deelusions from afar

Have just had a watch of the replay and it's amazing how many of the views expressed here seem way off the mark (in my opinion). Some people forget that we were playing an opponent so are not going to have everything go our way. Take a look at the Freo forums (or any team that is lost this week) and it looks very similar to us after a loss - just switch a few players names around and we wouldn't know the difference! Not a perfect performance by any stretch but all teams develop over the season and I would have definitely taken this performance prior to the game if given the option. Freo had injuries but we did as well - No Brown or Weiderman makes us look very fragile on paper. We will have a better indication after the next few weeks. So aside from Lever / May dominance, Jordon's game, some of my takeaways were: - Spargo and Kossie possies forward of centre lead to goals. They are the best at lowering their eyes and finding people in dangerous spots inside 50. - Hunt played much better than I remembered. His job is high risk high reward and sometimes it doesn't come off. But when it does, it is dynamic and in this game his closing speed was critical in a number of instances. When people like Hunt (it happened to a number of players) get caught holding the ball it is usually more a symptom of what is (not) happening up the field. - I have loved Jones because he carried the team for so long. But beyond him getting 300 games I don't think he should be in the team. If not for his years of service and proximity to 300 he would be the one I would drop first. - We missed A LOT of easy goals - Petracca, TMac hitting the post, Fritsch, Lever after a 50 and Jackson in the last quarter. Tighten a few of these up and it looks pretty different. - Centre clearances are a problem. We were unlucky a number of times. But there were others where they just got us on the outside. This happened around the ground a fair bit as well. When the player standing on the defensive side of the contest gets sucked in, we look very vulnerable when we lose it. Having said that, this happens to every team and we did it to Freo a couple of times too. As Fyfe mentioned before the game, a key part of the strategy is to force their opponents into the contest in the centre square so that they have space on the outside. What I like is we are trying lots of players in there and no doubt will be doing lots of homework and analysis on this - there is certainly a lot of scope for improvement here! - Rivers started very strongly in the first quarter. Seemed to rush his disposals after that - given our defence was largely on top, not sure if he was given a different role after quarter time as he was much quieter. - I thought one of my absolute favourites in Nev might be on borrowed time. But I thought he was solid - won a number of crucial one on ones. I did notice however, that the dockers looked to exploit him and Salem's lack of height in the second half when they tried to narrow their eyes more going forward. Will be interesting to see if Goodwin looks to bring in Hibberd or even Petty / Smith so we are not exposed in this way in future with teams that have multiple dangerous key forwards. - Brayshaw did not attend one centre bounce. Given Gus has played his best games in the centre square, Viney is out and some of the other players that attended centre bounces included Kozzie, Sparrow, Jordon, Harmes, ANB, Jones, I can't work out what is going on. He kicked a couple of nice passes and got a few good tackles in but if he's not getting a run onball when Viney is not in the team, then why wasn't he traded? Maybe then we could have traded for a specialist winger? I like him as a player but it seems like he's losing in being played out of position and we're losing in him (and Jones) playing as wingers - what am I missing?

Agree - this is a bit of a surprise for me. Surely with Oliver, Petracca, Harmes, Jordan, Brayshaw we have enough centre square players? Sparrow is meant to be quick but he hasn't shown anything to suggest he's providing us a point of difference from what we already have (hope to be proven wrong). To me this suggests that Petracca will be spending more time forward.

Does anyone know of a way to sync up radio coverage to tv? Like others here I'm generally not a big fan of the callers on the tv coverage

Went for a run past Goschs paddock this morning. Noticed Brown and Weiderman doing some run throughs. When I came back from the Tan I saw that there were a few other players there too - Smith and someone else. To me it looked like Baker but I didn't know he was injured / in rehab. It may have been someone else but I couldn't think of who. Watched Brown and Weid taking shots at goal after that. Both looked to me moving freely but at the same time weren't streching themselves (kicking from around 30-40m out - although for Brown he still starts a long way back from that). They both kicked some nice goals - Brown in particular seemed on target. Can't wait to have them back in the side - they are both very big units! I wonder whether the fact that they are injured and recovering at the same time might help build a bit of chemistry that translates on field.

Don't think we'd want Tomlinson and Petty in the same defence. Both have a lot to offer but both have a little bit of a weakness in leg speed. This is largely made up for by their other attributes and team mates around them ... but this week against Freo I fear they could cut us up if we go too tall and slow. May, Lever, Tomlinson, Rivers, Salem, Hunt, Jetta - that's our back 7 for mine. Will be interesting howe use Gawn - often against inexperienced rucks he has a field day with D50 marks - given their forward line I think Freo would be better placed kicking it in along the ground!

