Will the Demons get pick 3?

[beelzebub 23,313]

Enlighten me with your reasons for this...

That you ask, means I cant

[rpfc 28,269]

What I don't get is that...

The AFL has come out and said "we'll notify teams within 24 hours of their compensation when they lose a player to FA"...

But then how is that consistent with the ruling that acquiring other FAs then waters down your compensation?

Could we not just let Frawley go, get awarded pick 3, then a day later sign Malceski as a FA?

I don't think they've thought this through...

And the watering down of compensation is currently the biggest impediment to FA working for the "weaker" clubs.

The AFL will let clubs know 'provisionally' on the condition they don't get any FAs in. We are the club that asked for this from what I have heard.

If we do not intend to bring any FAs in, we can know what Frawley will get us within 24 hours of him leaving.

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

My ignorant guess: we will get Pick 3 because, having denied us the PP, the AFL will be doing a bit of impression management. It's not that they're committed to equalisation - they're not - but that they're committed to appearing committed. Dudding us on the comp. pick would blow a hole in that.

[rpfc 28,269]

My ignorant guess: we will get Pick 3 because, having denied us the PP, the AFL will be doing a bit of impression management. It's not that they're committed to equalisation - they're not - but that they're committed to appearing committed. Dudding us on the comp. pick would blow a hole in that.

It's pure PR management.

We will get Pick 3.

[Moonshadow 17,675]

If the AFLs formula for deciding upon FA compensation is the same water tight formula they use for deciding upon PPs we are f**ked.

Decisions on the run is their modus operandi.

[Jara 1,153]

This may sound drastic, but if we do not get pick 3 I will not follow, watch or have any further interest in the AFL....

By us missing out on this and the "Special assistance" request, IMO it just highlights that the AFL is NOT interested in making this competition equal to all clubs.

That's kind of how I feel right now. Been a supporter for fifty years, member for 20, yelled my pathetic support at hundreds of games, but the divide is so entrenched, it all seems hopeless now. Never seen a premiership, dont think i ever will, wonder why I bother. Finals were a snore, totally predictable. If they dare give us pick 20....

That said - I'm looking at my membership renewal form on the desk and I'm thinking: oh well, where there's life.....maybe one more year.

My main pleasure in footy these days comes from a) Demonland, and b) watching the Bombers crash and burn. 2000 was the only Grand Final I've ever been to. Karma.

[beelzebub 23,313]

Billy, if I may be so bold as to ask...Believe. We will have pick 3. A lot of nay -saying elsewhere is grandstanding and chest puffing by some Wallies for their own crowds. Evangelisitc preaching to their choirs as it were

Machsy.. we will do only ONE FA action...that is to reap what Chip has sown. Any other deals should they arise with FA's will be done with throw away picks. We have learnt

On a different not I would think its entirely possible , indeed probable , that the AFL WILL act politically in its thinking towards us. It always seems to act to do things in a manipulatitve manner, its just it doesnt always get it right , so in that light I can understand the hesitiency of some to think we might benefit. i.e the league stuffs it up.

Some of my thinking goes along the lines of what he League has done recently to help us along. Jackson, Roos , come to mind. They ( AFL ) know these men cant actually do the playing so we need some players also. Only so many ways you can do that.

Pick 3 for Chip isnt really charity as some other clubs may espouse its pretty close to the mark given where we actually are on the ladder and how the 'system" of the so called formula works. First you do X then apply to Y , this being the finishing position of said club.

I think RPFC would agree we almost cant end up with band 2, it if pans out as expected 500 thereabouts 4-5 years must return band 1, We are 17th with pick two therefore compo is pick 3.

Set in concrete ? maybe not. Stuck in tar might be closer to it as the league really cant move far from its own design.

Back to politics... denied PP2013 because Hogan and Clark coming on together with wonderful kiddies..(and shhh that T word) That went well

denied Special Assistance Pick 2014 because ?........who the f knows really....Not popular amongst certain ex hawthorn - pro(lol) equalisation ppl

2014..part reason for 2013 denial walks for zilch. 2014 Hogan plays 0 games. and Chip does a runner.

Id be gobsmacked if the league couldnt see it as a cheap slight of hand to 'ensure' what is rightfully ours does actually get delivered...its practically a no cost to them gesture that helps us..... Sppppppessssshhhallllll Assistance eh Peter

[dazzledavey36 54,379]

Knowing our luck no.

[beelzebub 23,313]

If the AFLs formula for deciding upon FA compensation is the same water tight formula they use for deciding upon PPs we are f**ked.

