DeeSpencer

A quick look through his instagram reveals a very unusual character. Makes me more concerned about what dazzle has said. I'll take a chance on a knockabout country lad who makes a poor decision, but I'm seeing a lot of photos - including with Tom Bugg's business partner - that don't impress me. Plus the more you watch of that kicking the more frightening it is.

His kicking certainly isn't using a great technique but I'm not sure he's even played enough AFL to really know what it's like. At the Pies he was clearly bought in to run and carry and that's what he did with great success, then teams caught on and he ran himself in to trouble. Then he was banned before he got to make that next adjustment/development. Are we sure he will even be set for a half back role? Could play midfield or half forward. Just for the pace alone I'd take a chance on him as depth...unfortunately we've gone and signed up all our depth players already!

I can’t help but see the Atley in him, but Atley also became a very useful player this year and some of Ash’s kicks look better than Atley’s. Overall technique a bit more sound? He looks the kind of flawed but high upside player you’d love at 10 but not at 3. Can he chase down and tackle, maybe start his career as a forward? I’m still waiting for some more highlights videos to drop to see a player who really catches my eye for pick 3. Serong and Young both have a lot to like but don’t quite tick every box.

Every single Saints fan lost faith in him a long time before Richo did. Gave him way too many chances. Could be a good player again if he finds some hardness and speed but otherwise just a list clogger

You're reading too much in to that. There's no point offering Frost a below par contract that he won't take. It then gets leaked to the media - 'Melbourne offered him 350k, he's worth 600k, how cheap are the demons'. If we've made peace with him leaving there's no point chasing after him with a below market deal. I doubt Oscar is the long term answer and I'd bet the club knows that he's not a world beater, he's just a cheap option who's signed up and it's not impossible to win games with him. If May and Lever play like the A graders we hope they are then we can't be spending big money on a 3rd guy who isn't even that good.

Geelong use Tom Stewart and GWS use Nick Haynes as interceptors who get tasked with minding a half forward and peeling back, Tigers either get Vlastuin free or have Grimes peel back deeper. Lever has to win is share of one on ones but I'd still be starting him off dictating terms to a bad forward than tasking him with a good tall opponent.

Yeah I watched that one and thought geez he's very Whitfield like, maybe without the dual sided skills (one shank, one nice jab on the right) and an inch or two shorter. Would have to see whether he's up for the contested ball and if the pace holds up at AFL level but he's a very smooth outside runner and kicker. I think the dream result would be to trade pick 3 for something like picks 10/12 and get Stephens and a forward/mid type player. By the way I'm probably mad but just seeing Dom Barry involved a in those pieces of play....I still think he's too good for state league footy. 21 disposals at 86% and 26 goals....bring him over for a 3rd go at AFL footy?

I'm a Petty fan but he's a little slow and inconsistent at the contests, probably will always be better suited up the ground. I think we need to get back to using late round/rookie picks as they were intended to be used and taking some project talls.

Nev Jetta and Steve May are 2 pretty handy players. Richmond have embraced the need for speed and found 2 very good small forwards - with decent draft picks mind you - in Rioli and Bolton. Then in the last year they've had such a strong list and culture that they've rolled the dice on guys with high upside but known off field concerns in Stack and Pickett. They handled Stack really well, having him live with the coach and really push his case for a list spot when 17 other clubs didn't take the risk. Then they gambled on Pickett with the mid season draft despite a long injury lay off and have been rewarded. I'd certainly encourage our recruiters to keep looking for guys like Bolton and Rioli to pick up in the draft, as for the other guys it's a matter of trusting your culture and staff and knowing what is and isn't a risk worth taking. Richmond have been rewarded for embracing new rules and being smart to get ahead of the competition.

When it comes to games against teams with 2 gun talls we'll be in a bit of trouble though. Take Richmond, if we send May to Lynch then it's Petty/Oscar or an outgunned Lever trying to cover Riewoldt or vice versa on Lynch, not a good result. I never had all that much trust in Frost defensively anyway, too many mental mistakes defending. Even if we kept him I'd be advocating heading to the draft for a young athletic key defender of the future.

