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Comparison of Dees v Dogs

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Posted
I think we all agree the dogs are a pretty good team, so I thought I'd have a look to see how they did it, to try to understand when/if the dees will rise and how we might compare.
 
The dogs jumped in 2015, and look to have a sustainable future for the long term.
 
I think, based on the table below the dogs are two years ahead of us.
 
So if the dogs made the finals in 2015, it would mean the dees would make finals in 2017, I think the dees 17 side might be better than the dogs 15 side, so dees may limp in a year earlier.  It assumes we can keep hogan etc.
 
I would expect Jones, Vince to be the equivalent of Boyd and Murphy in two years time, both probably playing off half back.
 
If you compare the draft classes (considering the two year gap), I would think the dees compare favourably in all comparable classes. 
 
Much will depend on the Petracca, Brayshaw, Weideman, Oliver combo, compared to Stringer, Macrae, Bontempelli, Boyd.  That is the big unknown for the Dees, whereas the dogs already have a pretty good idea of what they have.
 
I think one more year of patience, then the dees will rise, also I don't think we are that far off, in spite of last weeks results.
                         
          2015       2012     2010
        ND 25 Dunkley, Josh   MD 2 Hogan, Jesse   ND22 Mitch Wallis
        ND26 Collins, Kieran   ND 19 Kennedy, Ben   ND44 Tom Liberatore
        ND35 Adams, Marcus   ND 26 Viney, Jack   RD22 Luke Dahlhaus
              ND 48 Kent, Dean   RD39 Jason Johannisen
          2014   ND 52 Jones, Matt      
        ND26 McLean, Toby   ND 68 Terlich, Dean      
        ND27 Webb, Lukas   RD 1 Frost, Sam      
        ND39 Hamilton, Declan              
        ND45 Dale, Bailey       2011     2009
              ND 3 Tyson, Dom   ND23 Koby Stevens
    2015     2013              
ND 3 Oliver, Clayton   ND1  Tom Boyd       2010     2008
ND 7 Weideman, Sam   ND4 Marcus Bontempelli   PLS   Bugg, Tomas   ND31 Jordan Roughead
ND 46 King, Mitch   ND60  Mitch Honeychurch   ND 35 Newton, Ben   RD30 Liam Picken
ND 50 Hulett, Liam         ND 44 Michie, Viv      
RD 6 Wagner, Josh         ND 53 McDonald, Tom      
RD 41 Smith, Joel         RD 17 Pederson, Cam      
                         
    2014     2012       2009     2007
ND 2 Petracca, Christian   ND5 Jake Stringer   ND 2 Trengove, Jack   ND43 Easton Wood
ND 3 Brayshaw, Angus   ND6 Jack Macrae   ND 10 Melksham, Jake   RD Suckling, Matt
ND 40 Neal-Bullen, Alex   ND21  Nathan Hrovat   ND 34 Gawn, Max      
ND 42 Stretch, Billy   ND49 Lachie Hunter              
ND 53 McDonald, Oscar   RD 13 Shane Biggs       2008     2004 or earlier
RD 2 Vandenburg, Aaron         ND 1 Watts, Jack   2004 Dale Morris
RD 20 White, Mitchell         ND 51 Jetta, Neville   2002 Will Minson
              RD 6 Jeffrey Garlett   2001 Matthew Boyd
    2013     2011           1999 Robert Murphy
ND 9 Salem, Christian   ND57 Tory Dickson       2007      
ND 40 Kennedy-Harris, Jay   PSD11 Fletcher Roberts   ND 14 Grimes, Jack      
ND 57 Hunt, Jayden   RD9 Lin Jong   RD 35 Spencer, Jake      
RD 2 Harmes, James   RD27 Tom Campbell              
RD 19 King, Max   RD62 Jack Redpath       2006      
              ND 28 Dawes, Chris      
              ND 46 Garland, Colin      
                         
                  2005      
              ND 12 Jones, Nathan      
              ND 32 Vince, Bernie      
                         
                  2004      
              ND 15 Dunn, Lynden      
              RD 20 Lumumba, Herieter      
 

They nailed 2012.

 

If Boyd does become a serious player for them they will have ended up doing well in 2013.

 

We desperately need a draft year that is a game-changer for us.

 

All the good sides probably have two to three that they seem to knock it out of the park with.

 

Our development has been so awful for so long we just need to hope that you are right and we are on that sort of trajectory.

Think 2014 could end up being that game changer draft for us. I have high hope for all of CP5, Gus, Nibbler, Billy, Oscar, Vandenberg & White.

Only issue i have with the OP is you've listed Boyd going to the Dogs at the end of 2013 when it was the end of 2014.

 

A lot of water to come but being a couple years behind some a couple very daunting lists makes me feel uneasy. Imagine we waited fifty years to peak during another team's dynasty? Shivers. I still think that Essendon 2000 was one of the best teams to have ever been. Picked the wrong year.

7 hours ago, DemonAndrew said:

They nailed 2012.