Decisions on the run is their modus operandi.

they are and very rubbery. There MO is to facilitate what suits them. They helped ( big time ) Melbourne get back on track. Are they going to risk that and have another basket case to deal with. Might be easier to concentrate on other Rogue clubs and let us get on with it. Pick 3

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,363]

I am expecting a big kick in the guts when the best side takes one of the best players of the worst side for free on a modest contract that leaves us with a second rounder. Great system.

Hawks have the same salary cap as us. We lost Clark which freed up a heap of cap space. We could have offered him heaps but chose not to. Compare The two lists, he will most likely sign for less to play for them. Our club has been mismanaged, we don't know what pick we've got yet. If we land Frost he is in the same age bracket as thee rest of our young crop.

[Felix 92]

Lets all hope its a long and lucrative contract. If that's the case then MFC should receive a BAND 1 compo pick... Which would be the first pick after our first round selection..

I hope some CEO's and trade commentators understand this, and the AFL just say MFC was given pick 3 for Frawley... MFC will be given a BAND 1 compensation is applicable.

[Breggsy 123]

I think we deserve pick 3 but knowing our luck we will get a second rounder.

Sounds about right - frawley and clark leave us for top 4 clubs and we get compensated with pick 20 and lumumba

[Return to Glory 8,412]

My ignorant guess: we will get Pick 3 because, having denied us the PP, the AFL will be doing a bit of impression management. It's not that they're committed to equalisation - they're not - but that they're committed to appearing committed. Dudding us on the comp. pick would blow a hole in that.

I'm not entirely sure that they care tbh. What I will say, (and not for the first time, I know) is that Mark Evans is an overly suntanned, Hawthorn loving, smug ponce who has put away any sense of impartiality as he imparts his wishes upon the AFL commission.

[Pates 9,660]

Until we have pick 3 in our hands I will always have the nagging feeling we'll get screwed, theoretically it'll all come down to his contract so let's home the Chip is asking for the big $$$.

[Return to Glory 8,412]

Until we have pick 3 in our hands I will always have the nagging feeling we'll get screwed, theoretically it'll all come down to his contract so let's home the Chip is asking for the big $$$.

The cynic in me wonders whether he'll get to Hawthorn on a relatively reduced contract which will allow Evans to use that as a reason for a lesser pick. I actually think we are getting to the stage where supporters of at least three or four clubs will feel completely disenfranchised. We now have a horrible, untenable situation where, before the season even starts, only four, possibly five teams out of 18 can win it. And those that may replace them are recent constructs created by the AFL. Ludicrous. Go Dees.

[dee-luded 2,959]

Me too.

I don't think that we are going to get pick 3.

I am more hopeful that the afl will make something up so we receive a mid first rounder.

Failing that, pick 19 it is.

Your not from the MCC are you andrew?

[dee-luded 2,959]

The cynic in me wonders whether he'll get to Hawthorn on a relatively reduced contract which will allow Evans to use that as a reason for a lesser pick. I actually think we are getting to the stage where supporters of at least three or four clubs will feel completely disenfranchised. We now have a horrible, untenable situation where, before the season even starts, only four, possibly five teams out of 18 can win it. And those that may replace them are recent constructs created by the AFL. Ludicrous. Go Dees.

We could all do a Honkers Kong protest, & take over the middle of the City & the 'G'.

[SaberFang 7,151]

I'm pretty sure the other clubs know we're getting pick 3 so they're just kicking up a stink to get compensation scrapped altogether.

Whether that's a disaster or not depends on how we go next year. Keep in mind we pulled out of talks with Malceski because we didn't want to lose pick 3. That situation might change if all we get is pick 20. I doubt we would've pulled out of talks if there was a chance we weren't getting pick 3.

[The Chazz 4,077]

That you ask, means I cant

Here's what we know;

- Frawley wants to go to a team to play finals, first and foremost before financials are considered (see below)

What we think we know;

- Geelong offered him around $500k a year for around 4 years (has to be close to accurate - that is a well known "cap" that they play decent players, with very few on more than that)

- Fremantle offered him a lot more, but he declined

- Melbourne would most likely offered him more as well

- The AFL have indicated that we would get Band 1 compensation, which, if no contracts had been signed prior, would be on an expected value, as well as the potential contract we offered him (ie if we told the AFL we offered him $650k a year but he's going elsewhere, then it's a pretty easy thing for the AFL to estimate)

What does that tell me;

- Frawley is clearly weiighing up his options between Geelong and Hawthorn

- Money isn't the driving factor (he rejected Freo and our offer which I'm sure would've been more than Geelong's at least)

- He has to decide if he sees a better future at Geelong or Hawthorn. I would imagine that most on here would prefer to play the next 4 years with the Brown and Yellow.

