deelusions from afar

For those that are unhappy with the first two selections (mostly due to their size) consider the following: 21. Melbourne: Jake Bowey Position: Small midfielder/forward Height: 175cm Weight: 67 kg 22. Melbourne: Bailey Laurie Position: Small forward/midfielder Height: 179cm Weight: 78kg Here are some of the players they have been likened to (at current playing size and weight): Caleb DANIEL (pick 46 in 2014) MEDIUM DEFENDER 24yrs 168cm 72kg Brent DANIELS (pick 27 in 2017) FORWARD 21yrs 170cm 74kg Shai BOLTON (pick 29 in 2016) MEDIUM FORWARD 22yrs 175cm 77kg Lachie NEALE (pick 58 in 2011) MIDFIELDER 27yrs 177cm 85kg Tom PAPLEY (Rookie 2015) MEDIUM FORWARD 24yrs 178cm 76kg

I felt the same... but apparently the knock on him is his kicking - not terrible but not consistent. Seemingly elite kicking was a non-negotiable for our first two picks

Don't like the tactic but i think it's been executed perfectly - if an interstate club was 50/50 with him and another player it will be enough to sway them. If they're set on him, I don't think it will make much difference.

Had to do a covid test i think

Isn't that Tim Lamb's job i.e. contract management?

Having a guess at what we might pick based on needs - obviously there's limitations when trying to fit some of these player in particular boxes. And of course there's the live trading of picks which I haven't taken into account. I think if any of the players in group 1 (wing / outside midfielders) are available we will select them with our first two picks but it's unlikely that more than one will still be there at our pick (and potentially none will be) Once all from group 1 are gone, I think we will try to find someone to help out Kozzie with forward pressure and improve inside f50 entry (essentially Spargo's position but maybe also Hunt / ANB). There seem to be a number of great options here - most likely one or two would be gone. Then there are a bunch of players that could be great value but don't exactly address a need eg an inside mid with explosive speed / excellent skills. Or a key forward that will take time to develop / the greatest player ever that JT has hidden through covid. I don't know a lot about Max Holmes but it sounds as if we are very keen on him. By the sound of things he might not last to our third pick (but who really knows), but if we picked him with our second, then small forward types like Bowey / Winder are still likely to be there for our third. So i'm thinking it might be something like: 1. Cook / Carroll 2. Holmes 3. Bowey / Winder Group 1 - Winger / Outside midfielder - Finlay Macrae - classy, composure, evasive - everything we need - Archie Perkins - explosive, x factor, run and carry, inside 50 kicking - Jack Carroll - classy LF, evasive, inside / outside - Brayden Cook - tall speedy winger / half forward with goof aerial ability Group 2 - Small forward / outside midfielder - Errol Gulden (Syd Academy) - speed, agility, crumbing, precise kicking inside f50 - Bailey Laurie - speed, agility & evasion, lowers eyes before entering f50 - Blake Coleman (Bris Academy) - speedy, high pressure, classy skills - Jake Bowey - speed, agility, evasiveness - Isiah Winder - athletic, good composure and skills Group 3 - Other / Smokies - Caleb Poulter - tall explosive midfielder - Max Holmes - speed & endurance - Connor Stone - medium forward with tricks, run and carry - Sam Berry - aggressive inside midfielder with great acceleration and precise kick - Ryan Angwin - competitive contested utility with great endurance - Kaine Baldwin - dominant KPF that has suffered 2 ACLs - Fraser Rosman - Key position size player with freak speed and agility - Jackson Callow - key position utility who excels in one on one marking

So are we taking 3 or 4 players - I thought with the players being shifted to the rookie list we could now take 4?

From what I observed Mahoney was a quality person that Jackson had groomed to be his replacement. Bartlett and Jackson didn't see eye to eye and so when Jackson left, he brought in one of his mates (Pert) rather than someone who had been mentored by Jackson. There's more than one way to get from A to B so it doesn't mean this is a terrible thing - Mahoney has been here a long time. But given what Jackson was able to do, I would have felt better had his choice got the gig rather than Pert. Once that decision was made, it was going to be hard for Mahoney to stay on long term. I don't feel particularly confident with Richo or Pert - especially when you look at where they've been and how they present in the media - but with all of this I'm only seeing the tip of the iceberg and i hope to god (or the devil ?) they prove me wrong!

I wonder if they had to negotiate Josh's salary? ?

Love your work - I haven't seen any of these boys live (so what do I know) but the idea of getting Macrae, Carroll and Winder from what I have read and seen would be a steal! Definitely addressing our biggest needs.

