NON-MFC: Finals Week 01

[Demonland 71,236]

 

[Demonland 71,236]

Port Adelaide v Geelong, qualifying final 

PORT ADELAIDE 

Strengths: The Power are pressure specialists, as they showed in round 24 against Fremantle, and rank second in the League for pressure factor across the season (187), winning 13 of the 17 games in which they have come out on top. Defending stoppage is another major strength, conceding just 27.4 points a game from clearances (No.2 in the League). When it comes to the back six, last year's recruiting drive and the form of Aliir Aliir has allowed Port to control the air, conceding just 8.9 marks a game in defensive 50 (No.1 in the League). 

Weakness: Port's finals record – and specifically its key scoring indicators in September – is a weakness. The team has a differential of +5.3 points from turnovers during the home-and-away season, which drops to -6.7 in finals. From clearances, the scoring differentials drop from +7.1 to -10.3 in September.  

GEELONG

Strengths: The Cats have turned a weakness into a strength in the past nine weeks, conceding just 75.6 points a game (No.6 in the League) after averaging 105.1 points against from rounds seven to 15 (No.18). The backline has also been launching scores, with Geelong ranked No.3 in the League for points from defensive half chains (36.1 a game). They average a League-high 19.2 from defensive 50. In attack, the Cats are kicking a goal from 25.7 per cent of their inside 50s (No.3).

Weakness: Finals can become a much more contested brand, and Geelong is one of only three finalists in the negative for contested possession differential. It has won the count in just 36.4 per cent of games (No.16), but has its midfield star Patrick Dangerfield in excellent touch ahead of finals.   

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, elimination final 

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Strengths: The Bulldogs are excellent at not letting opposition momentum get out of control, conceding five goals in a row only five times through the season (No.2 in the League). Rory Lobb's move to defence has been critical in enhancing the team's defensive game, keeping opponents to fewer than 60 points four times since round 16. The Bulldogs give backline coaches nightmares with their ability to score from forward 50 stoppages (11.3 points a game, No.1) and forward 50 turnovers (11.7, No.1). Their forwards also prevent opposition teams from launching effective ball-movement, ranking No.2 in the League for opposition inside 50s from defensive 50 chains.  

Weakness: The Bulldogs' midfield has shortcomings with both its ability to win hitouts-to-advantage (-4.2 a game, No.17 in the League) and, by extension, first possessions at stoppages (-6.3 a game, No.18). 

HAWTHORN

Strengths: The Hawks have become a scoring juggernaut, ranking a clear No.1 since round 19 (125.3 points a game) as their array of scoring options run riot. They exploit momentum and have kicked five goals in a row 16 times this season (only Sydney has achieved this more). They are the competition's best groundball team (+8.9) and have a form-line since round eight that exceeds any team, ranking No.1 for points scored, points conceded, disposal differential, contested possession differential and uncontested possession differential.

Weakness:  There is one statistical weakness for the Hawks, who rank No.11 overall for pressure rating (179) and second last among finalists. They also lost the tackle count by an average of seven per game across the season, but this can be attributed to their possession strength.

Sydney v Greater Western Sydney, qualifying final 

SYDNEY 

Strengths: The Swans' goalkicking midfielders give them several statistical strengths, including the League's best scoring spread, with an average of 8.1 goalkickers a game. They also rank No.1 with 97.5 points a game and 55.9 points from turnovers. They are the AFL's best team for scores from clearance differential (+10.7), thanks in large part to the front half power of Chad Warner (32 goals) and Isaac Heeney (28). While the Swans spend less time in the front half that their opposition, they rank No.2 for points from forward half stoppages and forward half turnovers. 

Weakness: Slow starts have become a habit for the Swans, who have led at quarter-time only three times since round 10 and have been outscored by 13.2 points a game in first quarters over this period. 

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

Strengths: The Giants' 'Orange Tsunami' game style is a proven finals brand that sees the team lead the League in metres gained from handball (480.2m per game), averaging 284.7m more than their opponents per game. They are also the League's best pressure team, ranking No.1 for pre-clearance pressure and No.3 for post-clearance pressure. With Coleman medallist Jesse Hogan leading the way, the Giants have a shot at goal accuracy of 54.7 per cent (No.2 in the League). At the other end of the ground their defenders are preventing easy shots, with the Giants ranking No.2 for opposition shot at goal accuracy (45.1 per cent).  

Weakness:  The Giants have relied heavily on Tom Green (55) and ruckman Kieren Briggs (53) for centre clearances this season, with both ranked in the top 10 across the competition. It hasn't converted into a scoring source, however, with the team ranked No.12 for points from centre bounce differential.  

Brisbane v Carlton, elimination final 

BRISBANE

Strengths: The Lions have the best balance when it comes to scoring from and defending turnovers, ranking No.1 for scores from turnover differential. Their ability to control territory is a big factor, winning the inside 50 count by 10.1 a game (No.2) and time in forward half differential by 7:46 (No.2). The Lions' form line stacks up, with just two losses since their round 12 bye, ranking No.1 on the form ladder since then. They are one of only two teams to average more than 100 points in that time.    

