PREDICTION 2009

[Carn dees 108]

IMO we are alot further in progress from this time last year, obviuosly .

Where do we as supporters think the dees will finish this year?

And what areas need most development? To me we could do with one more dominant key forward, we have the millers johsons bates dunns and even sylvia but none of wich realy scare the opponent.

i think we have enough small forwards in maric davey wona jetta and even sylvia.

Our midfeild has some promising young players and our defence is coming along very nicely.

be interesting to see the younger players getting runs in the NAB cup.

[rusty_kingswood 0]

I think that we will probably double the amount of wins we had last year. So between 6 - 7 wins I would be happy with.

The ruck department sill worries me a bit. I know that Spencer is meant to be coming along nicely, but he wont play this year until mid season or so (if he does at all) Jamar cant ruck, and Paul Johnson I think could be utilized a little better. Meesen..well lets just hope for all our sakes that he doesn't get on the ground. cant see any promise in him what so ever.

When you look at Chook, Moloney, even Jones and Dunn now as a run with player. I think we have a competitive midfield as well.

However competitive isn't what we want.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,320]

Bottom four (4-7 wins) with alot of competitive losses due to our defences ability to minimise the scoreboard damage. We lack forward power and midfield polish but as long we keep getting games into the kids we will keep showing improvement.

[The Backyard Charizard 1,178]

10th - 16th

The thing that concerns me is our forward line.... But this will only be a concern for 2009..... Same goes for our rucks....

2009 will bring a little more pain..... 2008 was a gaping chainsaw wound.... 2009 will see that wound start to scab over.... 2010 we will be well into the healing process and by 2011 we will be left with only a scar to remind us of those terribly painful times!!

[45HG 1,539]

With such a pathetic forwardline, I see it as being very tough for us to win over 5 matches this year.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Based on the TV game and Visy game this week.....

I really worry about our midfield. It is very ordinary and we dont have clearances winners and we dont have players of real class in the middle. And I agree we have naff all options up forward. I reckon our defence is coming together well though. Garland is special. I really like Martin and Frawlwy can run well. Warnock is honest so long as he is not exposed 1 on 1.

12 to 16.

[71 Molloy 266]

I'll let Clubber Lang talk for me.

[Carn dees 108]

I'll let Clubber Lang talk for me.

LOL hopefully wel be causing the pain.....

[maximum bob 462]

13, 14, 15, 16?

It will depend on how badly Wet Toast, Freo and the Dons go as to where we finish '09.

If it's a choice of four at the tail-end of the ladder I'm happy to bottom out before the resurgence.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

We will struggle to convert. No consistent targets in the forward line at the moment. We need to have a few consistent winners with the ability to kick a score. I feel we will improve on all lines this year except the forward line will remain static or improve only marginally imo.

[1858 224]

We will struggle to convert. No consistent targets in the forward line at the moment. We need to have a few consistent winners with the ability to kick a score. I feel we will improve on all lines this year except the forward line will remain static or improve only marginally imo.

I agree but it isn't just goals on the board that is an issue with our forward line either, to a minor degree the development of our midfield and ball carriers will be effected by having such an ordinary forward line. Without clear cut targets and forwards who know where and when to lead, we will have ball carriers who won't know what to do when going forward. Hesitation causes players to hold the ball up and then they naturally get into trouble which effects their disposal and confidence not to mention the attacking flow of the team. Bailey I expect, will do a pretty good job of getting our ball carriers to run and get the footy and will emphasise skills under pressure but unless we have a reasonably settled forward line then it will be hard to drill into the younger players the team rules and tactics. Our forward line is pivotal to our overall gameplan which you would expect to come into a more obvious phase later in the year. Our lack of quality forwards means some experimentation will be used at different stages but I don't think we can afford too much of this. We may have to keep certain players in spots up forward simply for the purpose of training aids to our midfield. Miller needs to be kept closer to goal where he is in range and the other forward target whether it be Newton or someone else needs to play a consistent roll (even if they are no good) until they are replaced by Watts (or Jurrah) later this year or next year.

[mo64 5,240]

Our forward line is pivotal to our overall gameplan which you would expect to come into a more obvious phase later in the year.

