AFL PROSPECTUS 2013 PREVIEW

[BLWNBA 1,123]

Hi all, just purchased the 2013 Prospectus and delved into their preview of our upcoming year. Fasinating stuff an a great read. I thought I'd post up the preview of us on here for those of you that haven't got a copy. Should bring forth some good discussion and formula based approach to reviewing and preview. Firstly let me say I'll just be 2013 list assement tonight, and will update over the next few days with the player previews/reviews.

Melbourne is currently paying a high price for botched draft picks. It ranks as the third worst midfield, with just one midfielder rated in the top 35% of the competition-ranked 18th (Jack Grimes). What makes this even more damning is the fact they have had 11 top 20 picks across six National Drafts between 2006-2011- two more than any other established club. No wonder they can't get the footy inside the 50! Three of those top-20 picks were recently shown the door, part of 12 changes made to thir primary list in the off season- the most in the competition. The Demons now have nine 'imported' players on their list- equal third most in the competition- eight of which have been introduced since Neeld arrived at the club. It's an unusual strategy for a list that was thought to be in the middle of a rebuild. So can these acquired players improve the midfield? Rodan is the only one to have played in the guts, with Byrnes another possibility. The club needs Viney and Toumpas to develop at light speed.

2013 list:

Defenders 12th

Midfield/Rucks 16th

Forwards: 13th

List quality: 13th

AFL LIST RATINGS THROUGH QUALITY

1 Hawthorn

2 West Coast Eagles

3 Sydney

4 Fremantle

5 Collingwood

6 Adelaide

7 Geelong

8 Essendon

9 Carlton

10 Richmond

11 North Melbourne

12 St. Kilda

13 MELBOURNE

14 Brisbane Lions

15 Western Bulldogs

16 Gold Coast

17 Port Adelaide

18 GWS 18

The Numbers Game - Game Styles

Melbourne had the third highest contested possession rate in the competition, received the second most-pressure and had the fourth highest secondary stoppage rate.

With the ball in hand the Demons played on more than any other team and kicked long the second-most. Unsurprisingly, Neeld brought Collingwood's ball movement patterns with him, playing the corridor the second least and the boundary the second-most in the competition.

Congestion

#3 Cont. Poss. Rate

#2 Pressure Recieved

#5 Stoppages

#4 Second Stoppage Rate

Ball use

#2 Kick Long %

#1 Mark Play On %

#18 Kick to Lead % (Fwd Half)

#17 Corridor Use

#2 Boundary Use

Playing Jenga with draft picks

One thing Melbourne has taught the footy world is that a heap of early draft picks doesn't guarantee success. You can compare it to a game of Jenga. You pick out the blocks and build it up, and at first you can promise there will be progress. But as the years went by at Melbourne, patience was tested. The tower started to look pretty flimsy.

In this team profile three years ago, loaded with the first two picks, we said there could be no more excuses. It's certainly a harsh game. If you don't get it right, down the track a crooked tower will appear for everyone to see. Since Melbourne last played finals football in 2006 it has had 12 top-20 picks. Judging now as a collective they have been an epic failure. The one pick the Demons traded was pick 12 in 2011 for Mitch Clark and at thus early stage that move appears to be a winner.

James Frawley earned All-Australian honours in 2010 but he is a key defender and not exactly a match winner. Jack Grimes finally produced a full season in 2012, but again he is a player that does most of his work behind the centre. Jack Watts improved last year when he was moved to defence, but he was drafted as a key forward and in that position he has delivered nothing.

In 2009 the Demons drafted Tom Scully and Jack Trengove at picks No.1 and No.2. Scully has moved onto the Giants and Trengove, despite being co-captain, had a year to forget by producing nothing like a pick No.2 of three years ago.

The next six names have been serious failures either due to injury or poor form, but mainly form. Cale Morton at pick No.4 in the 2007 National Draft has gone home to West Coast. James Strauss has played just 18 games in four seasons while Sam Blease has managed just 21 in the same time period. To think that Luke Shuey was drafted between those two, ouch!

Luke Tapscott hasn't stamped his authority on the competition and again his best work has been behind the centre, while Jordan Gysberts has made the Blues look like geniuses. Melbourne received pick 11 from Carlton for McLean with which it drafted Gysberts. He has been a major disappointment and has since crossed to North Melbourne. And finally Lucas Cook at pick 12 in 2010. He's already on the AFL scrapheap. Usually talls are given more than two years.

The common theme amongst the group is there isn't a player who's succeeded in the middle of the ground or forward of centre. All the success stories have been behind the centre- a much easier area to perform in.

