AFL Round 15

[45HG 1,539]

ROUND 15

A cracker of a round, let’s get our teeth into it!

Carlton v Collingwood

Form: Around the mark v Poor

Head to Head: Split the last 4

Blues’ favour: They have been close all year. Never losing a match by more than 22 points, Carlton have pushed the teams above them and mostly beaten the teams below them. On their last are enough players to do damage if given enough time and space and they played very well against the Pies in round 2. A lot will be on Walker/Waite.

Pies’ favour: They love being the underdogs. Potentially, there are some big ins for the Pies bolstering most areas of the field. Ball back is big, Reid coming in with Krakeour could be trouble for the Blues. Collingwood are only near their best when all 22 players buy in - and what better time than Friday night footy against their hated rivals?

Verdict: Tough! Collingwood defenders will need to work as a unit. Essendon showed that if you play off your opponent and drop into space you can make the Blues mids pay - however given time to deliver, the Blues midfielders can hit targets with ease. You get the feeling that both teams will get a run-on at some point and it could be about who gets the better run towards the finish. Ball, Pendlebury and Swan will love the big stage and I feel this will be where they give their last yelp for they year. I’ve thought Carlton all week but now seem to think Collingwood will get the points as that’s what they do.

Tip: Collingwood by 11

G.W.S. v Western Bulldogs

Form: Trash and Trash

Head to Head: Dogs with the only win.

Giants’ favour: They’ll be up and about for this one. It could be their best chance for a win this year and they’ve won previously on this ground.

Dogs’ favour: Whilst they’re terrible, we saw (yet again!) that their experienced players can turn a game so quickly. Boyd, Cooney, Griffen, Minson, Murphy and Gia form a strong nucleus and can turn a game quickly.

Verdict: A strange match. People talk up the Dogs’ kids, and that’s fine, but the players that really kept them in it last week were Gia, Murphy, Griffen, Boyd, Cooney and Minson. When the older guys bow out there’s not a lot else to crow about - the Dogs look in a world of pain. It must also be said that the Giants, from round 6, have been disgustingly bad. They’ve gone 0-7 and their losses have been by 135, 83, 100, 94, 59, 75 and 86. An average of 90 points. Their kids aren’t clicking and poor Cameron is looking lonely and frustrated. I’d have to lean with the experience and hunger of the Dogs, but the Giants should definitely be up for this and could be hard to keep down if they get a run on.

Tip: Dogs by 14

North Melbourne v Richmond

Form: OK v Very Good

Head to Head: North with 3 of the last 4

Roos’ favour: They’re so much better than they’ve been. Their season died when they rolled over against the Suns and it’ll be telling how they go about their business for the rest of the season. At their best they’d be a very good match for the Tigers - at their worst this year they’d be a good match for them for 3 and a half quarters. With Harvey, Petrie and Thomas running around they’re always capable of a dangerous outing and they love Etihad.

Tigers’ favour: Impeccable form, the Tigers finally seem capable of winning the games they should win. In a way, they remind me of Melbourne 2006ish - not good enough against the top teams but decent enough against lower teams. The Tigers play with flair and aggression but also look very well organised at the back.

Verdict: This will be close. This could be big. Richmond are in better form than North with more to play for, but I also get the feeling that this is the kind of game that North have been building to win all season. So close so many times, they’d love nothing more than to pull down a team gunning for the top-8. I feel the midfields are reasonably well matched - essentially blue collar players that niggle and nudge to get ahead with good attack on the footy. Both forwardlines are pretty evenly matched but Richmond probably have the advantage in the backline. I think this could be a shootout and should be great viewing. Overall, I think the Roos will finally get over the line.

Tip: Roos by 7

Brisbane v Gold Coast

Form: Strange v Fading

Head to Head: Lions with the last 4 - with the last two under two goals.