I feel like he could be a great find for us - he runs both ways, can play inside and outside, is a good kick and showed against the Dogs that he can spread from the contest. We don't need him to be a star - just to be able to complement the players we have in there already. Could he be the "moneyball player" that enables those around him to reach their potential? I hope so!

Great analysis. I agree re Bowey and Petty - would love to have them in but they will probably make them earn it in the VFL first and come in if the ones in the team fail to fire. I agree with your reasoning but at the same time it seems a big stretch to leave Brayshaw out (esp when Viney will probably be looking to come in in round 2). The question for mine will be whether we'd play all four of Kozzie, Chandler, ANB and Spargo. It would definitely be a different look. I don't mind it but i suspect it may mean that Kozzie / Spargo might get more time up the ground eg on the wing. That means that Vanders spot will be under threat. Will be really interesting to see what they go with.

That's even less subtle!

A player that is a lock for debut for mine is James Jordan. Every interview with anyone at the club signals him out as a standout in the preseason - not sure what else he can do to get a gig. Especially with Viney out of the team. Would be surprised if he's the winger but he might be part of the rotations?

Yeah I think with all the research happening into concussion, the AFL definitely don't want to be on the wrong side of history. But I don't see how a sub has anything to do with that? Interestingly coaches eg Goody was saying how with the change in the number of rotations it's important that the rule apply to all injuries (not just concussion). But I would have thought with less rotations the disadvantage of having a player out for the game would actually impact the game less - would still be a factor but less than a few years back when teams would exploit this by upping the rotations.

This is the part I don't understand. We have tried this and everyone hated it. What's changed?

I get sick of this type of talk each year too when it has almost never been backed up - but makes me wonder whether its a case of the media / comms / marketing areas of the club saying that if they aren't "upbeat" about our prospects then it costs us X memberships which mean x dollars etc etc.

I agree - selfless football is great but sometimes you need someone to back themselves in and take the risks. I think where we fall down as a team if the selfless acts when we don't have the ball - gut running, shepherding etc that the best teams seem to do much better.

Great post! It's easy to forget this. I remember hearing an interview with Balme when he joined at the end of the 2016 season. There was speculations of a board challenge and they'd been woeful off field. Everyone wanted to get rid of hardwick and he somehow survived the review. When Balme said he thought Richmond were very close (like Geelong were before they won flags) he got laughed out of the interview. It's amazing how quickly things can change!

I think the opposition have done a lot of homework on us since our second half of 2018 (6-6-6 etc haven't helped either). In some respects it's easy for the opposition as Gawn wins the majority of taps so it's just a matter of analysing where he likes to hit it and nullify the player he's hitting to. I felt early on last year Oliver was usually his target and Oliver was tackled / held / scragged before he had even received the ball. After a few holding the ball decisions it lead to a bit of panicking and quick handballs / kicks which ended in turnovers. While I think the umpires should have clamped down on this, it was disappointing that we weren't able to adapt - with Gawn and Oliver (and Petracca and Viney) in there, we should be the team that is able to make things unpredictable for opposition teams. It's clearly not an easy fix but it is good to have some experienced fresh eyes looking at it in Yze. I'm hoping this is the breath of fresh air our mids needed.

Won't happen. Not a bad idea but Hunt has spent the pre-season training in the backline. With the rule changes his explosive speed from defence can be a weapon again. Our forward half doesn't look potent but I think v the dogs that was actually more about the midfield not getting it in there enough or in spots that we are able to lock it into. I'm hoping that Kozzie / Chandler / Spargo / ANB / whichever resting midfielders are there can put on manic pressure that creates turnovers. We looked ok v Richmond - lets see how we go with most of our midfield back.

Maybe - but I think you'll find that these criticisms would have been leveled at every team over the last few years. Richmond copped plenty last year and went on to win the flag.

Or they may be doing it and just might not be good enough? There's so many factors that add up to a being a successful team - recruiting, revelopment, game plan, conditioning, skills, injuries, culture etc Every club is trying their darndest to make finals and win it. You need a bit of luck and sometimes things just need to click into place. I'm not saying that's us - but I sure as hell hope it is! Maclure is dead right because it's easy. Pick any club that hasn't won a flag in more than 30 years and it's culture, it's cos they're soft, no one is putting their hand up etc etc. But he actually has no idea as he is not close with anyone at the club and does not do any research - ever. For what it's worth, I remember tralling through the Port Big Footy thread prior to our game against them last year. So many calls for their coach to be sacked, that we were going to smash them, that their season was over etc when they went very close to being a grand finalist and many think they'll be right up there again this season. Might be an interesting read for some to realise sometimes it's not as bad as we supporters think and that things can turn pretty quickly. https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/rd-9-vs-melbourne-changes.1243698/page-19