 

If Boyd does become a serious player for them they will have ended up doing well in 2013.

 

We desperately need a draft year that is a game-changer for us.

 

All the good sides probably have two to three that they seem to knock it out of the park with.

 

Our development has been so awful for so long we just need to hope that you are right and we are on that sort of trajectory.

2014. Petracca, Brayshaw, ANB, Stretch.

Anyway, these comparisons are useless. The Dogs aren't coming back from anywhere near as far back as we were. They played in three straight Prelims don't forget only a few years ago. Plenty of finals experience and guidance there that Melbourne lacks. I think we are realistically 2-3 years behind where the club *wants* to be. I can't see us turning a corner anytime soon. I think we'll just continue this slow upwards climb until we break through. It won't be the revolutionary breakthrough and change that we saw with the Dogs and Port a few years ago. They were polishing a dusty old antique with a bit left in it yet. We're polishing a turd.

Finals in 2016 is a possibility but unlikely. Too tight between 5th and 12th and we're most definitely closer to 12th. 2017 would be a "scrape into finals" year, but even then, we can't understate just how far back we're coming from. I don't think the club wants to admit that. I think they're doing a great job of selling hope and selling our list as being better than what it is.

Edited by praha


Look at their 2010 draft. I know 2 were father sons but to get your back flank and forward flank in Johanneson and Daulhaus from the rookie draft really helps! I know that they have gotten rid of a lot of deadwood but so much depth in their rookie drafts! Well done Dogs recruiting. 

For us, I do think 2013-15 have to be our core for us to make it. If you think about it: 

Harmes <player x> <player x>
Salem McDonald White 
Stretch Oliver Neal Bullen 
VDB Weiderman <player x>
JKH Hogan Hunt
<player x> Brayshaw Petracca

King, King, Hulett, Wager 

There is enough talent in there and we have nailed our VDB and Harmes rookie picks. The fact that White and now Wagner are playing are great signs for those 2. 

Now it is development and hoping that we have the same curve as the dogs. 

 

the Bullies have built their current Club & list on this platform   >   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Bulldogs#2000s

Its all happened on solid leadership from the passionate Smorgan,  & the solid lengthy development of Eade..   The finances were settled & the culture changed by the 2 of them.

Add young draft picks entering a healthy environment to learn within, & things start to blossom.  Maca & his assistants would have shaken the players from any comfort zone developing in the list,  & then Luke Beveridge enters the picture,  to add new energy & positivity.

Add new building facilities,  and a dash of pride,  & nudge that snowball along.

Really as simple as that.   The doggies have always had the inner tenacity.    Their club's nature is bred on it,   & they sing about it every week,  to reinforce it in the back of their minds.

Hang on, wearn't the Bulldogs in disarray 2 seasons ago? Top players walked, coach sacked, management flapping about like headless chooks and many predicted here they were in for a big slide. Enter Beveridge and they have risen like the Phoenix. I would give him full credit for what has happened because it would have been far easier to continue the downward spiral. Their players perform with a passion and energy we can only dream about. If we had  that, we would have been on the up with them. Macca did bugger all IMO. 

Edited by america de cali

 

I really like what Caleb Daniel brings to their midfield. Works really hard to run to the right position and always delivers to advantage. Has overcome the size disadvantage to become an important player. Great recruiting.

1 hour ago, praha said:

2014. Petracca, Brayshaw, ANB, Stretch.

Anyway, these comparisons are useless. The Dogs aren't coming back from anywhere near as far back as we were. They played in three straight Prelims don't forget only a few years ago. Plenty of finals experience and guidance there that Melbourne lacks. I think we are realistically 2-3 years behind where the club *wants* to be. I can't see us turning a corner anytime soon. I think we'll just continue this slow upwards climb until we break through. It won't be the revolutionary breakthrough and change that we saw with the Dogs and Port a few years ago. They were polishing a dusty old antique with a bit left in it yet. We're polishing a turd.

Finals in 2016 is a possibility but unlikely. Too tight between 5th and 12th and we're most definitely closer to 12th. 2017 would be a "scrape into finals" year, but even then, we can't understate just how far back we're coming from. I don't think the club wants to admit that. I think they're doing a great job of selling hope and selling our list as being better than what it is.

Yes and if we cant beat Essendon will will finish behind last year

ie No improvement


41 minutes ago, america de cali said:

Hang on, wearn't the Bulldogs in disarray 2 seasons ago? Top players walked, coach sacked, management flapping about like headless chooks and many predicted here they were in for a big slide. Enter Beveridge and they have risen like the Phoenix. I would give him full credit for what has happened because it would have been far easier to continue the downward spiral. Their players perform with a passion and energy we can only dream about. If we had  that, we would have been on the up with them. Macca did bugger all IMO. 

Macca set up Beveridges' list and did the hard early work. Beveridge who is doing well, got the benefit of development and games played by his boys, gaining experience. When he came in they were ready to fire. Beveridge clearly has the players playing for him though. 

10 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Beveridge clearly has the players playing for him though. 