Surely we've all seen enough of Lever one on one by now to know that's not the answer. We'll need another tall and ideally one with the flexibility to play on fast medium sized guys, but sometimes it's worth taking a step backwards for a year or two developing or trading in a long term answer. It's not impossible to find key defenders from the delistings or state leagues either.

Gaff’s 27 now and on a decent contract that probably gets extended at a new club. After watching him this year I’m not convinced he’s a big value player anymore. Its not part of the Eagles game plan but he doesn’t really break lines on the wing anymore so they’ve moved him inside where he provides spread and a handball option to their stronger mids. His kicking is reasonably reliable but not as damaging as it was or was meant to be. I’d want a lot back with him to include pick 3.

Extra speed/fitness compared to Gus means he can run well on the wing or half forward but his kicking is just as bad. At this stage he’s looking like a similar player to Langdon.

Nash hasn't shown anything yet, I wouldn't have any interest. O'Brien maybe, but he just started to look like a regular in the Hawks side so they probably aren't keen to give him up.

Whilst I agree with your point Grimes is lightening quick and Broad has very good pace too. And of course Rance if fit. Pies - Moore and Howe. GWS - Corr and Haynes. Brisbane - Gardiner has the speed on the lead. Anyway, May is a super quick full back who can play small or tall, finding a speedy back pocket will be important if Jetta doesn't have much left will matter too. But not as much as the mids, forwards and even another back flanker.

No point overpaying a limited player, we'll do that enough with free agents, if we can get something for Frost instead of signing him up to an expensive deal then dropping him to the VFL then I can live with that. If Hawthorn are willing to pay him more than we are then you'd think there's at least a 3rd round pick coming back. 2nd rounder is optimistic but we can hope.

Taranto is 21, will be 22 next season and just signed on until 2022. Nice idea, but the Giants aren't letting him go. I'm not convinced he'll be a 1 club player but the Giants can't afford to lose him after Finlayson's grand final and Himmelberg's quiet September. He'd also be so expensive in a trade you'd almost ask him to become a free agent. A team can't afford to pay him 2 million a season and trade the picks required to get him as well. Personally I don't think he's worth it but you'd offer him 10 mil over 5 years from 2021 if you wanted him.

There's no reason to deviate from the future 2nd round pick offer until it gets to AFL mediation with 60 seconds left in the trade period. Ed Langdon knows how business works. He knows we want him and will pay him handsomely. Just relax and wait this one out. At some stage Freo will have to decide if they want a fair offer of a future 2nd or if they want to risk getting nothing.

Why did someone bump this thread from last year?

Yep that's why I'd have a word. Going to Essendon with Worsfold is far different to going with Rutten. Meanwhile he'd be in a nice position at Melbourne if we did the one in one out that St Kilda, North and Carlton have done, plus we're at such a position on the ladder now that he'll get credit for making us better even if we barely improved!

Valid point, my only counter to that is Caldwell as an inside mid will be behind Coniglio, Hopper, Taranto, De Boer, most likely Ward and whatever combinations of Kelly, Whitfield, Greene and Williams rotate in. Plus they'll be adding Green. If he sits in the NEAFL all year he's not helping them win games and is losing trade value. Meanwhile they can get a forward or back flanker to replace him. If I was them I might like Young just as much as Caldwell and Young has a chance to replace Heath Shaw in their best side within 2 years. Of course the problem for us is Caldwell might be stuck behind Viney, Gus, Oliver etc for a midfield spot immediately as well but if he's as good as pick 3 and we get some extra picks thrown in then it's worth it.

Just remembered about Tomlinson compo, we could be paying him overs to create an extra draft pick for GWS to then give back to us in the pick 3 deal. That would be clever. Salary for a draft pick. If we can bump Tomlinson's compo from after their 2nd round pick to after the first round then we're doing them a huge favour. As you've suggested I'd do pick 3 and a future 2nd (20-30) for Caldwell (rough value pick 10), pick 12 and pick 18. If we do them a favour on Tomlinson and they suddenly get pick 20 in compensation instead of pick 38 then they might give us an even better deal. Then I think we should look to move pick 12 in to the top 10 (depending on how we rate the kids). I'm a fan of trading down but you have to get an A grader with the trade. Tyson was never an A grader. Caldwell might be. No a grader, no deal.

