The James Aish Thread

[H_T 2,941]

We've had plenty of South Australians play for us over the years, Todd Viney is one, and most have stayed, in fact apart from Thompson I can't off the top of my head think of any other.

We've had a history of drafting South Australians and some have come from famous football families like Aish but they have all pretty much stayed and had good careers with us.

Absolutely.

I like the look of Aish on the little I have seen of him, but that's all I've got to go on having read most comments here.

[ThreeOneSix 953]

The go home factor back to Adelaide isn't that great.

It's certainly not as strong as the WA go home factor.

We lost Scott Thompson and to hazard a guess, he'd be the best player to go home to SA in the past decade.

I could be wrong.

We apparently have strong ties to Aish's SANFL club, deep historical roots with the MFC.

Welcome home Jimmy Aish.

[Pennant St Dee 11,880]

The go home factor back to Adelaide isn't that great.

It's certainly not as strong as the WA go home factor.

We lost Scott Thompson and to hazard a guess, he'd be the best player to go home to SA in the past decade.

I could be wrong.

We apparently have strong ties to Aish's SANFL club, deep historical roots with the MFC.

Welcome home Jimmy Aish.

Brad Ebert probably the only other one I can think of

[Dr. Gonzo 22,828]

Apart from Toumpas who are these class mids you talk about?

Who ever we get needs to have class, good skills particularly by foot, good decision maker etc.

Morton, Grimes, Maric, Watts, Blease, Strauss, Trengove, Gysberts, Cook, Toumpas - all players taken as they had class/skill and potential rather than ready to go and runs on the board with perhaps a perceived lower ceiling.

Trade period logic, for ya.

We haven't had success with draftig classy mids, so give up on them...

Haha yeah, whatever. It's more a case of we already have those kinds of players on our list, we need some grunt to complement them and start winning the ball/clearances.

[Jordie_tackles 354]

Morton, Grimes, Maric, Watts, Blease, Strauss, Trengove, Gysberts, Cook, Toumpas - all players taken as they had class/skill and potential rather than ready to go and runs on the board with perhaps a perceived lower ceiling.

Haha yeah, whatever. It's more a case of we already have those kinds of players on our list, we need some grunt to complement them and start winning the ball/clearances.

Aish has the runs on the board, dominated his U18 age group and has graduated to playing SANFL reserves and acquitting himself equally well in that league.

[Demon3 2,541]

Toumpas like in class.. maybe bit quicker.

He is small though..

[Machsy 2,858]

Morton, Grimes, Maric, Watts, Blease, Strauss, Trengove, Gysberts, Cook, Toumpas - all players taken as they had class/skill and potential rather than ready to go and runs on the board with perhaps a perceived lower ceiling.

Haha yeah, whatever. It's more a case of we already have those kinds of players on our list, we need some grunt to complement them and start winning the ball/clearances.

You're so confused about what you're saying.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,828]

Aish has the runs on the board, dominated his U18 age group and has graduated to playing SANFL reserves and acquitting himself equally well in that league.

Trengove, Toumpas

You're so confused about what you're saying.

Don't respond to my posts anymore if you're just going to act like a moron.

[Machsy 2,858]

You should read the crap you're posting.

You say we already have enough classy mids on our list (!), when you've just listed Morton (gone), Maric (gone), Gysberts (gone) and Cook (CHF and gone).

Strauss (HBF).

Blease & Grimes (both really flankers, and who would categorise them as "class").

Then writing off Trengove (played out of position, underdone, and so highly rated by Port they tried to trade picks 8&9 to get him), and Toumpas (pick 4 coming off hip surgery, played 14 games in his 1st season).

Seriously man, get a clue.

You're obsessed with recruiting manchildren - it's embarrassing and it's wrong.

No entry level draftee should seriously be expected to contribute in his first season.

Some do, that's great, but that's not why you pick them.

[rjay 24,193]

Morton, Grimes, Maric, Watts, Blease, Strauss, Trengove, Gysberts, Cook, Toumpas - all players taken as they had class/skill and potential rather than ready to go and runs on the board with perhaps a perceived lower ceiling.

