From what I understands is we finish 16th with 4 wins and west coast finish 15th with 4 wins we would get picks 1 and 3, west coast would get 2nd and 4th, both getting a priority.

Thats right cd84, but let me put this to you, -

Weagles - 14th - four wins

Demons - 15th - four wins

Richm'd - 16th - 3 wins

Draft order

1 R'd order - 1st pick - Demons (priority)

---------------- 2nd pick - Eagles (priority)

---------------- 3rd pick - Tiges

---------------- 4th pick - Dees - rnd1 pick

-----------------------------------------------------

2 R'd order - 19 pick - Tiges (priority)

---------------- 20 pick - Tiges

---------------- 21 pick - Demons

---------------- 22 pick - Eagles

Well, that's questionable. I rate Warnock as a defender, alongside Rivers. So that's two...

I'd say that Garland is even better than Warnock and I agree with the above statement, so I'd say we have at least three. But it's a bit of a stupid thing to say. It over simplifies the situation extraordinarily. We might have a 'defender' (who is an accomplished player, according to you 45?), like say Garland. But at the same time, he too is still developing, so to over simplify a list as you're doing 45, is a little unfair.

As the season goes on, more and more clubs will end up playing kids as much as possible. Melbourne, Richmond and WCE have either a 1st or 2nd round PP to sweeten things but I reckon even some of the other clubs closer to the top 8 will do a similar thing once the writing is on the wall. The GC's influence will come home to roost for many clubs as the season nears the end and if Port can put the cue in the rack by about round 13 last year then there is no reason why they won't do it again (apart from Choco being under the pump). North's next 4 games are very hard and could put them in the doldrums as well so they may possibly call it a day earlier than expected (if at all). I think the 2nd half of the season is going to be very interesting indeed.

The AFL seems to be helping them along with the ridiculous suspension handed out to him by the tribunal. Farsical to be suspended for "striking" when he only bumped him.

West Coast are 2 games ahead of us. So we are in a pretty good position.

I thought West Coast were trying when we played them.

Of course the players are trying their butts off to win. 'List management'works when the coach play's players out of position, or drop players for different reasons or select too many inexperienced players, or train the team through the week the wrong way to get up.

I think the scenario is pretty simple. We just have to win less than four matches and finish below West Coast. West Coast's problem is that they're currently two matches and percentage ahead of us and play another three games against sides that are 'tanking' (perception only, because AD tells us this doesn't happen in his empire).

Richmond had to pull Terry's chute quickly, he's stuffed them up for four and a half years, he was going to stuff them up for the rest of the year by actually trying to win games. Their real problem is that obviously if they're thinking ahead then next year's priority pick is what they're going to angle for, in which case the caretaker has a real bastard of a job, because he can't win more than one match in the next 12 weeks. The WCE v Richmond match at Subi should be very enlightening. The other problem the Tiges have is that half their list logs on daily to check the fortunes of their superannuation to see if they can retire at the end of the year or have to wait until they're 67 - so there's not much there to offer GC for some of their plum picks next year.

Even if they do Tank and take one of the PP's then it don't matter, we would still get one and are looking GREAT for the future anyway.

Is it just me or is anyone concerned that west coast are going to seriously tank and win only one more game for the season?

Call me negative but I believe it is crucial that we pick up 1 & 2 as it will allow us to pick up a gun midfielder (scully) and a key forward/ruckman without having to be compromised by hoping that west tank don't pick up a player we need.

we will come last and Butcher and Mulder will be with the Demons next year

we will come last and Butcher and Mulder will be with the Demons next year

and they will be the x-files we need..........flag in 2013-14

I think the scenario is pretty simple. We just have to win less than four matches and finish below West Coast. West Coast's problem is that they're currently two matches and percentage ahead of us and play another three games against sides that are 'tanking' (perception only, because AD tells us this doesn't happen in his empire).

Richmond had to pull Terry's chute quickly, he's stuffed them up for four and a half years, he was going to stuff them up for the rest of the year by actually trying to win games. Their real problem is that obviously if they're thinking ahead then next year's priority pick is what they're going to angle for, in which case the caretaker has a real bastard of a job, because he can't win more than one match in the next 12 weeks. The WCE v Richmond match at Subi should be very enlightening. The other problem the Tiges have is that half their list logs on daily to check the fortunes of their superannuation to see if they can retire at the end of the year or have to wait until they're 67 - so there's not much there to offer GC for some of their plum picks next year.

Exactly right Graz.

Its ironic that due to the AFL PP drafting rules, there is more spice and intrigue at the bottom of the ladder with the bottom 4 or 5 than at the top of the AFL ladder where Geelong and St Kilda are peerless at the moment.

The fixture draw is very very interesting indeed. I have no doubt in the world that Woosher has his eyes on the PP but his room to move is limited. And the Tigers move on Wallace is calculated notwithstanding the comedy that they have enacted around this issue.

As much as I hate the filth (and all the other clubs too!), MFC need to be careful with the "winnable" games that that it has this year. And as Graz says our objective should be no more than 4 wins and finish below WCE and Richmond.

Ignoring North - maybe risky because some have them as 16th best team - there's 4 teams in the race.

Freo, WC, Richmond and us. Let's assume those "list managing" won't win against anyone outside the group.

There's 6 matches between teams in the group so 6 wins have to be distributed.

