16 hours ago, Red and Blue Flame said:

These (^^ above post) are different to AFL Ratings, which considers a player's history and their position.

This show you how far off the cliff we've fallen. 5 players inside the top 100 in the comp.

Based on this, you'd think that anyone from Rivers down is trade worthy (outside of young players like Bowey, Windsor, Langford and Lindsay).

Not sure this is as damning as it seems. There are 18 teams in the comp, so on average each team will have 5-6 players in the top 100. We have 14 inside the top 228 which is above average.

Perhaps someone who has more understanding of how the AFL rating is measured can chime in, but I’d suggest that this points to what we’re doing without the ball being the biggest drop off (aside from the former luxury of consistently having 3 top 10 rated players multiple years in a row). My guess is that ratings measure primarily what you do with the ball but struggle to consider team defence. I’d guess a high scoring team which leaks goals would have a higher average than a low scoring team with frugal defence.

We’ve had a seriously weird statistical year including more than a few unlikely losses, but I’d suggest our problems are much more easily correctable than say a Carlton, Essendon or St Kilda. We’re knocking on the top 8 on the expected ladder which is typically the best predictor of future performance, and the area in which we are currently worst at was previously a strength, so there’s hope. I just hope we don’t panic and throw out everything and start fresh based on game to game results this year. I’d argue that’s exactly what we’ve done to a successful game plan post the Carlton semi loss in 2023. Despite their significant drop off, I’d say the rating above show we’re much better off investing in getting Petracca and Oliver back to near their best rather than trading out in a compromise year when their contracts will greatly limit value. Who replaces them if they go and how do we win clearances?

Just now, Red and Blue Flame said:

We are ranked #11 for Points From turnover

2 minutes ago, 0livers Army said:

Not sure this is as damning as it seems. There are 18 teams in the comp, so on average each team will have 5-6 players in the top 100. We have 14 inside the top 228 which is above average.

Perhaps someone who has more understanding of how the AFL rating is measured can chime in, but I’d suggest that this points to what we’re doing without the ball being the biggest drop off (aside from the former luxury of consistently having 3 top 10 rated players multiple years in a row). My guess is that ratings measure primarily what you do with the ball but struggle to consider team defence. I’d guess a high scoring team which leaks goals would have a higher average than a low scoring team with frugal defence.

We’ve had a seriously weird statistical year including more than a few unlikely losses, but I’d suggest our problems are much more easily correctable than say a Carlton, Essendon or St Kilda. We’re knocking on the top 8 on the expected ladder which is typically the best predictor of future performance, and the area in which we are currently worst at was previously a strength, so there’s hope. I just hope we don’t panic and throw out everything and start fresh based on game to game results this year. I’d argue that’s exactly what we’ve done to a successful game plan post the Carlton semi loss in 2023. Despite their significant drop off, I’d say the rating above show we’re much better off investing in getting Petracca and Oliver back to near their best rather than trading out in a compromise year when their contracts will greatly limit value. Who replaces them if they go and how do we win clearances?

Appreciate that - ratings do take into consideration all metrics including with and without the footy, but it's based on similar players and positions as well as the player's historical form and ratings.

I don't disagree with who replaces them and we are likely 'stuck' for want of a better word given contract size and length. However, I want to see Windsor, Langford, Lindsay all go through with Pickett and play Trac more fwd/maybe even rotate Oliver through the fwd line more to give exposure to these players.

General list demographic as has been stated is quite alarming given no real swathe of talent between 23-28 yo. Some tough decisions ala Hawthorn 2016 need to be made.

8 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD some very interesting stats coming out of this game such a shame that we blew it in the last, good to see that Riv and Max were at the elite level and that our top 6 players performed so well. I noticed on Wheelo’s player rating that only Rivers and Salem went against the trend Scoring highly in that miserable last quarter. Pressure ratings for 1st and 3rd were quite noticeable but 2nd and last pretty average. The last in particular but that may have been because of the Saints ball movement we couldn’t get our hands on it for that last 20 minutes.

Thanks DZ

There are often exceptions to generally very poor quarters / matches and appreciate hearing about Riv & Salo's efforts.

Some playing with pride and able to finish off four quarters then. While too many are often dropping right off?

Surely the fitness / HP side has to come under severe scrutiny at season's end? (among plenty of other aspects of the club & FD!)

