games in 2017.