Lions’ favour: They should have too many experienced players for the Suns. In season 2013, Brisbane have never really hit their straps. In between great wins, they’ve shown some promise but have been largely a massive disappointment. They love this ground and it’ll be interesting to see how they approach this game as favourites.

Suns’ favour: They’ve rolled Brisbane before at this ground and have been amazing to watch this year. They slingshot so well from half back and are so good around clearances. A lack of polish and defensive nous has let them down in patches and I fear may continue to do so here.

Verdict: This promises to be a close game for the most but I think Brisbane will pull away towards the end similar to Adelaide’s showing last round.

Tip: Lions by 27

Geelong v Hawthorn

Form: Very good v Very good

Head to Head: Cats with the last 10 - by 7, 2, 2, 31, 5, 19, 2, 9, 1 and 8. An average of 8.6 points.

Cats’ favour: They’re playing Hawthorn.

Hawks’ favour: The streak must end... surely?

Verdict: What more can be said about this game than has already been said? Two great sides go at it once again on the big stage. Geelong are nothing short of incredible. They’re the best attacking team in the comp and showed last week they can be the best defensive side. Adaptable, skillful, creative and hard - they’re difficult to stop. Hawthorn probably haven’t been setting themselves for this game in my opinion. They’re not the sort of side to put a team above them and I think setting themselves particularly for Geelong would give them that idea. This should be a cracking contest and I find it hard to see either team winning by much more than the average margin.

Tip: Hawks by 9

Adelaide v West Coast

Form: Average v Average

Head to head: Split the last 6

Crows’ favour: Got a big win on the weekend. It may have “only” been Gold Coast, but that’s the kind of game Adelaide have been dropping this year. It could be great for their confidence and they could revel in front of their hometown fans. We saw the influence they can have during Port’s performance.

Eagles’ favour: Who knows? So much talent, so little cohesion. I feel they’ve tried to change their gamestyle this year and it simply hasn’t worked. I wonder if the players will be given a little more freedom this round. They have an array of goal kicking talent but simply give up too many scores. Also - who’d have thought that they’d be glad to get away from Patersons? I’m not sure what the opposite of a fortress is - but Patersons has become that for the boys in blue and yellow.

Verdict: Yet another strange one. I think the Eagles will have too many scoring options and should be able to nullify the Crows. They lead Port at this ground by 41 earlier in the year and I think they’ll relish in the space provided.

Tip: Eagles by 17

Melbourne v Sydney

Form: Improving v Imposing

Head to Head: The last 3 read 1-1-1. Swans with 5 before that.

Dees’ favour: There’s nothing to lose, the players are finally playing with flair and freedom and it is our home ground. Jack Watts is finally looking the player many have hoped and guys like Jimmy T are looking comfortable in Senior footy. Expected to lose big this round, the Dees strangely have a similar team to the side that spanked and drew with Sydney only 2 years ago.

Swans’ favour: A setback and a fadeout aside, the Swans have been in dominate form and should look forward to smashing an immensely inferior midfield. Kurt Tippett has looked immense and potentially has the ability to drag the Swans to back to back grand finals.

Verdict: Melbourne should show more spark than they have for much of the year but will be found wanting through the midfield and K.T. will have a wealth of supply.

Tip: Swans by 57

Fremantle v St Kilda

Form: Great v Terrible

Head to Head: Dockers won the last but Saints won the 8 before that.

Dockers’ favour: They’re a much better side playing at home with everything still to play for.

Saints’ favour: Only 8 rounds left.

Verdict: Yuck. St Kilda could struggle to score. Literally. Fremantle showed how hard they can be to score against when they faced a much better team in North Melbourne a fortnight ago. Conceding only 9 scoring shots, they will be fuming over their performance against the Cats. Look for Freo to do a job.

Tip: Dockers by 73

Essendon v Port Adelaide

Form: Against the odds v Ditto

Head to Head: Bombers with the last 3, Port with the previous 6

Bombers’ favour: They continue to play tough, consistent, backs against the wall footy. I suppose some of the players figure this could be their last few weeks of footy and they play with the arrogance of what you’d expect an Essendon team to do when they want to tell the rest of the world to stick it. Jobe is immense and he’s carrying the rest of the team with him.

