DeeSpencer

So forget about the go home factor and just ask if this kid is the next Joel Selwood or the next Andrew Swallow. That's the likely range of his talents and if he's the next Selwood then sign him up, if he's the next Swallow then thanks but no thanks.

Certainly a decent chunk of WA's best players either play in the state or return home. From that team: Hamling, Jetta, Hill*, Kelly, Jamie Cripps, Josh Kennedy, Yeo have all gone home. The first 4 names there are Indigenous players who I think it's fair to say have stronger community/family links than most players. Cripps and Yeo were at very ordinary clubs when they went home. Kennedy didn't want to leave Carlton and was packed up for Judd. O'Meara moved to Victoria, Coniglio came close to doing the same, Buddy went to Sydney and Charlie Cameron went to one of his original homes. Deven Robertson looks tough, resilient and no fuss, the type of kid who will stay loyal if you give him a strong club. Shuey, Gaff, Hurn..plenty of non West Aussies stick it out in Perth. I wouldn't be too worried even with uncle Darren at the Eagles. In fact I reckon it would be hard if not impossible for Glass to excuse himself from list management decisions involved in trading for his nephew, in many ways it makes a trade less likely.

Sure would, but given he's probably only 50% chance of joining us, then has to get through preseason to get on the park he'd be about 1% chance of being out there in round 1. If we have 1 of 3 of Vanders, KK and Bennell out there and playing well it would be a good result.

Nic Nat 10 games in year 1, 22 in year 2. Grundy 7 games in year 1 including a final as the number 1 ruck. 15 games in year 2. With Burgess and a maturing midfield group including Tomlinson and Langdon on the wings the idea would be to play Jackson something like 65% game time, 35% forward, 30% ruck from very early in his career. That’s enough to ease the load over the next 2 years before really extending Max when he’s 30+

There's a lack of refinement to his skills but I don't think Jackson is as raw as people think, the stats and the way he plays looks like a footballer. Nic Nat, Stef Martin and Grundy are still unrefined at times, doesn't hurt their value. And it's hard to disagree about the ruck not being a need with Gawn right now but I'm looking at the current Melbourne side and I see a lot of needs and not a lot of strengths. Maybe we'd be well served to lean in to the ruck as a real strength and have 120 minutes of quality in there. We need to add more run and skill but we're unlikely to ever beat Richmond playing open fast footy. Stoppages, contested ball, own the aerial contests might be our best game plan. Gawn also works his backside off to break even at ground level against the more mobile rucks, I'm not sure how much longer he'll be able to do it at a high level for 100 minutes a game. He tore his hammy tendon chasing a midfielder a couple of years ago, as he gets towards 30 he's going to struggle in the centre square. Gawn with heavier slower inside mids isn't a great centre bounce combination. How often do you see Gawn chasing a mid from the centre or a handball go to him flat footed which forces him to lob an ineffective kick forward. Adding a mobile ruck to do a share of the centre bounce work would help Max do what he does best - control games as an around the ground force. Interstate players? We burnt a decade of young talent no matter where they came from, I don't think we can be concerned about that. Same with the go home factor.

Because if you had that draft again Grundy would go pick 1 or maybe pick 2 after Whitfield. He has: O'Rourke, Plowman, Toumpas, Mayes, Menzel, Jaksch, Corr, Garner, Thurlow, Simpson and everyone after pick 18 clearly covered. You can make an argument for Macrae, Wines, Stringer, Vlastuin I guess but it's Grundy right? If you think Jackson is even remotely similar to Grundy then he has to be in the conversation for at least pick 8.

Not drafting Jackson because we have Bradtke is about the equivalent of not drafting Hogan because we had Jack Fitzpatrick. Irrelevant. Plenty of valid reasons not to draft a ruck with a high pick and that they take time is one of the most valid ones but Jackson is one of the best performed players in this draft crop, he's not in the same postcode as Bradtke who by definition couldn't play footy for years to qualify as Cat B.

