List Analysis

[Sir Why You Little 37,120]

40 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

How many finals have they won in the last 8 years again?

Hawthorn know all about Finals. Don’t underestimate them

12 Flags since ’71

[Diamond_Jim 12,624]

7 hours ago, Wells 11 said:

JVR? McVee? 

Good but neither are likely to challenge for elite (AA) status. At best you can say potential but they would need to move up a few gears

No intended criticism of those guys but they're not Petracca, Oliver or Lever. (Add to that May, Gawn and {Brayshaw cusp of elite})

Edited November 16 by Diamond_Jim

[Wells 11 5,422]

10 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Good but neither are likely to challenge for elite (AA) status. At best you can say potential but they would need to move up a few gears

No intended criticism of those guys but they're not Petracca, Oliver or Lever. (Add to that May, Gawn and {Brayshaw cusp of elite})

True, not yet...and we'll know more in 2025 on these two. Im holding high hopes though. 

[whatwhat say what 22,901]

1 hour ago, Wells 11 said:

True, not yet...and we'll know more in 2025 on these two. Im holding high hopes though. 

imo mcvee is already one of the best small defenders in the competition

[DeeZone 10,084]

I’m looking at this side a bit differently- 

A+ - Gawn, Petracca, May, Pickett

A - Lever, Oliver, Viney

B+ - Fritsch, Salem, Langdon, Rivers, Sparrow, Petty, McVee, JVR

B - Bowey, Melksham, Windsor, Chandler, TMac, Tholstrup 

C - C+- Turner, Spargo, Howes, Billings, Moniz-Wakefield, Sharp, Woewodin, Verrall 

Then -  Campbell, Jefferson, Laurie, Brown,  Adams, Seston, Hore, Fullarton, Kentfield.

I’ve missed a couple but I fully expect our younger players to step up in ‘25. We have another 5 players to come in potentially and I put no ceiling on any one of them, actually hoping that 5 & 9 are ready to play Round 1. As mentioned in a number of posts injury is our enemy so we need our share of luck and good fortune.

[Willy's Warriors 109]

I think its more useful to try and formulate a depth chart.  Which would look something like this: 

KPF: Van Rooyen, Jefferson, Kentfield
Small Forwards: Pickett, Moniz-wakefield, McAdam
Medium forwards: Melksham, Fritsch, Spargo, Sestan,
Mid/forwards: Tholstrup, Chandler, Billings, Laurie,
Inside Mids: Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Sparrow, Brown
Outside Mids/Wings: Windsor, Langdon, Sharp
Rucks: Gawn, Verall, Fullarton, Campbell
Mid/defenders: Salem, Rivers, McVee, Howes, Woewodin
Small/medium defenders: Bowey, Hore
KPD: May, Lever, McDonald, Adams 
KPF/KPDs: Turner, Petty

Looking at that, I am pretty happy with our defensive stocks generally. We still need a young reliable KPD (I am not sure Adams is it) but currently it is not a priority.  If we assume one of Petty or Disco plays in defence long term, it is much more balanced. 

We need another ruck, but that's not a problem I think we can address in this draft.  

We're really lacking a quality, young, future A-grade, inside mid. 

We're also lacking a mid-forward with really damaging disposal - Spargo is probably the best of the lot, but he's injured a hell of a lot.  I think Tholstrup could be that player, but he's not quite there yet. 

We're lacking a mature KPF but that is not something we can address at the draft.  We could probably use one more up and coming KPF, but again, not a priority.

Looking at that, we could probably break it down as follows: 

High priority needs: Quality dedicated mid; mid-forward with damaging disposal

Long term needs: KPD, KPF, Ruck

If we look at it through that lens, I imagine we woud be looking at the following: 

Pick 5: Langford, Tauru, FOS, Smith
Pick 9: Tauru, Reid, Allen, Armstrong, Travaglia
Pick 79: KPD, Ruck
Rookies: KPDs, Rucks 

I think our ideal draft would be Langford/FOS/Smith, Tauru. 

We can't really go wrong picking a mid at 5.  They are all great.  I would probably lean towards Langford, because his disposal seems the most damaging, and he can play as a forward easily, but he is more high risk than Smith or FOS. 

At 9, I think Tauru and Travaglia are the safest bets.  Tauru likely will be gone by our pick, though.

Reid, Armstrong and Allan all have more question marks over them, but each have really damaging traits that mean their ceiling is really high.   

That's where I think we really need to trust JT - any of them could be elite, its just whether their downsides outweigh their advantages.  

If we pick Travaglia, I would assume it is to free up Rivers and allow him to play more midfield. 

