On 17/11/2024 at 04:02, demoncat said:

Surely we wouldn’t pass on Draper at 5 if Crows take Langford? 😱

Surely we would not pass him up  double calamity 🤯🤯

Edited November 17, 2024Nov 17 by picket fence

  On 17/11/2024 at 01:08, Slartibartfast said:

Not having a crack at you but this concept of "best available" just doesn't make sense.  How can you say "best available" when your comparing a ruck, a key position forward, a small crumbing forward and a mid?  Apples, oranges, pineapples and kiwi fruit.  What's best?

It's not just based on talent, it's based on scarcity, risk, needs and projection.  We will be picking based on best available taking into account all of these factors and what we take will be instructive.  If we believe Clarrie and Trac will be ours at their best long term then our picks are more likely to take into account May and Tmac's age.  If we believe they will both be gone next year then that will impact our choices albeit that we would hopefully have  Richmond like suite of first round picks.  If we believe Jefferson will succeed then that will influence what we take.

Our picks aren't in a bubble and what is "best available" to one club will be very different to another.  Just look at NM looking at taking Tauru well ahead of his "best available" statue.

Our picks on Wednesday will tell us quite a lot.

It’s pretty simple no smart-[censored]-ery intended — just means next player they have on their list still on board, irrespective of needs..kind of like doing a Top 50 players and list and there being no parameters other than whom you think is the best player each pick w/o contextualising it whatsoever. 

  On 17/11/2024 at 01:14, DeeSpencer said:

He’s clean at times but there’s a lot of two grabbing or the ball going off his hands.

If he was an exceptional mark to go with his rare athleticism for a tall and straight set shot kicking he’d be a sure thing top 5 pick. 

Lloyd is pumping up his guy, not really an unbiased opinion.

I think Armstrong is at high risk of being a bust. Has the nice looking left foot kick, but doesn't seem to kick many or any goals away from a set shot. He's no Jezza Cameron despite having the same style. His contested marks are mostly the 'uncontested' type of marks where you float across the front with no direct opponent. Weid was the same. 

Worse still, if you watch some of his interviews I'm just not sure he has the sharpness or desire. An 18 yo footballer, I know, so I'm not expecting Shakespeare - but I don't know - watch it yourself and form an opinion...not sure he has the spark. 

KPFs in particular at the draft are huge risks, particularly higher up. When you're taller and more developed than other kids your age, and in a system where defensive accountability is generally 2nd priority, it's easy to get on the end of a few and in so doing, actually develop habits that aren't helpful at the top level (see Weid, potentially Jeffo). The biggest difference between all other levels of footy and AFL is defense and pressure. 

Even Jed Walter, who is a competitive animal and not a flying beanstalk, has struggled to look the level so far. 

Honestly I think the best KPFs can often be found as KPDs or swingmen at the draft. Naughton, Hogan, Jvr (not that he's quite there yet) all played defense as juniors. 

Cadman looks ok but is being given lots of time. Jeremy Cameron is a total freak of nature and took a few years to get going at GWS as well, and he's just about the highest talent ceiling a KPF prospect could ever have. You need a strong club to be able to guide through those initial years without actually hurting their development. 

Fox Footy will be dropping their phantom draft tonight.

I’m still thinking Tauru is going to be our guy.

Lalor to Richmond

Carlton want Draper and Adelaide want Jagga Smith.

North like FOS at 2, so surely if they slide back, they are still going to like him at 4 if he’s there (and he will be). Contrary to popular belief I don’t think a slide back from North means they are taking Tauru. 
 

It leaves Langford on the board but multiple sources seem to think we are in love with Tauru. 

I am not at all happy with this scenario but this is what I see happening. 
 

Tauru to the Dees! 

 

  On 17/11/2024 at 06:38, fr_ap said:

I think Armstrong is at high risk of being a bust. Has the nice looking left foot kick, but doesn't seem to kick many or any goals away from a set shot. He's no Jezza Cameron despite having the same style. His contested marks are mostly the 'uncontested' type of marks where you float across the front with no direct opponent. Weid was the same. 

Worse still, if you watch some of his interviews I'm just not sure he has the sharpness or desire. An 18 yo footballer, I know, so I'm not expecting Shakespeare - but I don't know - watch it yourself and form an opinion...not sure he has the spark. 

KPFs in particular at the draft are huge risks, particularly higher up. When you're taller and more developed than other kids your age, and in a system where defensive accountability is generally 2nd priority, it's easy to get on the end of a few and in so doing, actually develop habits that aren't helpful at the top level (see Weid, potentially Jeffo). The biggest difference between all other levels of footy and AFL is defense and pressure. 

