Fat Tony

We need to replace Lever with a tall so that we have the right balance for all forward lines. (Ideally, I don't think we should be changing the backline from week to week.) Personally, I think Frost is best placed to fill the void but I also think he may need to be given a block of games to find form and gel with the rest of the backline. Frost is a very good player at his best but is inconsistent. Most of time he has had major skill errors in the past have been in the wet/greasy conditions and he is also prone to mistiming pushing up off his man. Our defence has improved significantly since we have maintained a goalkeeper at full back, covering up the mistakes of defenders in terms of pushing up the ground to help and stifling the opposition's fast breaks. As good as Lever's form has been in the last six weeks, I feel he has also benefited greatly due to us maintaining the goalkeeper. I also think this new structure will also help Frost, in particular, as the consequences of mistiming pushing up off his man are reduced.

Austin Bradtke said on the video on the MFC website that he will be focusing on weights and running laps because his skills are "pretty good".

Are the five teams Richmond, West Coast, Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide? I wouldn't rule out Port, Geelong, Hawthorn or even GWS completely. It is only May.

There is a lot to like about Spargo and he looks a good pick up so far. However, he is only 18, and I think Garlett at his best offers more at this stage. I know Garlett was out of form earlier this year but I think it was partly due to our lack of talls in the forward line and the way we were kicking inside 50. I would make the change this week. The other possible change would be Smith out for Hunt or Bugg. This would be only due to the bigger size of the Alice Springs ground and the high forecast temperature rather than Smith's form, as he was pretty good against Carlton.

ANB led our pressure acts yesterday for what it’s worth.

I loved the game of TMac on the weekend. He played well in every role. In saying this, I don't know how the statisticians calculate the time in each part of the position given the congestion.

Brainstorm: what about trialling Mitch Hannan in defence?

I am not sure about going full man on man, but I agree we should look to hold our defence deeper. I think defending a bit deeper would help open up our forward line as well. Having multiple players flying for the ball is an issue but partly reflects the selection of OMac, Frost, Lever, Wagner and Hibberd in the same side. I think a lot of our problems defending would disappear if we could be a bit more precise with our kicks inside 50. We are leaking a lot of goals from chains starting in our 50 and then the opposition getting over the back.

My notes: Petracca can be played in the centre bounces at times, but he should be predominately played as a forward. Jones tagging Mitchell was a very good decision IMO and he did a great job. I would probably play him on Martin next week. Pedersen needs to come back into the side for balance until TMac is fit. Particularly given how far up the field Hogan is playing. I like Frost, but he is poor in the wet. Lever lacks confidence at the moment and is a liability. I thought Goodwin should have tried him up forward yesterday once it was clear our structure wasn’t working. Lewis is finished. As good a kick as he is, we would be much better with a player who can keep his feet in the contest. Vince had a dirty day but has been very good this year otherwise. I wanted Bugg dropped last week and you cannot trust him to kick goals. Hunt must come back in. Our defence needs to trust OMac not to be out marked because we are getting beaten on the crumb. This will be a big issue this week given how Richmond play. Overall, I think Goodwin needs to go back to making sure we have balance in our selection. Hogan, Pedersen/Weideman and Petracca as our key forwards and OMac and two of Frost, Lever and Wagner in defence. The rest of our side needs to be selected with an emphasis on pace.

We will need to play four quarters to win today.

Pedersen polled 3 votes against St Kilda in round 21 and 1 vote vs Brisbane in round 22 last year. Both these games were with Gawn in the side and Hogan played against Brisbane. He hasn't set the world on fire this year in the AFL, but there is no doubt he was unlucky to be dropped IMO. (Especially given the wet conditions in round 2.) I am not advocating to bring him back this week, but I wouldn't see it as a bad move either given Hogan is our only key forward and he is pushing very high up the ground.

Melksham has gained enough credits from last year and his preseason IMO. This year has been a bit of a slow start and he has (just) missed a few goals but he hasn't been terrible. I would stick with him as he clearly looks an AFL class player to me. ANB has been ordinary as well this year and missed several marks going back with the flight of the ball on Saturday. Still, I think the best omission to maximise our chance of winning against Hawthorn is Bugg, with Hunt coming in. The only other change I would consider would be Brayshaw for ANB, but I can't read much into the VFL form against Coburg given the strength of the opposition.