The Dees have gone down a recycled path this season with Byrnes, Dawes, Pederson, Rodan and Gillies all joining the club, but is it the right thing to do? Only time will tell. Let's hope for Melbourne supporters' sake in five years we are talking about a flag or possible flag and not another rebuild.

It's a disappointing bunch and when Mark Neeld aimed to correct the 'crooked tower' last year, it all came tumbling down. Now it's set the Demons back big time, forcing them to re-gather the blocks and start rebuilding something that never really got going.

Over Correction

Dean Bailey got the sack after winning eight and eight and half games both in 2010 and 2011. Was it an overreaction to one shocking loss against Geelong at Simonds Stadium? Given what the club produced in 2012 it could be argued so. All the team's KPI's fell significantly. The Demons averaged 52 fewer disposals per game then the opposition (ranked 17th), 12 fewer contested possessions (ranked 16th), 41 fewer uncontested possessions (ranked 17th), six fewer clearances (ranked 18th) and 11 fewer inside 50s (ranked 16th).

Their stoppage work, in particular, was disastrous. They won first possession 37.9% of the time - 3.5% less than any other team - and a clearance 35.9% of the time - 2.1% lower than any other team. This is a serious issue and gets back to the lack of quality midfielders they have drafted.

Neeld would have had a plan in place. We assume he was teaching the players something. But what was it? It's impossible to pick up what it was from the statistics, but one thing that suggests whatever it was it was an over-correction. The strength under Bailey was the ability to move the footy, in particular the attacking midfield zone. Last year this completely fell away. Once inside 50 the Demons scored well, but from all other zones they were poor. They ranked 18th in disposals and 17th in time in possession differential. If you average 52 fewer possessions than the opposition each week than you wont win many games.

Positive Thinking

Amongst all the doom and gloom there were some positives for the Demons. Nathan Jones was clearly their best player of the season and won the B&F by 20 votes from Jack Grimes. Jones led the club in disposals, contested possessions, handball-receives, clearances, inside 50s, and score assists. He's a beauty Jones, but he shouldn't be a club's best midfielder.

While we banged on about all the top-20 draft failures earlier, in the 2010 NAB AFL Draft they found a bargain in Tom McDonald at pick 53. He finished third in the B&F and sixth in the NAB AFL Rising Star. He is a great interceptor and has the potential to be a great play-maker from defence. And finally Jeremy Howe. Again a good pick outside the top-20. He had a bigger highlights reel than Nic Naitanui and Cyril Rioli in 2012 and generally the 'must watch' moments involved sitting on an opponent's head. He is a gem and will prove extremely dangerous as a third tall next to Mitch Clark and Chris Dawes. We're sick of the negatives and so are the supporters. The Demon's need more positive stories in 2013.