Totally disagree. Last season we were the worst team at clearances which resulted in the fewest inside 50s by a considerable margin. And when we did get it forward, we were usually outnumbered.

For our gameplan to work, we need our mids to present as goal kicking options, and our defenders to be pushing through the middle. We seem to be pre-occupied with getting numbers behind the ball, which is a defensive mindset.

I expect us to finish 16th with 5 wins. I can see improvement in individual players, but whether that translates to improvement as a team, is questionable.

[LeBron James 41]

I expect us to finish 16th with 5 wins.

That would be the WORST possible outcome.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Totally disagree. Last season we were the worst team at clearances which resulted in the fewest inside 50s by a considerable margin. And when we did get it forward, we were usually outnumbered.

For our gameplan to work, we need our mids to present as goal kicking options, and our defenders to be pushing through the middle. We seem to be pre-occupied with getting numbers behind the ball, which is a defensive mindset.

I expect us to finish 16th with 5 wins. I can see improvement in individual players, but whether that translates to improvement as a team, is questionable.

I agree 100% that the midfield improvement is absolutely crucial. With a bit more luck with injury I expect us to make the improvement. We have also have a number of players who I hope will bolster our class factor in the midfield ie wona, maric, maybe even morton, strauss, jetta, bennell. I still believe that a midfield containig a fit mclean, moloney, grimes and jones will have the inside contests covered (if fit). We desperately need some class, pace and skill to carry and clear the footy. We have recruited to solve this problem, maybe I am optimistic to expect this to improve this season?

[Chook 14,609]

That would be the WORST possible outcome.

How could that possibly be worse than 15th with five wins? It'd be bad, but not quite the worst. But if we finish last this year and win more than four games, they had better all have been in the first half of the year.

[1858 224]

Totally disagree. Last season we were the worst team at clearances which resulted in the fewest inside 50s by a considerable margin. And when we did get it forward, we were usually outnumbered.

For our gameplan to work, we need our mids to present as goal kicking options, and our defenders to be pushing through the middle. We seem to be pre-occupied with getting numbers behind the ball, which is a defensive mindset.

I expect us to finish 16th with 5 wins. I can see improvement in individual players, but whether that translates to improvement as a team, is questionable.

I think we are coming from different perspectives here. An important part of my point: "which you would expect to come into a more obvious phase later in the year".

If I read you right you are saying that our gameplan is already out there but we just aren't performing it well enough and by mids moving forward this will make our gameplan more effective. My perspective is that we haven't even started on our game plan and tactics yet. We are working on basics like ball skills and team interaction. Bailey hasn't even had enough time yet to determine our best 22. What we saw last year was not a gameplan. Perhaps we have different opinions on what constitutes a gameplan, in my books last year was about retaining posession and seeing which players were strong under pressure. My point of view is that as our list gets better and we lock more players into positions Bailey will develop a more in depth and robust game plan which involves tactics and game play from one end of the ground to the other. This is the context that I say our forward line will be pivotal.

With respect to some of your other points; In a perfect world where we run the ball from defence and our mids can just waltz inside forward 50 to be a marking option or slot one on the run that's great. In the real world where we are still developing our midfield to even get the ball and make proper decisions and enhance their skills you need genuine forwards and structure to be in place so they have options and can develop their game. I think you are trivialising the game a little too. Not every play is from defence, there is also a thing called a centre bounce - that thing we were killed at by Hawthorn last week in the final quarter. From a centre break, if you get the ball down quickly it will be a good forward set up that finishes it. I look forward to seeing our young mids run the lines from half back to half forward and slot some goals but that is only part of the game. Even if some mids push forward as an extra target that is fine but I doubt Bailey will hang his hat on that as a winning formula as time progresses.

Also, besides clearances, one of the main reasons our inside 50s was low (last year) was due to a lack of options - how many times did we go forward only to hold it up due to indecision? The lack of numbers you refer to can also be attributed (in part) to our poor forward line - no quality or structure enables the opposition to free up defenders or to play to a preferred zone. Having a well functioning forward line gives the ball carrier options as you can manipulate the oppositions defence. A good forward setup can create spaces or fill spaces depending on the play and this in turn effects the ball carriers decision making process about passing (and to which target) or retaining possession and running the lines. Finishing is not just about the quality of your kick but also where you kick. It stands to reason that with well drilled interaction with forward targets that your disposal will improve over time as will decision making and that is crucial to developing our young midfielders.