I would bring back Hunt this week. I know he hasn't been great so far this year, but I feel we need his speed to combat the likes of Smith, Rioli, Breust and Puopolo. Finding an omission is difficult because our lesser players had good games i.e. Kent, Bugg, Tyson, Salem. My only change would be In: Hunt, Out: Bugg. (Yes I watched the game, but I think we need to be forward looking.)

One change. Frost in for Bugg. Frost to play on Waite and OMac on Brown. Petracca to spend more time forward. Lewis to play midfield/wing not loose man. Lever to play as a third defender or loose if we play a seven man defence. Even play him on the wing if they drag him to full back.

I am happy to experiment, but Hogan's best position to me seems to be CHF/FF.

If he gets delisted, he can walk into the club of his choice.

Based on the points system, I have Lever valued at around Pick 5. This depends on a range of variables, including the discount rate on future picks, the quality of each draft, next year’s finishing position and compensation picks. The key variable is really where Melbourne finish in 2018. Pick 10 (1,395) + MEL R1 2018 (1,395) + MEL R4 2018 (100) - Pick 35 (460) - ADEL R2 2018 (550) = 1,880 = Lever So I see this as being still a decent trade for Melbourne and probably around fair market value. For example, I would rather the proven Lever over Noah Balta, who is 5th on Knightmare’s Power Rankings. (Not that I have seen Balta play.) It is a bad trade if we finish in the bottom 4.

It sounds like he will leave for money not because he doesn't like living in Adelaide or has an issue with the Crows

Why would Adelaide let Lever go if salary didn't matter? Managing the cap well is one of the biggest keys to success in the AFL. That's also why Hawthorn let Lewis and Mitchell go. I'll be happy if we get him, but it is sensible enough to worry that we are overpaying a player based on potential and we then might lose other talent down the track.

Pretty fair assessment IMO. Although I thought his game against the Dogs was excellent and better than a 7. He was much better after the bye and should improve again with another preseason in the gym. Also, I think his kicking is much better than he gets credit for, probably due to his brother being an ordinary kick.

Good analysis, but it's too early to grade the last three. 4/13 still isn't a great strike rate.

It might be enough (although I doubt it) and, I agree, we should negotiate fairly hard. But I would still trade Tyson regardless, even for a pick. We have enough ball winners in Oliver, Jones, Viney, Brayshaw and Petracca and we need some class on the outside. As I said, I would like I. Smith, Higgins or Sidebottom, but their clubs won't be willing to trade cheaply and those players all seem fairly settled. I see Seedsman as a similar type of player, albeit much cheaper and having done less at AFL level.

I see the trades being firstly #10 and Tyson for Lever and secondly #46 for Seedsman. The way I see it is our midfield is too slow and lacks kicking skills and Tyson is the major cause of the problem. Ideally I would love to add in a player like Issac Smith, Higgins or Sidebottom, but I can't see any of them being on the table.

Trade In: Lever, Seedsman Trade Out: Pick #10, Tyson (possibly to Carlton as part of a Gibbs trade), #46 Delist: Trengove, Hulett, Lumumba, McKenna, Spencer (FA), White (R) Upgrade: J. Smith Live picks: #28, #64 I would retain Frost and plan to play TMac forward. I like Seedsman as a player and while he hasn’t been able to cement a spot at Adelaide, he has been emergency most weeks, which indicates he has played well at the lower level. He would potentially give us some outside run and skill. We don’t want too many draft picks in a shallow draft. I would look at picking up another veteran or delisted free agent, because it allows us to only offer a one year contract, whereas a new draftee gets two years. I would look at Scott Thompson (NM) if we don’t get Lever. I would let Spencer go and prepare to ruck with Pedersen, TMac, Watts etc or King if he develops if Gawn gets injured again. Garland is contracted and I am not sure it makes much sense to break the contract from a cap perspective. Best 22 Lever OMac Jetta Hibberd Frost Hunt Watts Jones Lewis ANB Hogan Harmes Petracca TMac Garlett Gawn Oliver Viney Int from: Salem Melksham Hannan Vince Brayshaw Pedersen Seedsman

I agree with the view that our midfield lacks balance and we need to inject some class. But I don't agree with your views on Brayshaw and ANB. ANB has improved significantly this year and his running ability helps enable our outnumbering game plan. And why can't Brayshaw play a high half back role? It is the easiest position in football. I see similarities with the moves of Toby Green forward and Corey Enright back.