Weakness:  The Lions have the third lowest pressure rating across the season (176), with only West Coast and Richmond applying less heat. Their pressure factor of 150 in the final round was the club's lowest ever on record. 

CARLTON

Strengths: The Blues might not generate a lot of forward half intercepts (No.14 overall), but they have scored from 36.6 per cent of them and added a competition-high 30.1 points a game from the key source. Efficiency and conversion is crucial for the Blues, who scored from 48.2 per cent of their entries (No.2), kicking a goal from 26.7 per cent of them (N0.1). Their shot at goal accuracy of 53.5 per cent ranks No.3. Carlton also has a trendsetting contest game, winning the contested possession count in 73.9 per cent of games (No.1 in the AFL). 

Weakness: The Blues' formline has been an issue since round 16 as they have battled a recent spate of injuries, ranking No.13 on the form ladder in that time. They have ranked outside the top eight in points scored, points conceded, time in forward half differential and defending ball movement in that time.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

On 25/08/2024 at 22:14, Jaded No More said:

I just want Carlton Geelong and Hawks to lose. Thank you. 

And eventually Port.

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, Demonland said:

I never imagined I'd forgive GWS for the whole Scully saga, but it did lead to us getting Jesse, which led to May, and eventually, a premiership. I think that helped me move on from it.

Honestly, I'd be happy to see Jesse win a flag, and since I don’t know any GWS supporters, I’d be fine with them taking it too – no risk of dealing with anyone insufferable!

The rest can go in the bin. Go Giants.

Ricky Lever wants the Giants to win the premiership for one reason, that being that the celebrations will be far away enough that we won’t have to hear about it. 😅

I’d love to see Jesse with a premiership medal around his neck. He’s truly deserving of it. Will always be one of us. ❤️💙

[The heart beats true 18,095]

5 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Ricky Lever wants the Giants to win the premiership for one reason, that being that the celebrations will be far away enough that we won’t have to hear about it. 😅

I’d love to see Jesse with a premiership medal around his neck. He’s truly deserving of it. Will always be one of us. ❤️💙

I’m very happy for any non Victorian team to win the flag, as it’ll feel like it didn’t really happen here, but…

I’m super nervous about what that means for the fixture next year. AFL will be keen to recoup losses, so expect 2025 to see Collingwood and Carlton schedules for 12 games each against Richmond - to make sure they are both top 4 by season end.

[dl4e 5,851]

The footy should be interesting tonite. Not for the game itself but for the zoo keeping behaviours of the Port filth. See how many toothless monkeys you can count in the stands.

[Lexinator 1,659]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1211855/western-bulldogs-spring-surprise-selection-call-in-james-harmes-for-hawthorn-hawks-clash

Happy for the man!

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,720]

5 minutes ago, Lexinator said:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1211855/western-bulldogs-spring-surprise-selection-call-in-james-harmes-for-hawthorn-hawks-clash

Happy for the man!

I watched a bit of him last week and he was too good for VFL and suggested in an earlier post that he could be selected.

His mid season form at the Dogs was good before he got injured and unlike last year he was hitting the scoreboard for the Bulldogs.

 

[Mt. Dee-Maaan 603]

Port vs Geelong

Dogs vs Hawks

Swans vs Giants

Lions vs Blues

 

[Jaded No More 68,855]

I didn't even realise finals started tonight. That's how little I care.

[DubDee 25,526]

Yeah it's hard to give a rats, especially about tonight.

Also impossible to predict, given the flaky nature of the top 4. Port could win by 60pts or just 'do a Port in finals' and get hammered. They are the form team though so should beat Cats

 

[DubDee 25,526]

Todd Marshall not in Port's 23?

Get 'im on the blower Goody!

MARSHALL!

[Jibroni 4,987]

God I hate both teams tonight I don't care who wins. A few hamstrings will do me.

Otherwise I'm on the NSW train.

[roy11 3,828]

'Tom Stewart will be a late out for Geelong tonight.'

The old Geelong switcharoo?

[Jaded No More 68,855]

10 minutes ago, roy11 said:

'Tom Stewart will be a late out for Geelong tonight.'

The old Geelong switcharoo?

Absolute disaster for Geelong if true 

[BoBo 2,941]

Geelong out to $3. 
 

Hmmmmm. 
 

Will Port choke?

[DubDee 25,526]

Port will smash them 

then choke in the prelim 

[BDA 22,708]

Port have ruined INXS for me

[BDA 22,708]

what a goal cameron. 

[Sir Windsor 219]

That is some goal by Jezza 

[DiscoStu17 723]

JC - [censored] off

[ANG13 2,057]

Great goal to JC. 
 

It would be very funny if Port went out in straight sets again. 

[BoBo 2,941]

Port crowd quiet

[Sir Windsor 219]

How was that not a 50

[Sir Why You Little 36,954]

Port are looking exceedingly ordinary so far, again…..