- My line of thinking (base on the previous point I made) is that Hawthorn's offer wouldn't need to match and/or beat Geelong. They are a more appealing destination, especially if he is aiming for a flag, as opposed to a finals appearance. Therefore, they could get away with offering $400k-$500k a year for 4 years, and it would be still a reasonable offer

Conclusion;

The AFL has most likely indicated the compensation we should get based on figures we've thrown at Frawley, based on media reports, and the expectation that more sides would chase his services. In theory, they'd be 100% accurate. In reality, if he refused Geelong's contract of $500k pa to head to Hawthorn, there's no rule to say that it has to be for more money. This could have an impact on the level of compensation we receive. However, as I said earlier, I have a feeling that Hawthorn and Frawley agreed to terms late last year, where his value to both teams was a lot higher than this year, and think the contract may in fact be high enough to warrant Band 1. This is what I am hoping for as it will cleary ensure he is worth Band 1 compensation.

Final conclusion;

I think we will get Band 1 as I believe he agreed last year to sign with Hawthorn, and the dollar value will be enough to get us to Band 1. As I am basing that view on nothing at all, I have to take in to consideration that he has only been negotiating with parties this year, and his value would have taken a signficant hit.

There you go B59, have I explained my observations over the past 12 months enough for you?

You know no more than I. Accept it then your opinion on this topic will be more of an interest to me.

[Dockett 32 1,239]

On the back of our 'isolated' penalty for tanking, Gils first crack at anything major, I just don't think the AFL would be silly enough to stick their chin out again and deny pick three in this instance. People can clearly see the ongoing concessions 'bend over' for the new and existing interstate franchises. Hawks got band one for Buddy and end so should we. Anything less is unjust manipulation and be strike two for Gil.

Far better result is for AFL to do the right thing , be seen to being fair and square the ledger with us somewhat.

[beelzebub 23,313]

You know no more than I. Accept it then your opinion on this topic will be more of an interest to me.

None of us KNOW anything as such other than he has now left. That I agree. That he was ever going to stay ( not suggesting you thought so ) was never a consideration of mine. My gut feeling was he was gone for a long time. This whole year has been a charade..a poor one at that.

I dont think he ever really considered Freo. but it was a nice weekend away and probably massaged his ego to hear Ross out..Cost him nothing.

I dont quite understand why he would go to the poos for less. Immediately more than one club show any genuine interest his stocks climb. Geelong are notorious for paying less than some others might. ( well done them btw) I dont think hawthorn were ever in the picture until now. But that might change things for sure.

As to what we offered... interesting to consider. Im going to take the view that PJ and Roos arent dunces. I reckon ( warning..opinion only ) that once they got the idea that Chip WAS gone and I think they were wise as early as Roos coming on board. And Roos would have been watching for months prior that the best thing for the team is to get best value out of Chip walking. Dont think for a moment that the club hasnt been playing a game of its own.

When Roos came on board he signaled change. He also said hed hold fire a little til he 'evaluated the players' for himself. I think in reality he had many well and truly figured out just wanted to see how things actually unfolded...Kept handing out the rope sts.

If Roos had been thinking Chip was staying Chip would have been the foundation pillar for our defence . He was anything but.

As to our offer. I think we deliberately played low ball on this knowing full well it would never receive any real consideration. if you I and others can sit here and ponder what contracts are worth then you can bet Roos PJ Mahoney etc do as well and they will KNOW what the market really does as they are part of it and have 1st hand knowledge...plus better industry spies than you and I.

Id seriously doubt Chips going anywhere for under 500 pa. The length of actual contract, the one the compo is based upon might be an interesting variable ( well of course it IS , but to all of us a curiosity ). Id be surprised personally if more than 4 .

My view in summary:

Chip was gone from about mid last season. well about 90% ...tipping point came later

Chip will , I think ,still go to Geelong

Contract 4years ( possibly 5th kicker ) at or around 500k pa

Compo Pick 3

[What 18,810]

to use a term from the great Terry Wallace, pick 3 is 'locked and loaded'

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,363]

Weren't the Hawks confirmed this morning?

[beelzebub 23,313]

Weren't the Hawks confirmed this morning?

as interested..or preferred ?

[Wilson7 2,663]

SEN said he will be going to Hawthorn for 450k a season. If thats true, which i doubt, we can kiss pick 3 goodbye

Weren't the Hawks confirmed this morning?