The Run Home

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

15 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

So, as it stands with the Brisbane win over Collingwood:

1. Collingwood still seal 1st with a win over Essendon next week
2. If Collingwood loses to Essendon, a Brisbane win over St Kilda likely (subject to percentage - they're currently even on 123.2%) sees them finish 1st
3. We can only finish 2nd now if Brisbane loses to St Kilda
4. We will likely finish 3rd if we go 2-0 and Port goes 1-1, or If we go 1-1 and Port goes 0-2, or if we go 0-2 and Carlton loses at least once
5. Given the Round 24 fixture, we will know at the time the ball is bounced whether we can finish 3rd or not (if Port win this week and have already won next week, we will know we can't move up). We will also know whether Brisbane has passed Collingwood. If we lose to Hawthorn and Carlton beats Gold Coast however, we will not know if we are locked for top 4 because Carlton plays after us.

No, we go 0-2 and we can't fiinish higher than 4th. If we win 1 game more than Port we will definitely, not likely,  finish above them because of the percentage differential.

6 hours ago, Travy14 said:

I think we finish 4th and play Collingwood in first round of finals.

I actually think this would be a good result, getting Collingwood with a few players coming in after time out of the game!

i would be happy to go to Adelaide to but that now is all but ruled out.

Bris in Bris is the only fixture that really worries me!

I agree. Normally of course 3rd is preferential to 4th but this year, given Brisbane are highly likely to finish 2nd, 4th is preferential. I accept that Collingwood are looking pretty wobbly missing crucial players but can't see them losing to Essendon and sliping below Brisbane.  

2 hours ago, old55 said:

I think we want Port to defeat Freo so we finish 4th. I think it's most likely that Collingwood defeats Essendon next week and finishes top. QF vs Collingwood at the MCG has more appeal than vs Brisbane at the Gabba.

I have mixed feelings. No, we don't want to play Brisbane at the Gabba but I still  think we'd be a big chance in that game, and if we lose I'd definitely prefer to play whoever finishes 6th or 7th in a Semi rather than Carlton who we are likely to play if we lose to Collingwood. Also we cross over and Collingwood in a Prelim at the MCG is probably preferable to Brisbane in a Prelim at the Gabba. I guess in a nutshell I'm saying Brisbane in a Qualifying is not a disastrous matchup.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

Right now all I care about is beating Hawthorn tomorrow. Even better if Carlton lose today and I can relax a day early. I'm planning on going to the Sydney-Melbourne game next weekend and I don't think I could handle being there knowing we need to win to finish Top 4.

[titan_uranus 24,631]

7 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

The traditionalists here will be disappointed that we will most likely have to wear our clash royal blue jumper throughout almost all finals we play (aside from the Semi Final if we lose the Qualifying Final, and the Preliminary Final if we win the Qualifying Final) unless some major finals upsets occur (i.e. teams outside the Top 4 progressing through). Yep, we’d be wearing it in the Grand Final without question too if we got that far. 

4 hours ago, old55 said:

Not in the PF or GF if we finish a lower ranked team gets thru to play us.

In H&A we wear the clash against all three of our top 4 opponents. 

In a QF, or in a PF if we lose the QF, we will probably have to wear the clash. However, I don’t know if finals permit tweaks to the rules, because IMO we don’t clash with Collingwood (we didn’t wear a clash jumper against them until 2019 IIRC) and we shouldn’t clash with Brisbane (Carlton, Essendon and Adelaide don’t have to wear their clash jumpers against them).

The GF gets more confusing. If we make it against a side who finished above us on the ladder you’d expect the same clash rules to apply but the rules have been confusing over the years.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 8/17/2023 at 8:51 PM, beelzebub said:

Very interesting...in a way... but to be honest it makes not an iota of difference.  I mean no disrespect.  I simply observe every meeting ( game ) has its own dynamics and thats supposed upon any number of ifs buts maybes . Its about as predictable as the bounce of our belived ball. It ought to do A...but the minute you bank that..it wont.

