Preview - Melbourne v Adelaide

[Demonland 66,928]

CHUFFED by Sam the Stats Man

When decisions are made to give out the duties around here, the powers that be rarely think of me so I was chuffed to learn that after nine straight defeats the gig of previewing Melbourne v Adelaide at the G this week is mine. I learned later that the others had refused to take up the challenge which suggests that my assignment is something of a poisoned chalice. However, I’m delighted to step up to the plate and to take on the task.

In view of the fact that Melbourne is taking on one of those upstart new boys on the block from outside Victoria and that our own CEO Steve Harris has weighed into the interstate debate, I thought I would start at exactly that point. Harris is of the view that the non-Victorians have an advantage over the Melbourne based clubs. He has warned that football spending has escalated into an "arms race" with the potential to blow up in the faces of battling Victorian clubs. The fear is that the AFL is at risk of turning into a version of the lop-sided English Premier League where a few rich clubs have dominated the past decade or so.

Without wishing to steal Steve's thunder, I want to expand on his theory and go one step beyond the "arms race" and look at another race which has seen Melbourne at such a disadvantage this year – the "legs race"!

Whichever way you look at the Melbourne list this season, you'll find that the Demons have been getting it in the legs - stress fractures, hamstrings, groins, ankles, knees and the like. It's a bloody pestilence and they have to do something about it!

Earlier this year, the Crows were complaining about their own injury list on account of the fact that they had a few blokes injured in the off-season. In addition, a few of their untried players and rookies were injured but so what?

The statistics show that the things are going quite nicely for the Crows in the legs race. Of the 22 players in Saturday's Adelaide team, 18 of them will be lining up for their 10th game this season - an AFL high. One of the 22 is Jonathon Griffin who was virtually ruled out earlier this week with an ankle injury while skipper Mark Mark Ricciuto makes his return after being out since Round 20 last year. On the other hand, with Brad Miller's demise through a wrist injury, Melbourne will field only six who will have played in every game this season - an AFL low!

A statistical look at the Melbourne list reveals just how badly the club is faring in the legs race: -

BARTRAM, Clint MFC - 1 game 0 goals - after spending almost all summer in rehab recovering from an ankle injury, Bartram was recalled for the opening game of the season and was used sparingly. Injured a knee at training before Round 2 and isn't due back for another two or three weeks.

BATE, Matthew MFC - 8 games 6 goals - another late withdrawal from last week's game with a hamstring injury. Pity because he was just starting to show some real confidence and a belief in his capacity to play well at the highest level.

BELL, Daniel MFC - 9 games 1 goal - starting to fulfill his early promise and has done some great work week in, week out under extreme pressure in an often beleaguered defence.

BIZZELL, Clint MFC - 2 games 0 goals SFC Seniors - 4 games 0 goals - after a long period dogged by injury, Biz played his best game in over two years last week against the Kangaroos and helped in nearly getting the team over the line.

BODE, Jace ® MFC - SFC Seniors - 2 games 0 goals SFC Reserves - 4 games 1 goal - hasn't really kicked on but is back in the senior team this week.

BROWN, Nathan MFC - 8 games 1 goal - gets the ball but sometimes you never know where it's going. Was dropped last week but received some respite due to two late withdrawals. In the twilight of his career.

BRUCE, Cameron MFC - 9 games 4 goals - probably close to leading the club's best and fairest without being a world beater this season. Seems to grow in stature when he has other experienced team leaders around him.BUCKLEY, Simon SFC Seniors - 6 games 1 goal – coming along slowly at Sandringham.

CARROLL, Nathan MFC - 9 games 0 goals - feeling the pressure in a weak defence but has done some nice things and impressed last week at full back.

DAVEY, Aaron MFC - 9 games 8 goals - another player who was completely out of form in the early games but is coming good with a vengeance in recent times.

DUNN, Lynden MFC - 6 games 5 goals SFC Seniors - 1 game 2 goals - a serious facial injury kept him out of the first couple of rounds and has been hot and cold on return to the Melbourne side and he’s out this week.