Haha yeah, whatever. It's more a case of we already have those kinds of players on our list, we need some grunt to complement them and start winning the ball/clearances.

We don't have any class mids on our list at the moment, Toumpas may step up to be one. I can understand your argument that we need more grunt but it can't be at the expense of class and none of the names you have mentioned could be considered class mids at present. some of them are no longer at the club.

My question was "who are the class mids at the club", I don't think we have any so drafting for them would also fill a gap in the list. A big gap.

I think a lot are underrating Aish, he is ready to go and he will play good footy in his first year. I'm not saying we take him but I am saying he is a very good player.

[Jordie_tackles 354]

Trengove, Toumpas

Don't respond to my posts anymore if you're just going to act like a moron.

Yes and? Aish has shown more than his counterparts, you said he is all potential he is less potential than other draft prospects in this years draft, he has played better than them at the U18, the champs and has exposed form against senior players. these are the facts.

[Mondê 525]

I will be highly disappointed if we waste another top 5 pick on an outside player. I believe you should all have a close look at the numbers captured by Champion Data over James Aish's junior career regarding his contested possession rate %, and it ain't pretty. We have him ranked 8th in the draft, with Kelly at 2. When questioned as to why they had him slipping outside the top 5 their response was damning: "Think Aish is a good player and a good user of the ball but we have looked at the correlation between low contested possession rate as a junior and eventual AFL output and if you're too 'outside' as a junior you will struggle to find the same amount of ball at AFL level. His CP rate falls in the same bracket as Cale Morton, Kane Lucas, Jimmy Toumpas and Andrew Gaff." For the record, I have wanted Kelly at the Dees since mid way through this year after covering some of his games for CD in the championships...poised and tough, can find the ball inside, as well as spread and use it outside. He's exactly what we need and don't be surprised if we go down the Kelly path on draft day.

[Machsy 2,858]

Fair enough.

Without seeing those stats, I'd have to go with Kelly then.

What I've seen of Aish, he doesn't look scared of contact, but against the bigger bodies he plays more outside out of necessity, and probably coaching. I also haven't seen him charge through many packs with the ball.

Will be interesting to see how his career pans out, but I think he'll be A LOT like Cotchin.

[ThreeOneSix 953]

Fair enough.

Without seeing those stats, I'd have to go with Kelly then.

What I've seen of Aish, he doesn't look scared of contact, but against the bigger bodies he plays more outside out of necessity, and probably coaching. I also haven't seen him charge through many packs with the ball.

Will be interesting to see how his career pans out, but I think he'll be A LOT like Cotchin.

Yeah, I'd go for Kelly as well, If Kelly played in the SANFL this year, he'd of torn it apart.

Aish was handy, looks classy, looks outside.

I think everyone is sleeping on Kelly, he is the standout of the draft.

Knightmare mentions on big footy that Kelly is too outside and won't transition to AFL - so everyone just rolls with that.

If Kelly won't transition because he is too outside - then what hope does Aish have? He is far more outside than Kelly IMO.

I think both have a lot of potential, but on exposed form and combine results, I'd lean towards Kelly.

Happy either way and would be also happy with Sheed or Crouch at 2.

[DeeSpencer 23,686]

I will be highly disappointed if we waste another top 5 pick on an outside player. I believe you should all have a close look at the numbers captured by Champion Data over James Aish's junior career regarding his contested possession rate %, and it ain't pretty. We have him ranked 8th in the draft, with Kelly at 2. When questioned as to why they had him slipping outside the top 5 their response was damning: "Think Aish is a good player and a good user of the ball but we have looked at the correlation between low contested possession rate as a junior and eventual AFL output and if you're too 'outside' as a junior you will struggle to find the same amount of ball at AFL level. His CP rate falls in the same bracket as Cale Morton, Kane Lucas, Jimmy Toumpas and Andrew Gaff." For the record, I have wanted Kelly at the Dees since mid way through this year after covering some of his games for CD in the championships...poised and tough, can find the ball inside, as well as spread and use it outside. He's exactly what we need and don't be surprised if we go down the Kelly path on draft day.