How many players turned up slightly underdone to their clubs last season? Off the top of my head: Wingard, W Rioli, Dusty Martin, Motlop, Stringer and I'm sure a stack more. How many players have done an ACL and taken time to get back to their best. How many players of lesser or equal talent as Harmes signed a 4 year contract in this recent trade period? Tomlinson is one. Cam Ellis-Yolmen (3 years, maybe 4)? Josh Bruce. Was Zak Jones 3 or 4 years? The reality is with anything like the last couple of seasons Harmes would play himself in to a juicy 4 year extension, we've gone early and likely got A) a discount and B) significant cap flexiblity for doing so.

https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=454539 from 6;31

I'll add to the chorus saying Josh Walker is the one mature tall who somewhat interests me. The reality is though I want to see Petty and Weideman given every chance at both ends of the ground, plus I'd like to recruit at least 1 young tall with our 5 remaining spots.

Casey has often had Gippsland players as the 23rd man right? I wouldn’t be surprised if JT wanted Serong and Flanders to play for Casey. Both strong bodies and good up forward, you’d like to see them win a few clearances and make an impact forward.

I assume Taylor usually watches a wide range of games looking at a bunch of players trying to cover the whole draft pool. With our season down the drain he knew he’d have a top pick and so had a deep dive on top prospects, watching multiple games and maybe isolating on a player and seeing their off ball work etc. A lot of these top guys play plenty of school footy. Ie. Kemp and Serong for Geelong Grammar. Taylor would go to some of those games regardless of focus. But I think he was saying the games he took a deep dive on were likely the carnival games, WAFL/sanfl or Nab league finals. The big games where big guns step up.

He was 1 vote off winning the Larke medal for best player in the national champs! More than just a bit of good form. And he’ll start as a forward was all Taylor said, no real difference to a young mid starting as a forward like Serong, Kemp and Flanders probably do. I think people need to get their heads around this being genuine. May not end up that way but there’s enough there for me. No 18 year old should be drafted for needs. Mids and smalls might do more earlier but even guys like Petracca and Cam Rayner were big projects in terms of fitness and went top 2.

Interesting reading between the lines. JT says 3 players are in the mix at pick 3. Twomey: Is Luke Jackson in that mix? JT: 'Yeah he'd be in that mix I'd say'. It could certainly be bluffing, but it sounded pretty honest to me. And if we wanted to take him at 8 then you'd downplay any interest. Bluffing only makes sense if you're keen to get a trade. Who is rating him nowhere near 3? The mock drafts that have him around 10-15 is where Oliver and Bont were rated at this time in their draft years. The media and greater public always go with the high possession mids and goal kickers early whilst the recruiters are looking at other players. We've seen reports GWS, Freo and possibly Carl are all keen on him, it's not like he's come from nowhere. Should a team not have drafted Dangerfield, Rioli, Cripps with pick 3 because they weren't rated as pick 3 by the consensus? Here's my interpretation: The pick swap with North doubles our chances of getting a ready made player. It's exactly the kind of move you'd make if you were considering a 199cm kid with one of your picks.

If we like 35 players in the draft then 1 or 2 of those might get all the way through to pick 75 if we are very lucky but it makes some sense to me that we'd be looking for a pick in the 40's or around 50 to grab a slider.

Interestingly Callum Mills was pick 3 after we bid on him and at the time was an out and out midfielder who the Swans started at half back to ease him in to AFL footy. A few years on and he's had a few cracks at the midfield but he just looks more comfortable with strong aerial and contested work down back rather than being a midfielder. Vlastuin was pick 9 after being a midfielder at TAC level but a half back and captain at Vic Metro, has been ok in a few stints in the midfield but is elite across half back. I'd argue Jake Lever is a flanker in many ways and I understand we went close to picking him with pick 3! Then there's Daniel Rich who might be the closest comparison to Young in that kicking is by a mile the strength of his game. Pick 7 but could've gone higher. The thing I like about Young is his elite skill - kicking - matches with his role. Like a gun forward who clunks marks or a gun mid who wins clearances for fun if you have the elite trait in one area and no clear deficiencies then you're going to be a really good player even if you aren't a superstar.

A fairly smart player with decent skills but his body is shot. There's no mobility and speed left there. Some guys are just done by 30. No thanks.