List Summary

Players Listed 44

Primary Listed 40

Rookie Listed 4

Avg Age 23y 178d

Avg Games 48.6

Avg Height 187.9

Right Footers 33

Left Footers 7

Age Breakdown

Less than 21 - 9

21-24 - 20

25-29 -11

30 and over - 0

Games Played

Less than 25 - 19

25-49 - 5

50-99 - 8

100-149 - 6

150-199 - 2

200-299 - 0

300 and over - 0

Player Positions

Key Defender 5

General Defender 10

Ruck 5

Midfielder 13

Mid-Forward 2

General Forward 3

Key Forward 2

Drafted Via

National Draft 23

Pre-Season Draft 0

Rookie Elevation 5

Father/Son 1

Trades 4

Recycled 3

Uncontract/FA 2

Other 1

Initially Drafted At*

Pick 1-10 - 5

Pick 11-20 - 8

Pick 21-30 - 2

Pick 31-50 - 9

Over Pick 50 - 10

*NAB AFL Draft Only

Now what you lot have been waiting for - the Ranking from ELITE to Unknown

ELITE

Jack Grimes AVG 87.1

Above Average

Nathan Jones AVG 94.6

Colin Sylvia AVG 86.4

Jack Watts AVG 81.4

Mitchell Clark AVG 81.1

Cameron Pedersen AVG 77.0

James Frawley AVG 75.7

Jeremy Howe AVG 75.5

Joel Macdonald AVG 73.4

Colin Garland AVG 72.2

Average

Jack Trengove AVG 78.8

Mark Jamar AVG 78.2

Tom McDonald AVG 73.3

David Rodan AVG 71.8

Jordie McKenzie AVG 70.3

Chris Dawes AVG 67.4

Dan Nicholson AVG 66.2

Aaron Davey AVG 64.9

Lynden Dunn AVG 64.5

Below Average

Rohan Bail AVG 65.3

Jake Spencer AVG 63.5

James Sellar AVG 59.2

Tom Gillies AVG 58.3

Sam Blease AVG 54.9

Neville Jetta AVG 54.3

Luke Tapscott AVG 54.0

James Strauss AVG 50.0

Poor

Shannon Byrnes AVG 42.0

Unknown

Max Gawn AVG 54.9

Jack Fitzpatrick AVG 47.3

Michael Evans AVG 44.9

Josh Tynan AVG 28.0

Jimmy Toumpas

Jack Viney

Rory Taggert

Dean Kent

Troy Davis

Matt Jones

Dean Terlich

Dom Barry

Rookies

James Magner AVG 58.3

Thomas Couch AVG 45.1

Mitchell Clisby

Nathan Stark

THE PLAYERS

Rohan Bail - Midfielder - National '08 Pick 64 - Age: 24 - Ht: 183cm - Wt: 82kg

Bail finally established himself at AFL level last year by playing in a career-high 18 matches. He played a defensive forward role for much of the year, playing on the likes of Shannon Hurn and Jarrod Harbrow. Bail recored a poor kick rating and also recorded the worst scoring accuracy of any player to kick at least two goals at the club. He retained possession from only 52% of his kicks which was 10% below the competition average.

Dom Barry - Mid- GWS pre-list trade '12 - Age:19 - Ht: 183cm - Wt: 78kg

Barry is a left-footed winger whose testing at the 2012 NAB AFL Draft Combine was outstanding. He ranked in the top 10 of the 3km time-trial, repeat sprints and kicking tests, and also recorded the 11th-fastest time in the agility test. He played all five games for the Northern Territory in the 2012 NAB AFL U18 Championships, ranking No.1 at the club in kicks and uncontested possessions, equal No.1 in disposals and inside 50s, second in marks, third in hardball-gets, fourth in contested possessions and equal-sixth in looseball-gets. He also represented North Ballarat in the TAC Cup averaging 13 disposals and three inside 50s per game, but wasn't a massive ball-winner at this level, finishing with more than 20 disposals just once.

Sam Blease - Fwd/Mid - National '08 Pick 17 - Age: 22 - Ht: 184cm - Wt: 77kg

Blease bounced back after dropped early last season to play in every match from Round 8 onwards, which included 29 disposals, 14 contested possessions and 10 clearances in his return game. He ranked fourth at the club for metres gained but his ball use let him down, recording the worst retention rate of any player at the club. Of his 30 kicks into the forward 50, not one led to a goal, with his retention of 27% the worst in the top 10. He was an elite goal scorer for a midfielder, scoring at least one goal in all but two games to rank No.1 at the Demons for goals and third for scoreboard impact in the time he played.

Shannon Byrnes - Fwd - Rookie Elevation 04 - Age: 28 - Ht: 175cm - Wt: 78kg

Byrnes crossed to Melbourne as a free agent after playing just nine games with Geelong in the past two seasons. He played all four of his games from Rounds 2-7 last season, starting as the substitute in one match, averaging 10 disposals per game and booting one goal. He was prolific in his 16 VFL games, winning at least 18 disposals in every one, averaging five tackles per game and recording an outstanding 17 tackles in one game outing against North Ballarat. In the VFL, he ranked second for the Cats for inside 50s, fourth in tackles and disposals, and seventh for scoreboard impact.

More to follow.

[Whispering_Jack 30,674]

Thanks BLWNBA. I never miss the AFL Prospectus. It's a mine of information even if (like me) you're not into all that dream team stuff.

Their assessment of our list sounds reasonable although I wonder where they put Nathan Jones in the midfield mix (not in the top 35% of midfielders???). Obviously, we have the capacity to improve dramatically with more unknown factors (including the influence of the coach) than any other club. Because of the massive list changes between September '12 and now, we are going to be the most unpredictable team in the competition. Therefore, if all goes well for us (e.g Viney & Toumpas living up to our expectations and a couple of players lifting a la Dayne Beams), we could rise up higher even than their predicted 13th.

[binman 43,813]

Interesting. Spot on about our midfield. We have been woeful in that area for years now. I liked the line about Tompous and Viney needing to develop at light speed. If Trenners steps up it will help no end.

[BLWNBA 1,123]

Thanks BLWNBA. I never miss the AFL Prospectus. It's a mine of information even if (like me) you're not into all that dream team stuff.