Every year I like to do this as an exercise to see where our list shapes up and how we can catch up with the premiers. The usual caveats are: 1. You can't ever copy a side, you'll never be as good as they are, plus the game always evolves 2. We've got our own strengths to build around as well. But you have to at least be taking the positives from their style when you can and adapting to trends before you're stuck miles behind. So.... FB: Short Grimes Broad HB: Houli Astbury Vlastuin C; Caddy Cotchin Ellis HF: Lambert Riewoldt Bolton FF: Rioli Lynch Castagna Foll: Soldo Martin Prestia Int: Baker Edwards Nankervis Pickett Backline: Grimes: Best equivalent May. Other options: Forst. Role: Plays like an NFL free safety where he sits deepest so he can prevent out the back goals and can then man up dangerous forwards once inside 50. Pace and spoiling are key components, but reading the play is vital too, to know when to attack. Some intercept marking and reliable ball use important too. Grimes taking over from Rance and being just as good was huge for the Tigers this year. Broad: Frost. Options: Hibberd, J Smith. Hore. Role: Plays a mixture of zone and man. Has to have the height to man talls who come off Grimes and up the ground. Reading the play and winning or halving contests are vital here. Ball use not as important. The strong safety for NFL fans. Astbury: Oscar Mc. Options: Frost, Lever, Weideman, Petty. Astbury takes the marking CHF and plays them pretty tight. Whilst the other defenders zone he's often tasked with a man, but does have to know when to handover and when to hand back. Many fans will be underwhelmed but Oscar is probably the most suited to this role. It's one I'd like to see Weideman trialled in. Vlastuin: Lever. Options: Hibberd, Hore, Harmes, Brayshaw. The middle linebacker of the backline, he's in absolutely everything. Any attempt to get through Richmond's backline involves getting through Vlastuin. He reads the play exceptionally, is a super strong interceptor (particularly for his size) and defender in the air, uses the ball well without being a great kick. Short: Jetta. Options: Hibberd, Hunt, J Wagner. Played deeper this year with Grimes moving in to Rance's role, so had more lock down jobs but is also a really good kick and has the agility to get out of trouble. Houli: Salem. Options: J Wagner, Jones, Hibberd. The quarterback, mainly zones off high half forwards and gets a stack of the ball and uses it perfectly. Baker: Harmes Options: Hunt, Spargo, Sparrow, Hibberd, Jordon. Very much the 7th defender Baker was really used in rotations to provide the relentless run and cover needed to fill the zones and provide support running that powers the Tigers rebounding game. Neat kick, good handballer, zippy, hard at it and good enough defensively (air and ground depsite a few errors in the prelim). Forwardline: Riewoldt: Weideman. Options: Petty, Melksham. Jack does a bit of everything these days. Leads up, chops and changes deep, tackles, knocks the ball on. Probably plays more like the 2nd banana but can also have his moments. Lynch: Tom McDonald. Options: Petty, Preuss. The main targets inside 50 who can do things on the ground but his best work is launching at the footy with strong leads and strong hands. Reliable set shot as well. Castagna: Fritsch. Options: Melksham, Hannan, J Smith. A speedy 3rd marking tall. Misses a lot of goals but makes up for them with defensive pressure. His ability to compete in the air for his size really adds value to the team. Rioli: Lockhart. Options: Hannan, Spargo, Chandler, Bedford, C Wagner. Rioli does some good things with the ball but I think it's his pressure and then link up work that gives most of his value. Low possessions, high impact. Bolton: Chandler. Options: Hannan, C Wagner, (maybe J Elliott). Another pressure small, does a bit more in the air and can provide some midfield time Lambert: ANB. Options: Jones, Melksham, C Wagner, Lockhart, Harmes. Contest to contest run, run and more run, with some goal kicking and ball use, plus midfield rotations if need be. Midfield: Soldo. Gawn. Soldo really took off as a tap run with some sneaky around the ground moves. Good player. Split time with Nank but I'd have him as the number 