ANOTHER YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART FIVE

[Demonland 73,136]

Stevo's draft preview concludes with the Chaos Theory -

ANOTHER YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART FIVE by Stevo

THE CHAOS THEORY

They all started out as just names and most of them were unknown 12 months ago but the keen and growing interest in the national draft and in its importance to the nation's biggest sport (and indeed a major industry in these difficult times) has thrust these names into the minds of many who follow football with a little more intensity than the average punter.

Over the past year, many of these names acquired faces and reputations and, a little after 10 o'clock this Saturday morning, they will start carrying the hopes for the future of many and diverse supporters of the game.

The most prominent of the names have already been mentioned in this series. I stand by my top three of Jack Watts, Nick Naitanui and Daniel Rich as the players who are head and shoulders above all others in my estimation (no surprise after reading Burgo's Phantom Draft) even though they were actually not the first taken. Geelong Falcons ruckman Ayce Cordy had that honour when selected by the Western Bulldogs under the father/son rule costing them pick number 14. My other first rounders are (in no particular order), the "wild cards" Phil Davis, Stephen Hill, Steele Sidebottom, Tom Swift, Jackson Trengove and Chris Yarran who could go anywhere and whose stories make this draft so interesting and the solid citizens heading for top ten selection or thereabouts in Hamish Hartlett, Michael Hurley, Lewis Johnston, Shaun McKernan, Tyrone Vickery and Jack Ziebell. These are my sixteen first rounders.

There are of course, many more names in the draft mix. Thanks mainly to the chaos theory of drafting, other names will inevitably creep into that first round of sixteen (I'm not infallible). The chaos theory works because the draft is the product of a number of different minds who have different views about the players and the needs of their clubs. If Fremantle decides to select Stephen Hill at # 3, it creates chaos further down the line with one club or another being forced to shuffle its preferences as a result of that one decision which might, like the butterfly flapping its wings in the valley of the Amazon, cause a cataclysm somewhere else on the face of the earth.

Meanwhile, there are nine eligible All-Australians who missed my first round:-

Matt Deboer, Kade Klemke, Jordan Lisle, Rhys O'Keefe Clancee Pearce, Mitch Robinson, Nick Suban, Michael Walters and David Zaharakis. Most of them would fit nicely into the top group and I have some favourites from this list (pen pictures from Inside Football):-

JORDAN LISLE - tall forward, Oakleigh Chargers, Vic
DOB: 12/7/90 Ht: 196cm Wt: 87kg

"Jordy had a fantastic year combining school footy with TAC Cup footy. He's predominantly played as a tall marking forward and this year we pushed him back to centre half back, a role he also played for Vic Metro. For a guy his size, his skills and decision making are first class and he uses the ball very well. Has terrific hands and for a big bloke is good below his knees." - Oakleigh Chargers region manager Stephen Conole. Vic Metro rep 2008. All Australian 2008. From Carey Grammar.

MICHAEL WALTERS - midfielder, Swan Districts, WA.
DOB: 7/1/91 Ht: 177cm Ht: 75kg

"Michael came off the state under-18s championships and went into our senior side and did very well late in the year. Finished the year in the Colts side and played in the premiership. Played virtually all year through the middle of the ground and across half forward and he's got one of the best football brains you could imagine. Unbelievable skills by foot" - Swan Districts football manager Matt Peach. AIS-AFL Academy graduate. WA rep 2008. From Midvale FC.

DAVID ZAHARKIS - midfielder. Northern Knights, Vic
DOB: 21/2/90 Ht: 180cm Wt: 73kg.

"David played onball this year and he was a co-captain of Vic Metro. He's a very quick player with great agility who uses the ball very well. Apart from his footy David has great leadership skills and would bring great character to a footy club. An exciting prospect who unfortunately didn't participate in the draft camp because of about of glandular fever." - Northern Knights coach Paul Satterley. Vic Metro rep 2008. All Australian 2008. From Marcellin College.