FERGUSON, Ryan MFC - 2 games 0 goals SFC Seniors - 4 games 5 goals - The injury prone defender can't take a trick. Broke a thumb after struggling early against West Coast and will be out for another month.

FRAWLEY, James MFC - 1 game 0 goals SFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals SFC Reserves - 1 game 0 goals - was on course for a Round 1 debut until stress fractures in the foot put him out for almost two months. Came back through the Sandy reserves and was concussed in the first quarter and hospitalised. Was then promoted to the seniors at Sandringham and obviously impressed enough to gain further promotion to the AFL where he struggled against the Kangaroos.

GARLAND, Colin MFC - 1 game 0 goals SFC Seniors - 5 games 3 goals - was given a cameo role in Sydney but failed to impress and is back in development mode at Sandringham.

GODFREY, Simon MFC - 8 games 3 goals - disposal and decision making have improved marginally and he has been terrific as the hardworking tagger. Closing in on 100 games which would be a tribute to his work ethic and one that others with more talent could well take note of his determination to play the game at the highest level.

GREEN, Brad MFC - 7 games 8 goals - an average season. Was taken apart by Shannon Grant against the Kangaroos and look better when he went forward.

HAYES, Daniel ® - was unable to train due to personal reasons and suspended from playing. Picked this week for the Zebra reserves.

HOLLAND, Ben MFC - 4 games 0 goals SFC Seniors - 3 games 1 goal - struggles at AFL level where he doesn't have the agility or accurate disposal to hurt the opposition in any way. Dropped this week.

HUGHES, Daniel ® SFC Seniors - 4 games 5 goals SFC Reserves - 2 games 4 goals - showing some promise with the Zebras.

JAMAR, Mark MFC - 5 games 3 goals SFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals - just went as the second ruckman before he was dropped to Sandringham where he suffered a hamstring injury and has missed the past two or three weeks.

JOHNSON, Chris MFC - 3 games 0 goals SFC Seniors - 4 games 2 goals - failed to come up after a stellar pre season but has played some impressive football at Sandringham.

JOHNSON, Paul MFC - 7 games 0 goals SFC Seniors - 1 game 1 goal - grabbed the opportunity in the absence of Mark Jamar and now seems to have a firm hold on the second ruck position.

JOHNSTONE, Travis MFC - 8 games 4 goals - has been strongly tagged in a few games but is slowly working his way into form after a sluggish start.

JONES, Nathan MFC - 8 games 3 goals - missed just one game with injury and is a definite rising star among the Demon young guns.

McDONALD, James MFC - 9 games 2 goals - struggling to uphold the high standard he set in 2006 but nevertheless has been a valuable player and one of the few who has taken part in all nine games.

McLEAN, Brock MFC - 2 games 0 goals - another early season casualty, McLean fractured a foot in the opening round but showed his worth with a 22 possession game on return with limited ground time.

MILLER, Brad MFC - 9 games 7 goals - hasn't really set the world on fire and really struggled when the other guns of the forward line were absent. A wrist injury this week means that Miller will be absent.

MOLONEY, Brent MFC - 6 games 4 goals - returned after an injury wracked 2006 and was probably close to Melbourne's best until a recurrence of groin problems took its toll. Still a week or two away.

NEAVES, Shane ® SFC Seniors - 6 games 0 goals - continues to impress as a developing ruckman at Sandringham.

NEITZ, David MFC - 6 games 12 goals - averaging two goals a game but missed a few with a knee injury and has taken a while to come good after his return a few weeks ago.

NEVILLE, Heath MFC - SFC Reserves - 6 games 2 goals - languishing in the VFL reserves but gets his chance this week at senior VFL level.

NEWTON, Michael MFC - SFC Seniors - 6 games 16 goals - has been freakish at Sandringham, kicking bags of six and five goals but still struggles to break into the AFL. What are they waiting for?

PETTERD, Ricky MFC - 4 games 2 goals SFC Seniors - 3 games 1 goal - a breath of fresh air, this young recruit has shown enormous poise and ability in his debut season. Hasn't missed out on the club's injury plague either as he missed the Round 7 game v Western Bulldogs with a hammy.