1. Cotchin. Viney. Options: Brayshaw, Harmes. Very much still the heart and soul despite less role with the ball. He's ability to pressure and set the physical tone stands out. Prestia: Oliver. Options: Brayshaw, Viney. The most prolific Tiger mid this year because his movement around stoppages is superb and he wins the ball when it's there. Took his kicking to new levels over the last two years, far more balanced and in control. Edwards: Brayshaw. Options: Salem, Lockhart. The glue in the Richmond side with sneaky fast handballs which Gus might be able to recreate. Defensively very sound for a slight body. Only Salem could get close to his overall ball use. Martin: Petracca. Options: Oliver, Melksham. Just a freak, knows when to go in to the middle, when to bob up around half forward and when to get the one on one deep and use it to full advantage. Caddy: Tomlinson. Options: Vanders, Melksham, Harmes, Jordon. The bigger body winger who is defensively sound at the clearances and then provides marking help forward or back. Endurance and positioning are vital. Ellis: ?Langdon. Options: Stretch, JKH, Baker. The gut running wingman who works super hard to get back and then to provide an option. Ball use and overhead ability is a bonus but just hard running to the right spots is so much of the job. Pickett: Oskar Baker. Options: Harmes, Vanders, C Wagner, Sparrow. A wing/midfield/forward player but I sense the Tigers treat this spot based on who gets picked. The plan was for Graham as a tagger/defensive mid but Pickett came in and got to play with freedom and use his pace. It's why I went with Baker as I think he's a guy we just have to get games in to and we can use him as a burst player in low minutes. Has to get fitter and improve his tackling/defensive stoppage work but the upside is high. Nankervis: Melksham. Options: Preuss, Dunkley, Sparrow, C Wagner. Very much the 22nd man for the Tigers I'd expect we'd try to get a player who can play forward/mid to add to versatility given Gawn can ruck 80% and we can use Tomlinson or key forwards to cover so the best replacement is someone who offers a bit up forward but can also mix it in the midfield. Weaknesses/Differences Backline: If Frost goes then we're short that 2nd and 3rd tall option who can swap on to the key forwards, he's not really a zone player anyway. Meanwhile Lever is probably too much of a zone player to ideally suit the Astbury or Broad roles, hence I had him in the Vlastuin role. Jetta and Hibberd are both better in the air than Tigers smalls but they don't have the same rebound. And I'm not sure there's a young player on the list capable of the Baker role. Harmes back is an option I like but it's putting an important midfielder in to a spot that could be filled with some smart recruiting or development. Midfield: Do we get Langdon, is Tomlinson quick enough to tackle and chase smalls effectively? Can our inside bulls sharpen up their defensive work and ball use - can they sharpen up at all! Is Baker a midfield pace option, are the forwards? Can we be skilled and pressure well enough that we can spare Salem and Harmes to play back or wing. If not then what do we do with Brayshaw - can he play half back? Forwards: Obviously the big key forwards are lacking but have proven capable in finals in 2018. Can ANB get his ball use and hardness over the pill to the level required to be the next Lambert he has the tank. Who else is forward is capable of some midfield rotations so that Petracca can roll forward.

Highly regarded in the industry but I'm a little doubtful on Freo really doing their due diligence if they've hired a former player and only interviewed 2 other candidates, both of whom had Freo connections and seemed long shots. We should probably look at Dean Solomon, sometimes the best coaches can get hidden away at bad locations and if he's been grinding away at the Suns for years and still got recognition then he might know a few things. A bit like Richmond wisely giving Leppa another go.

We've been awful quiet on getting shafted. Obvious answer is the AFL has our nuts in a vice with cash. Hopeful answer is part of the Suns rescue package was a quid pro quo with us. Could pick 3 for Ben King be the sweetener? (I doubt it but a man can dream).