Question - are those numbers his contested possession for SANFL seniors (against men and often playing in an outside role) and at the under 18 champs where he was tagged and not back to his best form after shoulder surgery.

I'd like to see his contested possession numbers against players of his own age but then again I don't know how many games Aish has even played of SANFL under 18's in the last 2 years.

Might just be bias by recent memory but I think some of the South Australian kids in particular would benefit from less senior footy and more under 18 footy to really develop their game instead of just certain aspects that get focused on when they step up a level. Then again racking up 40 a week in the TAC isn't necessarily right either. I'm sure Tom Boyd would've loved the chance for a few weeks stretch of VFL this year if he wasn't injured.

[Mondê 525]

master - those numbers are strictly from his junior career + U/18 champs. CD don't capture SANFL stats, I would imagine his contested possession rate would be even lower in SANFL as, like you said, he would be playing a more outside role.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,828]

You should read the crap you're posting.

You say we already have enough classy mids on our list (!), when you've just listed Morton (gone), Maric (gone), Gysberts (gone) and Cook (CHF and gone).

Strauss (HBF).

Blease & Grimes (both really flankers, and who would categorise them as "class").

Then writing off Trengove (played out of position, underdone, and so highly rated by Port they tried to trade picks 8&9 to get him), and Toumpas (pick 4 coming off hip surgery, played 14 games in his 1st season).

Seriously man, get a clue.

You're obsessed with recruiting manchildren - it's embarrassing and it's wrong.

No entry level draftee should seriously be expected to contribute in his first season.

Some do, that's great, but that's not why you pick them.

First off I never said classy mids, I said we have often chosen the kids I the draft who look to have the class over some who seem a bit more raw but potentially have more of an impact straight away (such as Watts over NicNat, Cook over Darling, Toumpas over Wines).

Secondly I was saying some of those classy players are still on our list, not all of them. And when drafted thy were taken because they were seen to be high skilled options such as Strauss and Blease.

Thirdly where did I write off Trengove and Toumpas? I said they needed someone to help them out in the middle while they develop due to our dearth of bigger bodies in the middle and around the packs. Last year we chose Toumpas (class) over Wines (grunt) - that's fine I'm not unhappy with that decision but I think this year we need to opt for a bigger body to help out and complement the smaller guys and help Jones and Viney in the clinches. I would look at some of the guys Richmond has drafted like Conca, Vlastuin and Martin and think we need to get some guys like this in our team who can compete in the AFL and not just look good against third level players.

I have no obsession as you put it, I have a view that we need a well-rounded list and don't want to see us make the same mistakes as before when we had a team of Johntone, Yze, Bruce, Green etc skillful players who could beat weaker teams quite easily yet went to water against the better teams. What's embarrassing is your inability to comprehend ideas more complex than class v brawn, small v big.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Classy mid does not = outside mid

Outside mid = obsolete

[Dr. Gonzo 22,828]

I will be highly disappointed if we waste another top 5 pick on an outside player. I believe you should all have a close look at the numbers captured by Champion Data over James Aish's junior career regarding his contested possession rate %, and it ain't pretty. We have him ranked 8th in the draft, with Kelly at 2. When questioned as to why they had him slipping outside the top 5 their response was damning: "Think Aish is a good player and a good user of the ball but we have looked at the correlation between low contested possession rate as a junior and eventual AFL output and if you're too 'outside' as a junior you will struggle to find the same amount of ball at AFL level. His CP rate falls in the same bracket as Cale Morton, Kane Lucas, Jimmy Toumpas and Andrew Gaff." For the record, I have wanted Kelly at the Dees since mid way through this year after covering some of his games for CD in the championships...poised and tough, can find the ball inside, as well as spread and use it outside. He's exactly what we need and don't be surprised if we go down the Kelly path on draft day.

Good post mate, sums up what I was thinking and seems to back it up with stats. Could do with a few more paragraphs though

Can I ask where you got the CD stats/comments from?