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 20, 2025 vs H&A Season 2024

* Played less than two full matches

< Subbed out at least once or more

> Subbed in at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

2 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 20, 2025 vs H&A Season 2024

* Played less than two full matches

< Subbed out at least once or more

> Subbed in at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

The thing that stands out for me DD is that our older brigade have all stood up apart from an injured Rick, Claz and Tracc still 2nd and 3rd, whilst Bowie and Kozzie the big improvers and Langford is already ranked 13th, he is going to be something special.

10 hours ago, DeeZone said:

The thing that stands out for me DD is that our older brigade have all stood up apart from an injured Rick, Claz and Tracc still 2nd and 3rd, whilst Bowie and Kozzie the big improvers and Langford is already ranked 13th, he is going to be something special.

There's some great individual efforts no doubt DZ. What the stats don't show unfortunately is the other defensive running / work rate side, selflessness, footy smarts, conversion of entries inside 50 in terms of how we bring it in, general abilities of some in terms of forward craft particularly the two talls that appear to be in Simon's favourites list in JVR & Petty who have both been mostly woeful options.

Yet Simon keeps going back to them.

Turner, while playing most of the season down back and showing he is well versed and accomplished here (albeit still learning) and can be switched back there to play whenever required. Should have been given a serious trial as a forward, at least once any chance of finals was gone which is now weeks ago. Would Turner make it as a dynamic mobile marking tall forward that converts pretty accurately? Something severely lacking for us over many years now. Under Simon we will never know the answer to that. He is unable to throw caution to the wind and trial these things (seriously) for more than a half of footy or so before reverting back to his old standard of preference for as many 'dour' defensive types we can put on the park.

Unfortunately the mids aren't what they once were. They can't cover two way defending often enough or long enough. They aren't as commited / desperate over the ball as they once were bar Viney.

We are slow as a wet week in general through ths middle other than Kozzy.

Can't hit targets often enough coming inside.

Constantly turn the ball over and cant get slick chains of footy going in transition often enough.

Terrible style to watch even whem losing which happens as we know.

No grit to find a way to win.

The list goes on DZ

We are bottom four for a reason. We are a woeful team.

P.S. DZ

We also can't handle much pressure once the oppo turns things up a notch

And we seemingly are unable to sustain in for long enough periods either.

That was something you could pretty much take as a given in most matches from 2021 - 2023

Now mostly vanished into a very brittle group. With some sustained individual efforts from a few on the day, the exception.

Same can be said in the upstairs dept.

As soon as we are looking like a fairly strong favorite to win, we appear to mostly turn our tails up and lose too many of those very gettable 'going in as favourites' matches, with some exceptions of course.

Having said all that, maybe i am totally wrong on the reading of all this and we are about to miraculously turn things around from here and launch into next year storming our way up the ladder and into a serious finals stint.

Simon might be correct. Mine is just one view / opinion and an amature keyboard one at that.

Stranger things have happened but i won't be placing my hard earned on it. Love to see it though. Seen too many years / decades of MFC crappola in my lifetime.

Edited yesterday at 02:211 day by Demon Dynasty

Melbourne v West Coast (Round 21, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20252104

Key Team Stats

Stats in bold were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff	AFL
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Efficiency	75.1	74.7	+0.5	72.4
Kicking Efficiency	68.5	69.5	-1.0	65.9
Territory/Attack
Time In Forward Half	58.1	41.9	+16.2
Inside 50s	58	45	+13
Shots At Goal	36	15	+21
Scores Per Inside 50	58.6	35.6	+23.1	44.5
Goals Per Inside 50	36.2	17.8	+18.4	23.6
Marks Inside 50	17	13	+4
Transition
Chain To Score %	30.6	16.7	+14.0	20.7
Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %	29.0	25.5	+3.5	22.8
Defensive 50 To Score %	19.4	10.9	+8.5	9.5
Defensive Half To Forward 50 %	36.2	36.4	-0.2	31.1
Defensive Half To Score %	19.0	13.8	+5.1	12.8
Contest
Contested Possessions	145	103	+42
Ground Ball Gets	98	73	+25
Post Clearance Contested Poss	88	61	+27
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	60	44	+16
Contested Marks	14	6	+8
Clearance
Total Clearances	40	30	+10
Centre Clearances	17	11	+6
Stoppage Clearances	23	19	+4
First Possessions	47	31	+16
First Possession To Clearance %	72.3	74.2	-1.9	74.8
Defense
Intercepts	65	55	+10
Intercept Marks	25	10	+15
Tackles	57	48	+9
Tackles Inside 50	22	2	+20
Def One On One Loss %	14.3	66.7	-52.4	27.0
Ruck
Hitouts	36	37	-1
Hitouts To Advantage	9	7	+2

Transition stats measure how often chains result in a score or an inside 50. Chains include all kick-in chains, all clearances, and intercepts with at least one disposal in the chain.

