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PAMPERED EAGLES-UMPIRES PET

Bobby McKenzie
Bobby McKenzie
in Melbourne Demons

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Posted

While waiting for trade information I did a little research into the free kick count (for and against) and was flabbergasted at the difference between West Coast and the non pampered Demons. Actually, I was not only shocked but annoyed that there could be such a big difference between us and them. We know of course that there are many 'duckers' in their team but surely this doesn't explain the huge discrepancy.

Over the last 10 seasons Eagles have received 4768 frees FOR as against 3584 paid AGAINST them. A difference in their favour of 752 frees! In all of the 10 seasons West Coast had been ahead in the free kick count.

Melbourne, on the other hand, has received just 4071 frees and had 4186 against. A difference of NEGATIVE 115.( That's an overall difference of 867). So what is going on here? Are we breaking the rules or are the umps being influenced by the vocal crowd at Subiaco or what?

In my search I could find no other team that could in anyway rival the Eagles. They sure have been given a marvellous run by the men in charge.

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    I brought this fact up a few weeks ago.

    They just get so many more free kicks at their home games than any other club. It really is a joke that the umpires can be swayed that regularly by the crowd.

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    • Author

    I brought this fact up a few weeks ago.

    They just get so many more free kicks at their home games than any other club. It really is a joke that the umpires can be swayed that regularly by the crowd.

    I just looked up the Dockers stats. They are worse off with us with a negative score of 200. So their home crowd don't achieve the same as the Eagles crowd. Confusing isn't it?

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    The numbers don't seem to add up. Eagles +1184, MFC -485, 1669 differential overall. ?

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    While waiting for trade information I did a little research into the free kick count (for and against) and was flabbergasted at the difference between West Coast and the non pampered Demons. Actually, I was not only shocked but annoyed that there could be such a big difference between us and them. We know of course that there are many 'duckers' in their team but surely this doesn't explain the huge discrepancy.

    Over the last 10 seasons Eagles have received 4768 frees FOR as against 3584 paid AGAINST them. A difference in their favour of 752 frees! In all of the 10 seasons West Coast had been ahead in the free kick count.

    Melbourne, on the other hand, has received just 3701 frees and had 4186 against. A difference of NEGATIVE 115.( That's an overall difference of 867). So what is going on here? Are we breaking the rules or are the umps being influenced by the vocal crowd at Subiaco or what?

    In my search I could find no other team that could in anyway rival the Eagles. They sure have been given a marvellous run by the men in charge.

    I agree entirely with your point, but I worry about your math skills.

    4768 - 3584 = 1184

    3701 - 4186 = -485

    Thus WC have a comparative advantage of 1669 free kicks over us over your ten year sample.

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    Back in the 50's & 60's The Dees got the favour of most umpires. Although back then there was just one field umpire.

    But we had Alan Nash and Bob Nunn.

    You could almost chalk in a win if Alan Nash got us, Bob Nunn had a little less average.

    Jack Irving was a toss of the coin.

    So nothing really has changed over the years.

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    Wasnt there a WA umpy in the Grand Final? Didnt help em much there....hehe.

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    I tend to agree they get the rub of the green. Walker was dragged off it in the 10 yard square a few years ago that should have cost WCE a Prelim. As it was Carlton who were the victims, didn't care much at the time. Same with North in recent Prelim there - decisive decisions went West.

    Your stats warrant further scrutiny.

    If there is a 1600 differential over 10 seasons that is 160 annually.

    Most of the past decade they have been "better" than us; three GF and a flag v well....

    0ver a season 160 FF translates to 7 a game. So if 50 frees were awarded in a game - maybe they would get 28, we receive 21. Generally better teams get more frees cos they are more skilled. Poorer sides less so, infringe more.

    Frees aren't meant to be 50/50 in a match.

    Agree, the critical ones appear to go their way.

    Your Freo stats are interesting.

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    You watch Geelongs Sky-rocket next year with both Selwood boys there.

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    • Author

    I agree entirely with your point, but I worry about your math skills.

    4768 - 3584 = 1184

    3701 - 4186 = -485

    Thus WC have a comparative advantage of 1669 free kicks over us over your ten year sample.

    To arrive at the figure of 752, I added up the difference for each year,e.g. 2015 461for 376 against = 85, 2014 382 for 335 against = 47 and so on. I agree and so does my calculator, that the figures you quoted are correct. A mathematical puzzle? I am a retired teacher but mathematics was not my forte.

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    • Author

    I tend to agree they get the rub of the green. Walker was dragged off it in the 10 yard square a few years ago that should have cost WCE a Prelim. As it was Carlton who were the victims, didn't care much at the time. Same with North in recent Prelim there - decisive decisions went West.

    Your stats warrant further scrutiny.

    If there is a 1600 differential over 10 seasons that is 160 annually.

    Most of the past decade they have been "better" than us; three GF and a flag v well....

    0ver a season 160 FF translates to 7 a game. So if 50 frees were awarded in a game - maybe they would get 28, we receive 21. Generally better teams get more frees cos they are more skilled. Poorer sides less so, infringe more.

    Frees aren't meant to be 50/50 in a match.

    Agree, the critical ones appear to go their way.

