DeeSpencer

What do you see in Nash? He's big and athletic but 11 goals in 19 games, only ever kicked more than 1 goal once and rarely cracks double figures in disposals. I'm not sure he's going to be a successful project and if he is I'd imagine it might take another couple of years at least and be as a key defender.

That's true, for every better top pick there's a better player drafted at 7-10 like a Selwood or Danger but when it comes to draft night the team with pick 3 has the best shot and getting the Oliver, Bont, De Goey etc. The team with pick 3 has the chance to make the best pick, the team with pick 6 has to hope their guy gets through. St Kilda just moved from 6 to 12, and got pick 18 to do so. I would argue that moving from 3 to 6 is more valuable than moving from 6-12 given it all but guarantees the Giants of getting their man. It's at least worth a first rounder pick and I'd want it to be top 15.

23 and a future 5th : 27, 32 24 and a future 5th: 28, future 2nd Carlton = 2019 pick 23 (for now, likely more 25-27). Now there was talk of a draft drop off after those picks, and GWS probably are happy with 23, 28 for Bobby Hill, it's a lot but the kid can play. Gold Coast not so much for Jez Mclennan at this stage. But it shows what teams were willing to do when a player they wanted was right there in front of them and available.

My price to move from pick 3 to pick 6 would be a top 15, maybe even a top 12 pick or equivalent player. Think about the potential difference between Oliver and Parish - and I like Parish! Or Oliver and Weideman. The only way to accept anything even remotely less than top dollar would be to wait until the night of the draft and have nearly complete certainty that the player you are drafting at pick 3 will remain there at pick 6. The Giants are getting an extra top 3 pick by doing this deal, they have to pay up.

Clubs bring it up when trading for players with rough values or exchanging late picks in deals that favour academy/father son clubs, when it comes to top end picks getting swapped for lesser picks the system goes out the window. The Gold Coast paid 27 and 32 for picks 23 and a 5th rounder. The Giants paid 28 and a Carlton 2nd round pick for 24 and a 5th rounder. That was to draft Jez McLennan and Bobby Hill - teams gave up 2nd round picks to move up 4 spots! When it comes to offering up pick 3 we need to make a big surplus on the draft values.

I'd already like to drop all of the C players down a level and drop Hibberd from C+ to C. But I feel very confident about the B graders (maybe a little shaky on Melky who might be a B- if his defensive game doesn't lift next year). But there isn't a team in the comp who couldn't find room for Salem, Fritsch and Harmes. Langdon fits in on this level and Tomlinson is hopefully a B- not a C+. Getting up to 15/16 B- or above players supported by some handy C+ guys is how we made and won finals. Obviously we've had a few drop off but we should be able to replace them.

If we are to improve next year then I think Petty either plays as a serviceable tall either back or forward or Oscar or Weideman beat him out and show they are at least C+ types. Same thing goes for Jordon, Sparrow and I'd add Spargo - all 2nd rounders who have enough of something to get games as flankers if they aren't busts. Spargo's played in 2 winning finals after all. We are the masters of 2nd year blues so maybe we know how to fix it too! At least 1 of these guys can do something next year surely! Lockhart should already be included as a C/C- type, he's certainly no worse than the other half forwards. Unless he has no tank at all I'd never pick Corey Wagner over him. I still have some confidence in Oskar Baker. He hasn't done a proper preseason coming from the NEAFL and then missing all of last summer with hamstring rehab. He's very one dimensional but that one dimension - grab the ball, run, kick with penetration - can be enough if he can do it 10 times a game and not stuff up the rest of the time. I'd probably say he's 20-30% chance of making it but with development coaching and Burgess magic that could be higher. The way he moved (in attacking) from stoppages and hit some kicks was AFL standard. Some of our best footy in 2019 came when he was finding the ball. And I know you aren't a fan but I'm a believer in Kade Chandler as well. If we are to bounce back he's the exact type of unknown player that good teams find and develop quickly. Not a star but the tackling and quick on to the ball enough to do a job. It's hardly an inspiring group of players but our drafts in 15/16 were all top picks, mature agers or busts. I think we've forgot what it's like to develop players like Jayden Hunt or James Harmes who take a while but then come on quickly in years 3/4/5.

I think his opinion is fine but I also think you could've come to the same opinion by watching 10 minutes of most Melbourne games this season. I also think a list analysis before the trade period and without providing any opinion on the first and second year players is a waste of time. It annoys me that the Herald Sun have a huge footy budget and don't spend any of it or anyone who can provide something of quality.

A (elite): Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver B+ (nearly elite): Steven May, Christian Petracca, Tom McDonald B (solid): Christian Salem, Jack Viney, James Harmes, Bayley Fritsch, Jake Melksham B- (potentially solid, need to bounce back): Angus Brayshaw, Neville Jetta, Jake Lever C+ (role players with occasional quality): Sam Frost, Jayden Hunt, Marty Hore, Michael Hibberd C (role players) : Corey Wagner, Nathan Jones, Alex Neal-Bullen, Mitch Hannan C- (sub par role players): Jay Kennedy-Harris, Braydon Preuss, Josh Wagner, Billy Stretch, Oscar McDonald Injured* (quality unknown): Kade Kolodjashnij, Aaron Vandenberg, Joel Smith Developing*: Sam Weideman, Developing: Charlie Spargo, Oskar Baker, Harrison Petty, James Jordan, Tom Sparrow, Toby Bedford, Aaron Nietschke, Austin Bradtke, Kade Chandler

If I'm taking the time to go through a detailed analysis of a teams list there's no way I'm spelling a name like Neal-Bullen wrong. He's played 73 games, he's not an insignificant player. I actually agree our list is overrated, that's how you drop off and win 5 games in a season, but there's nothing insightful about how he came to that conclusion and spelling a name wrong is an obvious reflection of that.