PICKETT, Byron MFC - 3 games 1 goals SFC Seniors - 3 games 4 goals - came into the season unfit, overweight and with family problems. Currently under suspension and confined to Sandringham for a couple of weeks after an indiscretion on the eve of the Bulldogs' game.

RIVERS, Jared MFC - 3 games 0 goals - a succession of injuries continues to keep Melbourne's best and most talented defender out of the team.

ROBERTSON, Russell MFC - 3 games 7 goals SFC Seniors - 1 game 4 goals - suffered a knee injury late in the Round 2 game against Hawthorn and returned last week with a three goal performance that helped to livened up a forward line that has been virtually comatose for much of the year.

SYLVIA, Colin MFC - 5 games 6 goals SFC Seniors - 1 game 3 goals - was just starting to show the form that made him a high draft pick when a hamstring injury kept him out of the Kangaroos game.

WARD, Daniel MFC - 7 games 1 goal SFC Seniors - 2 games 0 goals - has seized his opportunities with vacancies caused in defence due to injuries and loss of form but his delivery and decision making is a problem.

WARNOCK, Matthew MFC - 2 games 1 goal SFC Seniors - 4 games 0 goals - has shown some glimpses of form at AFL level but still unable to grab a regular spot in the red and blue.

WEETRA, Isaac MFC - SFC Reserves - 1 game 0 goals - injured hamstring during the preseason and was due to return when it went again. When he recovered from that injury, Weetra broke his wrist first up in the Zebra twos.

WHEATLEY, Paul MFC - 3 games 0 goals SFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals - injuries have curtailed his season, the latest being a shoulder problem.

WHELAN, Matthew MFC - 5 games 0 goals - an early casualty in Round 1 after a clash of heads with Luke Ball and has missed recently with a foot injury. Can't seem to stay on the park with regularity and his absences are hurting the team.

WHITE, Jeff MFC - 9 games 4 goals - has been hot and cold this season and is finding things tougher against the bigger opponents but still capable of some good football and still holding down the number 1 ruck position.

YZE, Adem MFC - 7 games 4 goals SFC Seniors - 1 game 2 goals - - missed selection in Round 2 to end a remarkable run of 226 consecutive matches dating back a decade. Fought his way back into the team and played some good games before he was a late withdrawal from the Demons' team that lost to the Kangaroos by a point last week with a groin injury. Will miss again this week against Adelaide.

In all, the Demons have tried 36 players this year (ten more than Adelaide) and, of the remaining four listed players, there’s a fair chance that Simon Buckley and Michael Newton will eventually get a run in Melbourne colours at some time later this year. That is, if their legs can keep them in the race for a game.

THE GAME:

Melbourne v. Adelaide at the MCG – 2 June 2007 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Melbourne 8 wins Adelaide 16 wins

At the G: Melbourne 4 wins Adelaide 4 wins

Since 2000: Melbourne 3 wins Adelaide 8 wins

The Coaches: Daniher 1 wins Craig 4 wins

MEDIA:

TV Channel 10 at 3pm (delayed telecast)

RADIO MMM 3AW 774ABC

THE BETTING: Melbourne to win $2.95 Adelaide to win $1.35

LAST TIME THEY MET: Adelaide 23.14.152 d Melbourne 14.10.94, Round 22, 2006, at AAMI Stadium.

This was the game that really destroyed Melbourne's season. The Demons turned up chock full of confidence playing an injury ravaged and out of form Adelaide side that was on the skids. The Crows gave the Demons a hammering from start to finish. Clint Bartram damaged his ankle early and Brock McLean was reported for making head high contact. David Neitz booted five goals but the rest were lamentable and the Crows, with Welsh and Goodwin running rampant had the easiest of ins to tune up for the finals series. It was one of the pathetic displays at an interstate venue that probably convinced the powers that be in the football department that the team needed to adopt the "run and carry" style of game that has been a feature of Melbourne's season to date.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Daniel Ward Nathan Carroll Ricky Petterd