But that's not all as the say in the steak knife advertisement on late night television. There is another group of names who I describe as the best of the rest - names that didn't achieve AA honours for one reason or another but who are good enough to find their way into the first round of this draft. If they don't, they will likely find a new football home by the end of the second. They are:

Dayne Beams, Sam Blease, Aaron Cornelius, Nick Heyne, Tom Lynch, Jordan Roughead, Ryan Schoenmakers and Ashley Smith.

The same drill again with Inside Football pen pics:-

SAM BLEASE - mid, Eastern Ranges, Vic
DOB: 19/12/91 Ht: 183cm 72kg

"Sam hasn't played a lot with the Ranges because of injury and school footy (Yarra Valley Grammar) but he's just got explosive speed and sensational skills. Just a super kick who plays generally on a wing, uses the ball well and makes good decisions. Suffered with osteitis pubis last summer and had a slight knee injury late 2008." - Eastern Ranges manager Ian Flack. AIS-AFL Academy graduate. Vic Metro rep 2008.

TOM LYNCH - tall forward, Sandringham Dragons, Vic
DOB: 15/9/90 Ht: 191 cm Wt: 84kg

"Tom had a knee reconstruction as a 17- year -old and didn't play last year. Was the co-captain of Victoria, captained Haileybury College and was the best and fairest winner there. Got a lot of pedigree and is just a good player. Can play centre half forward or centre half back and is a very, very smart player." Sandringham Dragons region manager Wayne Oswald. Vic Metro rep- 2008. AIS-AFL Academy graduate. From Haileybury College.

RYAN SCHOENMAKERS - medium forward, Norwood, SA.
DOB: 8/11/90 Ht: 193cm Wt: 85kg

"Ryan's a tall forward at 193cm who kicks beautifully off both feet - you can't tell whether he's a left or right footer. Got a good motor as well which enables him to leap and present up well Played all year for us in the reserves apart from me national carnival and was discussed-later in the year in the senior mix but didn't get a game. He won the repeated sprint test at the draft, which underlines his mobility, and. did a 2.9 secs for the 20-metre sprint." - Norwood development manager David Oatey SA rep 2008. From Tea Tree Gully FC.

Melbourne would be doing well to draft one of the players highlighted above with picks 17 and 19. Blease and either Lisle or Lynch would make a good pair for the Demons but remember, once the first few selections are made, it could well be chaos out there!

I won't hazard to go further but there is another element to the chaos theory that should start playing out a role late in the second round and that is the recycled player. A large list have registered for the draft in the hope that they might get a second or third chance at an AFL club but St. Kilda blew a big hole calculations by dropping out of the race for Ben Cousins who might have gone early. The rest of the recycled group will be up against the great depth of young talent in this draft and they might struggle competing with next tier of players likely to include Jarrad Blight, Mitch Brown, Matthew Broadbent, Paul Cahill, Steven Gaertner, Dan Hannebery, Jayden Post, Luke Shuey, Rory Sloan, James Strauss, Jarrad Redden and Tom Rockliff before we get down to the real draft smokeys at the tail end of the draft.

Rest assured, this is a very good year for Melbourne to have so many selections in what will be remembered in years to come as a very solid draft meeting. Expect the Demons to aim for a ruckman and possibly some bottom aged players with their later picks. There is talent hidden deep there as well.

[Freddy Fuschia 747]

Melbourne would be doing well to draft one of the players highlighted above with picks 17 and 19. Blease and either Lisle or Lynch would make a good pair for the Demons but remember, once the first few selections are made, it could well be chaos out there!

I've just been watching a video of the championships grand final and it was interesting that Nathan Buckley nominated Lynch as the player with the most drive to succeed of the young players he was working with for the AFL. Blease also looked the goods in that game but I think he might be taken before 17.