The very best of odds brokers have very elaborate algorithms to predict outcomes. Invariably across a round they come out ok, but that in and of itself doesn't address the aberrations. Its just that they're covered.

No one's won from fourth does not prevent anyone from doing so as immediately someone does the algorithms,  narratives and predictions accommodate.

I still stand by my coin analogy as its applicable.  At any contest any number of variables comes into play. They can not be pre-ordained . The outcome is dependent upon 36 individuals at any given time... the influence of 6 others...the weather...and not forgetting...the ball.

How does statistical analysis integrate and interpret any of that. A fair question might be..does it have to ?. Does not overviews smooth over irregularities?  In a perfect environment the normal allowances prevail.  Is a game of footy so perfect, so precise, so normal that standard deviations can exist or be applied ? I don't  know, tbh.

I look at statistics..and associated predictions in the same light i do stock market charts..  they are actually very similar..especially in terms of how derived. Both work off history... but history is neither finite or constrained.  Anything can happen because so many variables are volatile.  Ive asked chartists to lay money down on their prescience...strangely none do . They just love their charts...their lines.. their hypothesis... and when something untoward,  unusual happens..their charts change..their narrative changes.. 

There's a classic line often... " no one's done that before ".    The strangeness of that to me is not that ut happened...but that supposedly it couldn't.  

The minute it does...all mathematics agrees. Why...because nothing is finite.

This year 4th can win. Why ? Well why not.

Knock yourselves out folks..do the table predictor...do the finals scenarios. Its entirely possible.  Actually not only possible...it may be the best place to finish....THIS year...for THESE teams.

 

I mean no disrepect but I have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, there are a whole lot of variables that are hard to predict. But you seem to be saying that just because there's unknown variables we just assume that predicted outcomes are toss of a coin. Are you saying that you can't make a prediction that Western Bulldogs are highly likely to beat West Coast Eagles tomorrow because we don't have complete information and sometimes teams win against the odds?

I agree that statistics aren't perfect, that any model trying to predict future results will be necessarily flawed, and that anomalous results do happen. I also accept that any team can win from any position if it's mathematically possible. I also accept that just because no side has won from 4th in the 23 years of the current system doesn't mean it can't or won't happen in the future. Statistics don't tell the whole story and should always be considered with a certain about of skepticism, but that doesn't mean you just ignore past evidence and predictions based on extrapolations into the future based on it.

[titan_uranus 24,631]

34 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

No, we go 0-2 and we can't fiinish higher than 4th. If we win 1 game more than Port we will definitely, not likely,  finish above them because of the percentage differential.

Correct. I muddled up my points - 0-2 is 4th so long as Carlton lose a game. 5th if they win both. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

9 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Correct. I muddled up my points - 0-2 is 4th so long as Carlton lose a game. 5th if they win both. 

Nightmare scenario!

[Demon17 5,084]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

In H&A we wear the clash against all three of our top 4 opponents. 

In a QF, or in a PF if we lose the QF, we will probably have to wear the clash. However, I don’t know if finals permit tweaks to the rules, because IMO we don’t clash with Collingwood (we didn’t wear a clash jumper against them until 2019 IIRC) and we shouldn’t clash with Brisbane (Carlton, Essendon and Adelaide don’t have to wear their clash jumpers against them).

The GF gets more confusing. If we make it against a side who finished above us on the ladder you’d expect the same clash rules to apply but the rules have been confusing over the years.

In 2017 Crows finished above Tiges at Round 22, and Tiges were made to wear away strip in GF

[Roost it far 7,425]

24 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

In 2017 Crows finished above Tiges at Round 22, and Tiges were made to wear away strip in GF

But a case could be made tgat their strips clash

[titan_uranus 24,631]

Very clear equation here. 

Win tomorrow, or else send Demonland MFCSS through the roof. 

[TRIGON 4,780]

14 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Very clear equation here. 

Win tomorrow, or else send Demonland MFCSS through the roof. 

