On 12/11/2025 at 10:46, The Jackson FIX said:

Why would his view on their abilities change between October and November?? Surely there is an overlay of where he thinks they will land

The same reason why actual club recruiters change their order of players over the past months and coming week

For anyone getting worked up about "over reaching" for Nairn.

The last few players we "over reached" for were

Windsor, Pickett, Jackson.

And the one I remember my bombers mate laughing at us for picking over Parish in 2014

Pick 4 Clayton Oliver 😍

4 hours ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

Is he up with the others hovering around the 6-15 range, or would he be rated a little behind them? He seems more like a second round pick that a lot of clubs are hoping drops to them. What is his point of difference over the guys likely to still be available at our picks?

He is rated in the mid 20’s. Not one phantom draft has him in the top 10

14 minutes ago, Benny Dee said:

For anyone getting worked up about "over reaching" for Nairn.

The last few players we "over reached" for were

Windsor, Pickett, Jackson.

And the one I remember my bombers mate laughing at us for picking over Parish in 2014

Pick 4 Clayton Oliver 😍

Pickett, Windsor and Jackson were all ragged top 20 in every draft. Stop rewriting history

17 minutes ago, Benny Dee said:

For anyone getting worked up about "over reaching" for Nairn.

The last few players we "over reached" for were

Windsor, Pickett, Jackson.

And the one I remember my bombers mate laughing at us for picking over Parish in 2014

Pick 4 Clayton Oliver 😍

There’s also Weideman, Tholstrup and Jefferson. JT is good, but he isn’t perfect.

Has there ever been an instance where a potential top 10 draftee was invited to night one but passed on because plans changed on the night?

6 minutes ago, Oxdee said:

Pickett, Windsor and Jackson were all ragged top 20 in every draft. Stop rewriting history

In case your not just trolling, feel free to look at cals form guide that had Kozzie at pick 30.

Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: November update - https://www.afl.com.au/news/149391

5 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

There’s also Weideman, Tholstrup and Jefferson. JT is good, but he isn’t perfect.

Weideman and Jefferson weren't a reach.

They pretty much went where they had been projected to go by all the draft experts.

1 minute ago, Mouseymoo said:

Has there ever been an instance where a potential top 10 draftee was invited to night one but passed on because plans changed on the night?

Yes.

One of the Whitlock boys last year.

Deven Robertson another year.

Edited Thursday at 10:572 days by dazzledavey36

Did he do the combine? I'd love to know what his pace is like, because his highlights aren't that flattering from a speed perspective, despite being able to find space. The kick is off somehow as well, but it's working. Will that translate to AFL pressure though?

I think the highlights are deceptive. Happy to go on record as not being a fan.

5 minutes ago, Random Task said:

In case your not just trolling, feel free to look at cals form guide that had Kozzie at pick 30.

Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: November update - https://www.afl.com.au/news/149391

In case you didn’t understand what I was saying, nairn isn’t in anyone’s top 20 phantom draft.

Pickett was 13th in espn

ESPN.com

Every club, every pick: ESPN's full AFL phantom draft

The 2019 draft is on our doorstep, and ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft from the first pick to the very last.

12 minutes ago, BigBadBustling said:

Did he do the combine? I'd love to know what his pace is like, because his highlights aren't that flattering

I think the highlights are deceptive. Happy to go on record as not being a fan.

Yeah neither. I think JT must see some similarities to Fritsch who he would have tracked for a long time which is too good to pass up on.

20 minutes ago, Oxdee said:

In case you didn’t understand what I was saying, nairn isn’t in anyone’s top 20 phantom draft.

Pickett was 13th in espn

ESPN.com

Every club, every pick: ESPN's full AFL phantom draft

The 2019 draft is on our doorstep, and ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft from the first pick to the very last.

That was a phantom done literally on the day of the draft. His rankings one week earlier had Kozzie at pick 19 if that does anything for you, though I'd hardly put any stock into Knightmares opinions.

ESPN.com

Updated phantom draft: The first three rounds

With less than two weeks until the 2019 AFL Draft, ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft into the first three rounds.

Let's just see where Nairn is placed when all the various reporters release their final phantoms between Monday and Wednesday next week.

Edit: and to reinforce a point that you either refuse to acknowledge or comprehend. Cal Twomey, widely known as the most providing the most accurate predictions of how the first round will play out, has NOT done his phantom draft yet.