Disagree - I have heard him stick the boots into the Dees for years. He makes these big statements but really has no idea what he's talking about. I'm not saying everything is fine with our culture but I won't take notice of what Maclure thinks as I see him as a Dinosaur of a different era. If you listen to him talk about any team (not just Melbourne) he wheels out the same narratives when things are going poorly for a team - he doesn't do the research or keep up with the changes, just shoots his mouth off and that's enough to start a chain of articles. Do people seriously think that Max Gawn isn't "doing it"? Do you think the senior players aren't getting together and talking about it? Gimme a break. The AFL is a very competitive industry where 9 teams lose every weekend - we're in the preseason with half our first choice team not playing against a nearly full strength team that will be in contention this year.

I think if you look at preseason form the last 5-10 years you'll find it's generally not a good guide for how teams go throughout the season. The Bulldogs midfield (inside and outside) towelled us up last year and it will be even better this year - I rate them highly and would not be surprised to see them in the top 4. They reportedly set themselves for the game. We played them missing half our forward line (Brown, Weid, Kozzie) and half our midfield (Viney, Brayshaw, Oliver) so I don't think we need to read too much into it. Even at full strength I would think the Bulldogs would be better than us at the moment so the loss cannot be a huge surprise. Its disappointing that our second string midfielders (Sparrow, Jordan, Baker etc) did not go up a gear but I don't think we can expect these guys to carry the load - but they will be useful when they have some more experience and muscle around them. My biggest concern is that we still seem to be unsure about who will play the other wing. The biggest positive is the form of May and Lever - they look set for big seasons. If they can keep up that form, that will keep us in a lot of games while we sort out our issues forward of the ball - fingers crossed its not far away from clicking when our prime movers return.

I also like the idea of Fritsch being given a go on the wing - maybe rotating there and forward along with someone else. I like the idea of having someone like Salem (or Bowey) given time on the wing / half forward as they could do a lot to improve our connection to the forwards. However unless we see Salem given some time there or half-forward v the dogs then i'd say it's unlikely as Goody tends to have people train in a particular role and doesn't make big positional changes during the season (unless forced to by injury). Will be very interesting to see which players line up on the wing v the dogs - I'm not filled with great confidence with Baker and Jones but of course would love to be proven wrong.

What I'm interested to see is what happens when Viney and Brayshaw come back - who goes out? From last year you'd say Sparrow and Jordan. But this role that Harmes plays in the centre square is what Viney seemed to do for much of last year - particularly if you have Oliver and Petracca as the other players in there.

I heard Richo say on the weekend that the defensive part of Farmer's game is strong but he still needs to work on a few things in the offensive part of his game. I found this interesting as often it is the other way round for small forwards. I wouldn't write him off yet - given the long term injury list, I'd be happy to rookie him and allow him to battle with our other small forwards to win a spot on the list next year.

Haven't watched enough of Majak forward to know how he goes at this but I don't think being the stay at home key forward is really TMac's strength. Brown is great on the lead with his height and reach but isn't really the long range get out kick. Weid has shown flashes of potentialbut not consistently. What am I saying? It will never happen but as Max is our best contested mark, if he was playing deep forward then that would give opposition defences much more to worry about - you wouldn't actually need many more talls around him (esp if Fritsch, Petracca and Jacko are around). If I was a defender and Melbourne were bombing it in long, he would be the one I'd be most worried about.

You're entitled to your opinion (none of us really know) but if you think that a savy operator like Jason Taylor is going to spill the beans on a fan podcast then I don't know what to tell you. If you listen to his interviews, he talks up the players he's drafted as if they are the best players in the draft - I don't have a problem with this as clearly he rates them very highly. But it doesn't mean he doesn't rate other players higher - if he comes out and says "yeah we really rated Holmes and hoped he'd slip through to our first pick", it would lead to a meltdown on here - supporters would be saying we traded away next year's pick to get a player we didn't want, and for Laurie / Bowey they're essentially told the club wanted someone else. Some players wouldn't handle that very well. It's just not going to happen. It's probably all mute anyway - I for one am very happy to have two great decision makers and kickers as additions to the side. And I suspect with his freakish running ability, that Rosman has some similar attributes to Holmes - maybe we wouldn't have gone for Rosman if we picked Holmes? It might have looked more like Holmes, Bowey and Carroll. Who knows?