I am not disputing your point about numbers behind the ball, that certainly did happen too much last year when we were in damage control. I like your point about midfielders working forward but (for a good football team) that should compliment a forward line not replace it. Bailey will undoubtedly develop our game plan through out the year to have defence, midfield and forward line come together. My point is that until our forward line is fully structured we won't be able to do this to the best of our ability and our midfielders will suffer to a minor degree. I think you are hinging your ideals on a brand of footy that is still in the making and if we are solely going to rely on midfielders pushing forward (as you suggest) then that would be inadequate.

[Guest Rojik of the Arctic]

Not too fussed about results as we all realise it's not going to be a memorable year for us. But I want to see the kids coming along with the established players leading by example, no serious injuries and the side fighting out games until the final siren. And then we start climbing, and climbing hard in 2010.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,385]

16th

4-18

75%

Wins:

Adelaide - round 5

West Coast - round 14

Port Adelaide - round 15

Fremantle - round 20

[mo64 5,240]

I think we are coming from different perspectives here.

My perspective is that we haven't even started on our game plan and tactics yet. We are working on basics like ball skills and team interaction. Bailey hasn't even had enough time yet to determine our best 22. What we saw last year was not a gameplan.

I think we have different philosophies on football.

I would be staggered if Bailey's job interview went along the lines of "for the first 2 seasons I'll develop the players and not be concerned with how we play, and in year 3 I'll devise a gameplan to suit them". If they are thoughts of our coach given our financial position, I give up.

My philosophy on coaching is that the coach has to get the best results out of the cattle he has in any given year. That means that he devises a gameplan based on the players he has today, not on players he may have in 3 years time.

[praha 10,329]

I'm expecting 3-5 wins. I personally believe we'll end up with the same amount as wins next year, but I think our overall performances will be better. As long as we're competitive, that's all I care about at this stage. Play the youngsters. I can handle another year down the bottom. Question is, can the club?

[titan_uranus 22,731]

Based on the TV game and Visy game this week.....

I really worry about our midfield. It is very ordinary and we dont have clearances winners and we dont have players of real class in the middle. And I agree we have naff all options up forward. I reckon our defence is coming together well though. Garland is special. I really like Martin and Frawlwy can run well. Warnock is honest so long as he is not exposed 1 on 1.

12 to 16.

Agreed. The midfield is not good, but the forward line makes the midfield look like gold. Disagree re: Warnock though, I think his 1 on 1 work is passable.

16th

4-18

75%

Wins:

Adelaide - round 5

West Coast - round 14

Port Adelaide - round 15

Fremantle - round 20

Well we haven't had a win against a Victorian team in any form of competitive match (i.e. AFL, NAB cup or NAB challenge) since we beat Carlton in round 22 2007. So I guess that's not such a bad prediction BBP.

Personally, I can't see us rising above 10th, but I think we can get 4-6 wins and get off the bottom.

[1858 224]

I think we have different philosophies on football.

I would be staggered if Bailey's job interview went along the lines of "for the first 2 seasons I'll develop the players and not be concerned with how we play, and in year 3 I'll devise a gameplan to suit them". If they are thoughts of our coach given our financial position, I give up.

My philosophy on coaching is that the coach has to get the best results out of the cattle he has in any given year. That means that he devises a gameplan based on the players he has today, not on players he may have in 3 years time.

You are completely missing the point or at least jumping to rediculous assumptions. I didn't suggest that Bailey doesn't have a gameplan nor did I suggest that he isn't instilling fundamentals of it. Quite simply last year we were disastrous and struggled to play even a basic level of footy let alone adhere to the Bailey gameplan. I am not saying that Bailey is holding off on it (that is a stupid suggestion) more so that we won't be able to perform it optimally for a while until the majority of players have developed. That is why I said that last year wasn't about the gameplan - it became about footy basics because we were so poor at the basics. Over the summer break Bailey recruited with a specific purpose to getting ball carriers with good disposal. Even though we tried last year we were not in a position to focus too much on the Bailey gameplan as our skills were shocking - we could see that they were applying a few aspects but they struggled majorly. As our players improve and play to instruction more, our gameplan will become more apparent - get it?