 

 

Edited November 17 by Willy's Warriors

[ManDee 7,215]

14 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

With a variety of herbs, half a kilo of mixed beef and veal mince, several tomatoes, a carrot, zucchini and garlic, and significant cheese stocks to go with a series of flat pasta sheets, do the Demons really have what it takes to produce a carbonara in 2025? And can they afford the garlic bread?

Bolognese maybe, only 3 ingredients to carbonara (definitely not cream)

[DeeZone 10,084]

9 minutes ago, Willy's Warriors said:

I think its more useful to try and formulate a depth chart.  Which would look something like this: 

KPF: Van Rooyen, Jefferson, Kentfield
Small Forwards: Pickett, Moniz-wakefield, McAdam
Medium forwards: Melksham, Fritsch, Spargo, Sestan,
Mid/forwards: Tholstrup, Chandler, Billings, Laurie,
Inside Mids: Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Sparrow, Brown
Outside Mids/Wings: Windsor, Langdon, Sharp
Rucks: Gawn, Verall, Fullarton, Campbell
Mid/defenders: Salem, Rivers, McVee, Howes, Woewodin
Small/medium defenders: Bowey, Hore
KPD: May, Lever, McDonald, Adams 
KPF/KPDs: Turner, Petty

Looking at that, I am pretty happy with our defensive stocks generally. We still need a young reliable KPD (I am not sure Adams is it) but currently it is not a priority.  If we assume one of Petty or Disco plays in defence long term, it is much more balanced. 

We need another ruck, but that's not a problem I think we can address in this draft.  

We're really lacking a quality, young, future A-grade, inside mid. 

We're also lacking a mid-forward with really damaging disposal - Spargo is probably the best of the lot, but he's injured a hell of a lot.  I think Tholstrup could be that player, but he's not quite there yet. 

We're lacking a mature KPF but that is not something we can address at the draft.  We could probably use one more up and coming KPF, but again, not a priorty.

Looking at that, we could probably break it down as follows: 

High priority needs: Quality dedicated mid; mid-forward with damaging disposal

Long term needs: KPD, KPF, Ruck

If we look at it through that lens, I imagine we woud be looking at the following: 

Pick 5: Langford, Tauru, FOS, Smith
Pick 9: Tauru, Reid, Allen, Armstrong, Travaglia
Pick 79: KPD, Ruck
Rookies: KPDs, Rucks 

I think our ideal draft would be Langford/FOS/Smith, Tauru.  But if Tauru is gone, I think it will depend on what we see Reid and Allen becoming. 

If they are going to be reliable mids, I think we take them.  If there are question marks over them, however, then I think we take Armstrong or Travaglia, and hope Rivers fills the midfield void. 

 

 

Yes like your format Willys Warriors certainly shows our strengths and potential weaknesses, I was really just trying to Quantify our list. Notice that I missed McAdam hope I’m not subconsciously removing him due to comments on the training thread.😳

[Willy's Warriors 109]

2 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

Yes like your format Willys Warriors certainly shows our strengths and potential weaknesses, I was really just trying to Quantify our list. Notice that I missed McAdam hope I’m not subconsciously removing him due to comments on the training thread.😳

McAdam is an interesting one.  If he goes, we really need another small forward I think.  Could really see us taking the two academy players Riak Andrew (KPD) and RIcky Mentha (Small Forward) as rookies.  I think Andrew is probably more imporant long term, though, and if I was a betting man, I would say we pick up a ruck somewhere late. 

Edited November 17 by Willy's Warriors

[Turner 1,516]

3 hours ago, DeeZone said:

I’m looking at this side a bit differently- 

A+ - Gawn, Petracca, May

A - Lever, Oliver, Viney, Fritsch

B+ -Pickett, Langdon, Rivers, McVee, JVR

B - Windsor, Sparrow, Salem, Petty

C - TMac, , Spargo, Chandler, Bowey, Melksham

C+- Turner, Tholstrup, Howes, Billings, Moniz-Wakefield, Sharp, Woewodin, Campbell

Then -  Jefferson, Laurie, Brown,  Adams, Seston, Hore, Fullarton, Kentfield, Verrall

 

in bold is the changes ive made, mostly you overvalue-ing players who have not had meaningful or decisive impact on a game either ever or in over 12 months. Tholstrup played 12 games, to call him a B grader is ambitious on current output, not to say he cant or wont get there in time.