Power’s favour: They don’t mind playing the Bombers and they’re pretty good at Etihad - regularly putting in plucky performances against superior teams at the venue. Similar to Essendon, they’re playing tough, contested footy and are much better for the run on.

Verdict: Essendon should be too big and too strong for the Power. It won’t be a blow out but I think the Bombers will have their number for most of the afternoon.

Tip: Essendon by 26

Match of the Round: How could you choose?!? Carlton Collingwood is always huge - especially at 8th v 9th. Richmond North show two equally matched sides going toe to toe. A Queensland derby. 16th v 18th playing for pride. 10th vs 11th fighting for the chance to keep their seasons alive. 3rd against 7th. Oh yeah - and 1st against 2nd!!!

Upset of the Round: As above! Of the 9 matches, the only two certainties I can see are Sydney and Freo. Immense.

Thrashing of the Round: Freo v St Kilda

[Tracca 806]

PMed you mate check your inbox

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

You are right 45HG it is a cracking round

Brilliant write up too. Thankyou. Won't have to bother with any of the commercial summaries

[[email protected] 101]

ROUND 15

A cracker of a round, let’s get our teeth into it!

Carlton v Collingwood

Form: Around the mark v Poor

Head to Head: Split the last 4

Blues’ favour: They have been close all year. Never losing a match by more than 22 points, Carlton have pushed the teams above them and mostly beaten the teams below them. On their last are enough players to do damage if given enough time and space and they played very well against the Pies in round 2. A lot will be on Walker/Waite.

Pies’ favour: They love being the underdogs. Potentially, there are some big ins for the Pies bolstering most areas of the field. Ball back is big, Reid coming in with Krakeour could be trouble for the Blues. Collingwood are only near their best when all 22 players buy in - and what better time than Friday night footy against their hated rivals?

Verdict: Tough! Collingwood defenders will need to work as a unit. Essendon showed that if you play off your opponent and drop into space you can make the Blues mids pay - however given time to deliver, the Blues midfielders can hit targets with ease. You get the feeling that both teams will get a run-on at some point and it could be about who gets the better run towards the finish. Ball, Pendlebury and Swan will love the big stage and I feel this will be where they give their last yelp for they year. I’ve thought Carlton all week but now seem to think Collingwood will get the points as that’s what they do.

Tip: Collingwood by 11

G.W.S. v Western Bulldogs

Form: Trash and Trash

Head to Head: Dogs with the only win.

Giants’ favour: They’ll be up and about for this one. It could be their best chance for a win this year and they’ve won previously on this ground.

Dogs’ favour: Whilst they’re terrible, we saw (yet again!) that their experienced players can turn a game so quickly. Boyd, Cooney, Griffen, Minson, Murphy and Gia form a strong nucleus and can turn a game quickly.

Verdict: A strange match. People talk up the Dogs’ kids, and that’s fine, but the players that really kept them in it last week were Gia, Murphy, Griffen, Boyd, Cooney and Minson. When the older guys bow out there’s not a lot else to crow about - the Dogs look in a world of pain. It must also be said that the Giants, from round 6, have been disgustingly bad. They’ve gone 0-7 and their losses have been by 135, 83, 100, 94, 59, 75 and 86. An average of 90 points. Their kids aren’t clicking and poor Cameron is looking lonely and frustrated. I’d have to lean with the experience and hunger of the Dogs, but the Giants should definitely be up for this and could be hard to keep down if they get a run on.

Tip: Dogs by 14

North Melbourne v Richmond

Form: OK v Very Good

Head to Head: North with 3 of the last 4

Roos’ favour: They’re so much better than they’ve been. Their season died when they rolled over against the Suns and it’ll be telling how they go about their business for the rest of the season. At their best they’d be a very good match for the Tigers - at their worst this year they’d be a good match for them for 3 and a half quarters. With Harvey, Petrie and Thomas running around they’re always capable of a dangerous outing and they love Etihad.