Half backs James Frawley Clint Bizzell Daniel Bell

Centreline Travis Johnstone James McDonald Aaron Davey

Half forwards Brad Green Russell Robertson Cameron Bruce

Forwards Colin Sylvia David Neitz Matthew Bate

Followers Jeff White Simon Godfrey Nathan Jones

Interchange Nathan Brown Paul Johnson Brock McLean Paul Wheatley

Emergencies Lynden Dunn Ben Holland Chris Johnson

In Matthew Bate Colin Sylvia Paul Wheatley

Out Brad Miller (wrist) Lynden Dunn Ben Holland

ADELAIDE

Backs Martin Mattner Ben Rutten Nathan Bassett

Half backs Andrew McLeod Scott Stevens Jason Torney

Centreline Michael Doughty Robert Shirley Nathan van Berlo

Half forwards Simon Goodwin Nathan Bock Chris Knights

Forwards Scott Welsh Ian Perrie Mark Ricciuto

Followers Ben Hudson Scott Thompson Tyson Edwards

Interchange Jonathon Griffin Graham Johncock Jason Porplyzia Brent Reilly

Emergencies Luke Jericho Ken McGregor Kris Massie

In Mark Ricciuto

Out Luke Jericho

Umpires Margetts Hendrie Goldspink

How do you think the 0-9 Demons are going to fare against 6-3 Crows?

The bookies have decided that it is not going to be pleasant. They have Melbourne at $2.95 to win a two horse race on their own home ground but to my mind (and speaking statistically of course) it's not always wise to ignore home ground advantage.

Melbourne and Adelaide have met five times since Neil Craig took over the helm of the Crows late in 2004. Strangely enough (and fitting in with the Harris theory of non Victorian club advantage), four of those games have been held in a state other than Victoria. Three of the games were played at AAMI Stadium and one at Carrara last year when Adelaide fell in by 5 points after a goal umpire judged that Aaron Davey had failed to touch a shot for goal before it crossed the goal line. The other game played in 2005 at the MCG was Neale Daniher's only triumph over Craig.

I'm tipping him to do it again this Saturday.

Home ground advantage however, is not the overriding factor. I believe the Crows are overrated and I say this because I say them struggle to win against a talentless Carlton at the Dome last week and indeed, it was the talent of a former Demon in Scott Thompson that got them over the line. You might argue that the Demons are equally talentless given that we're now into Round 10 and they haven't broken the ice yet but, as my statistical analysis of the team has shown, they've been pretty stiff with injury. Despite losing players on a regular basis to the leg race, I think the team selected for this week is the best that the Demons have put on the park all year. With Neitz and Robertson together showing some semblance of form on the forward line, the return of Matthew Bate and Colin Sylvia gives the Melbourne attack some potency that has been missing all season. Brock McLean has a game under his belt after his two month absence and with Nathan Jones improving in front of our eyes in the midfield, the Demons are moving in the right direction.

I'm very confident of a Melbourne win at home. And if the Dees get up by the 10 point margin I predict, then I'll really be chuffed.

[beelzebub 22,718]

I'll have whatever he's chuffing !!

great preview Sam ...... *wink* :-)

[45HG 1,539]

i think the kangas game has been severely etched into Sam's brain. the crows game last year saw a davey shot for goal ruled as touched before the line, resulting in a 5 point loss to melbourne, not a one point win to the crows because davey was judged to have touched the ball across the line, as was the case on sunday.

[alpha33 277]

Love your optimism Sam.

Thanks for the stats as well. They really bring home how much injuries have contributed to our poor season thus far. And to think that at one stage just before the Nab Cup started we had virtually the whole list on the track with the exception of Colin Sylvia who was always set to return in the early rounds.

[demonfanjezza 1]

Nick work Sam

Thanks for all the info that you provided

[Rolling Stone 107]

I'm confident of a Melbourne win at home. And if the Dees get up by the 10 point margin I predict, then I'll really be chuffed.

I'm chuffed as well but you underestimated a little.