I expect to see some real improvement and emphatic games statements by around 25-30 games. Am not fussed if he doesnt set the world on fire this year...but would expect the step up by next.

Quite happy if it all comes sooner rather than later though

If it takes four years before we see more than "glimpses", Watts wouldn't have been taken at No. 1. I'd be expecting this year to be one of consolidation and building experience, with some very solid games in 2011.

Judd won a Brownlow in his third year (2004), Reiwoldt won the Saints best and fairest in his second year (2002) and by his fourth year (2004) was All-Australian.

He didn't say that; he said we will only see glimpses until then. The presumption being that by 2012 the glimpses will have become consistently great performances.

As much as we'd like him to be, Jack Watts is not Nick Riewoldt.

He may one day be better; he may turn out to be worse. But expecting him to reach the same milestones would be folly.

Edit: grammar.

He didn't say that; he said we will only see glimpses until then. The presumption being that by 2012 the glimpses will have become consistently great performances.

As much as we'd like him to be, Jack Watts is not Nick Riewoldt.

He may one day be better; he may turn out to be worse. But expecting him to reach the same milestones would be folly.

A glimpse by definition is a "faint and transient appearance". Is that all you expect of Watts in his first three years, possibly 25% of his career?

I didn't say Watts had to emulate Judd's or Reiwoldt's milestones. I listed them as the achievements of the best draft picks ... in recognition that they're far more than "glimpses".

Here's what I consider a useful comparison, and an example of the virtues of patience for those who expect miracles.

- Buddy Franklin kicked three goals in his second game.

- It took him until his 24th game to kick a bag (six goals against Richmond, R12 2006).

- He kicked another six-goal bag against Carlton in R19, 2006. That's two bags in 34 games.

- He kicked three goals in a game a total of four times in his first 34 games. Apart from the two six-goal hauls against the cellar dwellers of the time, the rest were ones and twos.

- Buddy's first 34 games reaped 51 goals at an average of 1.5 goals per game.

It wasn't until Franklin's third year in the system that he kicked 73 goals and started heavily influencing games on a regular basis.

Given Watts' first year was practically a write-off, this is for all intents and purposes his first year in the system.

If Buddy only started dominating games - and he didn't dominate every game he played in 2007 - in his third full year, 2012 seems a reasonable expectation that Watts will really start hitting his straps.

A glimpse by definition is a "faint and transient appearance". Is that all you expect of Watts in his first three years, possibly 25% of his career?

I didn't say Watts had to emulate Judd's or Reiwoldt's milestones. I listed them as the achievements of the best draft picks ... in recognition that they're far more than "glimpses".

They are, but expecting him to achieve those on the same timetable is unrealistic (as MikeyJ has just pointed out)

In terms of glimpses, you are arguing semantics.

In the context it was used it would suggest moments of brilliance, but not sustained performances.

But if you want to take it that literally, then you are correct.

Remember too that in all the 3 games that Jack played in last year we got absolutely spanked, and they were arguably the 3 worst team performances of the whole season. We'll have a much better idea about his worth when we see how he goes in games when we're at least competitive - in fact, that goes for all the newbies. At the moment, there's nothing to go by so it's all speculation for all of them.

Remember too that in all the 3 games that Jack played in last year we got absolutely spanked, and they were arguably the 3 worst team performances of the whole season. We'll have a much better idea about his worth when we see how he goes in games when we're at least competitive - in fact, that goes for all the newbies. At the moment, there's nothing to go by so it's all speculation for all of them.

The Essendon game wasn't bad, for a half. Half-time we were 16 points down 10.7 to 8.3 and Jurrah showed plenty, Watts a little. Final margin was 48 points; o.k. a spanking in no uncertain terms, but we left the game with a helluva lot of hope.

If it takes four years before we see more than "glimpses", Watts wouldn't have been taken at No. 1. I'd be expecting this year to be one of consolidation and building experience, with some very solid games in 2011.

Judd won a Brownlow in his third year (2004), Reiwoldt won the Saints best and fairest in his second year (2002) and by his fourth year (2004) was All-Australian.

I do see your point Maurie, but thats only 2 players (albeit, champions) out of hundreds.. (and Juddy doesnt play tall)

Doesnt happen too often with the big lads.

We should really consider Jack Watts 2nd year of footy will be next year - 2011. Last year shouldnt count amongst us fans 'in the know'..

a couple of times in the best for melbourne this year would be a good result for me. I only want to see that he has it at AFL level and we can all get excited about what the future lies for jack in 2011 and beyond. His mark against brisbane was a sign that he has star quality. A bit more of that this year and I will be happy.

Wow Nick Nat is going to be something special B)

Wow Nick Nat is going to be something special B)

Isn't he.....i kept seeing in a demon jumper!!

Certainly makes you think doesn't it?

Although the remark was made last night that Nick was bench pressing 130 kilos. I wonder how much Jack could lift at this current stage?

Two totally differently advanced footballers in a physical sence.

Wow Nick Nat is going to be something special B)

Are we seeing just a "glimpse" in his second year of football?

Certainly makes you think doesn't it?

Although the remark was made last night that Nick was bench pressing 130 kilos. I wonder how much Jack could lift at this current stage?