Their assessment of our list sounds reasonable although I wonder where they put Nathan Jones in the midfield mix (not in the top 35% of midfielders???). Obviously, we have the capacity to improve dramatically with more unknown factors (including the influence of the coach) than any other club. Because of the massive list changes between September '12 and now, we are going to be the most unpredictable team in the competition. Therefore, if all goes well for us (e.g Viney & Toumpas living up to our expectations and a couple of players lifting a la Dayne Beams), we could rise up higher even than their predicted 13th.

Yeah I was very surprised about Jones too. I'll include our players ranking from elite to ungraded, tomorrow too. Found it pretty much spot on but a couple of suprises in there.

I found the analogy on Beams interesting. It would be nice, and I could see this happening to T Mac, Dunn (contentious I know), Trenners, and Watts. I see all three of these players as being essential to our revival. Improvement is needed from Tapscott, and a fit and firing Strauss could also be instrumental as a rebounding flanker. Frawely also needs to regain his form.

Potential improvement is what I'll be looking for this season, but in saying that I think the improvement that we'll see is not as much as many are expecting.

Edited January 26, 2013 by BLWNBA

[jnrmac 20,189]

Agree with you WJ. No Jones is weird. And Grimes is not really a midfielder (altho we all want him to be!)

Otherwise its probably a fair assessment.

[Freddy Fuschia 747]

Thanks BLWNBA. I never miss the AFL Prospectus. It's a mine of information even if (like me) you're not into all that dream team stuff.

Their assessment of our list sounds reasonable although I wonder where they put Nathan Jones in the midfield mix (not in the top 35% of midfielders???). Obviously, we have the capacity to improve dramatically with more unknown factors (including the influence of the coach) than any other club. Because of the massive list changes between September '12 and now, we are going to be the most unpredictable team in the competition. Therefore, if all goes well for us (e.g Viney & Toumpas living up to our expectations and a couple of players lifting a la Dayne Beams), we could rise up higher even than their predicted 13th.

Good point about Chunk. He was easily our b & f and considering he was playing for a lowly team, he polled extremely well in the Brownlow. That he's not in the top 35% midfielders staggers me. Anyway, if he and Grimes improve and we can get some of Trengove, Toumpas, Viney etc. pushing up in the midfield, we can really surprise. We also need a big season from the Russian.

[rjay 25,093]

I don't really rate champion data that highly, if you look at dream team points they often have little relevance to what actually happened in a real game.

It is fantasy football played with fanciful stats.

[Choko 493]

Thanks BLWNBA. I never miss the AFL Prospectus. It's a mine of information even if (like me) you're not into all that dream team stuff.

Their assessment of our list sounds reasonable although I wonder where they put Nathan Jones in the midfield mix (not in the top 35% of midfielders???). Obviously, we have the capacity to improve dramatically with more unknown factors (including the influence of the coach) than any other club. Because of the massive list changes between September '12 and now, we are going to be the most unpredictable team in the competition. Therefore, if all goes well for us (e.g Viney & Toumpas living up to our expectations and a couple of players lifting a la Dayne Beams), we could rise up higher even than their predicted 13th.

I 100% agree about Jones, but I think you are highly over-rating our 'unknown' factor. I think we are very known, and won't be all that unpredictable. Hope you're right though!

[Josh 1,420]

That seems about right, I think I originaly had us above St Kilda but they still have alot of stars, Dal Santo, Hayes and Saint Nick. If they decide to go with youth and start to "rebuild" we might jump them otherwise I think 13th is the best we can hope for in reality.

[Whispering_Jack 30,674]

I 100% agree about Jones, but I think you are highly over-rating our 'unknown' factor. I think we are very known, and won't be all that unpredictable. Hope you're right though!

Everyone knows the names Dawes, Petersen, Rodan, Byrnes etc. and other clubs have good young players coming onto their lists as well. In that respect, we are as well known as any other team.

However, IMO we're embarking on 2013 with so many unknowns at play. We don't know how much the constant off field drama, outside criticism and the changes brought about by the new coaching regimen including the revamp of the leadership group affected overall team performance last year but it's fair to say that the impact of these things was negative.

However, so much has changed and with many of the more poorly performed members of the list falling by the wayside in turning over one third of the list, with so many players appearing fitter and better prepared and with the possibility of younger players ready to take some big steps forward, we just don't know exactly how everything will gel together in 2013.

So while I'm optimistic about things, I think the use of the word "unpredictable" is most apt.

[Josh 1,420]

Everyone knows the names Dawes, Petersen, Rodan, Byrnes etc. and other clubs have good young players coming onto their lists as well. In that respect, we are as well known as any other team.