[MO FINE 171]

The AFL's Kevin Sheahan has an interesting TOP THIRTY on its site. His list in alphabetical order is -

1. Dayne Beams
2. Sam Blease
3. Matthew Broadbent
4. Ayce Cordy
5. Aaron Cornelius
6. Phil Davis
7. Matthew DeBoer
8. Hamish Hartlett
9. Nick Heyne
10. Stephen Hill
11. Michael Hurley
12. Lewis Johnston
13. Tom Lynch
14. Shaun McKernan
15. Nicholas Naitanui
16. Daniel Rich
17. Mitch Robinson
18. Tom Rockliff
19. Jordan Roughead
20. Ryan Schoenmakers
21. Steele Sidebottom
22. James Strauss
23. Nick Suban
24. Tom Swift
25. Jackson Trengove
26. Tyrone Vickery
27. Jack Watts
28. Chris Yarran
29. Will Young
30. Jack Ziebell

This is what he has to say about Jack Watts:

Jack Watts

Sandringham Dragons / Brighton Grammar

25/3/91, 195.8cm, 82.5kgs

One of the most talked about prospects leading into this year’s Draft, Jack is sure to be among the top picks.

He is an athletic, strong marking tall forward with excellent pace for his size.

He reads the game exceptionally and is an excellent shot on goal.

The stand-out performer at the 2008 NAB AFL Under 18 Championships, Jack was member of Vic Metro’s title winning team, earning All-Australian honours and the Larke Medal.

He was the carnival’s top goalkicker with 15 and ranked third overall for contested marks and scoring assists.

Fulfilling many a childhood dream he clinched Vic Metro victory in the opening round of the championships at the MCG, goaling from outside 50 with just seconds remaining in the match. The goal – his fourth for the match – put Metro three points ahead of their Country rivals and ultimately sealed the win.

He impressed again against South Australia gathering 17 disposals, seven marks and booting five goals.

Due to school football commitments with Brighton Grammar he played just a handful of TAC Cup matches but shone in round 19 against the Geelong Falcons gathering 23 possessions, nine marks and three goals.

An AIS-AFL graduate, Jack’s athleticism for a key position player was most impressive at the 2008 NAB AFL Draft Camp, recording the second best times for both the 20-metre sprint (2.82 sec) and agility run (8.03 seconds). He also ranked in the top 10 per cent at the camp for vertical leap and in the repeat sprints.

Q&A

Who have been your key influences? In general, my dad but in a sporting sense Michael Jordan. I grew up watching his tapes and his games. He’s just a freak and got it done when he needed to. David Dickson with the Victorian Under 18 side, he helped me relax and play my own game.

Which AFL players do you watch or model yourself on? Not really one particular player, I just look for the best in different players and try and work myself around that so I guess Nick Riewoldt, the hard running power forward, Steve Johnson for a bit of magic – and also the tough midfielders.

What would your coaches and teammates say your strengths are? They’d probably say I was a bit of a joker and have a bit of fun. But also that I am pretty dangerous on the field and when I get the ball I usually do something good with it.

[Mister Ed 317]

Who's Will Young?

[H_T 3,049]

Very happy with the highlighted options Stevo. These are the main ones I have been focussing on: - Zaharkis, Blease, Shoenmakers and Lynch. Not so much Walters, so I must read up a bit more on him - Happy to read about his "unbelievable skills by foot". I don't really see Lisle as part of Melbourne's wish list, but I could be wrong. Thanks for the write up..Cheers.

I would be very, very happy if the Dees secured 2 out of the 4 highlighted in RED with picks 17 and 19. If I was to choose it would be very difficult, thinking I wish I could get 3 of them. Hard to split. But I will say Blease and Shoenmakers. If Blease is already gone, I'd have to take Shoenmakers and then Zaharkis. If Schoenmakers and Blease are gone, its definitely Lynch then Zaharkis.

Then with pick 35, the best available player, preferably of the midfield variety. The remaining picks to suit as required.