Tigers’ favour: Impeccable form, the Tigers finally seem capable of winning the games they should win. In a way, they remind me of Melbourne 2006ish - not good enough against the top teams but decent enough against lower teams. The Tigers play with flair and aggression but also look very well organised at the back.

Verdict: This will be close. This could be big. Richmond are in better form than North with more to play for, but I also get the feeling that this is the kind of game that North have been building to win all season. So close so many times, they’d love nothing more than to pull down a team gunning for the top-8. I feel the midfields are reasonably well matched - essentially blue collar players that niggle and nudge to get ahead with good attack on the footy. Both forwardlines are pretty evenly matched but Richmond probably have the advantage in the backline. I think this could be a shootout and should be great viewing. Overall, I think the Roos will finally get over the line.

Tip: Roos by 7

Brisbane v Gold Coast

Form: Strange v Fading

Head to Head: Lions with the last 4 - with the last two under two goals.

Lions’ favour: They should have too many experienced players for the Suns. In season 2013, Brisbane have never really hit their straps. In between great wins, they’ve shown some promise but have been largely a massive disappointment. They love this ground and it’ll be interesting to see how they approach this game as favourites.

Suns’ favour: They’ve rolled Brisbane before at this ground and have been amazing to watch this year. They slingshot so well from half back and are so good around clearances. A lack of polish and defensive nous has let them down in patches and I fear may continue to do so here.

Verdict: This promises to be a close game for the most but I think Brisbane will pull away towards the end similar to Adelaide’s showing last round.

Tip: Lions by 27

Geelong v Hawthorn

Form: Very good v Very good

Head to Head: Cats with the last 10 - by 7, 2, 2, 31, 5, 19, 2, 9, 1 and 8. An average of 8.6 points.

Cats’ favour: They’re playing Hawthorn.

Hawks’ favour: The streak must end... surely?

Verdict: What more can be said about this game than has already been said? Two great sides go at it once again on the big stage. Geelong are nothing short of incredible. They’re the best attacking team in the comp and showed last week they can be the best defensive side. Adaptable, skillful, creative and hard - they’re difficult to stop. Hawthorn probably haven’t been setting themselves for this game in my opinion. They’re not the sort of side to put a team above them and I think setting themselves particularly for Geelong would give them that idea. This should be a cracking contest and I find it hard to see either team winning by much more than the average margin.

Tip: Hawks by 9

Adelaide v West Coast

Form: Average v Average

Head to head: Split the last 6

Crows’ favour: Got a big win on the weekend. It may have “only” been Gold Coast, but that’s the kind of game Adelaide have been dropping this year. It could be great for their confidence and they could revel in front of their hometown fans. We saw the influence they can have during Port’s performance.

Eagles’ favour: Who knows? So much talent, so little cohesion. I feel they’ve tried to change their gamestyle this year and it simply hasn’t worked. I wonder if the players will be given a little more freedom this round. They have an array of goal kicking talent but simply give up too many scores. Also - who’d have thought that they’d be glad to get away from Patersons? I’m not sure what the opposite of a fortress is - but Patersons has become that for the boys in blue and yellow.

Verdict: Yet another strange one. I think the Eagles will have too many scoring options and should be able to nullify the Crows. They lead Port at this ground by 41 earlier in the year and I think they’ll relish in the space provided.

Tip: Eagles by 17

Melbourne v Sydney

Form: Improving v Imposing

Head to Head: The last 3 read 1-1-1. Swans with 5 before that.

Dees’ favour: There’s nothing to lose, the players are finally playing with flair and freedom and it is our home ground. Jack Watts is finally looking the player many have hoped and guys like Jimmy T are looking comfortable in Senior footy. Expected to lose big this round, the Dees strangely have a similar team to the side that spanked and drew with Sydney only 2 years ago.