Did he really spell Neal-Bullen wrong? That’s the level of intellect we are dealing with here. Move on

But imagine the goals he'd kick on Oscar at training. Wouldn't matter that he'd kick 20 goals a season if he's kicking 10 every match sim!

Certainly has been underwhelming but he did miss 2 years of footy before the draft, showed a bit last year and then this year might've been second year blues. Sometimes you have to take a chance on upside. What would I pay for that chance? No more than a 3rd rounder, that's for sure, but by pick 40+ what are you getting? He has size, a burst of speed around the contest and good tackling. I wouldn't be too upset if we got him for a cheap price and treated him like a 3rd year developing player rather than a pick 11 meant to improve the best 22. Would it help the list balance - no. But could it be a very smart pick up - maybe.

Old news but this is the first time without Todd and this clip from Graham Wright caught my ears when he said 'as has Tim Lamb at Melbourne'. https://mde.whooshkaa.com/show/9121/episode/442864.mp3 Have we signed him up to Harvard Business School. Is he reading 'the Art of the Deal'. At a minimum I hope we've got him a copy of Footballistics and an AFL Prospectus. I'd also buy him a ticket to the Sloan Sports Conference and make sure he comes back with a couple of nerds to work with.

Brad Hill - cash (and the draft picks to make the trade work) Paddy Ryder - came down to them on Essendon, better path to playing regular games at St Kilda, not a big pick up Zak Jones - interesting one, not sure too many clubs were keen, I'd imagine it's midfield playing time that's the drawcard Howard - probably their biggest get in terms of beating away competition, imagine they'll have to trade a player as well as Bruce (Acres?) to get him. I think he's a really smart pick up. They've got Gubby Allen for the old school know how plus hired James Gallagher who sounds like a very smart pick up. Add in a good coach keen to get experienced talent in and you'll land some names.

So from reports this is our new List Manager following Todd Viney moving in to other roles then vacating. We know about his police background as a detective as well as his footy background, having joined as a recruiter in 2012. Have we skilled him in useful tools for the position: 1. Contracts 2. Negotiation 3. Analytics Clubs are hiring former player managers (see Collingwood with Ned Guy) as they understand the contract and negotiation. St Kilda hired a former Investment banker because he knows contracts, knows how to negotiate outcomes and knows how to interpret data. https://www.saints.com.au/news/2018-08-02/saints-appoint-list-manager Josh Mahoney gets a lot of credit/blame at this time of the year because he's the public face of the club during the trade period but he's not necessarily the main decision maker. Anyone else got any information or opinions?

It's what I was told but if you want to read my original post as groin overload injury then that's fine too and probably more accurate these days. Same for Joel Smith. Or Joey Daniher.

10 weeks requiring a significant deloading and reloading period is. Doesn't really matter what the terminology or pathology was but it was an overload injury not just a one off strain. Hence in the article above May is talking about strengthening his core.

Turned up a little fat, ran his backside off - was easily beating Frost and others in the repeat 200’s - in a desire to get him to play as a CHB and ran himself in to OP. Hoping both May and the club are smarter this year. We need him as a 2 way player covering ground but we shouldn’t try to make him in to something he isn’t.

I'm more of an NFL man and I think the NFL maintains good parity by (so far) discouraging tanking. The top teams mostly retain their own players and tinker around the edges, the middle of the road teams often spend up and either improve or don't and the bottom teams can rebuild relatively quickly with a short period of stacking draft picks if need be. Greater free agency will help the wealthy clubs but if they spend recklessly there will be bargains to be had. And there's plenty of ways to protect star players so if they leave it still requires a trade. Really all we want is a system where the draft and salary cap keeps the league tight whilst also stopping gun kids or top line players walking out for nothing. Players 15-45 on a list could be open to a completely free market and no one would get too upset.

The trade period needs to go from mid October until March, maybe even until later in the season. It's ridiculous to restrict the ability to trade players down to a period of 2 weeks yet alone 1 week. That said, an expanded free agency should start at this time - ideally mid October rather than just after the Grand Final - and the vast majority of off season moves should be with free agents. Kick off the exchange period with a big free agency bonanza then let teams work on actual trades at whatever pace they want.

Worse kicks out of the backline than Murray: - Frost - ANB - Jake Spencer - Tom McDonald - Helen Keller He can run and win the ball and is a nice size for a flanker but there's nothing appealing about his kicking.

More importantly? Leadership and some experience is nice, if he can deliver it and others can follow. But winning the press conferences don't matter if you can't deliver on field.

Would I include pick 3 as part of a deal for Papley - sure. Would I pay Papley some crazy amount like 900k and therefore limit any future salary cap flexibility we have left with this core of players - nope.

I think what would've happened is we waited to do the Tomlinson signing before we knew we were out on Elliott so we could front load Tomlinson. Probably front load Langdon as well. That way we end up not only saving what we would've paid Elliott but having more flexibility to make a move on bigger names as well as signing all our out of contract guys like Fritsch and Petracca up. Somewhat disappointed to lose him but if we were going to bounce back to a good side next year we were going to do it with or without Elliott. Long term we need goal kicking options but I'd still be looking for forwards who provide more up the ground and midfield threats and great defensive pressure. Elliott would've been nice, but De Goey and Stephenson are far better players and we need a guy like that and/or a guy like Will Hoskin-Elliott who can get up the ground too.