Always love the Pods guys, but after a win over C’wood, it will have special significance this week!

A general observation that may have relevance to several questions from fellow Demonlanders:  There’s been plenty of talk about no Clarrie and no Petts in our outstanding win against the Pies, but let’s not forget that Bowser was back close to his best form before being subbed off with concussion vs the Blues.  There will be a few selection headaches in fitting those three back into the team in coming weeks let alone giving JJ a decent run at it. 

 

Love the podcast, excellent work all. One topic that has barely been mentioned is May's kickout with 1.44 remaining. Why kick long to a contest? Presumably we were confident of winning by then, but I would have though the only thing to do would be to chip it around, short and safe, for at least 90 seconds. Going long to a contest gave the Pies a sniff, and that was all they needed to almost pinch the win. Thoughts?

  On 13/06/2023 at 05:17, Red and Bluebeard said:

Love the podcast, excellent work all. One topic that has barely been mentioned is May's kickout with 1.44 remaining. Why kick long to a contest? Presumably we were confident of winning by then, but I would have though the only thing to do would be to chip it around, short and safe, for at least 90 seconds. Going long to a contest gave the Pies a sniff, and that was all they needed to almost pinch the win. Thoughts?

Don't forget the assistance from the usual suspects.. the umpires.

  On 13/06/2023 at 01:51, buck_nekkid said:

What a game.  The crowd noise was much improved for the Dees this week, and Goody even acknowledged it.  By half time I was satisfied with what we were doing - we were showing a finals level of intensity and even with terrible goal kicking, we were well and truly in it. We were dominant from about half way through the first quarter until time on in the last.

A couple of questions:

1. Spargo - subbed out, will he now have to go back to Casey?

2. Brayshaw - big hand in at least 3 of their goals by turnover /poor decisions and delivery.  What is his value to the squad if he cost us nearly half the opposition score?  Could JJ be a better replacement?

3. Tommo played great - in the RIGHT role. As Second tall, he allows may and lever to get to work.  Where then for Petty?

4. Not too many pushed their case at Casey.  Who do you think will get a debut this year?

 

Thanks for the great podcast, and go the mighty Dees!

Gents I'd also like you to spend some time on Brayshaw.  A few points if you get time to comment on...

Firstly - His disposal is over-rated, I'd go as far as saying he is a poor handballer.  

Secondly - His loose marking in the Collingwood fwd line at ball-ups cost us two direct goals, indicates a lack of focus.

Thirdly - He seems to cruise through with very little scrutiny and never at risk of getting dropped despite having another "just average" season. 

Am I being too harsh and critical?

  On 13/06/2023 at 05:21, ElDiablo14 said:

Don't forget the assistance from the usual suspects.. the umpires.

That certainly didn't help. But IMHO we should have been able to deny them the ball in any case.

Forgive me Father (Binman) for I have sinned. My MFCSS took over and I expected a 6-10 goal loss. I prostrate myself at the feet of the 3 wise men of the almighty podcast and ask for your forgiveness. 

  On 13/06/2023 at 05:29, Phil C said:

Forgive me Father (Binman) for I have sinned. My MFCSS took over and I expected a 6-10 goal loss. I prostrate myself at the feet of the 3 wise men of the almighty podcast and ask for your forgiveness. 

Prophylactic prognostication phil on your part. 

A common self-protective strategy among dees fans.

Dees lose and its ok coz that's what you expected,

A win is a bonus.

Ok strategy, except when combined with telling every person and their dog the dees will lose, and then celebrating a victory with not a trace of irony. 

Credit for not going down that path Phil. You are forgiven.

By the by, i think there is every chance the cats will beat us. 

  On 13/06/2023 at 06:19, binman said:

By the by, i think there is every chance the cats will beat us. 

Me:

Thanks in advance for what I know will be an enjoyable podcast!

Just like with the Swans game in Round 3, it felt like Goodwin showed the ability to adapt to our opponents, rather than just 'play our way'. This appeared to be a weakness that other teams exploited last year, but one that we seem to be rectifying - do you agree?

P.S. One stat that shows how dominant we've been for the past 2.5 years: After beating the Pies, the longest losing streak the Dees have is with Brisbane at 2 games, with the opportunity to rectify that in a months' time. All other current losing streaks are 1 (Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong, Port). Our best winning streaks are Gold Coast (11), Carlton (8), and Hawthorn (6.5 if we count the draw from 2021 as half). 

  On 13/06/2023 at 06:34, Demonland said:

Me:

I said at the start of the year that the two teams I really wanted to beat was Sydney and Collingwood. But now that our next game is Geelong, I now really want to add them to my list 😄

Best game we've played in 18 months I reckon, so while Binman was on the money and deserves credit for sticking fat, I also think it's fair to say this performance was well against our recent form line. That pressure and defensive intensity is the best I've seen it since we finished 2021 with a blaze of glory. Epic to see and we're every chance of going the distance if they can do that every week.