Swans’ favour: A setback and a fadeout aside, the Swans have been in dominate form and should look forward to smashing an immensely inferior midfield. Kurt Tippett has looked immense and potentially has the ability to drag the Swans to back to back grand finals.

Verdict: Melbourne should show more spark than they have for much of the year but will be found wanting through the midfield and K.T. will have a wealth of supply.

Tip: Swans by 57

Fremantle v St Kilda

Form: Great v Terrible

Head to Head: Dockers won the last but Saints won the 8 before that.

Dockers’ favour: They’re a much better side playing at home with everything still to play for.

Saints’ favour: Only 8 rounds left.

Verdict: Yuck. St Kilda could struggle to score. Literally. Fremantle showed how hard they can be to score against when they faced a much better team in North Melbourne a fortnight ago. Conceding only 9 scoring shots, they will be fuming over their performance against the Cats. Look for Freo to do a job.

Tip: Dockers by 73

Essendon v Port Adelaide

Form: Against the odds v Ditto

Head to Head: Bombers with the last 3, Port with the previous 6

Bombers’ favour: They continue to play tough, consistent, backs against the wall footy. I suppose some of the players figure this could be their last few weeks of footy and they play with the arrogance of what you’d expect an Essendon team to do when they want to tell the rest of the world to stick it. Jobe is immense and he’s carrying the rest of the team with him.

Power’s favour: They don’t mind playing the Bombers and they’re pretty good at Etihad - regularly putting in plucky performances against superior teams at the venue. Similar to Essendon, they’re playing tough, contested footy and are much better for the run on.

Verdict: Essendon should be too big and too strong for the Power. It won’t be a blow out but I think the Bombers will have their number for most of the afternoon.

Tip: Essendon by 26

Match of the Round: How could you choose?!? Carlton Collingwood is always huge - especially at 8th v 9th. Richmond North show two equally matched sides going toe to toe. A Queensland derby. 16th v 18th playing for pride. 10th vs 11th fighting for the chance to keep their seasons alive. 3rd against 7th. Oh yeah - and 1st against 2nd!!!

Upset of the Round: As above! Of the 9 matches, the only two certainties I can see are Sydney and Freo. Immense.

Thrashing of the Round: Freo v St Kilda

I think you have tipped FOUR winners. (three if our boys get up lol)...Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Sydney and Freo... Let's wait and see.. Remind me on Monday if/when I may be wrong...

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

This week is almost pin in the fixture time.

Adelaide, Blues and GC could all turn the tables

[DemonFrog 1,347]

Why am I looking forwrd to the Melbourne v Sydney game this week?

Go the Dees!

[Whispering_Jack 29,333]

The Bulldogs will test my theory about them playing out the season for draft position. Saints would have struggled with Riewoldt but without him, it could be very ugly although his loss is balanced a bit by Koschitzke also being out. Gold Coast lost half its team with Gary Jr being ruled out although it will test the rest of the talent in this team. Without the best player in the comp to contend with Beamer should have a day out and no doubt someone on 'Land will revive the thread about him being such a big loss. I would like Norf to make a bit of a run for the finals like they did last year. Of all of the contenders outside the 8, I reckon they might be a show if they can get their act together when things are tight late in a game. With the position of the Bombers in doubt, a 9th place finish could see a team make the finals. Go Port!

The game of the round is on tonight and if they break the Kennett curse (which I think they will), the Hawks will be strong flag favourites.

Then there's us and the Swans which will be a better contest than we thought it might be a month ago.

[45HG 1,539]

I think you have tipped FOUR winners. (three if our boys get up lol)...Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Sydney and Freo... Let's wait and see.. Remind me on Monday if/when I may be wrong...

8

[H_T 3,038]

Well tipped.

It was a cracking round, biggest attendance for a round apparently.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

May draft you in to tip for me in the family tipping comp. Copping a drumming by just about everyone this year.