He has also spoken on his show that various clubs, including us, hawthorn and Giants, are eyeing him off in that 10-15 draft range. Feel free to disagree with him.

Edited Thursday at 11:412 days by Random Task

42 minutes ago, Oxdee said:

In case you didn’t understand what I was saying, nairn isn’t in anyone’s top 20 phantom draft.

Pickett was 13th in espn

ESPN.com

Every club, every pick: ESPN's full AFL phantom draft

The 2019 draft is on our doorstep, and ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft from the first pick to the very last.

Oxy, he may not be in draft experts top 10s, but at this point it's becoming clear that a number of clubs rank him in the 10-15 range. By the time we pick it'll be around pick 10 after bids are in for Academy & F/S.

It's long been a draft crop where little separates pick 11 & pick 35. Under a week to go, sit back, enjoy the ride.

Edited Thursday at 11:502 days by ChaserJ

1 hour ago, Oxdee said:

Pickett, Windsor and Jackson were all ragged top 20 in every draft. Stop rewriting history

Top 20 for sure but I still recall the general vibe at the time was those 3 going later than we went for them and it turned out well.

The Oliver one definitely raised eyebrows at the time.

You think a recruiter - who has watched these players play footy over the course of two seasons (some more) - changes their mind on the football ability and potential of a player between October & November?

I don’t. I think orders might change based on what other clubs do.

Which was my point.

I think they call them Rankings now and Phantom drafts just before the actual draft when all the 'intel' is in so they dont look like they completely knackered it up.

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I wonder if clubs leak info, to induce other clubs to perhaps change direction slightly and therefore have another option available at their pick.

Then again, maybe recruiting has become too sophisticated for that.

Would a club take a player just because another club wanted to, probably not.

Asked and answered.

16 hours ago, Oxdee said:

In case you didn’t understand what I was saying, nairn isn’t in anyone’s top 20 phantom draft.

Pickett was 13th in espn

ESPN.com

Every club, every pick: ESPN's full AFL phantom draft

The 2019 draft is on our doorstep, and ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft from the first pick to the very last.

I get it, if you were running the show you'd trade into a pick in the 20s because that's where the phantoms say Nairn should go and then watch GWS take him at 17.

That could be a strategy that's hard to justify in hindsight.

8 hours ago, The Jackson FIX said:

You think a recruiter - who has watched these players play footy over the course of two seasons (some more) - changes their mind on the football ability and potential of a player between October & November?

I don’t. I think orders might change based on what other clubs do.

Which was my point.

Order definitely changes as recruiters go to work on background and off field stuff between the end of season and the draft.

3 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I wonder if clubs leak info, to induce other clubs to perhaps change direction slightly and therefore have another option available at their pick.

Then again, maybe recruiting has become too sophisticated for that.

Would a club take a player just because another club wanted to, probably not.

I find this so interesting. Particularly that a bloke can do a mock draft every year and get somewhere between 12 and 15 of the top 20 spot on.

I don't get why clubs wouldn't keep their hands very close to their chests. Yes, as you say, maybe some bluffing or misdirection, but not "We love Player X and will take him at Pick Y". Is it simply that you can't keep those things quiet anymore. Will people always leak?

In a league where teams have literally injected weird substances into the body of an entire list, where teams have blatantly tanked, where teams have done brown paper bag deals, where a coach like Simon Goodwin never EVER gave anything away, gameplan wise, during press conferences, why is such an important element of the game so open and collegiate?

On 13/11/2025 at 12:26, Young Blood said:

This is definitely the sort of player you would usually draft late first round but obviously JT rates him highly and believes he won't be there at pick 37.

Will trigger some here but he really reminds me of Jack Watts in the way he moves/kicks. He's got potentially elite disposal and running capacity, a far better mark and pressure looks good already as well.

Every club needs this sort of player that can lead into space, set up goals with good kicking/decision making, decent mark and can certainly get out the back like Fritta does.... I just don't know if this sort of player is worth a top 15 pick.

In JT we trust I guess...

Cue incorrect use and debating the use of the word "laconic"

2 minutes ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

I find this so interesting.

What I find interesting is that (for a few days now) we have a thread about Nairn on both the main board and the trade & draft board. If that's not a sign ...

@Demonland merge threads?

I don't see a high level AFL athlete in the highlights.