Most people have covered off the main topics, but a couple of quick ones to add/throw in the mix:
- Having Salem back has proved to be a real difference maker, I hadn't realised how much we'd missed his reading of the play and clean disposal. Adding him, the emergence of McVee (leaving his man to create the turnover just before the Hunter bump was beautiful and the whole team ran to him afterwards), plus getting back to the three talls + Hibbo combination of our premiership defence is critical for our future success. Just don't know how Bowey gets his spot back!
- Echo the questions on Brayshaw. He does a lot of good things but also a lot of dumb things. Not sure where he's at currently.
- Further to the question above on May's kick-in during the dying moments, do you think our long to the Member's wing kick out is getting too predictable? I thought having Salem kick out led to better opportunities.
- JJ was excellent coming on as sub, but how do we squeeze him into our best 22? What do you rate our chances of holding onto him come end of the year? I reckon he's a walk up start to 12-15 AFL teams.

Thanks gents!

Edited June 13, 20231 yr by buddha82

If you have time could you discuss around this observation please.

Goodwin is a fine coach. Great systems in place, and clearly a forensic and strategic thinker.

How the MFC system has stood up without Oliver I think has been lost, or not considered in overall commentary about how we have played over the last month,

Oliver IS a significant loss, his output and his s thinking and quick hands.

BUT our game is not built around the feted ones in the midfield, as evidenced by the last 3 weeks or so.

It is robust enough to withstand the loss of arguably* the best players in the midfield in the competition.

*we know I was being diplomatic

 

 

Edited June 13, 20231 yr by Engorged Onion

Do we think we'll allow +1 at contest against Geelong? In the Collingwood game, we evened this up in the final quarter.

@Lucifers Hero has pointed out before the +1 that we allowed last time against Geelong. 

Do we allow it for 3 quarters or even most of the match and tweak it if necessary?

  On 13/06/2023 at 08:38, A F said:

Do we think we'll allow +1 at contest against Geelong? In the Collingwood game, we evened this up in the final quarter.

@Lucifers Hero has pointed out before the +1 that we allowed last time against Geelong. 

Do we allow it for 3 quarters or even most of the match and tweak it if necessary?

Hey AF we're not previewing the Geelong game this week. We'll do it next week. We're going to talk minor team changes in so far as it relates to Tomo and Smith with Petty's return considering it somewhat relates to their performances in the Pies game. Please bring this up in next weeks thread as I'll likely forget.

  On 13/06/2023 at 08:38, A F said:

Do we think we'll allow +1 at contest against Geelong? In the Collingwood game, we evened this up in the final quarter.

@Lucifers Hero has pointed out before the +1 that we allowed last time against Geelong. 

Do we allow it for 3 quarters or even most of the match and tweak it if necessary?

Di you mean we brought one more player to stoppages and had an even number with the pies?

  On 13/06/2023 at 09:00, binman said:

Di you mean we brought one more player to stoppages and had an even number with the pies?

Sorry. Evened up the stoppages. In the last quarter, we started manning up the Collingwood spare off the back of the contest. Not sure I noticed it before the last quarter.

I would love to know what you guys thought about the following: A great win, one that Binman and I predicted (should we kick straight, boy that nearly proved literally spot-on) & some rather interesting Q's come about as a result.

-- Smith's competitive streak, clear strong defensive skills, chasing, contest work and good hands: Pose an interesting quandary with Petty Likely to resume at the Cattery... What do we do with a fwd line that now has 1 too many??? DO we include Petty, Keep smith and leave out Spargo or Chin? Do we drop Smith? (something after weekend I would be against) or do we send Petty back, drop Tommo? (unlikely given excellent form of Tommo on Monday & that Petty/JVR felt like right tall mix with Gawn/Grundy resting) OR Do we somehow drop JVR? (absolutely impossible given his competitive spirit for contest, ability ot bring ball to ground, good finishing, and fact he is our future and looks closer to breaking out to a certified gun each week (IMHO only confidence about being the true alpha at the level is all that is holding him back)

PLENTY to consider there...

Also interested in what happens with Clarry, Bowser back, to Gus... A genuine headache, given backline doesn't need him and i think his i50 kick is needed therefore better downfield, does he go to HFF??? Rotate through with Spaz?

Some definite Questions that require time & likely curveballs (injuries etc) to be answered. 

 

I personally also think Woey/Howes still will come into the lineup before year is out, to see if it gives us an edge ala Bowser prior to 2021 finals... As a final thought I'd love a theory on this as well... Great win, but it does offer up A LOT to discuss :)

  On 13/06/2023 at 09:04, A F said:

Sorry. Evened up the stoppages. In the last quarter, we started manning up the Collingwood spare off the back of the contest. Not sure I noticed it before the last quarter.

That's interesting. Good pick up. I didn't notice and it wasn't mentioned on the replay.

I had the feeling we were strong in the second half, but not covering the ground all that well (nor were Collingwood for that matter).

Which would jibe with kev martin's fascinating observation from training last week (Tuesday?) that they did more running than he had seen any session all - and that Selwyn was really pushing them.