However, IMO we're embarking on 2013 with so many unknowns at play. We don't know how much the constant off field drama, outside criticism and the changes brought about by the new coaching regimen including the revamp of the leadership group affected overall team performance last year but it's fair to say that the impact of these things was negative.

However, so much has changed and with many of the more poorly performed members of the list falling by the wayside in turning over one third of the list, with so many players appearing fitter and better prepared and with the possibility of younger players ready to take some big steps forward, we just don't know exactly how everything will gel together in 2013.

So while I'm optimistic about things, I think the use of the word "unpredictable" is most apt.

Is this taking issue going to drag on? Will it affect the playing group? Are heads going to roll?

It seems to be one thing after another, the last 18 months there has been something about Melbourne in the media. The sooner we can all put this behing us the better I believe.

What is going to happen if we don't gel? Its a possibility...

Things might get ugly...er

[Whispering_Jack 30,674]

Is this taking issue going to drag on? Will it affect the playing group? Are heads going to roll?

It seems to be one thing after another, the last 18 months there has been something about Melbourne in the media. The sooner we can all put this behing us the better I believe.

What is going to happen if we don't gel? Its a possibility...

Things might get ugly...er

That's another reason why we're so unpredictable.

[BLWNBA 1,123]

I don't really rate champion data that highly, if you look at dream team points they often have little relevance to what actually happened in a real game.

It is fantasy football played with fanciful stats.

If I'm not mistaken DT uses their own formula, not CD ranking points. Supercoach however does and that uses match ranking points, but yeah a bit of a moot point really.

[rpfc 28,779]

If I'm not mistaken DT uses their own formula, not CD ranking points. Supercoach however does and that uses match ranking points, but yeah a bit of a moot point really.

Spot on.

They still haven't figured out a decent metric for defenders to do their actual job of, you know, defending their opponent, but CD is far better than counting kicks and handballs like the AFL does for DT points.

[CBDees 3,167]

Interesting indeed that Grimes was the only player from our midfield ranked in the top 35%. Wasn't the Russian an all-Australian not so long ago?

[rjay 25,093]

If I'm not mistaken DT uses their own formula, not CD ranking points. Supercoach however does and that uses match ranking points, but yeah a bit of a moot point really.

Isn't the champion data guy the one that 'Half' has on for his DT segment?

[pitmaster 3,578]

Interesting indeed that Grimes was the only player from our midfield ranked in the top 35%. Wasn't the Russian an all-Australian not so long ago?

Exactly. I agree Jones ought to be in the top 35% and how our rucks rate 16th out of 18 with a recent All Australian in there seems a bit harsh.

Can't argue with much else on "exposed form".

[BLWNBA 1,123]

Would you guys prefer future updates to be posted in my initial post? Or should I jut make another post in the thread? Personally I thought it would be easier just to edit it into the initial post, but I'll do whatever the majority is after!

[monoccular 17,575]

Would you guys prefer future updates to be posted in my initial post? Or should I jut make another post in the thread? Personally I thought it would be easier just to edit it into the initial post, but I'll do whatever the majority is after!

Initial post update would be great - thanks for your efforts.

[Guest José Mourinho]

If you make changes to the initial post, i'd also include a post later in the thread alerting people to that.

I personally don't very often go back to the OP of a thread to see if anything has been added at a later date.

[BLWNBA 1,123]

No worries thanks for the feedback guys. Small update 'The Numbers Game' included now. Further updates tonight when I get home.

[Courtney_Fish 183]

Personally, I blame the umpires.

[DemonDave 1,092]

Thanks for posting this, good read! Most of it is pretty spot on, our midfield has been our biggest weakness the last 5 years.

Not sure how or what the scoring measurements for the Elite to Unknown categories entails, but surprising to see

Joel MacDonald rated in Above Average.

[Whispering_Jack 30,674]

I've just picked up my copy of the AFL Prospectus and I'm looking forward to some interesting reading.

I got it at Readings in Acland Street, St. Kilda for $33.95 and they had plenty of copies.

A couple of intellectual types near the counter frowned a bit about the fact that I was purchasing a book about the footy rather than existentialism but I gave them a peace sign and all was well in the world.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,305]

Just went and picked this up at lunchtime from Dymocks at 234 Collins St after reading through this thread. Was thinking of buying it last night online but baulked at the $10 postage charge.

Am interested to have a read through, does it include all CD stats that are generally unavailable to the public during the year? One stat I've been trying to find in particular is hit-outs to advantage so I'll be interested if that's included. Hopefully it's more than just your basic K, H, M, Disp Eff. etc