Edited October 11, 2013 by Dr. Gonzo

[Mondê 525]

I work for CD as a casual employee capturing stats over the footy season weekends, but have contact with full time staff who write the AFL prospectus and write up the draft profiles. Post draft profiling, the general consensus was that Aish's contested possession numbers were a clone of the aforementioned players (Morton, Gaff, Toumpas, Lucas) all of whom struggled, or are struggling, to find their feet in the AFL. For numbers similar to this, take a look at the prospectus facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/AFLProspectus

[Earl Hood 5,875]

We may have some power mids already at the club and maybe they just need a plan and some development/coaching/encouragement, a bit of sheer class sometimes helps.

I wonder if you are on to something here. I look at the top clubs and the way they rapidly move the ball at stoppages. The likes of Mitchell and Lewis barely have the ball for a second before it is passed to someone else. You can't tackle them because the balls moved on. You don't need leg speed just clean and quick hands to get the ball and move it rapidly to an outside player. You need a system and a group of players who instinctively know how it works and where they need to be. You also need a couple of inside ball magnets. You could argue we have some of the basic ingredients but no systems.

For years we have watched Jamar and co win the tap outs to Maloney or Jones who grab the ball and take on the tacklers before we end up in another ball up. No sharpe movement of the ball at all, no system.

[rpfc 27,692]

I will add one thing to this argument - 'playing against men' also involves 'playing with men' and if the youngster in question is getting the ball on the outside because of bigger bodies getting it out to him then that negates the 'playing against men' argument entirely.

Judge them on whether they can get their own footy, no matter what level they play.

[DeeSpencer 23,686]

I will add one thing to this argument - 'playing against men' also involves 'playing with men' and if the youngster in question is getting the ball on the outside because of bigger bodies getting it out to him then that negates the 'playing against men' argument entirely.

Judge them on whether they can get their own footy, no matter what level they play.

That's not entirely true. Outside ball isn't a matter of just getting handballs out the back. Hard running that breaks lines, leading out into space etc would be much harder at senior level than junior level where the game is more open.

I just want to see the correct way of winning outside ball not the soft way. Take Brad Hill from Hawthorn who wins most of his footy outside, but he gets it through his high engine and speed to get on the end of plays. I don't think I've ever seen Brad Hill double round for a hand ball or lead right out to the half back flank for a sideways kick.

So that's how I'd break down Aish's game. Then his inside game you'd just have to compare his output to his potential and it's probably what you see on vision more than stats to do that.

The other reason I'd take notice in Aish if is his game standouts as a guy who turns contested ball into uncontested ball with scoring ability. Sam Mitchell does a lot of grunt work. But what he does even better is let Sewell or Lewis get first hands on the ball and uses his vision and dual sided ability to turn a hot handball into open uncontested play and a scoring opportunity. That's often harder to do than just winning the clearance. I wouldn't say no to a guy who can do that. I would say no to a guy who completely skirts the packs and gets a high percentage of ball from marks in the back 50 or handball receives when he's standing defensive side.

[rpfc 27,692]

Work harder and you can get uncontested possessions. That is an easy win next year as Roos gives the confidence. That will be where a huge improvement could see us back to where the 'pack' is.

But hard ball is won by a certain type of footy player and it would be good if we used ND2 on someone with that skill set. I am sure they will be a hard worker, but if they cannot win their own footy they shouldn't be taken in the first few picks.

Tupac Shakur.

(That's just the way it is)

[deanox 9,005]

I will be highly disappointed if we waste another top 5 pick on an outside player. I believe you should all have a close look at the numbers captured by Champion Data over James Aish's junior career regarding his contested possession rate %, and it ain't pretty.

...

Contested possession? Are you sure that stat is great as a measure of inside v outside?

Every time a long bomb into an unmanned forward line bounces around loose until Nick Maxwell jogs past and picks it up counts as a contested possession. The ball is free and therefore is "contested". It is also a loose ball get.

If I kick the ball 30m to a team mate who marks it without direct physical pressure that's an uncontested possession.

The stat that would better define "win his own ball" and "inside mid" would surely be "hard ball gets" which are possessions under physical pressure.

Perhaps a combination of the two stats ie players who get high CP but low loose ball gets, may be a better measure?

Are there stats on first possession (and/or first disposal)?

edit: not disputing your comments on aish, just trying to get a good handle on the stats.

Edited October 11, 2013 by deanox