Freo on 3 wins have 2 matches: WC, MFC

WC on 3 wins have 4 matches: Rich, Freo, MFC, Rich

Richmond on 2 wins have 3 matches: WC, MFC, WC

MFC on 1 win have 3 matches: WC, Rich, Freo

We should not win more than 4 matches. Let's assume we win all 3 above, that leaves 3 wins to be distributed and we have:

Freo on 3 wins have 1 match: WC

WC on 3 wins have 3 matches: Rich, Freo, Rich

Richmond on 2 wins have 2 matches: WC, WC

MFC on 4 wins

There's a pretty good chance we wont finish last even if we only win 4.

This week's Tiges v Wet Toast game is the one that will start the ball rolling.

If WC win, they will know that they are 100 to 1 on to win the return match against Richmond. This effectively puts them over the 4 win mark. This will render tanking for them pretty much redundant as it will only give marginal improvement to their situation.

If Richmond win, they will get to 3 wins as have WC. The Tiges are a funny side; they have enough decent senior players to beat a lot of teams and a win might well start the ball rolling, particularly if they can get Richo, Brown, Coghlan et al fit and firing. Add to that maybe Simmonds and Bowden playing for their careers.

In short, the winner of the game probably moves out of tanking range.

Note that the 4 win mark is the issue. This shows the real problem; it is not the draft per se, but the priority pick that causes tanking or perceptions thereof.

It would seem that round 20 will be the interesting game for MFC. By then we will know where Rich,WC and Freo are and it would be the game when Green, Robbo, Johnson/Jamar and Davey are injured. We could then get ready to meet and greet Scully and ?????.

Alot of the Richmond boys will be playing for their careers in the second half of the season (Richo, Brown, bowden etc) and you would think that rawlings wouldn't be trying to lose , time will tell

This week's Tiges v Wet Toast game is the one that will start the ball rolling.

If WC win, they will know that they are 100 to 1 on to win the return match against Richmond. This effectively puts them over the 4 win mark. This will render tanking for them pretty much redundant as it will only give marginal improvement to their situation.

If Richmond win, they will get to 3 wins as have WC. The Tiges are a funny side; they have enough decent senior players to beat a lot of teams and a win might well start the ball rolling, particularly if they can get Richo, Brown, Coghlan et al fit and firing. Add to that maybe Simmonds and Bowden playing for their careers.

In short, the winner of the game probably moves out of tanking range.

Note that the 4 win mark is the issue. This shows the real problem; it is not the draft per se, but the priority pick that causes tanking or perceptions thereof.

I totally agree with this.

The question is "Who would we prefer to win Tigers v West Coke?"

I have no respect for the West Coke for a number of obvious reasons. If WC lose they will tank out the season and get an undeserved priority pick (like last season), that is certain. This will limit us to Pick 1 and 3 at best.

If Richmond lose, the threat of losing Pick 2 is much reduced. Rawlings and many on the Tiger list will be playing for their careers for the remainder of the season and will still push for wins. Further the Tigers don't actually believe that they are as bad as they are. They believe in themselves and think they have just been poorly coached. They still believe that the backbone of their list has top 4 potential. I believe Richmond will give it one more crack in 2010 with the current list before wholesale re-building. With the GC team coming in the reality is they have little choice but to hope for a turn around with the current list. After all they were simply outstanding the second half of 08 and must be scratching their heads with their current form.

If Richmond lose it almost knocks WC out of the PP race. Richmond may pick up a PP but that would be after the first round. Thus it is more likely the Dees get pick 1 & 2 with a WC win.

Richmond will beat West Coast.

WC are silent, but they are rolling into St Petersburg.

They were horrible tonight and are clearly playing to secure a priority pick, and for those people that wanted the MFC to draft Tom Swift should be very glad they are not part of the MFC drafting team, he is slow with no awareness and a poor user of the ball

after tonights game the perth teams are the biggest threat so that PP of 1 and 2, still i dotn think theres much to worrie about, though with rawling as coach he will be keen to set a good impression and will be looking to win week out.

WC are silent, but they are rolling into St Petersburg.

IF, I was a weagles fan, i would congratulate them on how professional they are.

They'll prepare themselves properly for one more win, their grand final (prob against Freo) but they'll give nothing for 10 more rounds.

IF, I was a weagles fan, i would congratulate them on how professional they are.

They'll prepare themselves properly for one more win, their grand final (prob against Freo) but they'll give nothing for 10 more rounds.

Watched the game last night and thought Weagles are a f#cking disgrace !! They were not even approaching trying properly for this match, and that team should have beaten Richmond easily. Even Cox and Kerr early were lack lustre.

How can you have half the side with premiership players and do so badly? also convenient injuries prior to this game in Embley and Hunter.

Tell me they are not tanking !!!

p.s they play Richmond last game at Subi, so can't afford to lose one more game till then.

Guys, they have got Natanui and want to get more priorities before us, AFTER WINNING THE PREMIERSHIP 3 YEARS AGO !!

My goodness.

I only saw the second half but they were 3 goals down and had Lecras playing on the ball and Selwood deep forward.....................

The first quarter was the most obvious display of tanking I've ever seen.

I only saw the second half but they were 3 goals down and had Lecras playing on the ball and Selwood deep forward.....................

Add to that Stenglein at full back on Morton when they were still a chance.

Tiges were always going to win this, I think I called it 2-3 weeks ago