We don't bring an extra up to stoppages very often.

I wonder if it was to mitigate the impact of fatigue a bit because playing one mid down is hard yakka. 

I think our focus on defence, structure and sytem in the last two games may be part of the same strategy. Don't allow the game to become a running contest.

Edited June 13, 20231 yr by binman

  On 13/06/2023 at 04:39, DeeSpencer said:

If Smith plays it will be as a tall, not alongside 2 talls, a ruck and a Fritsch.

As well as he moves for a tall he doesn’t have the skills, the anticipation, the contest to contest work rate or the creativity of a small. 

 

Probably right, just thought it was an interesting proposition, especially given our small forwards have mainly been applying pressure as opposed to actually kicking goals.

Please make this episode 3 hours long.  That win- it does ant get any better.  I just want to luxuriate in your analysis !!!!! 

  On 13/06/2023 at 09:24, binman said:

That's interesting. Good pick up. I didn't notice and it wasn't mentioned on the replay.

I had the feeling we were strong in the second half, but not covering the ground all that well (nor did Collingwood for that matter).

Which would jibe with kev martin's fascinating observation from training last week (Tuesday?) that they did more running than he had seen any session all - and that Selwyn was really pushing them.

We don't bring an extra up to stoppages very often.

I wonder if it was to mitigate the impact of fatigue a bit because playing one mid down is hard yakka. 

I think our focus on defence, structure and sytem in the last two games may be part of the same strategy. Don't allow the game to become a running contest.

I think once we got the lead, this was a tactical tweak to ensure we didn't leak goals from defensive stoppage. Despite Daicos' goal, he was manned by Gus, so we had 1v1s all around that contest. There might have been a good block or two in that play (likely a set play), but I'm sure we realised we couldn't simply allow Daicos to sit off the back of the contest, because he's deadly.

  On 13/06/2023 at 09:42, A F said:

I think once we got the lead, this was a tactical tweak to ensure we didn't leak goals from defensive stoppage. Despite Daicos' goal, he was manned by Gus, so we had 1v1s all around that contest. There might have been a good block or two in that play (likely a set play), but I'm sure we realised we couldn't simply allow Daicos to sit off the back of the contest, because he's deadly.

Didn't stop him kicking a late goal unfortunately.

They are clever with their blocks.

And hands too - the handball from hill, to I think lipinski to set up a goal was a brilliant bit of play.

Were there any signs that they were more fatigued than us?  I couldn't find the pressure stats for the quarters, but I looked through the various tracker states on the AFL app and it seems we were pretty well matched with some notable differences:

• Total distance covered: 3 demons and 2 pies in top 5, but 4 demons and 1 pie at high speed
• Maximum speed: 1 demon (Kozzie) and 4 pies in top 5
• Average top speed: 2 demons and 3 pies
• Sprinting: 2 demons and 3 pies  in top 5
• Average speed in attack: 1 demon and 4 pies
• Average speed in defence: 5 demons!

It'd be interesting to look at the full team, but I can't find the data.  But my general take-aways are that they matched us in bursts, we had more endurance around the ground generally, and that they prioritize speed in attack but aren't fast enough in defence.

 

Best Home & Away win since we beat Richmond R6 2021 (geelong in geelong that year doesn’t count it was a miracle!)

I feel like we aren’t far away from bursting a game open. Had Chandlers snap in the last quarter gone in or Fristch’s snap from Daicos’s clanger kick in landed we would have broken their back!!

Smith got a few shots at goal and by god his closing speed to apply pressure is underrated. I hope he gets a few more games to see if he can get some confidence in his goal kicking. 
 

@binman We must have started loading  before the Fremantle game. We are kicking for goal like a fatigued side. 
 

Gawn even said on send last week we have a unique ([censored]) bye and instead have 3 10 day breaks that he thinks we will take advantage of to launch into the back end of the year!

Can Petty & Smith play in the same fwd line? Pickett is giving us absolutely nothing atm, needs to pull

his finger out and get back to the basics!

  On 13/06/2023 at 10:06, Nairobi_Demon said:

Were there any signs that they were more fatigued than us?  I couldn't find the pressure stats for the quarters, but I looked through the various tracker states on the AFL app and it seems we were pretty well matched with some notable differences:

• Total distance covered: 3 demons and 2 pies in top 5, but 4 demons and 1 pie at high speed
• Maximum speed: 1 demon (Kozzie) and 4 pies in top 5
• Average top speed: 2 demons and 3 pies
• Sprinting: 2 demons and 3 pies  in top 5
• Average speed in attack: 1 demon and 4 pies
• Average speed in defence: 5 demons!

It'd be interesting to look at the full team, but I can't find the data.  But my general take-aways are that they matched us in bursts, we had more endurance around the ground generally, and that they prioritize speed in attack but aren't fast enough in defence.

 

Pressure

Q1: 176 - 180
Q2: 174 - 172
Q3: 201 - 206
Q4: 186 - 177
Tot: 183 - 186