Too late TU, too late, it's already here

Edited August 19, 2023 by TRIGON

[Dr. Gonzo 23,723]

4 hours ago, Demon17 said:

In 2017 Crows finished above Tiges at Round 22, and Tiges were made to wear away strip in GF

GF is a coin toss to decide "home" team isn't it?

[Roost it far 7,425]

Tomorrow is frightening 

[biggestred 4,820]

46 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

GF is a coin toss to decide "home" team isn't it?

Goes on higher ladder position 

[Demon17 5,084]

48 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

GF is a coin toss to decide "home" team isn't it?

No idea. But Dee's wore home strip in 2021. Finished above dogs that year.

[Demon17 5,084]

3 hours ago, TRIGON said:

Too late TU, too late, it's already here

Tonight is showing the flakiness of so called contenders. Blues cats and crows

We're going for top 4 finish 3rd year running. Seasoned leadership.

Will take care of business tomorrow. Just like other legitimate teams did today in giants and swans.

[Demon17 5,084]

4 hours ago, Roost it far said:

But a case could be made tgat their strips clash

That was the issue. So times as lower team had to change 

[John Demonic 5,526]

Lions aren't over the line yet. Saints playing well tonight and will be playing for a home final next week and to avoid elimination by percentage at worst.

Edited August 19, 2023 by John Demonic

[Macca 16,644]

Interesting stat from the past

Under the old final 4 system (which ran from 1931 until 1971) no team that finished 3rd ever won the premiership

Yet at least a couple of teams won the flag under that system from 4th position

And North won their first 2 premierships from 3rd place under the final 5 system (which came into operation in 1972)

Edited August 19, 2023 by Macca

[DubDee 24,440]

After all the [censored] we have been through sometimes you have to sit back and say we are a top 4 team. the last 3 years and probably the next 3. the Cats [censored] the bed after winning the flag. the bombers and WC are a rabble. 

just a note to enjoy the good times 

[Demon17 5,084]

Reasonable outcomes tonight for next week.

Swans finals now locked in. 

Giants must beat blues for finals.

They win our 4th spot not in peril.

Of course win tomorrow and Dee's all good irrespective 

[titan_uranus 24,631]

So we are down to 9. Dogs already have percentage over GWS and will get more tomorrow vs WC, which will see them move to 8th and GWS 9th. 

A Carlton win seals finals for St Kilda, Sydney, and the Dogs (unless they lose so badly to Geelong that somehow they go below GWS on percentage).

If GWS beat Carlton though, then any of St Kilda (v Brisbane, Sydney (v us) and the Dogs (v Geelong) can miss with a loss (although St Kilda would have to shed percentage).

6th also still up for grabs (5th too if Carlton lose).

[titan_uranus 24,631]

1 minute ago, Demon17 said:

Reasonable outcomes tonight for next week.

Swans finals now locked in. 

Giants must beat blues for finals.

They win our 4th spot not in peril.

Of course win tomorrow and Dee's all good irrespective 

Nope, not yet. If the Dogs beat WC and then Geelong, a Sydney loss to us will put them at risk of being passed by GWS who play after us. 

Sydney may be locked in by the time of our game if the Dogs have already lost to Geelong (or WC tomorrow…lol). But even if so, they will likely be playing for a home final.

[redandbluemakepurple 351]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

Under the old final 4 system (which ran from 1931 until 1971) no team that finished 3rd ever won the premiership

I understood only Richmond in 1967 from 4th and none from 3rd?

[redandbluemakepurple 351]

I don't mind playing away first final from 3rd.  It gets the away final out of the way while we still have a double chance.  Our interstate opponent (win or draw) goes into the other side of the draw.  We get a "home" prelim final against Collingwood if we both last.  If we lose this first final, we next get a home final against 5th to 8th.

[Macca 16,644]

3 hours ago, redandbluemakepurple said:

I understood only Richmond in 1967 from 4th and none from 3rd?

Carlton won from 4th in 1945, Essendon in 1949 & 1965 won from 4th and Richmond in 1969 won from 4th

And no team ever won from 3rd until we entered the final 5 era in 1972