Raises the question  for whom our players are playing for?  3 seasons of snail pace development under the Roos regime sees us more or less at the same level  as in early 2014. Tangible improvement has to happen this season or we have to find our own Beveridge. And that will be a matter of luck more than anything else.

Edited by america de cali

1 minute ago, america de cali said:

Raises the question  for whom our players are playing for?  3 seasons of snail pace development under the Roos regime sees us more or less at the same  as in early 2014.  

Not sure last week they even played. Roos has only had them for two seasons not three. They did show flashes in the NAB Cup of a more attacking style. Hopefully we see more of that during the season. 

A disappointing thing is that players are re signing at all other clubs but ours ATM. That is worrying. 

2 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Not sure last week they even played. Roos has only had them for two seasons not three. They did show flashes in the NAB Cup of a more attacking style. Hopefully we see more of that during the season. 

I am counting this season also but you are right. 2014 and 15 we started  like we were improving then fell away. Seems like we are heading the same way.  


No comparison. Obviously.

Here's what Max said after the Round 1 win.

___________________________________________________________________

While Gawn said the group was thrilled with the win, they must now maintain their momentum.

“We won Round 1 last year as well and then we didn’t really go on with it. It’s all about the next few weeks and how we recover and what we do at training this week,” he said.

“We want to go on with this. Obviously we’ve won three NAB games in a row, but that doesn’t really matter. It’s been a long time since we’ve won two or three AFL games in a row.

“We we’ve got a couple of games coming up that will be testers.”

2 hours ago, jackaub said:

Yes and if we cant beat Essendon will will finish behind last year

ie No improvement

I am as frustrated as anyone but it's Round 2. After we lost 3 in a row vs Freo, Sydney and Hawthorn, people had us below 2014 and potentially finishing last again. Granted they were three top teams but we've been here before. Let's not forget the Bombers were leading Sydney in Sydney by 40 points in Round 1 last year and lost but almost won...with arguably a worse team than they fielded on Saturday.

They then beat Hawthorn in round 2.

Like Roos said, this is the AFL, any one team can get up against any opposition irrespective of ladder position if they play to win and stick to the plan. Melbourne did not stick to the plan on Saturday and lost. It's not the end of the world. I am just saying that we are still only a 8-12-win team, and 12 wins may not be enough for 8th this year. You're going to need a very strong percentage and we don't score enough to do that.

Edited by praha

6 hours ago, praha said:

2014. Petracca, Brayshaw, ANB, Stretch.

Anyway, these comparisons are useless. The Dogs aren't coming back from anywhere near as far back as we were. They played in three straight Prelims don't forget only a few years ago. Plenty of finals experience and guidance there that Melbourne lacks. I think we are realistically 2-3 years behind where the club *wants* to be. I can't see us turning a corner anytime soon. I think we'll just continue this slow upwards climb until we break through. It won't be the revolutionary breakthrough and change that we saw with the Dogs and Port a few years ago. They were polishing a dusty old antique with a bit left in it yet. We're polishing a turd.

Finals in 2016 is a possibility but unlikely. Too tight between 5th and 12th and we're most definitely closer to 12th. 2017 would be a "scrape into finals" year, but even then, we can't understate just how far back we're coming from. I don't think the club wants to admit that. I think they're doing a great job of selling hope and selling our list as being better than what it is.

That was 2008, 09 and 10. That is a fair while ago.

Western Bulldogs' recruiting has obviously been excellent. They nailed early picks in Stringer, Macrae and Bontempelli. They've had a very good run with FS recruits in Liberatore, Wallis and Hunter (and they will hope Z Cordy). Their speculative recruiting has also worked out pretty well in netting the likes of Dahlhaus, Johanisson, Adams, Jong with low draft picks. They have also been pretty clever with their recruiting of role players from other clubs in Suckling, Biggs, Stevens and Crameri (sometimes). The Tom Boyd deal is still up in the air but they've probably recruited as well as any other club over the past 5 seasons. 

It also helps that they've had stability in their administration, experienced on field leaders in M Boyd, Murphy, Picken and Morris and appear to have a very good coach.

I'd say they are probably 3 years ahead of us. However, if Hogan, Petracca, Brayshaw, Salem and Viney turn out to be as good as I think they can, we can go past them.

Edited by Johnny Karate


56 minutes ago, ENYAW said:

It is like comparing Jarslberg Cheese ( $36 Kg) against chalk.

Rubbish.

 
1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

That was 2008, 09 and 10. That is a fair while ago.

Still, you can't understate the influence it has on talent coming in and the feeling around the place. They played finals in recent memory. And consistently. 

7 hours ago, praha said:

Still, you can't understate the influence it has on talent coming in and the feeling around the place. They played finals in recent memory. And consistently. 

But the blokes who are their leaders consistently faltered at the second last hurdle too. In some ways that could work against them in a stronger way than our lack of experience in failed finals campaigns.

EDIT. I hope that makes sense. It is getting late now though.

Edited by AdamFarr


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