• Chain To Score %: proportion of all chains that resulted in a score.

• Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive 50 To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in a score.

• Defensive Half To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive Half To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in a score.

Player Ratings

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	TOG
Bayley Fritsch	2.8	2.9	8.5	7.7	21.9	82%
Max Gawn	6.9	8.0	4.9	1.2	21.0	85%
Jack Viney	4.7	2.9	7.4	2.9	17.9	76%
Caleb Windsor	4.4	3.1	1.9	6.6	16.0	77%
Christian Petracca	2.8	3.3	4.0	5.2	15.2	82%
Jai Culley	0.3	2.9	7.9	4.1	15.1	76%
Jake Melksham	5.1	3.1	6.5	0.0	14.7	64%
Kade Chandler	4.6	1.0	4.2	4.7	14.6	86%
Harvey Langford	5.0	2.1	4.8	2.4	14.3	86%
Trent Rivers	2.8	4.0	4.5	0.9	12.2	81%
Clayton Oliver	1.4	6.1	5.4	−0.7	12.2	76%
Kysaiah Pickett	3.7	0.6	5.9	1.4	11.5	85%
Jake Bowey	1.0	2.9	4.9	1.9	10.7	85%
Harrison Petty	−0.4	5.3	6.7	−1.4	10.2	76%
Daniel Turner	1.9	1.7	1.5	5.0	10.1	94%
Jacob van Rooyen	−0.5	0.1	4.2	3.4	7.2	77%
Christian Salem	4.0	2.2	1.0	−0.4	6.9	82%
Judd McVee	1.5	0.7	0.3	4.1	6.6	84%
Blake Howes	0.9	2.2	0.9	2.5	6.4	77%
Tom McDonald	1.4	1.9	−0.7	3.3	5.9	97%
Ed Langdon	0.3	0.8	0.7	4.1	5.9	76%
Tom Sparrow	2.8	0.3	0.4	−0.3	3.2	79%
Harry Sharp	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	0.8	18%

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	4	1	+3
Loose Ball Get	11	5	+6
Contested Mark	4	3	+1
Free For	2	0	+2
Total	21	9	+12
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	5	9	-4
Loose Ball Get	16	18	-2
Contested Mark	4	0	+4
Ruck Hard Ball Get	2	0	+2
Gather From Hitout	1	2	-1
Free For	7	4	+3
Total	35	33	+2
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	15	11	+4
Loose Ball Get	45	33	+12
Contested Mark	14	6	+8
Contested Knock On	2	2	0
Free For	12	9	+3
Total	88	61	+27
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	13	5	+8
Loose Ball Get	25	24	+1
Ruck Hard Ball Get	6	0	+6
Gather From Hitout	8	7	+1
Contested Knock On	3	2	+1
Free For	2	4	-2
Total	57	42	+15

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.

• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.

• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	131.3	139	100%	+71.7	+83	+11.3
West Coast	59.6	56	0%

	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	36	21.9 135	58.3%	128.3	+6.7	3.56	+0.19
West Coast	15	8.6 54	53.3%	58.6	−4.6	3.91	−0.31
General Play
Melbourne	15	7.6 48	46.7%	49.8	−1.8	3.32	−0.12
West Coast	2	0.2 2	0.0%	9.8	−7.8	4.88	−3.88
Set Position
Melbourne	21	14.3 87	66.7%	78.5	+8.5	3.74	+0.40
West Coast	13	8.4 52	61.5%	48.9	+3.1	3.76	+0.24

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.

• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.

• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.

• +/-: total score above or below expected score.

• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.

• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Territory (time in zones)

Region	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	Season
Half
Forward	61%	57%	61%	52%	58%	52%
Defensive	39%	43%	39%	48%	42%	48%
Region
Forward 50	36%	23%	39%	29%	31%	26%
Attacking Midfield	25%	35%	23%	24%	27%	27%
Defensive Midfield	21%	26%	18%	24%	22%	25%
Defensive 50	18%	16%	21%	23%	19%	23%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	3.1 19	1.1 7	+12
Centre Bounce	3.2 20	0.1 1	+19
Stoppage (Other)	4.5 29	3.2 20	+9
Turnover	11.5 71	4.4 28	+43

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	19	4.3	7	5.0
Centre Bounce	20	12.7	1	14.2
Stoppage (Other)	29	20.8	20	21.1
Turnover	71	45.8	28	47.5

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	31	12.6	20	17.4
Defensive midfield	20	15.8	9	20.1
Centre bounce	20	12.7	1	14.2
Attacking midfield	35	25.3	20	25.0
Forward 50	33	17.1	6	11.2

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
51	28.4	29	37.5

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	27	82%	85.6%	85.0%
Kysaiah Pickett	24	73%	74.1%	33.0%
Caleb Windsor	24	73%	8.1%	0.0%
Clayton Oliver	23	70%	71.1%	70.7%
Jack Viney	21	64%	67.0%	69.1%
Christian Petracca	7	21%	70.0%	55.8%
Jacob van Rooyen	6	18%	13.0%	17.8%
Trent Rivers	0	0%	18.6%	29.9%
Harvey Langford	0	0%	11.1%
Tom Sparrow	0	0%	7.1%	37.7%
Ed Langdon	0	0%	3.5%	0.7%
Christian Salem	0	0%	1.4%	12.3%
Kade Chandler	0	0%	1.2%	0.0%
Judd McVee	0	0%	0.5%	6.3%
Harrison Petty	0	0%	0.4%	7.5%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.2%	0.3%
Jake Melksham	0	0%	0.2%	0.0%
Jai Culley	0	0%	0.0%	30.9%
Tom Fullarton			17.2%
Aidan Johnson			13.9%
Matthew Jefferson			1.0%
Xavier Lindsay			0.4%
Bailey Laurie			0.0%	11.0%
Charlie Spargo			0.0%	4.2%
Koltyn Tholstrup			0.0%	5.7%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	69	75%	82.4%	81.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	15	16%	14.6%	17.6%
Harrison Petty	8	9%	1.9%	7.9%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.3%	3.1%
Clayton Oliver	0	0%	0.1%	0.0%
Tom Fullarton			20.5%
Aidan Johnson			15.6%
Matthew Jefferson			1.1%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2025)	To Adv. % (2024)
Melbourne
Max Gawn	69	29	8	27.2%	27.9%
Harrison Petty	8	4	0	27.3%	24.4%
Jacob van Rooyen	15	3	1	32.7%	24.7%
Daniel Turner	0	0	0		50.4%
Tom Fullarton				43.8%
Aidan Johnson				21.1%
Matthew Jefferson				0.0%
Opposition
Bailey J. Williams	61	26	5
Archer Reid	17	8	1
Rhett Bazzo	14	3	1
Harry Edwards	1	0	0

Not giving up a goal on center bounce is encouraging considering the Saints dominated that in the last qtr

Melbourne v West Coast (Round 21, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20252104

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	190	172	+18
2	183	187	-4
3	184	164	+20
4	173	158	+15
Match	183	170	+13

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Jack Viney	23	57	51.8
Caleb Windsor	22	53	26.1
Christian Petracca	18	45	36.5
Harrison Petty	17	44	19.1
Kade Chandler	17	37	34.5
Clayton Oliver	16	35	50.9
Kysaiah Pickett	14	35	35.8
Ed Langdon	10	23	29.8
Jai Culley	8	23	23.0
Jake Bowey	9	22	27.6
Jacob van Rooyen	8	21	20.2
Judd McVee	9	20	15.5
Jake Melksham	10	17	17.9
Bayley Fritsch	7	16	18.6
Tom Sparrow	17	14	36.4
Trent Rivers	7	13	26.9
Daniel Turner	5	12	14.0
Harvey Langford	5	11	20.4
Christian Salem	4	10	20.4
Max Gawn	3	10	19.2
Harry Sharp	5	8	19.2
Tom McDonald	2	6	13.4
Blake Howes	0	0	13.9

Source: Herald Sun

Thanks, as always, @WheeloRatings. Extraordinary detail!

I do wonder: How many people does it take to gather and record so much? How do they actually do it, and so quickly? Whose money pays them?