[Whispering_Jack 30,580]

An interesting example of the chaos theory and how it applies to the draft is the fact that Burgo changed his selections on the afl website today as follows:-

Matt Burgan says:

Since publishing my Phantom Draft at 2pm AEDT on Wednesday, it has been revealed that Fremantle will almost certainly be selecting Stephen Hill with pick No.3.

As a result, I have reordered the first 20 picks as follows:

1. Jack Watts (Melbourne)

2. Nick Naitanui (West Coast)

3. Stephen Hill (Fremantle)

4. Hamish Hartlett (Port Adelaide)

5. Daniel Rich (Essendon)

6. Michael Hurley (Carlton)

7. Chris Yarran (Brisbane Lions)

8. Tyrone Vickery (Richmond)

9. Jack Ziebell (North Melbourne)

10. Jackson Trengove (Adelaide)

11. Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood)

12. Lewis Johnston (Sydney Swans)

13. Tom Lynch (St Kilda)

14. Ayce Cordy (Western Bulldogs)

15. Ashley Smith (Geelong)

16. Sam Blease (Hawthorn)

17. Ryan Schoenmakers (Melbourne)

18. Tom Swift (West Coast)

19. Dayne Beams (Melbourne)

20. Phil Davis (West Coast

So Burgo reckons that a change of selection at # 3 can affect the entire make up of the draft. Suddenly Tom Lynch who was going to Melbourne at # 17 is off to St. Kilda at # 13 etc, etc, etc. That's chaos and tells me that we should be prepared to expect anything on Saturday morning.

[e25 5]

An interesting example of the chaos theory and how it applies to the draft is the fact that Burgo changed his selections on the afl website today as follows:-

So Burgo reckons that a change of selection at # 3 can affect the entire make up of the draft. Suddenly Tom Lynch who was going to Melbourne at # 17 is off to St. Kilda at # 13 etc, etc, etc. That's chaos and tells me that we should be prepared to expect anything on Saturday morning.

You mean we could get Watts, Naitanui & Rich?

[Whispering_Jack 30,580]

You mean we could get Watts, Naitanui & Rich?

Now that would definitely be chaos!

I can't believe that Daniel Rich might possibly fall in favour to fifth ranking. I still regard him as the best player on what I have seen of the players available and the one most ready to step into the AFL and succeed straight away. I just hope he's not there when the mongrels at Carlton are ready for pick 6 - we'll never hear the end of it from Blues fans.

[Goodvibes 3,596]

I can't quite understand how Hill going to Freo at 3 can influence Lynch going to St Kilda at 13 and Blease sliding to 16.

[alpha33 325]

I can't quite understand how Hill going to Freo at 3 can influence Lynch going to St Kilda at 13 and Blease sliding to 16.

Neither can I quite frankly but I suppose that there might be some cumulative effect from previous selections or just plainly due to the fact Burgan's changing his mind on more than one selection. Any way you look at it, I reckon his credibility has taken a pummeling over this.

The chaos theory however, is a good explanation of how a club's choices can be altered by one out of left field selection. This story from WA shows how Fremantle's decision on Stephen Hill might still be affected by earlier picks -

DOCKERS SETTLE ON HILL, WITH A PROVISO

[H_T 3,049]

An interesting example of the chaos theory and how it applies to the draft is the fact that Burgo changed his selections on the afl website today as follows:-

So Burgo reckons that a change of selection at # 3 can affect the entire make up of the draft. Suddenly Tom Lynch who was going to Melbourne at # 17 is off to St. Kilda at # 13 etc, etc, etc. That's chaos and tells me that we should be prepared to expect anything on Saturday morning.

Exactly WJ. Again on SEN last night just before 7:30pm, Burgo changed his mind agian in relation to pick #3. He has swayed between Rich and Hill a bit now. I think he settled on Hill after some new information came to him just after 5pm last night. Expect anything come tomorrow.