Pick 3: down to about 3 players Confirmed Luke Jackson is one of those, liked his improvement post national champs - has gone to see him play in person and play forward, and that he's always played in top junior games. Hayden Young in the mix, likes his improvement from last year to this year Wasn't asked much about Green but will bid on academy players as he sees fit Tim Lamb (list manager) in ongoing talks about pick swaps Will entertain swaps but aim is to be careful about trading down with the hope of player getting through, doesn't like the risk - if 0.5% risk you're not doing it (something along those lines) Dealing for pick 8 based around a group of players that might be available as well as 30% of the top 30 next year being academy based Hosts bring up Lachie Ash, Caleb Serong. JT doesn't really confirm too much about those 2, instead brings up Brodie Kemp and Deven Robertson Gets asked about Weightman and talks positively about small forwards in the pool Aims to take 3-4 draft picks, has a list down to about 75 Likes the top 35 of the draft and then the next group is more pros and cons Pro Bennell Still confident in the list, assessing it based on 2018 not just 2019 Talks up the resilience and work ethic of the 2018 draft class - Sparrow, Jordon, Nietschke, Bedford, Dunkley etc Keen for Spargo to bounce back and bought up Harry Petty - unsure in which role - as a talent for the future

An unusually bold strategy to publicly confirm so much interest. I like that it's as a train on player though, that's the wise move.

I'd still rather see him train with us and get picked up as a supplemental rookie after a period of training than race in with a list spot before we even know if he can run. If other clubs are willing to give him a list spot straight up then we have a more difficult decision to make.

A post earlier in the thread says he will stay on, he seems popular with the players and has far more experience now, so with the appropriate guidance should do a good job. Brukner is surely too busy to do the day to day stuff and every training session, if he can oversee the program, get involved with creating management plans for tricky injuries and possibly do some games that will be a good result.

My biggest concerns with drafting a ruck early are: 1. Injuries. I think Nic Nat and Kreuzer would've justified their draft position quite easily if they didn't miss so many games. Nic Nat has played 166 games, Rich 207. Kreuzer's played 188 to Cotchin's 234. Factor in the number of games where they aren't fully fit or go to the bench early and it might be closer to 30% less effective footy. 2. Replacement value. A 2nd or 3rd round pick can often find a competent ready made replacement, as can stashing development or state league options on the rookie list until required. Nankervis isn't fit to lace Nic Nat's boots but he can do the same job. That's not true of other positions.

Personal bug bear of mine but height is a bit of a useless stat because how long a guys neck and head is can make the difference between 198cm and 202cm. I'd like to know Jackson's height to the top of his shoulders plus his arm wingspan. And his vertical leap which I can't find in the top results from the combine but apparently is quite good all be it not freakish. At his height he might not be able to out jump the 204cm+ rucks but he might have the wingspan and leap to easily compete against the guys of similar stature.

They nailed 3 really good draft picks last year. The draft is often where analytics first comes in to sports, it's easier to quantify numbers on who is likely to be successful whilst it takes a while to change game plans - partly because coaches are often so restrictive to change. I'd also argue that after losing Wingard and Polec that Port started the season very well - as they often do - then lost their way down the stretch as Kenny started messing with the game plan and selection.

I like this appointment. Not that I know anything about Robert Younger particularly but I know we absolutely should be investing in analytics. We will never be the biggest club, we have to be smarter than everyone else to get success. Which means smart coaches, smart fitness staff, smart recruiters and giving all of those guys tools to get better at their job. That's what an analytics guy can do. So many trends come and go in footy and the teams that are at the leading edge of those trends win games and win premierships. - The importance of forward pressure and then full ground up and back presses - Left footers kicking from the backline - Intercept markers across half back retaining possession etc etc If I were a coach I'd love to know what skills/plans are actually vital to winning games. And if I were a recruiter I'd like to know what traits are actually the most valuable. Is it size/speed/kicking ability/winning one on ones/winning ground balls. Should we look to trade up the draft for elite talent or is the smarter move to trade back and bank more draft picks.