Even Jed Walter, who is a competitive animal and not a flying beanstalk, has struggled to look the level so far. 

Honestly I think the best KPFs can often be found as KPDs or swingmen at the draft. Naughton, Hogan, Jvr (not that he's quite there yet) all played defense as juniors. 

Cadman looks ok but is being given lots of time. Jeremy Cameron is a total freak of nature and took a few years to get going at GWS as well, and he's just about the highest talent ceiling a KPF prospect could ever have. You need a strong club to be able to guide through those initial years without actually hurting their development. 

I have a huge concern with Armstrong (outside of his marking), that being his disposal numbers. I’m well aware KPFs are there to kick goals, and not rack up the footy, but averaging less than 10 touches in the CTL and carnival is worrying. When I think of the best KPFs (curnow, Cameron etc.) I think of their ability to link up play higher up the ground, marking high up the wing, and being involved later in the play, forward of the ball. Just checking the stats, Jezza averaged 16.1 touches last season. The best KPFs in the comp don’t thrive off <10 disposal games. To be averaging that at u18s level suggests that Armstrong is a long long way off being AFL ready. 

It's really only media speculation linking Tarau to Nth. Not sure where they rank him but Rawlings said they will not over reach.

It would be a risk teading to the Tigers pick 6 in case the Dee's snapped him up at 5.

If they want him it's likely pick 2.

Twomey says Langford is right for AFL for round 1 and he can play forward and has height.

North may take Langford. Smillie is taller than Taura and may be able to play half back and half forward as well as mid.

 

 

  On 17/11/2024 at 07:13, Roddog said:

I have a huge concern with Armstrong (outside of his marking), that being his disposal numbers. I’m well aware KPFs are there to kick goals, and not rack up the footy, but averaging less than 10 touches in the CTL and carnival is worrying. When I think of the best KPFs (curnow, Cameron etc.) I think of their ability to link up play higher up the ground, marking high up the wing, and being involved later in the play, forward of the ball. Just checking the stats, Jezza averaged 16.1 touches last season. The best KPFs in the comp don’t thrive off <10 disposal games. To be averaging that at u18s level suggests that Armstrong is a long long way off being AFL ready. 

100% mate. Not sure he has many strings to his bow....and hardly a dominant stay at home forward in any case. 

  On 17/11/2024 at 06:38, fr_ap said:

I think Armstrong is at high risk of being a bust. Has the nice looking left foot kick, but doesn't seem to kick many or any goals away from a set shot. He's no Jezza Cameron despite having the same style. His contested marks are mostly the 'uncontested' type of marks where you float across the front with no direct opponent. Weid was the same. 

Worse still, if you watch some of his interviews I'm just not sure he has the sharpness or desire. An 18 yo footballer, I know, so I'm not expecting Shakespeare - but I don't know - watch it yourself and form an opinion...not sure he has the spark. 

KPFs in particular at the draft are huge risks, particularly higher up. When you're taller and more developed than other kids your age, and in a system where defensive accountability is generally 2nd priority, it's easy to get on the end of a few and in so doing, actually develop habits that aren't helpful at the top level (see Weid, potentially Jeffo). The biggest difference between all other levels of footy and AFL is defense and pressure. 

Even Jed Walter, who is a competitive animal and not a flying beanstalk, has struggled to look the level so far. 

Honestly I think the best KPFs can often be found as KPDs or swingmen at the draft. Naughton, Hogan, Jvr (not that he's quite there yet) all played defense as juniors. 

Cadman looks ok but is being given lots of time. Jeremy Cameron is a total freak of nature and took a few years to get going at GWS as well, and he's just about the highest talent ceiling a KPF prospect could ever have. You need a strong club to be able to guide through those initial years without actually hurting their development. 

I get the concerns. Although we’ve drafted guys like Oliver and Luke Jackson who haven’t been much for the talking when they were picked (or since). But I agree it’s nice if key forwards especially have some swagger. 

Armstrong reminds me more of Harry McKay than Jezza. McKay was very much a kick-mark type player early in his afl career who’s slowly added more strings. In an ideal world you take a guy who can do a lot more than just key forward stuff so they can play earlier. The one thing Armstrong has is elite agility to be a decent tackler and contribute on the deck. So even if he’s pushed around in marking contests he can give something and not be a total witches hat for his first few years. 

No mail but I have a sneaky suspicion we might like Jack Whitlock as much if not more, especially with a trade back a few places.

Melbourne has been linked to whichever top-line midfielder slides to the Demons at pick five to add another young first-class ballwinner or a Jake Lever replacement in Tauru if he slides past North.