Two totally differently advanced footballers in a physical sence.

NicNat is a gifted athlete with an enormous appetite to succeed, the way he throws himself around puts alot of our past senior players to shame. I love watching him play.

You've nailed it pretty well. Everyone posts asking "how is he?", "How did he train?" or "Is he being a good boy?" but if they get an honest opinion then they pull their hair out and attack anyone who might raise a question on how he is faring.

FWIW I don't expect a lot from Jack this year, and I don't think that next year will be the coming of the messiah, but I see a lot of promise in the boy for 2012 onwards. I just hope the kid doesn't read this thread (and others like it) and start second guessing himself.

The trouble is is it an honest opinion or just someone trying to big note themselves as usual. Seroiusly, part from the coaching staff, any opinions about Jack Watts is just guess work. And dribble from know-nothings.

NicNat is a gifted athlete with an enormous appetite to succeed, the way he throws himself around puts alot of our past senior players to shame. I love watching him play.

Ha it's actually like watching the giant kid dominate in the Under 13s except its the AFL. He is a freak and you're right, a thrill to watch

Seeing "Nic Nat" play last night for the Eagles was very, very impressive.

I know that the commentators seems generally excited about his performance.

I admit it does put a bit of pressure on Jack Watts. But we need to be patient with young Jack and give him time to develop.

Nevertheless, I did notice on TV last night that they claimed "Nic Nat" can bench press 140kilos already?!

Natnaui is the most talented youngster to be drafted since Buddy. It was like watching a young Lebron James last night, he looked in another class. Ouch.

Natnaui is the most talented youngster to be drafted since Buddy. It was like watching a young Lebron James last night, he looked in another class. Ouch.

Liam Jurrah says hi.

Liam Jurrah says hi.

Think Natnaui has Jurrah covered by quite a distance. He is athletically superior, can out jump, tackle with force, run down, kick freak goals, hitout, etc, etc. He is the total package.

Looks a bit like the NBA draft in 84' when a team passed up on Michael Jordan. Natnaui will be a freak player, but in 2 years he'll be the most marketable brand in the AFL. Last nite was the first time since watching Ablett dominate W.A at Subiaco in 84', that I've seen a bonafide star emerge in a single game.

Think Natnaui has Jurrah covered by quite a distance. He is athletically superior, can out jump, tackle with force, run down, kick freak goals, hitout, etc, etc. He is the total package.

Looks a bit like the NBA draft in 84' when a team passed up on Michael Jordan. Natnaui will be a freak player, but in 2 years he'll be the most marketable brand in the AFL. Last nite was the first time since watching Ablett dominate W.A at Subiaco in 84', that I've seen a bonafide star emerge in a single game.

Easy on the Nat love there guys. I think a dose of reality s needed.

Yes, he is a freak athlete, but he still can't play football. He kicked one decent goal from the pocket that 95% of the guys on the ground could have done just as well. The others were gifts from right in front, including one from a dodgy free kick and an even dodgier 50m penalty. When he played in the ruck he was generally beaten. His hands are terrible. He takes five grabs before he can pick up the ball. The Great Mark everyone seems to be freaking out over was nothing of the sort. He had the sit on a significantly shorter opponent. If he hadn't taken it they would have been justified in taking him out behind the stable and shooting him. Quite frankly, the only noteworthy thing about his game last night was the tackling, and that is simply not what he was drafted to do.

In summary, he is fast, strong, athletic and clumsy. They have managed to improve his set shot to the point where he can be trusted to goal from directly in front, but he still can't mark the ball, can't pick it up under any sort of pressure and is a [censored]-poor ruck.

All in all I think that one day he will be a very good player, but the raving, frothing at the mouth and building golden idols in the shape of his head are way premature.

Old Xav, you are all sizzle and no sausage. Nitnak beat no-one. Jurrah had to be dragged lest he inspire us to beat the saints last year. The gulf in performance is enourmous. Niknat is a poor mark, poor kick and break-even handball. He has no idea where to run (which doesn't matter when the play follows you).

Why don't you spend your time explaining ow the litle ferret Didak is going to get a kick now staging is frowned upon.

Whilst NikNat was brilliant to watch last night (his chasing, tackling and defensive pressure were highlights) he wasn't exactly playing against Paddy Ryder was he......

In summary, he is fast, strong, athletic and clumsy

Don't think clumsy is a word to describe him. He has made players half his size and thus more agile look silly, he has fantastic control, was one ruck contest last night where he won the tap, roved to his own ball & feed off a rocket handball to Kerr that resulted in a goal.

You could have yielded an extra 15 K memberships off the back of drafting him.

Don't think clumsy is a word to describe him. He has made players half his size and thus more agile look silly, he has fantastic control, was one ruck contest last night where he won the tap, roved to his own ball & feed off a rocket handball to Kerr that resulted in a goal.

You could have yielded an extra 15 K memberships off the back of drafting him.

Hindsite is an amazing super power you have there Old Xav!! You can use it to take over one opposition supporters forum at a time.

Please oh wise one tells some more amazing hindsite knowledge we stand in awe of you oh great one.