    Your Freo stats are interesting.

    You mentioned how better teams get more frees. I took a look at Hawthorn - 4527 for 4848 against a negative score of -321. Hope my maths is correct this time.

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    Though stats don't tell the whole story. In reality its not how many free's you get, it wheres on the field and when. The recent North prelim is a pure example, swung the momentum of the game completely in WC's favour. Free against play in front of goal.

    We tend to never get those, just useless one's around the square which is really neutral space on the ground.

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    I tend to agree they get the rub of the green. Walker was dragged off it in the 10 yard square a few years ago that should have cost WCE a Prelim. As it was Carlton who were the victims, didn't care much at the time. Same with North in recent Prelim there - decisive decisions went West.

    Your stats warrant further scrutiny.

    If there is a 1600 differential over 10 seasons that is 160 annually.

    Most of the past decade they have been "better" than us; three GF and a flag v well....

    0ver a season 160 FF translates to 7 a game. So if 50 frees were awarded in a game - maybe they would get 28, we receive 21. Generally better teams get more frees cos they are more skilled. Poorer sides less so, infringe more.

    Frees aren't meant to be 50/50 in a match.

    Agree, the critical ones appear to go their way.

    Your Freo stats are interesting.

    Agree with the thrust of your post radar, however for all games this year the average number of frees paid was 36 (35.76).

    So with the Eagles at +7, that translates to a 21-14 or 22-15 type result. 50% more frees. Every game.

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    Yep they do get the rub of the green at home. But.

    Over that ten year period they have been premiers and runners up so have been at the pointy end of the ladder and usually those teams do get more frees.

    Factor in they had Judd and he got lots of frees due to every one trying to stop him, also cousins and Kerr. And then they had their duckers, especially Hams and Selwood raising his arm.

    To compare to us who have been at the bottom

    The whole time with sub par players who don't receive frees and then some like Matt Jones who will see a person already tackled to the ground and fall on their back or head, it's not that difficult to believe.

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    Without the draft and priority picks, Hawthorn wouldn't be where they are now.

    I really hate these threads, there seems to be about a dozen of them floating around here all written by people who don't understand the system at all.

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    We are despised in AFL circles.

    They are biased and need a good reeming.

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    Yep they do get the rub of the green at home. But.

    Over that ten year period they have been premiers and runners up so have been at the pointy end of the ladder and usually those teams do get more frees.

    Factor in they had Judd and he got lots of frees due to every one trying to stop him, also cousins and Kerr. And then they had their duckers, especially Hams and Selwood raising his arm.

    To compare to us who have been at the bottom

    The whole time with sub par players who don't receive frees and then some like Matt Jones who will see a person already tackled to the ground and fall on their back or head, it's not that difficult to believe.

    The stats don't back that up.; If you look at a ladder of frees for and against it is very different from the ladder of wins/losses every year.

    Biffo is right the umps and the AFL need a good reeming.

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    Interesting to see stats for other interstate clubs.

    Hawthorn and North in Tassie.

    I reckon Sydney get an AFL sanctioned dream run in overall terms.

    96 GF - Dunkley

    O3 ~ Barry Hall in Prelim

    Academy

    COLA

    Jettas running goal against Pies in Prelim.

    Sydney must have ongoing success for marketing and TV rights.

    Anyway, like whinging cos you're not born into the Packer family. Get our own FD in order first.

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    • Author

    The stats don't back that up.; If you look at a ladder of frees for and against it is very different from the ladder of wins/losses every year.

    Biffo is right the umps and the AFL need a good reeming.

    Thought I would compile a free kick ladder(2006-2015) for everyone to see. A couple of surprises and non surprises here.

    FREE KICK LADDER

    1. West Coast Eagles 4768 frees for 4016 against- Difference +752

    2. North Melbourne 4482-4136 +346

    3. Carlton 4190-3968 +222

    4. Geelong 4756-4603 +153

    5, Port Adelaide 4445-4323 +122

    6. Richmond 3913-3861 +52

    7. Collingwood 4150-4112 +38

    8. Western Bulldogs 4181-4175 +6

    9. Adelaide 4104-4146 -42

    10. GWS* 1618-1666 -48

    11. Essendon 4046-4100 -54

    12. Gold Coast* 1901-1972 -71

    13. MELBOURNE 4071-4186 -115

    14. St Kilda 4236-4406 -170

    15. Brisbane 4094-4279 -185

    16. FREMANTLE 4249-4449 - 200

    17. HAWTHORN 4527-4848 -321

    18. SYDNEY 4464-4795 -331

    * Smaller sample taken

    Looks like Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle can still dominate without the umpires help. We cannot say the same about the Eagles though can we?

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    • Author

    I agree entirely with your point, but I worry about your math skills.

    4768 - 3584 = 1184

    3701 - 4186 = -485

    Thus WC have a comparative advantage of 1669 free kicks over us over your ten year sample.

    The figure of 3701 should have read 4071. Sorry.

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    That is interesting. Need a data analysis more skilled than me to interpret. I suspect North 2nd to Swans 18th over a decade comprising 22 games a season represents a normal distribution curve.

    As you said in opening post - WC are off the chart.

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