I remember you (and I think others) saying he's exactly the player we need much earlier in the year before many on here had heard of any of this year's draftees. Class, composure, skills sounds great - but the fact that he's actually winning a lot of his own ball and isn't known to be especially quick... does he really fit our need? I know to label players inside or outside is too simplistic but if you say he reminds you of Simon Black, wasn't he the guy that got the ball out at the bottom of the packs (admittedly had great finishing skills too)? Not being critical of your opinion but you've seen him a bit so can probably explain for the rest of us. The last thing we want is someone who we're hoping will play halfback / wing who ends up being an inside mid like Jordan (as he'll end up being behind about 8 other players). I'm probably also fearful of what happened with Trengove - was meant to be a class player that could do it all (inside / outside) but seemed to be a bit slow for AFL to show it in the end (obviously injuries and our development at the time played a huge part).

Could we trade 18, 19 and 28 for 14 and 16? Is that a win win given how many players the pies have to take - we might be able to get the two that we have our eye on most.

How has he made it into Vic - thought the border doesn't open until the 8th?

Is it just me or does it seem like this years draft is a giant lottery? Obviously it always is but there seems to be about 30 names that could be a first rounder. Obviously there's a group in the top 5, and then after that there's about 20 names to fit into the next 10 and on it goes... Seems like it's not a bad year to have multiple picks in the top 30 (even with the academy / father son selections).... or (hopefully not for us) it could be a very even draft of low quality

I think Sam will benefit from not having the number 1 defender in 2021. Will be interesting how this translates in terms of the targets that midfielders kick to* in 2021 - will he have less opportunities as he's not the main target. Having said that, I felt Fritsch was often a target going forward and had he kicked straight (prior to this year a very reliable kick) we would have looked much better. * this is assuming that our midfielders are kicking to targets and not blazing away.

Disagree - we'd be getting him for a late draft pick. If it were at the expense of drafting some good talent in, then sure but it won't affect our early draft picks.

Admittedly only seen highlights but don't see the resemblance with someone like petracca at all. I remember when petracca got drafted, he was heavier than most keyforwards (i think 8kg heavier than McCartin). Perkins may end up an explosive player but he's about 20kg lighter than Petracca was in his draft year at a simialr height!

Not sure if people are aware but I think KK has retired - apparently on his instagram and the club page

Thanks LH. Was kind of hoping we would draft 3 kids as a scatter gun approach might net someone who has slipped through this year. If what you say is true, they may also have their eyes on someone in the early teens and be prepared to swap 18 and 19 to get him knowing that at 28 we are still likely to land a player we would consider at 19. I think as others have stated, depending on how it plays out on draft night, a number of picks between 19 and 28 may end up being used as points for academy / father sons so there may not be a huge difference between 19 and 28 in the end.

Do we really know this. Is this based on the fact that he was reportedly disappointed with his placing in the bnf or something else? That's all I've heard - which to me just shows he's a very competitive person. It might also show that the coaches are setting high expectations with him which may be unfair - but also may be what is required to get him to the next level. I thought Oliver had a lot of his best games this year against the lower teams as he had a bit more freedom and was able to explode away from the contest. Against many of the top teams, he was worn like a glove and scragged well before he got the ball and when he did get it his disposals were under so much pressure that he didn't hit targets. I feel like he needed more protection (mostly from the umpires upholding the rules) but it was disappointing we weren't really able to adjust to the tactics that good opposition teams used against him at the stoppages.

As others have said I normally rate KM's draft analysis but thought his phantom draft prediction seemed off for us this given there seems to be a number of players around our picks that would suit our needs (wing, outside mid / small forward). Someone on bf obviously thought the same and asked KM about it - he wrote:

Agree 100%. Don't people remember Salem was meant to be moving to the wing in early 2019 and it didn't work. Admittedly half the team was underdone at the start of 2019 but he didn't look like he belonged there - i think it might be due to his tank as you suggest. I think there's more chance of him succeeding as a half forward than a winger. I'm hoping we can find a draftee or 2 who has the tools to make this position their own - let them fight it out with Baker / Hunt for 2021. Some have suggested Rivers might be able to play this role. Did he play any junior footy there?

Assuming we keep picks 18, 19 and 28 I think it's likely we will pick best available with the first pick. With 18 we'd go for the slider - if one of Perkins, Macrae, Cook, Nik Cox, Jack Carroll, etc manage to slip through 19 we'd probably look at any others that slipped through & otherwise get the best player available to fill the needs (wing, HFF, FP) with good skills and pace (ideally). So maybe Isaiah Winder, Bailey Lawry. It's going to be an exciting night!

Would have loved to pickup Witherden - looks like we could have (if he wanted to come to us) for late picks. But definitely happy with the Mahoney deals esp re Preuss and Brown

So (if we don't package our current draft picks for a higher pick) we could use 18, 19 and 28 pick a backup ruckman as a DFA and rookie someone else? Is that right?