3 hours ago, Willy's Warriors said:

I think its more useful to try and formulate a depth chart.  Which would look something like this: 

KPF: Van Rooyen, Jefferson, Fullarton, Kentfield
Small Forwards: Pickett, Chandler
Medium forwards: Melksham, Fritsch, Spargo, McAdam, Sestan,
Mid/forwards: Tholstrup, Billings, Laurie,
Inside Mids: Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Rivers, Sparrow, Brown
Outside Mids/Wings: Windsor, Langdon, Sharp
Rucks: Gawn, Verall, Campbell
Small/medium defenders: Bowey, Salem, McVee, Howes, Woewodin, Moniz-wakefield, Hore
KPD: May, Lever, Adams 
KPF/KPDs: Turner, Petty, McDonald

again some adjustments imo, fullarton clearly not a ruck given our determination to play anyone else but him there and howes, woey, chandler etc will never receive mid time, if they do we are in a world of trouble, theyre scratching afl standard / mfc standard in less demandinf or important positions as it is

[DeeZone 10,084]

30 minutes ago, Turner said:

in bold is the changes ive made, mostly you overvalue-ing players who have not had meaningful or decisive impact on a game either ever or in over 12 months. Tholstrup played 12 games, to call him a B grader is ambitious on current output, not to say he cant or wont get there in time.

again some adjustments imo, fullarton clearly not a ruck given our determination to play anyone else but him there and howes, woey, chandler etc will never receive mid time, if they do we are in a world of trouble, theyre scratching afl standard / mfc standard in less demandinf or important positions as it is

You maybe correct Turner but my ratings are based on my personal thoughts and maybe hopes but I will be very surprised if we don’t get more hits than misses.

[Turner 1,516]

Key Defenders: May, McDonald, Adams

General Def: Lever, Salem, Bowey, McVee, Hore (A), Moniz-Wakefield (B), Woewodin, Howes

Midfielders: Oliver, Viney, Petracca, Rivers, Windsor, Sparrow, Langdon, Billings, Sharp, Laurie, KBrown (A)

Rucks: Gawn, Campbell, Fullarton, Verrell (A)

General Fwd: Fritsch, Pickett, Spargo, Melksham, Chandler, Tholstrup, McAdam, Sestan (A)

Key Forwards: van Rooyen, Petty, Turner, Jefferson, Kentfield (A)

 

i always like to highlight the players out of contract coz i think its a good tell on where we will look to recruit as theres obvious uncertertainty abiut the current crop. it's no wonder we went hard for Houston. It's also why after the best available at 5, travaglia or allan is my preferred targets at 9. (or tauru if he gets there). Riak would add depth as as a key back and mentha as a small forward too. If we take 79 id expect it to be a ruck or KPD

[biggestred 5,125]

re ruck stocks - hopefully we shall have a young White join us this time next year. 

[58er 6,538]

On 16/11/2024 at 08:51, Whispering_Jack said:

A pretty harsh list analysis of Melbourne’s 2024 season from John Ralph appeared in recently in the Herald Sun ~
I don’t mind some tough analysis and it will be worth revisiting this at various stages of the preseason and again during 2025 to see if some of the critical areas were addressed.

 

But he has us finishing 8th so probably more generous  than others overall. 

[58er 6,538]

On 17/11/2024 at 11:02, DeeZone said:

I’m looking at this side a bit differently- 

A+ - Gawn, Petracca, May, Pickett

A - Lever, Oliver, Viney

B+ - Fritsch, Salem, Langdon, Rivers, Sparrow, Petty, McVee, JVR

B - Bowey, Melksham, Windsor, Chandler, TMac, Tholstrup 

C - C+- Turner, Spargo, Howes, Billings, Moniz-Wakefield, Sharp, Woewodin, Verrall 

Then -  Campbell, Jefferson, Laurie, Brown,  Adams, Seston, Hore, Fullarton, Kentfield.

I’ve missed a couple but I fully expect our younger players to step up in ‘25. We have another 5 players to come in potentially and I put no ceiling on any one of them, actually hoping that 5 & 9 are ready to play Round 1. As mentioned in a number of posts injury is our enemy so we need our share of luck and good fortune.

Would swap Bowey to B + for Sparrow in B. 

[58er 6,538]

On 16/11/2024 at 15:21, Diamond_Jim said:

They are okay and some could be/are good but hard to see any of them at the elite level. (Perhaps Windsor)

Windsor will be elite and a couple of others will be almost A graders.  Two more years before all our youngsters reach their peak. 

[DeeZone 10,084]

16 minutes ago, 58er said:

Would swap Bowey to B + for Sparrow in B. 

Hoping Sparrow finds his mojo this year and back to his ‘21 form.

[58er 6,538]

5 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Hoping Sparrow finds his mojo this year and back to his ‘21 form.

Yes we all can’t wait here’s hoping Tommy can finally deliver on potential.