We're linked to Tauru at 5 because of the fake rumour I spread on Bigfooty 

The tea leaves are beginning to reveal themselves more and more, sounds like:

If Lalor, FOS, Jagga, Langford are off the board, we will take Tauru

Assuming one of the above four midfielders are available (reliant on Norf taking Tauru OR Draper going in the top 4), we would take that leftover midfielder over Tauru

  On 17/11/2024 at 08:30, adonski said:

The tea leaves are beginning to reveal themselves more and more, sounds like:

If Lalor, FOS, Jagga, Langford are off the board, we will take Tauru

Assuming one of the above four midfielders are available (reliant on Norf taking Tauru OR Draper going in the top 4), we would take that leftover midfielder over Tauru

The potential for that first scenario scares me

Edited November 17, 2024Nov 17 by demoncat

  On 17/11/2024 at 08:22, dazzledavey36 said:

Melbourne has been linked to whichever top-line midfielder slides to the Demons at pick five to add another young first-class ballwinner or a Jake Lever replacement in Tauru if he slides past North.

A characteristically obtuse article from the worst journo in the biz 

I understand Lever moves like he's 50 but I did chuckle at getting a 'Lever replacement' for a guy who's got 4 or 5 years left

I thought lever was having an awesome year pre-injury. If he gets back to that level next year then we won’t need a replacement for half a decade 

We need a May replacement not a Lever replacement lol 

  On 17/11/2024 at 08:59, 12345_54321 said:

We need a May replacement not a Lever replacement lol 

Not to mention a Tomlinson + McDonald replacement. 

in theory we have them already in Petty and Turner, but shifting them back only moves the same problem to the forward line. 

I’d be surprised if we don’t take at least one tall. 

  On 17/11/2024 at 08:30, adonski said:

If Lalor, FOS, Jagga, Langford are off the board, we will take Tauru

maybe the Tauru part is just keeping Norf honest so they don’t trade away #2 in the hope he slides down further?

  On 17/11/2024 at 09:41, The Jackson FIX said:

maybe the Tauru part is just keeping Norf honest so they don’t trade away #2 in the hope he slides down further?

Certainly hope so

I think posters have become myopically focused on the midfield because Trac and Oliver were out/hobbled this year. Yes we need to grab a midfielder but it’s certainly not our only need. We have needs for rucks, tall defenders, tall forwards and small forwards as we transition our past premiership squad into a future premiership squad.

Oliver and Trac are contracted for many years still, and we only really need to get one midfielder out of the draft especially since we got a couple of long termers with early picks last year in Windsor and Kolt.

Picking Tauru gives us a May succession and Armstrong allows us to play our younger defenders away from the forward line. We just need to hero adding talent and we’ll have a spot for them no matter who it is.

  On 17/11/2024 at 09:46, Axis of Bob said:

I think posters have become myopically focused on the midfield because Trac and Oliver were out/hobbled this year. Yes we need to grab a midfielder but it’s certainly not our only need. We have needs for rucks, tall defenders, tall forwards and small forwards as we transition our past premiership squad into a future premiership squad.

Oliver and Trac are contracted for many years still, and we only really need to get one midfielder out of the draft especially since we got a couple of long termers with early picks last year in Windsor and Kolt.

Picking Tauru gives us a May succession and Armstrong allows us to play our younger defenders away from the forward line. We just need to hero adding talent and we’ll have a spot for them no matter who it is.

Agree with the sentiment and have no issues with 1 tall, 1 mid, but if we doubled up on KPPs I'd like to see Lamb and Taylor hung drawn and quartered

  On 17/11/2024 at 07:04, dazzledavey36 said:

Fox Footy will be dropping their phantom draft tonight.

Was looking forward to this, still tonight? 😂😂

  On 17/11/2024 at 09:52, 12345_54321 said:

Was looking forward to this, still tonight? 😂😂

 

Check back in on Sunday night to see foxfooty.com.au’s phantom draft.

🤷🏼‍♂️

  On 17/11/2024 at 09:46, Axis of Bob said:

I think posters have become myopically focused on the midfield because Trac and Oliver were out/hobbled this year. Yes we need to grab a midfielder but it’s certainly not our only need. We have needs for rucks, tall defenders, tall forwards and small forwards as we transition our past premiership squad into a future premiership squad.

Oliver and Trac are contracted for many years still, and we only really need to get one midfielder out of the draft especially since we got a couple of long termers with early picks last year in Windsor and Kolt.

Picking Tauru gives us a May succession and Armstrong allows us to play our younger defenders away from the forward line. We just need to hero adding talent and we’ll have a spot for them no matter who it is.

I agree, a May replacement is important but we need a lot to go right for Oliver and Trac to both be at 100% and in Melbourne colours beyond 2025.