You also seem to have a one dimensional view of what a gameplan is. It isn't just posession like we have seen so far, also you would have to be naive to think that once our forward line is established that our gameplan won't evolve to incorporate different tactics going forward. A gameplan is a combination of style of play as well as tactics, Bailey has started instilling this but it will take time - it won't happen over night as you seem to suggest it will.

Your philosophy on football is flawed. You would be a good coach at Richmond who coach for the moment and make compromises due to their cattle. I on the other hand believe in the philosophy (that Bailey is approaching with) which is you define a long term goal and build towards it. If you don't have the players who can perform to that game plan then you get players who can (which we seem to have done over the summer). Of course you have to develop the players you have (which Bailey is doing) - he isn't getting paid to sit on his ass but it doesn't mean you change your gameplan to suit a lack of talent. It stands to reason that until we have the best players on the paddock playing to the gameplan, we won't see that plan at it's most effective which was my original point. Bailey saw how bad we were last year and focussed on competitiveness and not losing posession - not because he felt like it but because he had to. He didn't think to himself "hmm I don't feel like enforcing a gameplan this year, maybe next year" he acted accordingly based on our footy skills and brought in a few basics of the game plan. If you think what we saw last year is the extent of the Bailey gameplan then you are deluded.

When Bailey applied for his job he would have outlined his goals, his gameplan and how he would go about achieving a new generation team adhering to the gameplan over time. Our next generation forward line is not even on the park. Watts, Jurrah and Maric will all be key prospects going forward and when they finally get a game we will hone our tactics so that the midfield and forward line interact like in top sides like the Hawks - if you can't see this then I think you should indeed "give up".

[Hannabal 4]

That means that he devises a gameplan based on the players he has today, not on players he may have in 3 years time.

A coach has to do both. They're not mutually exclusive.

[mo64 5,240]

If you don't have the players who can perform to that game plan then you get players who can (which we seem to have done over the summer).

Our next generation forward line is not even on the park. Watts, Jurrah and Maric will all be key prospects going forward and when they finally get a game we will hone our tactics so that the midfield and forward line interact like in top sides like the Hawks - if you can't see this then I think you should indeed "give up".

I'm not going to respond to your whole post because it's too long winded, but you fall for the same trap as most on this forum by pinning your hopes on players who haven't or hardly played senior AFL football.

And for you to suggest that any club would continually turn over their list until the players can perform to a coach's gameplan, borders on stupidity. When does it get to the point when the coach is held accountable?

[1858 224]

I'm not going to respond to your whole post because it's too long winded, but you fall for the same trap as most on this forum by pinning your hopes on players who haven't or hardly played senior AFL football.

And for you to suggest that any club would continually turn over their list until the players can perform to a coach's gameplan, borders on stupidity. When does it get to the point when the coach is held accountable?

If anyone is falling for traps it is yourself, you make one rediculous assumption after another on my posts. In case you hadn't noticed we have turned over 19 players since Bailey has been with the club. I am not "pinning my hopes" as you put it on players who haven't played the game - I am facing the reality that we have a new generation of players coming through the ranks. I am saying that our game plan will not come into full swing until we have the best 22 out there showing it for what it is - simple really. A gameplan is not as simple as Bailey coming to the club and saying "this is it boys now go out there and do it". A gameplan (just like a squad) takes time to instill and develop - join the real world. I am not saying that Bailey is (or should be) unaccountable with developing all of our players, in my previous post I stated that he spent much of last year honing the skills of the entire squad.

Your second point is yet another theoretical generalisation. As far as skills are concerned we recruited players who were accomplished with their disposal. Does that mean we get rid of every player on our list? NO, does it mean that the coach shouldn't think about our gameplan when recruiting new players NO. You confessed to not reading the entire post which if you had you would see that I said that Bailey has to develop the players he has but the lack of talent shouldn't compromise the direction of the gameplan. Your comprehension skills and football understanding are quite limited.

Please stop replying to my posts with one dimensional, ill though comments.